In this lesson you are

expected to :
 State and Apply the laws of
probability in everyday life.
LS3MP-SP-PSF-AE/JHS-40
 Read/Interpret data presented in
a graph.
LS3MP-SP-PSF-JHS-8
Directions: Read the situation and answer the
questions below. Example is given below.

2/9 0.22 22%

3/9 0. 33 33%
 0.77 77%
7/9

4/9 0.44 44%

5/9 0. 55 55%
 Pre-Test
Read and answer the
questions found in
your worksheets.
Please answer the
questions carefully.
 Let’s see what you already know
Directions: Analyze the given
data on the next page and
answer the questions. Circle the
letter of your correct answer.
Let’s Learn!

What is Probability?

Probability -is a mathematical

term for the likelihood that
something will occur. It is the
ability to understand and estimate
the likelihood of any different
combination of outcomes.
Let’s Learn!
Why is probability important?

Probability is an essential tool in applied

mathematics and mathematical modeling.
It is vital to have an understanding of the
nature of chance and variation in life, in
order to be a well-informed, (or
“efficient”) citizen. One area in which this
is extremely important is in
understanding risk and relative risk.
Probability has something to do with a
chance. It is the study of things that
might happen or might not. We use it
most of the time, usually without
thinking of it. We don’t perform actual
probability problems in our daily life but
use subjective probability to determine
the course of action or any judgment.
Everything from the weather forecasting
to our chance of dying in an accident is a
probability.
Probability -is a mathematical term for the
likelihood that something will occur. It is the
ability to understand and estimate the
likelihood of any different combination of
outcomes.
 8 Real Life Examples of Probability

1. Weather Forcasting
-Meteorologists use a specific
tool and technique to predict
the weather forecast. They look
at all the other historical
database of the days, which
have similar characteristics of
temperature, humidity, and
pressure, etc. And determine
that on 60 out of 100 similar
days in the past, it had rained.
2. Batting Average in Cricket
-Batting average in Cricket
represents how many runs a
batsman would score before
getting out. For example, if a
batsman had scored 40 runs
out of 100 from boundaries in
the previous match. Then,
there is a chance that he
would score 40% of his runs
in the next match from
boundaries
3. Politics
-Many politics analysts
use the tactics of
probability to predict the
outcome of the election’s
results. For example, they
may predict a certain
political party to come
into power; based on the
results of exit polls.
4. Flipping a Coin or Dice
-Flipping a coin is one of the
most important events before the
start of the match. There is no
surety, either head will come or
not. Both head and tail have 1
out of 2, i.e., 50% chances to
occur. Hence, the probability of
getting the desired outcome is
0.5. Similarly, while playing
with dice, there are 1 out of 6
chances, that the required
number will come.
5. Insurance
-Probability helps in analyzing
the best plan of insurance which
suits you and your family the
most. For example, you are an
active smoker, and chances of
getting lungs disease are higher
in you. So, instead of choosing
an insurance scheme for your
vehicle or house, you may go for
your health insurance first,
because the chance of your
getting sick are higher.
6. Are We Likely to Die in
an Accident?
-Rates of car accidents have
increased rapidly in the past
decades. For example, if a city
has a population of one lakh,
and the death rate in car
accidents is 500. So, the
chance of being killed in a
crash is 500/1 lakh is 0.05%.
Thus, a person has a 0.05%
chance to die in a car accident.
7. Lottery Tickets
-Winning or losing a lottery is one
of the most interesting examples of
probability. In a typical Lottery
game, each player chooses six
distinct numbers from a particular
range. If all the six numbers on a
ticket match with that of the winning
lottery ticket, the ticket holder is a
Jackpot winner- regardless of the
order of the numbers. The
probability of this happening is 1 out
of 10.
8. Playing Cards
-There is a probability of
getting a desired card when we
randomly pick one out of 52.
For example, the probability of
picking up an ace in a 52 deck
of cards is 4/52; since there are
4 aces in the deck. The odds of
picking up any other card is
therefore 52/52 – 4/52 = 48/52.
 Probability is the branch of mathematics
concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an
event is to occur, or how likely it is that a
proposition is true. The probability of an event is a
number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking,
0 indicates impossibility of the event and 1
indicates certainty.

Let’s study the sample problem on the next page.

Let’s try to answer the situations that involves
probability.
2 Types of Probability

Theoretical and
Experimental Probability:
Theoretical Probability

When we use a formula to find the

probability of an event, we are finding the
theoretical probability. Theoretical
probability of an event is the number of
ways that an event can occur divided by
the total number of outcomes. Theoretical
probability is what we expect to happen.
Formula:

Example:
A bag contains 10 red marbles, 8 blue
marbles and 2 yellow marbles. Find the
theoretical probability of getting a blue
marble.
Solution:
 There are 8 blue marbles. Therefore, the number of
favorable outcomes = 8.
 There are a total of 20 marbles. Therefore, the
number of total outcomes = 20
Experimental Probability

-an event is the ratio of the number of times

an event occurs to the total number of trials
or times the activity is performed. We can
also find the probability of an event by doing
an experiment. When we do this, we are
finding experimental probability.
Experimental probability is what actually
happen when we try it out.
Formula:

Experimental probability is used in most real-life

situations when the probabilities cannot be
determined theoretically.
As more trials conducted, the experimental
probability generally gets closer to the
theoretical probability.
Example 1:
1. There are 6 possible ways for a die (singular of dice) to
turn up. What is the probability of rolling a 1? a 2? a 5
Example 2:
2. A bag contains 12 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 4
yellow marbles. Find the experimental probability of getting a
blue marble.
Solution:
 Take a marble from the bag.
 Record the color and return the marble in the bag.
 Repeat the process (at least 10 times).
 Count the number of times a blue marble was picked
(suppose it is 4).
 Using the formula we have,
 Activity Time
Using the worksheets given to you. Please answer the
different questions in Activity 1 & Activity 2. Read the
directions carefully and answer it seriously. Thank
You…!
 Post-Test
Using the worksheets given
to you. Please read and
answer the questions found
in the worksheets. Take time
to answer the activity.
_____________
ALS Teacher