PROBABILITY

Definition

- The probability of an event is a measure of the likelihood/chance that it

will happen or not happen in one trial or experiment, carried out in a
prescribed condition.

Notation

- The probability that an event A will occur is denoted by P(A)

- If A represents the event that a component, picked at random, from a
stock, is faulty, written A = {faulty component} then
P(A) denotes the probability of picking a faulty component

Values of probability lie between 0 and 1 i.e. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

A probability of 0 indicates that the event is impossible

A probability of 1 indicates that the event is certain/sure to happen

All other events have a probability between 0 and 1

Probabilities can be written as percentages, fractions or decimals

Examples of Probability Situations

1. There is an even chance of a coin coming down heads when tossed

1
⟹ the probability is or 0.5 or 50%.
2
2. There is a ONE in FOUR chance of cutting a pack of card are a diamond
1
⟹ the probability of a diamond appearing is or 0.25 or 25%.
4
3. The weather forecaster may say that there is a 70% chance of rain
7
⟹ Probability it rains is or 0.7
10
4. The likelihood of winning the lottery with one ticket can be shown to
be approximately 1 in 14 million
1
⟹ Probability of winning is or 0.000 000 07
14,000,000
1
APPROACHES TO PROBABILITY (i.e. WAYS OF ASSIGNING NUMBERS TO
PROBABILITY)

I. EMPIRICAL/EXPERIMENTAL/RELATIVE FREQUENCY APPROACH

A random experiment is repeated a large number of times, say n, under

identical conditions.

An event E is observed to occur m times

𝑚
Then the fraction is called the Relative Frequency.
𝑛

𝒎 𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝑬 𝒐𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒔

Thus Relative Frequency = =
𝒏 𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒑𝒕 𝒊𝒔 𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅

Thus Relative Frequency is an estimate of the Probability.

This is known as the experimental probability.

As n increases, the accuracy of the estimate increases

The probability of the event E is defined as the limit of the relative

𝑚
frequency as n tends to infinity
𝑛

𝒎
P(E) = 𝐥𝐢𝐦
𝒏 →∞ 𝒏
P(E) =

II. CLASSICAL/PRIORI APPROACH

Probability of an event A occurring is defined by

𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒐𝒄𝒖𝒓
P(A) =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

Example 1

When an unbiased die is cast/rolled, possible outcomes are

{1 , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

2
If event A is No. appearing is odd.
Odd No. appears when 1, 3, or 5 appears
Therefore No. of ways an odd No. appears = 3

𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒐𝒄𝒖𝒓 𝟑 𝟏

P(A) = = =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟔 𝟐

Example 2
A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of card.

No. Of ways a particular card can be drawn =1

No. Of ways of drawing a card = 52
If A is the event a particular card is drawn then
𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒐𝒄𝒖𝒓 𝟏
P(A) = =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟓𝟐

Example 3
There is a group consisting 20 men and 33 women. Determine the
probabilities of selecting at random
(a) a man
(b) a woman .

SOLUTION

𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒂 𝒎𝒂𝒏 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅

(a) P(man) =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒅

𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒎𝒆𝒏 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎
= = =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒐 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒅 𝟐𝟎+𝟑𝟑 𝟓𝟑

= 0.3774

𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏 𝟑𝟑
(b) P(woman) = =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒐 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒅 𝟐𝟎+𝟑𝟑

𝟐𝟎
= = 0.6226
𝟓𝟑

3
III. PROBABILITIES WHEN OUTCOMES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY

When an unbiased coin is tossed, the outcomes are Heads H and Tails T.
Since both H and T have the same chance of appearing, these are said to be
EQUALLY LIKELY outcomes.

For equally likely outcomes

𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒇𝒖𝒍 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
Probability =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

When an unbiased coin is tossed and we consider obtaining heads as the

successful outcome, then

No. Of possible outcomes =2

No. Of successful outcomes = 1

𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1
Hence P(H) = P(success) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 2

IV. THE PERSONALISTIC OR SUBJECTIVE APPROACH

This method is used when you cannot estimate a probability using
experimental methods or equally likely outcomes.
Here, probability may be defined as a measure of the degree of
confidence or belief that a particular individual has in the occurrence
of an event.

For example.
 The probability that it will rain on Christmas Day
 The likelihood that a particular make of car will be stolen

In such cases, the probability might be based on past experiences,

such as weather records or crime figure, or on expert opinion or other
factors.

This method has a disadvantage that two or more persons face

with the same evidence may arrive at different probabilities

4
SOME COMMON TERMS

Random Experiment
o A well-defined process of observing a given chance
phenomena thro’ a series of trials each of which leads to a single
outcome (the experiment is not controlled as done in a lab)

Event

o And event is a possible outcome of an experiment or a

result of a trial or an observation

Elementary/simple Event
An elementary/simple is a single possible outcome of an
experiment.

Compound Events
When two or more events occurring connection with each other,
then their simultaneous occurrence is called a compound event.
The compound event is an aggregate of simple events.

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive when both cannot
happen simultaneously in a single trial or, in other words, the
happening of one prevents the happening of the other and vice
versa.
E.g.
 If a coin is tossed, either the head is up or the tail, both
cannot be up at the same time.
 Light and darkness cannot be present at the same time.

5
  A person cannot be alive and dead at the same time

Collectively Exhaustive Events

Collectively exhaustive events are those which include all possible

outcomes. For example tossing a coin, head and tail are the only
possible outcomes.

The sum of probabilities must be 1 for mutually exclusive and c

collectively exhaustive events.

Complementary Events

Let E be an event of favourable cases in the experiment, then E’,

called the complementary event of E is the number of non-
favourable cases in the experiment.

E and E’ are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.

E.g A group of 20 college students contains eight who are in first

year.

Let E be the event s student is in first year.

Then E’ is the event that a student is not in first year.

Equally Likely Events

Events are said to be equally likely when one does not occur
more often than others.

E.g. if a coin is tossed or die is thrown, each face is expected to be

observed approximately the same number of times in the long
run.

6
 ELEMENTS OF SET THEORY

SET
A set is any well define collection or list of distinct objects.
E.g.
 a group of students
 the books in a library
 integers between 1 and 100
 all human beings on the earth
 all Kenyans
 AE students
 Etc

 Any object either belongs or does not belong to the set under
consideration.
 Each object appears only once

Objects in a set called members of that set

Sets are usually denoted by capital letters such as A, B, C, etc

Elements in a set are represented by small letters such as a, b, c, etc.

A set is usually described in either of the following two ways:

I. Roster or Tabulation Method

Elements are listed enclosed within brackets { }
e.g. the set of possible outcomes of tossing two coins may be
written as:- S = { (T,T), (T, H), (H, T) , (H, H) }

II. Rule or Defining Property method

A brief and exact way to describe set without listing elements. E.g.
S = {x:x is a student in the university}
S = {x/x is a student in the university}
This is read as “S is the set of all x such that x is a student in the
university”

7
Universal Set

The universal set ∪ (or ℰ ) is defined as that set consisting of all the
elements under consideration.

Thus if A is any set and U is the universal set, then every element in A must
in U.

Null Set { } or 𝝓 (Phi)

A set having no element at all is called a null or empty set. The null set is
denoted by Greek letter 𝜙 (Phi) or { }

Subset

If every element of a set A is also an element of a set B, then A is called a

subset of B.

E.g. A = {3, 5} and B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}.

Every element in A is also in B

A is said to be a subset of B represented as A ⊂ B read as A is

contained in B or A is a subset of B

Equal Sets

Two sets A and B are said to be equal if and if every element of A is also an
element of B and vice versa.

Symbolically A = B if and only if A ⊂ B and B ⊂ A

SET OPERATIONS
Venn diagrams are used.

Basic operations are

o Intersection
8
 o Disjoint Set
o Union
o Complementation
o Difference

Intersection of sets

Intersection of two sets A and B is the set of elements that are common to
both A and B.

The intersection of set A and b is written as

A ∩ B = {x:x ∈ A and x ∈ B}

In the Diagram, the shaded area corresponds to the intersection of sets A

and B. U is the universal set.

Figure 1

A B

A ∩B

Example 1

Consider the sets of numbers U = { x: x is positive integer}

A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6, 7, 8, 9, 10} B = {8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13,14}

Then A ∩ B = {8, 9, 10}

Only these elements appear in both A and B.

Disjoint Sets

Two sets A and B are called disjoint if they do not intersect.

This is expressed as A ∩B = 𝝓 where 𝜙 is a null set.

9
When two set do not intersect, they are said to be disjoint or mutually
exclusive. These sets are shown below in the diagram.

Figure 2

A B

Example 2

Consider the sets of numbers

U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

A = {1, 2, 3} B = {5, 6}

Note that A and B do not intersect.

They can be expressed as A ∩ B = 𝜙

Union of sets

The union of two sets A and B is the set of elements that belong to
either A or B or both. This is expressed as

A U B = {x: x ∈ A or x ∈ B}

In the diagram, the area representing the elements of the set A U B has
been shaded.

Figure 3

A B

A U B =A+B – A ∩ B

10
 Example 3

Consider the set of numbers

U = {x : x is a positive integer}

A = {1, 3, 5} and B = {3, 4, 5,6}

Then A U B = {1,3,4, 5, 6}.

Since these elements appear in either A or B or both

Complement of a Set

If A is a subset of the universal set U, then the complement of A with

respect to U is the set of al elements of U that are not in A or

The complement of set A is the set of all elements that do not belong to
A and is denoted by A’ or A

In symbols A’ = {x: x ∈ U and x ∉ A}

Example

Consider employees of a firm as the universal set.

Let all the smokers form a subset.

Then all the non-smokers form a subset which is called the complement of
the set constituting smokers.

In the diagram, the area representing the complement of A has been

shaded.

Figure 4

A
A’ or 𝐴̅

11
A and A’ do not intersect.

That is A ∩ A’ = 𝜙 and A U A’ = U

A and A’ are mutually exclusive and completely exhaustive

Example

Let U = {1, 2, 3, 4}.

If A = {1, 2, 3} then A’ = {4}

Difference of Two Sets

The difference of sets A and B is defined as

A – B = {x: x ∈ A and x ∉ B}

This is shown as the shaded area

Figure 5

A
B

A–B

Example

Let a = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13) B = {5, 9, 13, 17}

Then A – B = {1, 3, 7, 11}

12
COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Factorials

Given a positive integer n, the product of all the whole numbers from n
thro’ tp 1 is called n factorial and is written as n! or n .

The expression n! is read as n factorial.

∴ n ! = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3) … x 3x 2 x 1

E.g. 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120

Permutations

These are also called arrangements.

Each of the arrangements which can be made by taking some or all of the
things is called permutations.

The number of permutations which can be made by taking four letters a,

b, c, d two at a time are 12 (= 4 x 3), namely :-

ab, ac, ad,

ba, bc, bd,

ca, cb, cd,

da, db, dc

There are 4 – letters hence 4 ways of choosing the first letter

The second letter can be chosen in 3 ways.

Hence 4 x 3 = 12 possible ways of arranging 2 letters from the 4 letters.

This is the number of permutations of 2 letters take from 4 letters and it

is written 4P2

So 4P2 = 4 x 3 = 12

If 3 letters were chosen to be arranged out of the 4, we would have

First letter chosen In 4 possible ways

13
Second letter chosen in 3 possible ways

Third letter chosen in 2 possible ways

Giving 4 x 3 x 2 possible arrangements

First abc abd acb acd adb adc

Second bac bad bca bcd bda bdc

Third cab cad cba cbd cda cdb

Fourth dab dac dba dbc dca dcb

No. of permutations = 4P3 = 4 x 3 x 2 = 24

If there are n unlike objects and r of them are taken, the number of
permutations, or ordered arrangements is written nPr , where

n 𝑛!
Pr = (𝑛−𝑟)!

n 𝑛! 𝑛!
Note: Using the formula Pn = (𝑛−𝑛)!
= (0)!

0 ! is defined to be 1, i.e 0! = 1

COMBINATIONS OF r OBJECTS FROM n OBJECTS

These are also known as selections.

A combination of number of objects is a selection of these objects

considered without regard to their order.

E.g. ab and ba are different arrangements (permutations) of the same

selection of letters.

From the letters a, b, c, d the combinations or selections of two letters

taken at a time is ab, ac, ad, bc, bd, cd.

Thus there are six (6) possible combinations.

14
A combination is the number of selections of r different items from n
distinguishable items when order of selection is ignored.

n 𝒏
A combination is denoted by Cr or ( ) and given by
𝒓
n 𝒏!
Cr =
𝒓!(𝒏−𝒓)!

Example

In how many ways can 6 persons be chosen out of 8?

Solution

n 8 8! 8𝑥7𝑥6𝑥5𝑥4𝑥3𝑥2𝑥1
Cr = C6 = =
6!(8−6)! 6𝑥5𝑥4𝑥3𝑥2𝑥1𝑥(2𝑥1)

= 28

Example
7
Evaluate (a) C4 [35]
10
(b) C6 [210]
8
(c) C5 [56]

PROBABILITY RULE FOR COMBINED EVENTS

S=𝜀
A B

A ∩ B

If the number of outcomes in A = n(A)

And the number of outcomes in B = n(B)

15
And number of outcomes in AU B = n(AUB)

Since AU B consists of all the elements in A and all the elements in B,

then taking n(A) + n(B) means you will count the elements in (A ∩ B)
twice.

Therefore to find n(AUB), the number of outcomes in AUB, you have to

take one overlap A ∩ B away.

Hence

n(AUB) = n(A) + n(B) - n (A ∩ B)

Now Dividing both sides by n(S) or [ n( 𝜀 ) ] we get

𝒏(𝑨∪ 𝑩) 𝒏(𝑨) (𝑩) 𝒏(𝑨 𝑩)
= + – (1)
𝒏( 𝜺 ) 𝒏( 𝜺 ) 𝒏( 𝜺 ) 𝒏( 𝜺 )

𝑛(𝐴∪ 𝐵) 𝑛(𝐴) (𝐵) 𝑛(𝐴 𝐵)

Since P(AUB) = , P(A) = , P(B) = , P(A ∩ B) =
𝑛( 𝜀 ) 𝑛( 𝜀 ) 𝑛( 𝜀 ) 𝑛( 𝜀 )

Therefore equation (1) becomes

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

Or

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Example 3.3

In a class of 20 children, 4 of the 9 boys and 3 of the 11 girls are in the

athletics team. A person from the class is chosen to be in the ‘egg and
spoon’ race on Sports Day. Find the probability that the person chosen is

(a) In the athletics team

(b) Female
(c) A female member of the athletics team
(d) A female or in the athletics team

16
SOLUTION

Possibility space S: the class of 20 people

7
(a) Event A : member of the athletics team is chosen, P(A) = = 0.35
20
11
(b) Event F: a female is chosen , P(B) = = 0.55
20
3
(c) P(female and in the athletics team) = P(A and Female) = = 0.15
20
(there are 3 in the athletics team)
(d) P(A or F) = P(A) + P(F) - P(A ∩ F)
= 0.35 + 0.55 - 0.15
= 0.75

Example 3.4
19 2 4
Events C and D are such that P(C) = , P(D) = and P(C ∪ D) = .
30 5 5
Find P(C∩ D).

SOLUTION

Using P(C U D) = P(C) + P(D) – P(C ∩ D ) then

4 19 2
= + – P(C ∩ D )
5 30 5

19 2 4 7
Hence P(C ∩ D ) = + – =
30 5 5 30

OTHER USEFUL RESULTS RELATING TWO EVENTS A AND B

(a) P(A ∩ B) = P(B ∩ A)

P(A 𝑎𝑛𝑑 B) = P(B 𝑎𝑛𝑑 A) A B

(b) Sdf
17
 (c) sdf

EXCLUSIVE (OR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE) EVENT

If A and B are exclusive events, then P (A ∩ B) = 0
Since A ∩ 𝐵 is an impossible event.
Hence P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
If there are n exclusive events,
P(A1 or A2 or A3 … or An ) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + … + P(An)

For Mutually exclusive events

P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B) the ‘or’ rule
P (A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B)

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
If A and B are two events, not necessarily from the same experiment,
then the conditional probability that A occurs, given that B has already
occurred, is written P(A, given B) or P(A|B).

In the Venn diagram, the possibility space is reduced to just B, since B

has already occurred.

𝑛(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A, given B) = P (A|B) =
𝑛(𝐵)
𝑛(𝐴∩𝐵)/𝑛(𝑆)
=
𝑛(𝐵)/𝑛(𝑆)
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
=
𝑃(𝐵)

𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩)
P(A, given B) =
𝑷(𝑩)

𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
Or P (A|B) =
𝑷(𝑩)

Example 1
When a die was thrown he score was an odd number. What is the
probability it was a prime number?
18
SOLUTION
𝑷(𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒐𝒅𝒅)
P (prime, given odd) =
𝑷(𝒐𝒅𝒅)

𝟐/𝟔
=
𝟑/𝟔

(there are 2 prime & odd numbers 3 &5, and there are 3 odd numbers 1, 3, 5)

𝟐
P (prime, given odd) =
𝟑

Example 2

In a certain college

65% of the students are full-time students

55% of the students are female

35% of the students are male full-time students

Find the probability that

a. A student chosen at random from all the students in the college is a

part-time student.
b. A student chosen at random from all the students in the college is
female and a part-time student,
c. A student chosen at random from all the female students in the college
is a part-time student.

SOLUTION

Define events S:

F: student is female P (F) = 0.55

M: student is male P (M) = 1 – 0.55 = 0.45

Full: student is full-time P (Full) = 0.65

19
(a) P (students is part-time) = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35
(b) Given that 35% are male, full-time student P (M ∩ Full) = 0.35
Also P (Full) = P (M ∩ Full) + P (F ∩ Full)
0.65 = 0.35 + P (F ∩ Full)
∴ P (F ∩ Full) = 0.30
P (F) = P(F ∩ Full) + P (F ∩ Part)
0.55 = 0.30 + P (F ∩ Part)

∴ P (Female and part-time) = 0.25

𝑷(𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑭)
(c) P (Part, given F) =
𝑷 (𝑭)
𝟎.𝟐𝟓
= = 0.45
𝟎.𝟓𝟓

P (student chosen from female students is part-time) = 0.45

Example 3

A group of students at a school is entered for A Level Mathematics

modules. Each student takes only module M1 or only module M2 or both
M1 and M2.

The probability that a student is taking M2 given that the student is taking
𝟏
M1 is .
𝟓

The probability that a student is taking M1, given that the student is taking
𝟏
M2 is .
𝟑

Find the probability that

a. a student selected at random is taking both M1 and M2,

b. a student selected at random is taking only M1.

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SOLUTION

Events

M1: a student takes module M1

M2 : a student takes module M2

𝟏 𝟏
You are given that P (M2|M1) = , P (M1|M2) =
𝟓 𝟑

Since each student takes one or both, P (M1 U M2) = 1

a. Let P (M1 ∩ M2) = 𝓍

𝑷(𝑴𝟐 ∩ 𝑴𝟏 )
P (M2 | M1) =
𝑷 (𝑴𝟏 )

𝟏 𝓍
=
𝟓 𝑷 (𝑴𝟏 )

P (M1) = 5𝓍

𝑷(𝑴𝟏 ∩ 𝑴𝟐 )
Also P (M1 | M2) =
𝑷 ( 𝑴𝟐 )

𝟏 𝓍
=
𝟑 𝑷 ( 𝑴𝟐 )
P (M2) = 3𝓍

P (M1 U M2) = P (M1) + P (M2) - P (M1 ∩ M2)

But M1 and M2 are exhaustive events, so P (M1 U M2) = 1

1 = 5𝓍 + 3𝓍 - 𝓍

1 = 7𝓍
1
𝓍 =
𝟕

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 1
P (a student is taking M1 and M2) =
𝟕

5 3
b. P (M1) = 5 𝓍 = , P (M2) = 3 𝓍 =
7 7

P (taking only M1) = P (M1) - P (M1 M2)

5 1 4
= - =
7 7 7
4
P (student taking only M1) =
7

INDEPENDENT EVENTS

If either of events A and B can occur without affecting the other,

then the two events are said to be independent event.

If A and B are independent, then P (A, given B has occurred) is

precisely the same as P(A)

i.e. P (A|B) = P (A)

It is also true that P(B | A) = P(B)

Since P(A ∩ B) = P(A B) x P(B) for independent events, then we

have

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)

This is known as the “and” rule for independence.

Example 1

In a group of 60 students, 20 study History, 24 study French and

8 study both History and French. Are the events “a student
studies History” and “a student studies French” independent?
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SOLUTION
20 1 24 2
P(History) = = , P(F) = =
60 3 60 5
8 2
P(H and F) = = (1)
60 15
1 2 2
Now P(H) x P(F) = x = (2)
3 5 15

From (1) and (2)

P(H and F) = P(H) x P(F)

Hence the two events are independent.

Example 2

The probability that a certain type of machine will break down

on the first month of operation is 0.1.

If a firm has two such machines which are installed at the same
time, find the probability that at the end of the first month, just
one has broken down.

Assume that the performances of the two machines are

independent.

SOLUTION

M1: machine 1 breaks down P(M1) = 0.1, P(M1’) = 0.9

M2: machine 2 breaks down P(M2) = 0.1 , P(M2’) = 0.9

If just one machine breaks down, then

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Either machine 1 has broken down and machine 2 is still working
(M1∩ M2’) or machine 1 is still working and machine 2 as broken
down (M1’ ∩ M2)

Now M1 and M2’ are independent, as are M1’ and M2

So P (M1∩ M2’) + P(M1’ ∩ M2) = P(M1) x P(M2’) + P (M1’) x P( M2)

= 0.1 x 0.9 + 0.9 x 0.1

= 0.18

The probability that after one month just one machine has
broken down is 0.18.

Example 3

Three people in an office decide to enter a marathon rac. The

respective probabilities that they will complete the marathon
race are 0.9, 0.7 and 0.6.

Assuming that their performances are independent, find the

probability that

a) They all complete the marathon

b) At least two complete the marathon.

SOLUTION

A: the first person to completes the marathon,

P(A) = 0.9, P(A’) = 0.1

B: the second person completes the marathon,

P(B) = 0.7, P(B’) = 0.3

C: the third person completes the marathon,

P(C) = 0.6, P(C’) = 0.4)
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(a) P (all three complete ) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C) (independent events)
= 0.9 x 0.7 x 0.6
= 0.378
(b) If at least two complete the marathon then either two of
them do, or all three do.
P(all three complete) = 0.378 from part (a)
P(two complete)
= P(A) x P(B) x P(C’) + P(A) x P(B’) x P(C) + P(A’) x P(B) x P(C)
= 0.9 x 0.7 x 0.4 + 0.9 x 0.3 x 0.4 + 0.1 x 0.7 x 0.6
= 0.456
P(at least two complete) = 0.378 + 0.456 = 0.834

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