MODULE 5: Probability

TIME ALLOTMENT: 6 hours (2 weeks)

I.OVERVIEW
Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to
happen, using the idea of probability.
Probability is the mathematical term for the likelihood that something will occur, such as
drawing an ace from a deck of cards or picking a green piece of candy from a bag of assorted colors.
You use probability in daily life to make decisions when you don't know for sure what the
outcome will be.
Most of the time, you won't perform actual probability problems, but you'll use subjective
probability to make judgment calls and determine the best course of action.

II.TARGETED COURSE LEARNING OUTCOME

S3: Students will solve for the probability of events using dice, coins and deck of playing cards

III. TARGETED TOPIC LEARNING OUTCOME

1. The students can differentiate events of likelihood.
2. The students can determine the probability of different events.
3. The students can use or apply probability in daily life to make decisions.

PROBABILITY

How likely something is to happen. Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can
say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability.

Tossing a Coin

When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes:

 heads (H) or
 tails (T)
We say that the probability of the coin landing H is ½. And the probability of the coin landing T is ½
 Throwing Dice 

When a single die is thrown, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

The probability of any one of them is 1/6
Probability 
In general:
number of wayscan happen
Probability of an event happening = total numbers of outcomes  
Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

Probability says that heads have a ½ chance, so we can expect 50 Heads.

But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or 55 heads ... or anything really, but in most cases it
will be a number near 50.
Some words have special meaning in Probability:
Experiment: a repeatable procedure with a set of possible results.
Example: Throwing dice

We can throw the dice again and again, so it is repeatable.

The set of possible results from any single throw is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Outcome: A possible result of an experiment.

Example: Getting a "6"

Sample Space: all the possible outcomes of an experiment.

Example: choosing a card from a deck

There are 52 cards in a deck (not including Jokers)

So the Sample Space is all 52 possible cards: {Ace of Hearts, 2 of Hearts,
etc... }
The Sample Space is made up of Sample Points:
Sample Point: just one of the possible outcomes
Example: Deck of Cards

 the 5 of Clubs is a sample point

 the King of Hearts is a sample point
"King" is not a sample point. There are 4 Kings, so that is 4 different sample

points.
Example: Throwing dice

There are 6 different sample points in the sample space.

 
Event: one or more outcomes of an experiment
Example Events:

An event can be just one outcome:

 Getting a Tail when tossing a coin
 Rolling a "5"
An event can include more than one outcome:
 Choosing a "King" from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Kings)
 Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6)
Hey, let's use those words, so you get used to them:
Example: Alex wants to see how many times a "double" comes up when throwing

2 dice.

The Sample Space is all possible Outcomes (36 Sample Points):

{1,1} {1,2} {1,3} {1,4} ... {6,3} {6,4} {6,5} {6,6}
The Event Alex is looking for is a "double", where both dice have the same
number. It is made up of these 6 Sample Points:
{1,1} {2,2} {3,3} {4,4} {5,5} and {6,6} = 6/36
 
These are Alex's Results:
Is it a
Experiment
Double?

{3,4} No

{5,1} No

{2,2} Yes

{6,3} No

... ...

After 100 Experiments, Alex has 19 "double" Events ... is that close to what

you would expect?
Probability is the ratio of the number of ways a specified event can occur to the total
number of equally likely events that can occur.

In these lessons, we will learn

• how to draw probability tree diagrams for independent events (with

replacement)
• how to draw probability tree diagrams for dependent events (without
replacement)

Different Kinds of Probability

Updated November 13, 2018
By Jennifer VanBaren

https://sciencing.com/examples-of-real-life-probability-12746354.html
Look up at the sky. Will it rain tomorrow? Cues from the environment may lead you to
make an educated guess about tomorrow's weather. A meteorologist has access to a
great deal of statistical data to make an even more informed prediction about the
probability of rain or shine, and sophisticated weather models might be even more
precise. Whether it's the weather or the next roll of the dice, no one knows for sure
what the future will bring. But we can use various types of probability strategies to
come up with our best guess.
For a refresher course on the basics of probability, view the video below:
Classic Probability
The classical approach to probability often involves coin tossing or rolling dice. It is
calculated by listing all of the possible outcomes of the activity and recording the
actual occurrences. For example, if you are tossing a coin, the possible outcomes are
either heads or tails. If you toss the coin 10 times, you record which outcome occurred
each time you tossed the coin.
Experimental Probability
Experimental probability is based on the number of possible outcomes by the total
number of trials. When tossing a coin, the total possible outcomes are two, heads and
tails. The total number of trials is determined by the total times the coin is flipped. If
the coin is flipped 50 times and it lands on heads 28 times, then the theoretical
probability is 28/50.
Theoretical Probability
Theoretical probability is an approach that bases the possible probability on the
possible chances of something happen. For example, if you want to know the
theoretical probability that a die will land on a number “3” when rolled, you must
determine how many possible outcomes there are. On a die, there are six numbers,
offering six possibilities. To land on a three, you have a one-in-six, or 1:6, chance of it
landing on a “3”.
Subjective Probability
Subjective probability is based on a person’s own personal reasoning and judgment. It
is the probability that the outcome a person is expecting will actually occur. There are
no formal calculations for subjective probability but instead it is based on a person’s
own knowledge and feelings. For example, during a sport’s game, a fan of one team
may state that the team they are rooting for will win. The person bases his decision on
facts or opinions regarding the game, the two teams and the likelihood of the team
winning.

Probability Tree Diagram

What is a Probability Tree Diagram?

We can construct a probability tree diagram to help us solve some probability
problems.

A probability tree diagram shows all the possible events. The first event is
represented by a dot. From the dot, branches are drawn to represent all
possible outcomes of the event. The probability of each outcome is written on
its branch.
Example:
A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball at random
from the bag and replaces it back in the bag. He mixes the balls in the
bag and then picks another ball at random from the bag.
a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.
b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks:
i) two black balls
ii) a black ball in his second draw
Solution:

a) Check that the probabilities in the last column add up to 1.

b) i) To find the probability of getting two black balls, first locate the B
branch and then follow the second B branch. Since these are independent
events we can multiply the probability of each branch.
 ii) There are two outcomes where the second ball can be black.
Either (B, B) or (W, B)

From the probability tree diagram, we get:

P(second ball black)

= P(B, B) or P(W, B)
= P(B, B) + P(W, B)

BASIC PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY

A. Probability values always run between zero and one, inclusive.

A zero probability denotes impossibility and a probability value of one implies certainty. As the
probability value approaches zero, the more remote the possibility of occurrence of the event.
When the probability value increases and approaches one, the more certain is the likelihood of
occurrence of the event.
 B. P(A) + P(A’) = 1 implies that the sum of the probabilities of complementary events is equal to the
maximum probability.

Example: If the chance of rain is 0.60 (60%), then the probability that it won’t rain is 0.40 (40%).

Example: A study showed that 650 of the 900 Filipinos do not approve that AMG is a good president.
What is the maximum probability that a Filipino may approve of AMG? Answer: 5/18
650/900 = 65/900 =13/18 do not approve
(900-650) = 250/900 = 5/18 may approve

Example: If the odds of passing Statistics this semester is 2:7, what is the probability that a student will
pass Statistics? What is the probability that a student will not pass Statistics?
7-2 = 5/7 will pass the Stat 2/7 = 28.57%

C. General Addition Rule: If we are interested in the possibility of the occurrence of either one of two events
A and B, the probability of A or B or both to happen is given by
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

A card is drawn from a deck. What is the probability that it is red or a queen?

A card is drawn from a deck. What is the probability that it is red or a face?

In a bar, the probability that a person drinks and smokes is 0.7; the probability that he drinks is 0.8;
the probability that he smokes is 0.6. What is the probability that he neither drinks nor smokes?

D. Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events: If A and B can not happen at the same time or
have nothing in common, then P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
1. The odds that a student gets an A in class is 1 is to 6; the probability that a student gets a
B in class is 0.19. What is the probability that a student gets an A or B?

2. A card is drawn from a deck. What is the probability that it is a king or a queen?

E. Conditional Probability: The probability that B will happen on the condition that A has occurred
is given by

P( A∩B)
P(B A) = P(A)

Note: This is especially relevant in cases when a person obtains partial information of an
uncontrollable situation (A) regarding the occurrence of event B, either real or perceived. As an
illustration, consider a woman who is about to give birth. There is a possibility that she will
experience a normal delivery or an abnormal delivery (abortion, CS, …). As an aftermath, the child
may or may not have a defect. The table below shows a summary of the outcomes:

A B

Normal delivery Child has no defect

POSSIBLE SITUATIONS Child has a defect

Abnormal delivery Child has no defect

Child has a defect

 P(B A) may be interpreted as
1. What is the probability that the child has no defect if it was a normal delivery?
2. What is the probability that the child has a defect if it was a normal delivery?
3. What is the probability that the child has no defect if it was an abnormal delivery?
4. What is the probability that the child has a defect if it was an abnormal delivery?

1. A card is drawn from a deck and we are told that it is red. What is the probability that it is less
than 10 (ace included)?
2. A card is drawn from a deck and it is told that it is a king. What is the probability that it is black?
3. A card is drawn from a deck and it is told that it is black. What is the probability that it is a king?
4. In a class of 50 students, 24 studied math, 35 studied science and 14 studied both subjects. If a
student is selected at random from this class, what is the probability that he took math? He took
science? He took both subjects? He took math or science? He took neither subject? He took math
given he took science? He took science given he took math? He did not take science given he did
not take math? He took math given he did not take science?

F. Multiplication Rule: If we are interested in looking at the possibility that two things A and B will happen at
the same time or in succession, the probability is given by
P(A  B) = P(A)  P(BA)

1. A bag contains 8 white and 4 black balls. If two balls are drawn from the bag without
replacement, what is the probability that
a. both are white? b. both are black?

c. the colors are the same? d. the colors are different?

G. Multiplication Rule for Independent Events: If the outcome B is not influenced by A, therefore B is
independent from A and this results to P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)
1. A bag contains 8 white and 4 black balls. If two balls are drawn from the bag without
replacement, what is the probability that

a. both are white? b. both are black?

c. the colors are the same? d. the colors are different?

2. The probability that Bing will pass statistics is 0.7; the probability that Bong will pass statistics is
0.4. What is the probability that

a. Both will pass statistics? b. Only Bing will pass statistics?

c. Only Bong will pass statistics?

Example:
Carlos plays college soccer. He makes a goal 65% of the time he shoots. Carlos is going to
attempt two goals in a row in the next game. A = the event Carlos is successful on his first
attempt. P(A) = 0.65. B = the event Carlos is successful on his second attempt. P(B) = 0.65.
Carlos tends to shoot in streaks. The probability that he makes the second goal GIVEN that
he made the first goal is 0.90.
1. What is the probability that he makes both goals?
2. What is the probability that Carlos makes either the first goal or the second goal?
3. Are A and B independent?
4. Are Aand B mutually exclusive?

Solution:
1. The problem is asking you to find P(A AND B) = P(B AND A). Since P(B|A) = 0.90: P(B AND A)
= P(B|A) P(A) = (0.90)(0.65) = 0.585Carlos makes the first and second goals with probability
0.585.
 2. The problem is asking you to find P(A OR B).
P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A AND B) = 0.65 + 0.65 – 0.585 = 0.715Carlos makes either the
first goal or the second goal with probability 0.715.
3. No, they are not, because P(B AND A) = 0.585.
P(B)P(A) = (0.65)(0.65) = 0.4230.423 ≠ 0.585 = P(B AND A)So, P(B AND A) is not equal
to P(B)P(A).
4. No, they are not because P(A and B) = 0.585. To be mutually exclusive, P(A AND B) must equal
zero.

PROBABILITY AND COUNTING RULES

Example: Find the probability of getting a flush (including a straight flush) when 5 cards are dealt
from a deck of 52 cards.
Solution:
A flush consists of 5 cards of the same suit. That is, either 5 clubs, or 5 spades or 5 hearts or 5
diamonds, and includes straight flushes.
Since there are 13 cars in a suit, there are C(13,5) ways to get a flush in one suit and there are 4
suits, so, 4 C(13,5) = 5148.
There are C(52,5) = 2598960 ways of selecting 5 cards.
P(flush) = 5148/5148/2598960 = 0.002 which is about one chance in 500.

Activity:
Determine the probability of the events using appropriate formula. Show complete
solution.

1.  A coin is thrown 3 times. What is the probability that at least one head is obtained?
2.  Find the probability of getting a numbered card when a card is drawn from the pack
of 52 cards.
3.  There are 5 green 7 red balls. Two balls are selected one by one without
replacement. Find the probability that first is green and second is red.
4. One (1) card is drawn at random from the pack of 52 cards.
(i) Find the Probability that it is an honor card.
(ii) It is a face card.
5. Two cards are drawn from the pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that both are
diamonds or both are kings.
6. Three dice are rolled together. What is the probability as getting at least one '4'?
7. A problem is given to three persons P, Q, R whose respective chances of solving it
are 2/7, 4/7, 4/9 respectively. What is the probability that the problem is solved?
8. What is the probability of getting a sum of 22 or more when four dice are thrown?
9. Two dice are thrown together. What is the probability that the number obtained on
one of the dice is multiple of number obtained on the other dice?
10. The blood groups of 200 people is distributed as follows: 50 have type A blood, 65
have B blood type, 70 have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood. If a person
from this group is selected at random, what is the probability that this person has O
blood type?
11. Bag A contains 10 marbles of which 2 are red and 8 are black. Bag B contains 12
marbles of which 4 are red and 8 are black. A ball is drawn at random from each bag.
a) Draw a probability tree diagram to show all the outcomes the experiment.
b) Find the probability that:
(i) both are red.
(ii) both are black.
(iii) one black and one red.
(iv) at least one red.

Note:

For more examples about the topic probability please open the links below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-1VvourLsA&feature=youtu.be
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/introstats1/chapter/two-basic-rules-of-probability/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sY3ZRxhBaM - How Is Probability Used in Real Life?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkidyDQuupA- Introduction to Probability, Basic Overview - Sample

Space, & Tree Diagrams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf0vL6ZLM1A - Solving Probability Word Problems Using
Probability Formulas

https://stattrek.com/probability/probability-rules.aspx - Rules of Probability

https://www.onlinemathlearning.com/probability-tree-diagrams.html - Probability Tree Diagrams