CO2A Probability

MATH03
Statistics and Probability

PROBABILITY
COURSE OUTCOME 2
Objectives
At the end of the lesson, the student should be able to :
• List the sample space of an event.
• Familiarize the different interpretations of probability.
• Compute the probability of an event.
• Familiarize the rules of probability.
• Calculate the probability of simple event using the rules of probability.
• Compute the probability of compound events using the rules
of probability.
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Introduction to
Most things in life have uncertain outcomes.
For example, will you pass Math subjects that you are taking in this
quarter?
Suppose your parents recently opened a new business, will it be

successful?
Will the Pandemic end this year?
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Introduction to
When you toss a coin, you may get a head or a tail.
The act of tossing a coin is an example of a statistical experiment.

The result “head” or “tail” is called an outcome.
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Introduction to
Each of the two observations, head or tail, constitute the sample
space for this experiment.
An experiment is a process that, when performed, results in one

and only one of many observations. These observations are called
the outcomes of the experiment. The collection of all outcomes for
an experiment is called a sample space.
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Examples of Experiment, Outcomes, and
Sample Spaces
TOSSING A COIN ROLLING A DIE
𝑆 = ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑, 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
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Sample Spaces
ROLLING TWO DICE
DIE
𝑆=
DIE
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Sample Spaces
GENDER OF THREE CHILDREN
BBB GGG
BBG GGB
BGB GBG
GBB BGG
𝑆 = {𝐵𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐺}
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TREE DIAGRAM
• a device consisting of line

segments emanating from a
starting point and also from
the outcome point
• used to determine all possible

outcomes of a probability
experiment
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Exercise
1. Draw the tree diagram for the experiment of tossing a coin
once. This experiment has two possible outcomes: Head and
Tail Therefore, the sample space is given by
Sample space= {H,T} where H=head and T=tail
Head H
Tail T
Outcomes
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Exercise
2. Draw a tree diagram from an experiment of tossing a coin twice.
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
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Excercise
3. Draw a tree diagram of a sample space of a family with 2 children
First Child Second Child
BB
B
B
G BG
B GB
G
G
GG
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Even
An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.
For example, in two tosses of a coin the event E of getting exactly
one tail is
𝐸 = {𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇}
Another example, let E= event of getting exactly 2 tails in 3 tosses

of a coin. Then the event is
𝐸 = {𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇}
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Even
Simple event
An event that includes one and only one of the final outcomes for an
experiment is called a simple event and is usually denoted by 𝐸𝑖
Compound event
A compound event is a collection of more than one outcome for an
experiment
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EXAMP
1. Suppose we randomly select two workers from a company
and observe whether the worker selected each time is a man
or a woman.
a. Draw a tree diagram
b. Illustrate the event on selecting a man or a woman. Is
this simple or compound event?
c. Illustrate that the event on selecting at most one man
is selected. Is this simple or compound event?
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EXAMP

or a woman.
a. Draw a tree dia gra
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EXAMP

or a woman.
b. Illustrate the event on selecting a man or a woman. Is
this simple or compound event?
Each of the final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, and WW)
for this experiment is a simple event. These four events can
be denoted by 𝐸1, 𝐸2 , 𝐸3, 𝐸4 , respectively. Thus,
𝐸1 = 𝑀𝑀 , 𝐸2 𝑀𝑊 , 𝐸3 𝑊𝑀 , 𝐸4 = {𝑊𝑊}
= =
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Exercise
or a woman.
Here at most one man means one or no man is selected.
Thus, event A will occur if either no man or one man is
selected.
Hence, the event is given by
𝐴 = 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 = {𝑀𝑊, 𝑊𝑀, 𝑊𝑊}
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Exercise
or a woman.
Because event A contains more than one outcome, it is a
compound event. The diagram gives a graphic presentation of
compound A
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Probabilit
Probability can be defined as the chance of an event
occurring. It can be used to quantify what the “odds” are
that a specific event will occur. It is a measure of how likely
an event is to occur.
Today there is a 60% chance of rain.
The odds of winning the lottery are a million to one
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USES OF PROBABILITY
PLAYING GAMES
OF CHANCE
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USES OF PROBABILITY
INSURANCE INVESTMENTS
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USES OF PROBABILITY
BUSINESS JOB HUNTING

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USES OF PROBABILITY
WEATHER FORECASTING
ELECTION
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USES OF PROBABILITY
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Properties of
There are two important properties of probability that we should always
remember.
1. The probability of an event always lies in the range 0 to 1.
0 ≤ 𝑃𝐴 ≤ 1
2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events (or final

outcomes) for an experiment is always 1.
෍ 𝑃 𝐸𝑖 = 𝐸1 + 𝐸2 + 𝐸3 + ⋯ = 1.0
𝑃 𝑃 𝑃
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Exampl
1. If you enrol in Basic Calculus subject, you may either pass or
fail. The probabilities of these two events must add to 1.0, that
is
𝑃 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠 + 𝑃 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙 = 1.0
2. When you toss a coin, either you get head or tail.

𝑃 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 + 𝑃 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 = 1.0
3. For one game of football by a professional team.

𝑃 𝑤𝑖𝑛 + 𝑃 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒 + 𝑃(𝑡𝑖𝑒) = 1.0
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Probabilit
Three basic interpretations of probability
•Classical probability
•Relative frequency (Empirical) probability
•Subjective probability
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Classical
Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the
numerical probability that an event will happen and assumes that
all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.
P E   n  E  # of desired outcomes
n  S  Total # of possible outcomes
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ROUNDING OFF RULES
Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or
rounded to two or three decimal places
When the probability of an event is extremely small, it is permissible to round the

decimal to the first nonzero digit after the point.
Example:
0.0000587 would be 0.00006
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Example 1
If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the
three children are girls.
𝑆 = {𝐵𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺}
Three outcomes {𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵} have two girls.
The probability of having two of three children being girls is:
𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 2 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠 3

𝑃 2 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑜𝑓 3 = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 8
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Example 2
Find the probability of obtaining an even number in one roll of a die
𝐴 = 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 = 2,4,6
#𝑜𝑓𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 3 1
𝑃𝐴 = = = 𝑜𝑟 0.5
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 #𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6 2
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Example : 3
If two dice ar e rolled one time, find the of getting a sum of 7

or 11.
P sum of 7 or 11  6  2 2
36 9
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Try
Lawrence is the captain of his track team. The team is deciding on a color
and all eight members wrote their choice down on equal size cards. If
Lawrence picks one card at random, what is the probability that he will
pick blue?
blue blue
green
green
black
blue
red
black
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Try
Lawrence is the captain of his track team. The team is deciding on a color
and all eight members wrote their choice down on equal size cards. If
Lawrence picks one card at random, what is the probability that he will
pick blue?
𝑃 = 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 blue blue

𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 green
3 green
black
= blue
8 red 𝟖
𝟑 black
=
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Try
or
0.375
or
37.5%
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Complementary Events
When a die is rolled, for instance,

𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
The event E of getting odd number consists of
1, 3 and 5.
The event of NOT GETTING an odd number is the complement of event E,

and it consists of
2, 4, and 6
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Rule for Complementary Events
ത𝐸
𝑃 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸)
or ത𝐸
𝑃𝐸 =1−𝑃
or ത𝐸
𝑃𝐸 + 𝑃 =1
Stated in words, the rule is: If the probability of an event or the probability of its complement is known, then the
other can be found by subtracting the probability from 1.
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Complementary Events
SIMPLE PROBABILITY COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
𝑃(𝐸) 𝑃(𝐸)
𝑃(𝑆)=1 𝑃ത
𝐸
= 1 − 𝑃(𝐸)
𝑃 ത𝐸
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Exampl
Examples of an Event and Its Complement
Event Complement of the Event
Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
Selecting a letter of the alphabet Getting a consonant (assume y is a
and getting a vowel consonant)
Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April,
month that begins with a J May, August, September, October,
November, or December
Selecting a day of the week and Getting Saturday or Sunday
Blugmeant,tCin hagptaer w4
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eekday
Exampl
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Exampl
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of
the world is 51 , find the probability that a person does not live in an
industrialized country.
P Not living in industrialized country

= 1 P living in industrialized country
1
 1  4
5 5
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Exampl
Bluman, Chapter 4 41
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Relative Frequency Concept of Probability or
Empirical Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual experience to
determine the likelihood of outcomes.
P E  f  frequency of desired class

n Sum of all frequencies
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Example
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5
had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency
distribution and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Bluman, C hapter 43
Total 50 shs.mapua.edu.ph
Example
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P  O  f
B 5 n
AB 2  21
O 21 50
Bluman, C hapter 44
Example1
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Bluman, C hapter 45
Example1
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
A B AB 22 P  A or B  22 5
O 5 50 50
2  27
21
Total 50
50
Bluman, C hapter 46
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Example1
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Bluman, C hapter 47
Example1
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A B AB 22
P neither A nor O 
O 5 5 2
2 
50 50
21
7
Total 50  50
Bluman, C hapter 48
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Example1
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Bluman, C hapter 49
Example1
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A B AB 22 P not AB
O 5
 1 P AB 
2
21 2 48 24
Total 50
 1
Bluman, C hapter
505025
50
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Subjective Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated
guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact information.
In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated guess at

the chance that an event will occur, This is based on the person’s experience
and evaluation of a solution.
Bluman, Chapter 4
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Example1
The president of a company has a hunch that there is a .80
probability that the company will be successful in marketing a new
brand of ice cream. Is this a case of classical, relative frequency, or
subjective probability? Explain why.
Subjective probability, this is a case of subjective probability

because the given probability is based on the president's judgment.
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Example
* A physician might say that, on the basis of her

diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will need
an operation.
* A sportswriter may say that there is a 60% probability
that the Lakers will win the championship next year.
* A seismologist might say that there is an 80%

probability that an earthquake will occur in a certain
area.
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Marginal and Conditional Probability
Suppose all 100 employees of a company were asked
whether they are in favor of or against paying high salaries
to CEOs of U.S. companies. The table A gives a two-way
classification of the responses of these 100 employees.
Assume that every employee responds either in
favor or Table A. Two way Classification of
Employee Responses
In Favor Against
Male 15 45
Female 4 36 shs.mapua.edu.ph
Table B. Two way Classification of
Employee Responses
In Favor Against Total
Male 15 45 60
Female 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100
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The probability of each of these four characteristics or
events is called marginal probability.
These probabilities are called marginal probabilities
because they are calculated by dividing the corresponding
row margins (totals for the rows) or column margins
(totals for the columns) by the grand total.
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Marginal probability is the probability of a
single event without consideration of any
other event.
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The four marginal probabilities :
𝑃 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 60
𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒 = = 0.60
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠 100
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 40
𝑃 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠 = = 0.40
100
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓𝐼𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟 19
𝑃 𝐼𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠 = = 0.19
100
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡 81
𝑃 𝐴𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡 = = = 0.81
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠 100
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Marginal
Now suppose that one employee is selected at random from these
100 employees. Furthermore, assume it is known that this
(selected) employee is a male. In other words, the event that the
employee selected is a male has already occurred. Given that this
selected employee is a male, he can be in favor or against. What is
the probability that the employee selected is in favor of paying high
salaries to CEOs? This probability is written as follows:
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Conditional
Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur
given that another event has already occurred. If A and B are two
events, then the conditional probability of A given B is written as
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
And read as “the probability of A given that B has already occurred
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Exampl
Compute the conditional probability 𝑃(𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟|𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) for the data
on 100 employees given in table B (from previous example)
𝑃(𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟|𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)
Based on the information that the employee selected is a male, we
can infer that the employee selected must be one of the 60 males
and, hence, must belong to the first row of Table B. Therefore, we
are concerned only with the first row of that table.
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Exampl
In Favor Against Total
Male 15 45 60
Males who are in favor Total number of males
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Exampl
There are 60 males, and 15 of them are in favor. Hence, the required
conditional probability is calculated as follows:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟
𝑃 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
15
= 𝑜𝑟 0.25
60
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Exampl
Calculate the conditional probability that a randomly selected
employee is a female given that this employee is in favor of paying
high salaries to CEOs.
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Exampl
Calculate the conditional probability that a randomly selected
employee is a female given that this employee is in favor of paying high
salaries to CEOs.
Hence, the required probability is

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟
𝑃 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝐼𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟
4
= = 0.2105
19
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Addition Rules for Probability
• Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur
at the same time (i.e., they have no outcomes in common)
Addition Rules
P  A or B   P  A  P  B  Mutually Exclusive
P  A or B   P  A  P  B   P  A and B Not M. E.
Bluman, Chapter 4
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MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
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NONMUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
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Example1
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which
are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or
6 Mutually Exclusive
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Example1
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
Getting a 3: 3
Not Mutually Exclusive
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Example
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
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Example
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or
3 Not Mutually Exclusive
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Example
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4
Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or
3 Mutually Exclusive
shs.mapua.edu.
Example 2
At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats,
and 6 Independents. If a person is selected at random, find the
probability that he or she is either a Democrat or an
Independent.
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats,
2
and 6 Independents. If a person is selected at random, find the

probability that he or she is either a Democrat or an
Independent.
Mutually Exclusive Events

𝑃 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑟 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡
= 𝑃 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑡 + 𝑃 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡
13 6 19
= + = 𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 0.487
39 39 39
shs.mapua.edu.
InExample
a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
3
nurses and 3 physicians are females.

If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
shs.mapua.edu.
Example 3
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P Nurse or Male P Nurse P Male P Male Nurse

 Bluman, Chapter 4 8  3  78 1  10
13 13 13 13 shs.mapua.edu.
Drawing a Card. A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck
of cards. Find the probability that:
a. it is either an ace or a black card.
b. It is an ace or a king.
shs.mapua.edu.
shs.mapua.edu.
Drawing a Card. A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of
it is either an ace or a black card.
It is an ace or a king.
𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 + 𝑃 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 − 𝑃 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠

𝑃 = 4 + 26 − 2
𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑
52 52 52
30 2
𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = − Since there are 4 aces and 26 black cards (13
52 52 spades and 13 clubs), 2 of the aces are black
cards, namely, the ace of spades and the ace
28 7
𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = = of clubs. Hence, the probabilities of the two
52 13 outcomes must be subtracted since they have
been counted twice. shs.mapua.edu.ph
Drawing a Card. A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of
it is either an ace or a black card.
It is an ace or a king.
𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 + 𝑃 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔

𝑃 = 4 + 4
𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔
52 52
8
𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
52
8 2
𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔==
5213 shs.mapua.edu.
Try This!
Selecting a Student. In a statistics class, there are 18 juniors and 10
seniors; 6 of the seniors are females and 12 of the juniors are males. If a
student is selected at random, find the probability of selecting the
following.
a. A junior or a female
b. A senior or a female
shs.mapua.edu.
Selecting a Student. In a statistics class, there are 18 juniors and 10 seniors; 6 of the
seniors are females and 12 of the juniors are males. If a student is selected at random,
find the probability of selecting the following.
a. A junior or a female
b. A senior or a female
Juniors Seniors Total a. 𝑃 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑟 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
Male 12 4 16 = 𝑃 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 + 𝑃 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 − 𝑃 𝐽𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
18 12 6 24 6
Female 6 6 12 = + − = =
28 28 28 28 7
Total 18 10 28
b. 𝑃 𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑟 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
= 𝑃 𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 + 𝑃 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 − 𝑃 𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
10 12 6 16 4
= + − = =
28 28 28 28 7
shs.mapua.edu.
Multiplication Rules
 Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A
occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.
Multiplication Rules
P  A and B   P  A   P  B Independent
P  A and B   P  A   P  B A Dependent
Bluman, Chapter 4
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
a. Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then
drawing a second card.
b. Raining today and Malls being on sale
c. Parking in a no- parking zone and getting a parking ticket.
d. Having high grades and getting a scholarship
e. Rolling a die and drawing a card from a deck.
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
a. Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then
drawing a second card. (Dependent Events)
b. Raining today and Malls being on sale (Independent Events)
c. Parking in a no- parking zone and getting a parking
ticket. (Dependent Events)
d. Having high grades and getting a scholarship
(Dependent Events)
e. Rolling a dice and drawing a card from a deck.
(Independent Events)
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
A coin is flipped, and a die is rolled. Find the probability of
1
getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
Independent Events
P Head and 4 P  Head   P  4 

1 1 1
  
2 6 12
This problem could be solved using sample

shs.mapua.edu.
Example 2
space. H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5,
T6
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer great
3
stress at least once a week. If three people are selected at

random, find the probability that all three will say that they
suffer great stress at least once a week.
shs.mapua.edu.
Example 2
A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer great
stress at least once a week. If three people are selected at
random, find the probability that all three will say that they
suffer great stress at least once a week.
Independent
90
Events
𝑃 𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆 = 𝑃 𝑆 ⋅ 𝑃 𝑆
= 0.46 ⋅ 0.46 ⋅ 0.46
Bluman, Chapter 4
= 0.097
shs.mapua.edu.
⋅ 𝑃(𝑆)
shs.mapua.edu.
Male Color Blindness. Approximately 9% of men have a
type of color blindness that prevents them from
distinguishing between red and green. If 3 men are
selected at random, find the probability that all of them will
have this type of red-green color blindness.
Let C denote red-green color blindness
shs.mapua.edu.
Male Color Blindness. Approximately 9% of men have a
type of color blindness that prevents them from
distinguishing between red and green. If 3 men are
selected at random, find the probability that all of them will
have this type of red-green color blindness.
Let C denote red-green color blindness
𝑃𝐶 = 𝑃𝐶 · 𝐶 · 𝑃𝐶
𝑃
𝑃𝐶 = 0.09 0.09 (0.09)
𝑃𝐶 = 0.000729
𝑃 𝐶=0.0007
shs.mapua.edu.
Example 3
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5 burglaries
reported in 2003, 16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to
select at random two burglaries to further investigate, find the
probability that both will have occurred in 2004.
shs.mapua.edu.
Example 3
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5 burglaries
reported in 2003, 16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to
select at random two burglaries to further investigate, find the
probability that both will have occurred in 2004.
Dependent Events
𝑃 𝐶1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶2 = 𝑃 𝐶1 ∗ 𝑃(𝐶2|𝐶1)
16 15 60
= ∗ =
53 52 689
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
Drawing Cards. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not
replaced. Find the probability of these events.
a. Getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
Drawing Cards. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not
replaced. Find the probability of these events.
a. Getting 3 jacks
𝑃 4 3 2 24 1
𝑥 = 𝑜𝑟
𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑠 = 51 132,600 5525
𝑥 52
50
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order

𝑃 = 4 𝑥 4 4 𝑥
𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 52 51 50
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
54 8
= 𝑜𝑟
132,600 1
6
,
5
7
5
shs.mapua.edu.
Conditional Probability
 Conditional probability is the probability that the
second event B occurs given that the first event A has
occurred.
Conditional Probabili
P
P  B A
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a parking
1
ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking
space and has to park in the no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam
arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the
probability that he will get a parking ticket.
N= parking in a no-parking zone, T= getting a ticket

P T N P  N an
shs.mapua.edu.
Example 2

0
.
0
6
 0.30
0
.
2
0
shs.mapua.edu.
Example
A recent survey
3
asked 100 people if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The
results of the survey are shown.
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y), given
that the respondent was a female (F).
b. b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male (M), given
that the respondent answered no (N).
shs.mapua.edu.
E xa m pl e 2 a
a . F ind t h e pr obability that the respondent
answered yes (Y), given that the respondent was a female
shs.mapua.edu.
E xa m pl e 2 a
P  Y F Y
P  F and
 P F
shs.mapua.edu.
E xa m pl e 2 a
8
100 8 4
   25
50 50
1
0
0
shs.mapua.edu.
Exa m p le 2 b
b . Fi nd th e p ro bability that the respondent was a
male (M), given that the respondent answered no (N).
shs.mapua.edu.
Exa m p le 2 b
male (M), given that the respondent
Bluman, Chapter 4
answered no (N).
M
103
P N
P M N
and

shs.mapua.edu.
Exa m p le 2 b
male (M), given that the respondent answered no (N).
3

6 10
0
18
100
60 
1
100 8
shs.mapua.edu.
Example 3
A card is drawn from a deck of cards. Given that the card drawn is red
card, then what is the probability of getting a face card?
A = event of getting red card

D = event of getting a face card
shs.mapua.edu.
The probability of getting a face card given that
it is a red card
𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) 𝟔 𝟓𝟐
𝑃 = = 𝟓𝟐 𝟔
𝐷|𝐴 𝑃(𝐴) =
𝟐𝟔 𝟐𝟔
shs.mapua.edu.
𝟑
=
𝟏𝟑
shs.mapua.edu.
Try This!
Consider tossing a single die. Define the following events:
𝑨 = event that an even number appears
𝑩 = event that 2 appears
𝑪 = event that 3 appears
Find P
A and P A.
B
C
shs.mapua.edu.
1
P  B A
P  A  B

P  C A
 
PAC shs.mapua.edu.
0 6
 0
P  A 1
2
shs.mapua.edu.
Two Important Observations
Two Important Observations
1. Two events are either mutually exclusive or independent.2
(a) Mutually exclusive events are always dependent.

(b) Independent events are never mutually exclusive.
2. Dependent events may or may not be mutually exclusive.
shs.mapua.edu.
Resources
• Mann, P. (2015). Introductory Statistics, 9th Edition. John Wiley
and Sons, Inc.
• Bluman, A. (2017). Elementary Statistics: A Step By Step

Approach, 10th Edition. McGraw-Hill Education
shs.mapua.edu.
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MATH03

Statistics and Probability

Suppose your parents recently opened a new business, will it be

Will the Pandemic end this year?

The act of tossing a coin is an example of a statistical experiment.

An experiment is a process that, when performed, results in one

𝑆 = ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑, 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6

𝑆 = {𝐵𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐺}

• a device consisting of line

• used to determine all possible

𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}

Another example, let E= event of getting exactly 2 tails in 3 tosses

1. Suppose we randomly select two workers from a company

1. Suppose we randomly select two workers from a company

BUSINESS JOB HUNTING

2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events (or final

2. When you toss a coin, either you get head or tail.

3. For one game of football by a professional team.

When the probability of an event is extremely small, it is permissible to round the

𝑆 = {𝐵𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺}

Three outcomes {𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵} have two girls.

The probability of having two of three children being girls is:

𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 2 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠 3

Find the probability of obtaining an even number in one roll of a die

𝐴 = 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 = 2,4,6

If two dice ar e rolled one time, find the of getting a sum of 7

𝑃 = 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 blue blue

When a die is rolled, for instance,

The event of NOT GETTING an odd number is the complement of event E,

P Not living in industrialized country

P E  f  frequency of desired class

In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated guess at

Subjective probability, this is a case of subjective probability

* A physician might say that, on the basis of her

* A seismologist might say that there is an 80%

And read as “the probability of A given that B has already occurred

Males who are in favor Total number of males

Hence, the required probability is

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

3 Not Mutually Exclusive

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

and 6 Independents. If a person is selected at random, find the

Mutually Exclusive Events

nurses and 3 physicians are females.

P Nurse or Male P Nurse P Male P Male Nurse

𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 + 𝑃 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 − 𝑃 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠

𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 + 𝑃 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔

getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

This problem could be solved using sample

stress at least once a week. If three people are selected at

b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order

b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order

N= parking in a no-parking zone, T= getting a ticket

Bluman, Chapter 4 102

A = event of getting red card

(a) Mutually exclusive events are always dependent.

2. Dependent events may or may not be mutually exclusive.

• Bluman, A. (2017). Elementary Statistics: A Step By Step

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