PROBABILITY THEORY

Definitions and basic concepts:

Cont….

1. Probability theory: is the branch of mathematics

that studies the possible outcomes of given events
together with the outcomes’ relative likelihood and
distributions.
▪ Probability also involves the measures of chances.
2. Random experiment:
Random experiment is one whose results depend on chance, that is the result cannot be
predicted. Tossing of coins, throwing of dice are some examples of random experiments.
Cont…

3. Trial: Performing a random experiment is called a trial.

4. Outcomes: The results of a random experiment are called its outcomes
 For example: When two coins are tossed the possible outcomes are HH, HT,TH, TT.
5. Event: An outcome or a combination of outcomes of a random experiment is called an
event.
 For example tossing of a coin is a random experiment and getting a head or tail is an
event.
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6.Sample space: Each conceivable outcome of an experiment is called a sample point.

 The totality of all sample points is called a Sample Space.

 Or Samples Space: is a set of all expected outcomes from the Experiment.
 Sample space is abbreviated as S.
 For example, when a coin is tossed, the sample space is S = { H, T }. H and T are the
sample points of the sample space S.
Cont….

7.Complementary events: The event ‘ A occurs’ and the event ‘ A does not occur’ are
called complementary events to each other. The event ‘ A does not occur’ is denoted by A' .
For example in throwing a die, the event of not getting even numbers is { 1, 3, 5 }, that is
A’={1,3,5}

8. Equally likely events: Two or more events are said to be equally likely if each one of
them has an equal chance of occurring. For example in tossing of a coin, the event of
getting a head and the event of getting a tail are equally likely events.
Cont…

9. Exhaustive events: Events are said to be exhaustive when their totality includes all the
possible outcomes of a random experiment. For example, while throwing a die, the possible
outcomes are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and hence the number of cases is 6.
▪ If E1, E2,….En Are events of a sample space S. And if EIUE2U…UEn=UEi=S
▪ The E1, E2, …En are called exhaustive events.
Examples
1. If a fair die is rolled once. Find
(a) The sample space of an experiment
(b) The set of event for the occurrence of an even number
(c) The set of event that an even number does not occur.
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Example 2
In an experiment of selecting an even number less than 20. Find an Event set for the
multiple of 3.
solution
Let E denote an event of multiple of 3
Then, the sample space for the experiment, S={2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18}
Therefore, the event for the multiple of 3 is E={6,12,18}
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Example 3
Find an event of not selecting an even number from a set of counting numbers less than 9.
Solution
Let E’ denotes an event of not selecting an even number.
The sample space for the experiment is, S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8}
Thus, the event set for even number is, E={2,4,6,8}
Therefore, The event of not selecting an even number is E’={1,3,5,7}
Count...

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
probability is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of all
possible outcomes.
If there are n total possible outcomes in a sample space S, and m of those are favorable for
an event E, then probability of event E is given as;
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
P(E)=
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑠
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𝑛(𝐸) 𝑚
P(E)= that is P(E)=
𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛

Examples:
Find the probability of getting a 3 or 5 while throwing a die.
solution
Given, sample space(s)= {1,2,3,4,5,6}
n(s)=6
Event(E)= {3,5}
n(E)=2
Cont…
𝑛(𝐸)
From, P(E)=
𝑛(𝑆)
2
P(E)= 6
P(E)= 0.333
2. A certain factory manufactured torch bulbs, if 5% of the manufactured torch bulbs were
defective. What is the probability that a bulb from the factory will be non-defective?

3. A fair coin is tossed once. Find the probability that a head will occur.
solution
Cont……

4. A piece of chalk is picked at random from a box containing 5 identical pieces, two of
which are red and three are white. Find the pr0bability that the piece of chalk picked is red.
solution

5. Find the probability that a king appears in a drawing a single card from an ordinary deck
of 52 cards.
solution
Cont….

Axioms of probability:
 Let S be a sample space and A be an event in S and P(A)
is the probability satisfying the following axioms:
1) The probability of any event ranges from zero to one.
e.i 0≤P(A)≤ 1
2) The probability of the entire space is 1.
i.e P(S) = 1
3) If A1, A2,… is a sequence of mutually exclusive events
in
S, then P (A1 U A2 U …) = P(A1) + P(A2) +...
Cont…

Examples;
1.The probability of selecting a red ball from a box containing red ball and green ball is ¼.
Find the probability of not selecting a red ball.
2. A survey conducted at a certain maternity ward showed that 60% of the children born
were females. Find the probability that a child born in that ward is a male.
3. Find the probability that a number selected at random from the numbers; -4,-2,0,2,4 and
16 will be a solution set of the equation 𝑦 2 − 2𝑦 − 8 = 0
Cont….

OPERATIONS WITH EVENTS

1.PROBABILITY OF COMBINED EVENTS
If A and B are any combined events from a sample space S, then
P(AꭒB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AnB)
Examples
1) If P(A)=1/4, P(B)=1/3, and P(AnB)=1/6. Find P(AuB)
Cont….

2. A Student picked a pair of socks out of his drawer without looking in it. If he has 3 pairs
of black socks, 4 pairs of brown socks, 3 pairs of black sport socks, and 5 pairs of white
sport socks. Find the probability that the student will pick a pair black socks or a pair of
sport socks.
Cont…

2. MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive, when the occurrence of any one
event excludes the occurrence of the other event. Mutually exclusive events cannot occur
together.
Examples
1.when a coin is tossed, either the head or the tail will come up. Therefore the occurrence
of the head completely excludes the occurrence of the tail. Thus getting head or tail in
tossing of a coin is a mutually exclusive event.
Cont…

2. When two students entering the same race, the event that one student wins
and the wins too, can not happen together.
▪ For two mutual exclusive events A and B, we have;
P(AꭒB)=P(A)+P(B)

▪ For mutual exclusive events, P(AnB)=0, Since the events can not occur together.
Cont…

Examples
1. The probability that team A will win the football league is 1/5, and the probability that
team B will win is 1/7. What is the probability that a team will win the football
league?
2. There are two prizes. The probability that Asha will win the first or second prize are
1/10 and 1/8 respectively. Find the probability that she will win one the prizes.
Cont…

3. INDEPENDENT EVENTS
 Events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the others.
 For example
In the experiment of tossing a fair coin, the occurrence of the event ‘ head’ in the first toss
is independent of the occurrence of the event ‘ head’ in the second toss, third toss and
subsequent tosses.
▪ When two events A and B are independent, the probability of both to occurs is;
Cont…

P(A and B)= P(A)x P(B) Or P(AnB)= P(A) + P(B)

Examples
1. Given that P(A)= 0.6, and P(B)= 0.4 , find P(AnB) If A and B are independent
events.
2. A fair coin is tossed and a fair six sided die is rolled. Find the probability of
landing on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die.
Cont…

QUIZ 1 (5 Marks)
Samira and Hassan are competing for a managerial post at a certain company. Their
probabilities of getting the post are 0.5 and 0.4 respectively. Find the probability that the
company will get a manager.
Cont…

TYPES OF PROBABILITY
1. CLASSICAL PROBABILITY: Is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an
experiment are equal likely. Using the classical view point, the probability of an event
happening is computed by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number
of the possible outcomes.
▪ The probability is given by:
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
Probability of an Event, P(E)=
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑆𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

𝑛(𝐸)
▪ P(E)=
𝑛(𝑆)
Cont…

2. Empirical Probability: refers to the probability that is based on historical data.

In other words empirical probability illustrates the like hood of an event
occurring based on historical data.
▪ Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an vent being in a given
class is;
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠
P(E) =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑓
P(E)=
𝑛
Cont…

▪ Here the frequency of the class is simply the number of times the event
occurs whereas total frequency of the distribution is the total number of the
trial.
▪ RULES OF PROBABILITIES
1. ADDITION LAW OF PROBABILITY
I. P(AUB)= P(A)+ P(B) (for mutually exclusive events)
II. P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B)-P(AnB) (For Combined events)
III. P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)-P(AnB)-P(AnC)-P(BnC) + P(AnBnC)
CONT…

▪ The third formula is used when there are three or more events.
2. Multiplication rule of probabilities
▪ P(AnB) = P(A)X P(B) ( This is the Special rule of Multiplication for two
independent events).
COMBINED EVENTS USING TREE DIAGRAMS AND TABLES
Examples
1. Three coins are tossed simultaneously Find the probability that
(i) no head (ii) one head (i ii) two heads
(iv) at least two heads
Cont…

2. When two dice are thrown, find the probability of getting doublets (Same number on
both dice)

3. A card is drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. What is the probability
that it is
(i) an ace
(ii) a diamond card
Cont…

4. A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 5 green, 6 red, and 4 yellow balls.
Determine the probability that the ball drawn is
(i) green
(ii) Red
(iii) yellow
(iv) Green or Red
(v) not yellow.
Cont…

5. Two dice are thrown, what is the probability of getting the sum being 8 or the sum being
10?

6. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability that the sum being 6 or same
number on both dice.
Cont…

7. Two persons A and B appeared for an interview for a job. The probability of selection of
A is 1/3 and that of B is 1/2. Find the probability that
(i) both of them will be selected
(ii) only one of them will be selected
(iii) none of them will be selected
Cont…

8. A test paper containing 10 problems is given to three students A,B,C. It is considered that
student A can solve 60% problems, student B can solve 40% problems and student C can
solve 30% problems. Find the probability that the problem chosen from the test paper will
be solved by all the three students.
Cont…

QUIZ 2 ( 5 MARKS)
A box containing 5 green balls and 3 red
colour balls. Find the probability of selecting
3 green colour balls one by one
(i) without replacement
(ii) with replacement
Cont….
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:

❖ The occurrence of some events may depend entirely on

the occurrence of other events.
❖ This means that an event occurs only when another
event has occurred.
❖ If A and B are two events, not necessarily from the same
experiment, then the conditional probability that A
occurs, given that B has already occurs, is written P(A,
given B) or P(A/B)
Cont…
❖ That is
P(An B)
P(A/B) = Provide that P(B) > 0
P(B)
❖ Or probability of B, given that A has already occurs, is
written P(B, given A) or P(B/A)
That is,
P(An B)
P(B/A) = Provide that P(A) > 0
P(A)
EXAMPLES
1. Events A and B are such that P(A)= 0.45, P(B)= 0.35
and P(AꭒB)=0.7 . Find P(A/B). Explain why event A and
B are not independent.
2. X and Y are two events such that P(X/Y)= 0.4, P(Y)=
0.25 and P(X)=0.2 . Find
a) P(Y/X)
b) P(XnY)
c) P(XꭒY)
 Cont…
3. A fair die is rolled once and the score obtained is an odd
number. Determine the probability that it is a prime number.
4. Suppose that 70% of the cars on a used car lot have air
conditioning (X), 40% have a CD player (Y) and 20% of
the cars have both air conditioning and CD player. What is
the probability that a car has a CD player, given that it has
AC?
5. A box contains 5 red and 4 white marbles. Two marbles
are drawn successively from the box without replacement
and it is noted that the second one is white. What is the
probability that the first is also white?
MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITIES
In general, the rule of multiplicative states that for two
events X and Y, the joint probability that both events will
happen is obtained by multiplying the probability that event
X will happen by the conditional probability of event Y
occurring
❖ P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) ・ P(Y/X),
or
❖ P(X ∩ Y) = P(Y) ・ P(X/Y).
Cont…

TOTAL PROBABILITY
P(X) = P(X ∩ Y1) + P(X ∩ Y2) + ・ ・ ・ + P(X ∩ Yn),
= P(Y1) ・ P(X/Y1) + P(Y2) ・ P(X/Y2)+ ・ ・ ・ +
P(Yn) ・ P(X/Yn)
EXAMPLE1
A consulting form is bidding for two jobs, one with
each of two large multinational corporations. The
company executives estimate that the probability of
obtaining the consulting job with firm X, event X is
0.45. The executive also feel that if the company
should get the job which form X, then there is a
0.90 probability that form Y will also give the
company the consulting job. What are the
company’s chances of getting both jobs?
 EXAMPLE 2
Three persons A, B and C are being considered for
the appointment as the chairman for a company
whose chance of being selected for the post are in the
proportion 4:2:3 respectively. The probability that A,
if selected will introduce democratization in the
company structure is 0.3 the corresponding
probabilities for B and C doing the same are
respectively 0.5 and 0.8. What is the probability that
democratization would be introduced in the
company?
 EXAMPLE 3
Two sets of candidates are competing for the
positions on the Board of directors of a
company. The probabilities that the first and
second sets will win are 0.6 and 0.4
respectively. If the first set wins, the probability
of introducing a new product is 0.8, and the
corresponding probability if the second set wins
is 0.3. What is the probability that the new
product will be introduced?
 BAYES’ THEOREM

❖ The concept of conditional probability discussed earlier

takes into account information about the occurrence of
one event to predict the probability of another event.
This concept can be extended to revise probabilities
based on new information and determine the probability
that a particular effect was due to specific cause. The
procedure for revising these probabilities is known as
Bayes theorem.
❖ This Principle was given by Thomas Bayes in 1763.
 BAYES’ THEOREM

❖ Let A1, A2, A3, …….Ai, ……An be a set of n mutually

exclusive and collectively exhaustive events and P(A1),
P(A2) …,P(An) are their corresponding probabilities. If
B is another event such that P(B) is not zero and the
priori probabilities P(B|Ai) i =1,2…, n are also known.
❖ That is, Bayes’ theorem is an equation that relates two
conditional probabilities P(A/B) and P(B/A).
P(BnAi)
❖ P(Ai | B) =
P(B)
Cont…
P(BnAi)
❖ P(Ai/B) =
P(A1).P(B/A1)+P(A2).P(B/A2)+⋯+P An .P(B/An

P(Ai).P(B/Ai)
❖ P(Ai/B) =
P(A1).P(B/A1)+P(A2).P(B/A2)+⋯+P An .P(B/An
Cont…
P(A1).P(B/A1)
❖ P(A1/B) = (When you
P(A1).P(B/A1)+P(A2).P(B/A2)
have given two events)
or
P(A1).P(B/A1)
P(A1/ B) =
P(A1).P(B/A1)+P(A2).P(B/A2)+ P A3 P(B/A3
(When you have given three events).
 EXAMPLE 1
In a bolt factory machines A1,A2,A3
manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40%
of the total output. Of these 5, 4, and 2 percent
are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random
from the product and is found to be defective.
What is the probability that it was
manufactured by machine A2?
 EXAMPLE 2
A company has two plants to manufacture motorbikes. Plant I
manufactures 80 percent of motor bikes, and plant II
manufactures 20 percent. At Plant I 85 out of 100 motorbikes
are rated standard quality or better. At plant II only 65 out of
100 motorbikes are rated standard quality or better.
(i) What is the probability that the motorbike, selected at
random came from plant I. if it is known that the
motorbike is of standard quality?
(ii) What is the probability that the motorbike came from plant
II if it is known that the motor bike is of standard quality?
 QUESTION FOR DISCUSSION
The chances of X, Y and Z becoming
managers of a certain company are 4:2:3. The
probabilities that bonus scheme will be
introduced if X, Y and Z become managers
are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.4 respectively. If the bonus
scheme has been introduce, what is the
probability that Z is appointed as the
manager?