03 Probability

Chapter 3
Probability
Thomas Bayes
Born 1702
Died 17 April 1761
Nationality British
Field Mathematics
Known for Bayes Theorem
Bayesian probability is an interpretation of probability suggested by Bayesian theory, which holds that the
concept of probability can be defined as the degree to which a person believes a proposition. Bayesian
theory also suggests that Bayes' theorem can be used as a rule to infer or update the degree of belief in light
of new information.
On the Bayesian interpretation, the theorems of probability relate to the rationality of partial belief
in the way that the theorems of logic are traditionally seen to relate to the rationality of full belief. Bayesian
probability is supposed to measure the degree of belief an individual has in an uncertain proposition, and is
in that respect subjective. Some people who call themselves Bayesians do not accept this subjectivity.
Advocates of logical (or objective epistemic) probability, such as Harold Jeffreys, Rudolf Carnap,
Richard Threlkeld Cox and Edwin Jaynes, hope to codify techniques whereby any two persons having the
same information relevant to the truth of an uncertain proposition would calculate the same probability.
Such probabilities are not relative to the person but to the epistemic situation, and thus lie somewhere
between subjective and objective. However, the methods proposed are controversial.
Some regard Bayesian inference as an application of the scientific method because updating
probabilities through Bayesian inference requires one to start with initial beliefs about different hypotheses,
to collect new information (for example, by conducting an experiment), and then to adjust the original
beliefs in the light of the new information. Adjusting original beliefs could mean (coming closer to)
accepting or rejecting the original hypotheses.
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Chapter-3 / Probability
Introduction
Some events seem to have certainity about their outcome; while few are certain not to happen. There
are others, which, with regard to their outcome, vary between the two extreme situations referred to
the above. In a rough way, a measure of the happening or non-happening of an event may be given
by the term Probability. The word probability and the word chance are synonymous and may be
taken, in this context, to be indistinguishable.
❑ Concept of probability in set Theoretic Language

When an experiment is repeated under similar conditions and it does not give the same result
each time but may result in any one of the several possible outcomes, the experiment is called a
trial and the outcomes are called cases. The number of times the experiment is repeated is called
the number of trials.
3.1 Definition of Probability with Discrete Sample Space
If the sample space S of an experiment consists of finitely many outcomes (points) that are equally
likely, then the probability of occurrence of an event A is
In particular P(S) = 1 and 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
Illustration 1
Ten items out of a set of 100 are defective. What is the probability that 3 out of any four chosen are
defective?
Solution
Probability
Illustration 2
Seven persons are to be seated on one side of a straight table. What is the probability that two
particular persons will be seated next to each other?
Solution
Total number of ways of 7 persons being seated is ways

If two are to be seated next to each other, treat them as one unit – and this one unit with the
remaining 5 can be seated in ways ways – and in each one of these ways the two persons can
be interchanged in 2 ways.
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∴ probability
3.2 Axiomatic Definition of Probability

Given a sample space S, with each event A of S, there is associated a number P(A), called the
probability of A, such that the following axioms of probability are satisfied.
● For every A in S, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
● The entire sample space has the probability P(S) = 1
● For mutually exclusive events A and B (A ∩ B = φ), P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B)
3.3 Basic Theories of Probability

For an event A and its compliment AC in sample space S
as
and
⇒ 1 = P(A) + P(AC)
There are two approaches to probability viz. (i) Classical approach and (ii) Axiomatic approach.
In both the approaches we use the term ‘experiment’, which means an operation which can produce
some well-defined outcome(s). There are two types of experiments.
❑ Deterministic Experiment
Those experiments which when repeated under identical conditions produce the same result or
outcome are known as deterministic experiments. When experiments in science or engineering
are repeated under identical conditions, we get almost the same result everytime.
❑ Random Experiment
If an experiment, when repeated under identical conditions, do not produce the same outcome
every time but the outcome in a trial is one of the several possible outcomes then such an
experiment is known as a probabilistic experiment or a random experiment.
In a random experiment, all the outcomes are known in advance but the exact outcome is
unpredictable.
For example, in tossing of a coin, it is known that either a head or a tail will occur but one is
not sure if a head or a tail will be obtained. So it is a random experiment.
3.4 Definition of Various Terms

❑ Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of a trial (random experiment) is called its sample space. It is
generally denoted by S and each outcome of the trial is said to be a sample point.
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For example :
(i) If a dice is thrown once, then its sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
(ii) If two coins are tossed together then its sample space is = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
❑ Event
An event is a subset of a sample space.
(i) Simple event : An event containing only a single sample point is called an elementary or simple
event.
For example : In a single toss of coin, the event of getting a head is a simple event.
Here S = {H, T} and E = {H}
❑ Equally Likely Events
Events are equally likely if there is no reason for an event to occur in preference to any other
event.
For example :
If an unbiased die is rolled, then each outcome is equally likely to happen i.e., all elementary
events are equally likely.
❑ Mutually Exclusive Or Disjoint Events
Events are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint or incompatible if the occurrence of any one
of them prevents the occurrence of all the others, Mathematically, P(A ∩ B) = 0
For example :
E = getting an even number, F = getting an odd number, these two events are mutually exclusive,
because, if E occurs we say that the number obtained is even and so it cannot be odd i.e., F does
not occur.
A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive events if A 1 ∩ A2 = φ.
❑ Mutually Non-Exclusive Events

The events which are not mutually exclusive are known as compatible events or mutually non
exclusive events.
❑ Independent Events
Events are said to be independent if the happening (or non-happening) of one event is not
affected by the happening (or non-happening) of others,
Mathematically, for independent events P(A).P(B) = P(A ∩ B)
For example:
If two dice are thrown together, then getting an even number on first is independent to getting
an odd number on the second.
❑ Dependent Events
Two or more events are said to be dependent if the happening of one event affects (partially or
totally) other event, Mathematically, for dependent events P(A).P(B) ≠ P(A ∩ B)
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For example:
If two dices are thrown and the event A is that sum of 10 occurs and event B is that no dice
shows 5, then events are dependent.
❑ Exhaustive Number of Cases

The total number of possible outcomes of a random experiment in a trial is known as the
exhaustive number of cases.
For example :
In throwing a die the exhaustive number of cases is 6, since any one of the six faces marked with
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 may come uppermost.
❑ Favourable Number of Cases
The number of cases favourable to an event in a trial is the total number of elementary events
such that the occurrence of any one of them ensures the happening of the event.
For example :
In drawing two cards from a pack of 52 cards, the number of cases favourable to drawing 2
queens is 4C2.
❑ Mutually Exclusive And Exhaustive System Of Events
Let S be the sample space associated with a random experiment. Let A1, A2, ... An be subsets of S
such that
(i) and (ii)

Then the collection of events A1, A2....., An is said to form a mutually exclusive and
exhaustive system of events.
If E1, E2, ..... En are elementary events associated with a random experiment, then
(ii) and (ii)

So, the collection of elementary events associated with a random experiment always form a
system of mutually exclusive and exhaustive system of events.
In this system,
Illustration 3
Find the probability that a leap year selected randomly will have 53 Sundays.
Solution
A leap year contain 366 days i.e. 52 weeks and 2 days, clearly there are 52 Sundays in 52 weeks.
For the remaining two days, we may have any of the two days.
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(i) Sunday and Monday, (ii) Monday and Tuesday, (iii) Tuesday and Wednesday, (iv) Wednesday
and Thursday, (v) Thursday and Friday, (iv) Friday and Saturday and (vii) Saturday and Sunday.
Now for 53 Sundays, one of the two days must be Sundays, hence required probability =2/7
Illustration 4
Three distinct numbers are selected from 100 natural number. Find the probability that all the three
numbers are divisible by 2 and 3
Solution
The numbers should be divisible by 6. Thus the number of favourable ways is (as there are 16
numbers in first 100 natural numbers, divisible by 6). Required probability is
Illustration 5
Out of 21 tickets marked with numbers from 1 to 21, three are drawn at random. Find the chance that
the numbers on them are in A.P.
Solution
Total number of ways if common difference of the A.P. is to be 1, then the possible groups are 1, 2, 3;
2, 3, 4; .... 19, 20, 21.
If the common difference is 2, then possible groups are 1, 3, 5; 2, 4, 6; ..... 17, 19, 21.
Proceeding in the same way, if the common difference is 10, then the possible group is 1, 10, 21.
Thus if the common difference of the A.P. is to be 11, obviously there is no favourable case
Hence, total number of favourable cases = 19 + 17 + 15 + ... + 3 + 1 = 100
Hence, required probability

Illustration 6
A cricket club has 15 members, among whom only 5 can bowl. What is the probability of forming a
team of 11 to have at least 3 bowlers?
Solution
Total number of ways of forming the team = 15C11 = 15C4
Of these, number of ways of formation of the team
(i) with one bowler =
(ii) with two bowlers =
Probability that at least 3 bowlers are in the team =

Illustration 7
Five coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of event that at least one head turns up.
(Assume that wins are fair).
Solution
Let A be the event that ‘at lest one head turns up’ since each coin turns up on either a head or a tail
hence, the sample space consists of 25 = 32 outcomes. Each outcome having a probability of
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occurrence as . Then AC is the event that ‘No head turns up’. Thus Ac consists of only one
outcome,
Hence
🖎 Practice Exercise
1. If m rupee coins and n ten paise coins are placed in a line, then the probability that the extreme
coins are ten paise coins is_________.
2. Two numbers a and b are chosen at random from the set of first 30 natural numbers. The
probability that a2 – b2 is divisible by 3 is _________.
3. A pack of cards contains 4 aces, 4 kings, 4 queens and 4 jacks. Two cards are drawn at random.
The probability that at least one of these is an ace, is _________.
4. If four vertices of a regular octagon are chosen at random, then the probability that the
quadrilateral formed by them is a rectangle is _________.
5. Two numbers are selected at random from the numbers 1,2……….n. The probability that the
difference between the first and second is not less than m (where 0 < m < n) is _________.
Answers
1. 2. 47/87 3. 9/20 4. 1/35 5.
3.5 Odds In Favour and Odds Against an Event

As a result of an experiment if ‘‘a’’ of the outcomes are favourable to an event E and ‘‘b’’ of the
outcomes are against it, then we say that odds are a to b in favour of E or odds are b to a against E.
Thus odds in favour of an event
Similarly, odds against an event
Illustration 8
Two dice are tossed together. Find the odds in favour of the sum of the numbers on them as 2.
Solution
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If two dice are tossed, total number of events = 6 × 6 = 36.

Favourable event is (1, 1). Number of favourable events = 1
odds in favour
Illustration 9
A party of 23 persons take their seats at a round table. Find the odds against two persons sitting
together
Solution
3.6 Addition Theorem on Probability

❑ Notations
(i) P(A + B) or P(A ∪ B) = Probability of happening of A or B
= Probability of happening of the events A or B or both
= Probability of occurrence of at least one event A or B
(ii) P(AB) or P(A ∩ B) = Probability of happening of events A and B together.
❑ When Events are not Mutually Exclusive

If A and B are two events which are not mutually exclusive, then
For any three events A, B, C
or
❑ When Events are Mutually Exclusive

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
∴
For any three events A, B, C which are mutually exclusive
The probability of happening of any one of several mutually exclusive events is equal to the sum
of their probabilities, i.e. if A1, A2.....An are mutually exclusive events, then
P(A1 + A2 + .... + A2) = P(A1) + P(A2) + ..... + P(An) i.e.

❑ When Events are Independent
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If A and B are independent events, then
❑ Some Other Theorems

Let A and B two events associated with a random experiment, then
(a)
(b)
If B ⊂ A, then
(a)
(b)
Similarly if A ⊂ B then
(a)
(b)
Note :
Probability of occurrence of neither A nor B is
❑ Generalization of the Addition Theorem

If A1, A2, ..... An are n events associated with a random experiment, then
If all the events are mutually exclusive, then

i.e.
❑ Description of Events and Their Notation
Let A, B and C are three arbitrary events. Then
Verbal description of event Equivalent Set Theoretic Notation
(i) Only A occurs (i)
(ii) Both A and B, but not C occur (ii)

(iii) All the three events occur (iii)
(iv) At least one occur (iv)
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(v) At least two occurs (v)
(vi) One and no more occurs (vi)
(vii) Exactly two of A, B and C occur (vii)
(viii) None occurs (viii)
(ix) Exactly one of A and B occurs (ix)
Illustration 10
A box contains 6 nails and 10 nuts. Half of the nails and half of the nuts are rusted. If one item is
chosen at random, what is the probability that it is rusted or is a nail?
Solution
Let A be the event that the item chosen is rusted and B be the event that the them chosen is a nail.
Required probability
Illustration 11
The probability that a man will be alive in 20 years is 3/5 and the probability that his wife will be
alive in 20 years is 2/3. Then find the probability that at least one will be alive in 20 years.
Solution
Let A be the event that the husband will be alive in 20 years. B be the event that the wife will be alive
in 20 years. Clearly A and B are independent events. ∴
Given
The probability that at least one of them will be alive in 20 years is
Illustration 12
The probability that A speaks truth is 4/5 while this probability for B is 3/4. Find the probability that
they contradict each other when asked to speak on a fact.
Solution
Let E be the event that B speaks truth and F be the event that A speaks truth.
Now
∴ P(A and B contradict each other)
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= P[(B tells truth and A tells lie) or (B tells lie and A tells truth)]
Illustration 13
If .
Solution
From Venn diagram, we can see that
Illustration 14
The probability of happening of an event A is 0.5 and that of B is 0.3. If A and B are mutually
exclusive events, then find the probability of happening of neither A nor B.
Solution
Since A and B are mutually exclusive, so

Hence, required probability = 1- (0.5 + 0.3) = 0.2
6. Let A and B be events with P(A) = 0.3; P(A ∪ B) = 0.5; P(B) = p. If A is a subset of B then the value
of p is_________.
7. Let A, B and C be 3 arbitrary events defined on a sample space ‘S’ and if,
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = p1, P(A ∩ B) + P(B ∩ C)+ P(C ∩ A) = p2 and P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = p3, then the
probability that exactly one of three events occurs is given by________.
8. If A and B are two independent events such that P(A′ ∩ B′) = 2/15. P(A ∩ B′) = 1/6, then P(B)
is____________.
9. The probability that at least one of the events A and B occur is 0.6. If A and B occur
simultaneously with probability 0.2 then is________.

10. The probabilities of three events A, B and C are P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4 and P(C) = 0.5 If
P(A ∪ B) = 0.8, P(A ∩ C) = 0.3, P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0.2 and P(A ∪ B ∪ C) ≥ 0.85. Then maximum value
of P(B ∩ C ) is________.
Answers
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6. 0.5 7. p1 -2p2 + 3p3 8. 7/10 9. 1.2 10. 0.35
3.7 Conditional Probability

Let A and B two events associated with a random experiment. Then, the probability of occurrence of
A under the condition that B has already occurred and P(B) ≠ 0, is called the conditional probability
and it is denoted by P(A/B).
Thus, P(A/B) = Probability of occurrence of A, given that B has already happened
Note:
Sometimes, P(A/B) is also used to denote the probability of occurrence of A when B occurs.
Similarly, P(B/A) is used to denote the probability of occurrence of B when A occurs.
❑ Multiplication Theorems On Probability
(i) If A and B are two events associated with a random experiment, then P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B/A) if
P(A) ≠ 0 or P(A ∩ B) = P(B) . P(A/B), if P(B) ≠ 0.

(ii) Extension of multiplication theorem: If A1, A2, .... An are n events related to a random
experiment, then
where represents the conditional probability of the event Ai, given

that the events A1, A2.....Ai-1 have already happened.
(iii) Multiplication theorems for independent events: If A and B are independent events associated
with a random experiment, then i.e., the probability of simultaneous

occurrence of two independent events is equal to the product of their probabilities.
By multiplication theorem, we have

Since A and B are independent events, therefore P(B/A) = P(B). Hence, P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B).
(iv) Extension of multiplication theorem for independent events: If A1, A2....., An are independent
events associated with a random experiment, then
By multiplication theorem, we have
Since are independent events, therefore
Hence,
❑ Probability of At Least One of the N Independent Events
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If p1, p2, p3,......, pn be the probabilities of happening of n independent events A1, A2, A3,........., An
respectively, then
(i) Probability of happening of none of them
(ii) Probability of happening at least one of them
(iii) Probability of happening of first event and not happening of the remaining
3.8 Total Probability Theorem

Consider a sample space S, let Ai, i = 1 to n, be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of sample
space S.
Thus
Let A be any event of S. Then probability of the event A is given by
This result is obtained as
⇒ P(A) = P(A1 ∩ A) + P(A2 ∩ A) + ..... + P(An ∩ A)
Illustration 15
A lot contains 20 articles. The probability that the lot contains exactly 2 defective articles is 0.4; and
the probability that it contains exactly 3 defective articles is 0.6. Articles are drawn from the lot at
random one by one without replacement until all the defective articles are found. What is the
probability that the testing procedure stops at the twelth testing?
Solution
Suppose A is the event that the testing procedure ends at the twelth testing.
A1 = {the event that the lot contains 2 defective articles}
A2 = {the event that the lot contains 3 defective articles}
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3.9 Baye’s Theorem or Inverse Probability

Consider a sample space S, let Ai, i = 1 to n, be n
mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of sample
space S.
Thus
Let A be an event of S, then conditional probability of occurrence of any one of the event say Ak
out of the Ai, i = 1, 2,....n events is
Now using the concept of total probability we get Baye’s theorem as follows :
Illustration 16
In a factory manufacturing bolts; machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 20%, 30% and 50% of
the total production. Of their outputs, 2%, 3% and 5% are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random
from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured by
machine C?
Solution
Let A, B, C be the events that a bolt selected at random is manufactured respectively by machines A, B
and C respectively so that P(A) = 2/10; P(B) = 3/10 and P(C) = 5/10.
Let D be the event that the bolt selected at random is defective, so that
P(D/A) = 2/100
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P(D/B) = 3/100
And P(D/C) = 5/100;
.
Illustration 17
Two cards are drawn one by one from a pack of cards. Find the probability of getting first card an ace
and second an honour card (before drawing second card first card is not placed again in the pack).
Solution
Illustration 18
If A and B are two events such that P(A ∪ B) = P(A ∩ B) then show that
P(A) + P(B) =
Solution
11. A peon has eight master keys to open several new rooms. Only one master key will open any
given room. If 40% of these rooms are usually left unlocked, what is the probability that the peon
gets into specific room if he selects three master keys at random before leaving the office?
12. An urn contains 2 white and 3 red balls, another urn contains 4 white and 5 black balls. An urn is
selected at random and a ball is drawn from it and is observed to be white. What is the
probability that second urn was selected.
13. A letter has come either from TATA NAGAR or CALCUTTA. On the envelope only two
consecutive letters TA are visible? What is the probability that the letter has come from Calcutta?
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14. A bag contains 10 balls of which some are black. Probability that the bag contains exactly 3 black
balls is 0.6 and the probability that the bag contains exactly one black ball is 0.4. Now balls are
drawn from the bag one at a time without replacement till all black balls have been drawn. What
is the probability that the process will end at 6th draw?
15. If p1 is the probability that a statement made by A is true and p2 is the probability that the
statement made by B is true. A and B agree on a statement. What is the probability that S is true.
Answers
11. 5/8 12. 10/19 13. 4/11 14. 9/100
15.
3.10 Probability Distribution

Let S be a sample space. A random variable X is a function from the set S to R, the set of real
numbers.
For example, the sample space for a throw of a pair of dice is

Let X be the sum of numbers on the dice. Then X(12) = 3, X(43) = 7, etc. Also, {X = 7} is the event
{61, 52, 43, 34, 25, 16}. In general, if X is a random variable defined on the sample space S and r is a
real number, then {X = r} is an event. If the random variable X takes n distinct values x1, x2,....., xn,
then {X = x1}, {X = x2},....., {X = xn} are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Now, since (X = x) is an event, we can talk of P(X = x). If P(X = xi) = Pi(1 ≤ i ≤ n) then the system
of numbers.
is said to be the probability distribution of the random variable X. The expectation (mean) of the
random variable X is defined as and the variance of X is defined as
3.11 Binomial Probability Distribution

❑ Binomial Theorem
In n independent trials of a random experiment, let X be the number of times an event A occurs.
In each trial, event A has same probability as P(A) = p referred to as success. Then in a trial
non-occurrence of A is referred as failure and given by q = 1 – p.
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Here X can assume values from o to n. Now X = r means A occurs in r trials and in (n – r) it
does not occur. This may look as
where means complement of A. Using the assumption that trials are independent, that
is, they do not influence each other.
Hence the probability of getting r successes or occurrence of A in r trials out of n
independent trials is
which is denoted as binomial distribution of random variable X.

(i) The probability of getting at least k successes is
(ii) The probability of getting atmost k successes is
(iii)
We have P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + .... + P(X = n)
Now probability of
(a) Occurrence of the event exactly r times

(b) Occurrence of the event at least r times
If the probability of happening of an event in one trial be p, then the probability of successive
happening of that event in r trials is pr.
Note:
If n trials constitute an experiment and the experiment is repeated N times, then frequencies of
0, 1, 2,...,n successes are given by N.P(X = 0), N.P(X=1), N.P (X = 2),....., N.P (X = n).
❑ Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution

The binomial probability distribution is
X 0 1 2 …………. N
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………….
The mean of this distribution is the variance of the binomial distribution is
and the standard deviation is

❑ Use of Multinomial Expansion
If a die has m faces marked with the numbers 1, 2, 3,....m and if such n dice are thrown, then the
probability that the sum of the numbers exhibited on the upper faces equal to p is given by the
coefficient of xp in the expansion of .
Illustration 19
A random variable X has the probability distribution :
For the events E = {X is a prime number} and F = {X < 4}, then what is the probability P(E∪F)?
Solution
E = {X is a prime number}
Illustration 20
8 coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least 6 heads
Solution
The required probability
Illustration 21
An unbiased die with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 is rolled four times. Out of four face values
obtained. What is the probability that the minimum face value is not less than 2 and the maximum
face value is not greater than 5
Solution
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P(minimum face value is not less than 2 and maximum face value is not greater than 5)
Hence required probability
16. For a binomial distribution B(n,p), 0 < p < 1, is independent of n for every value of
r. Find p.
17. A die is thrown 7 times. What is the chance that an even number turns up
(i) exactly 5 times (ii) at least 5 times
18. The least number of times a fair coin must be tossed so that the probability of getting at least one
head is at least 0.8 is _________.
19. The mean and variance of a binomial variable X are 2 and 1 respectively, then find P(X ≥ 1)
20. A random variable X has the following probability distribution
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(X=x) a 3a 5a 7a 9a 11a 13a 15a 17a
Then find the value of a.
Answers
16. 1/2 17. (i) 21/128 (ii) 29/128 18. 3 19. 15/16 20. 1/81
Illustration 22
One hundred identical coins each with probability p of showing up heads are tossed once. If
0 < p < 1 and the probability of heads showing on 50 coins is equal to that of heads showing on 51
coins, then find the value of p.
Solution
We have
or and
3.12 Probability of Events in Experiments with Count ably

Infinite Sample Space
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The sample space of some random experiments have infinite sample points, and hence the events also
have infinite sample points in favour of their occurrence.
In some cases the probability is calculated by relating the sample space or the sets representing the
events, with lengths or areas of geometrical figures etc. Following are the illustrations of such cases.
Illustration 23
If a be chosen at random in the interval [0, 5], show that the probability that the equation 4x2 +
4ax + (a + 2) 0, to have real roots is 3/5.
Solution
Equation 4x2 + 4ax + (a + 2) = 0 will have real roots, if its discriminant D ≥ 0
⇒ 16a2 – 16(a + 2) ≥ 0
i.e., a2 – a – 2 ≥ 0 or (a – 2) (a + 1) ≥ 0
∴ a > 2 or a < – 1
But in the interval [0, 5], a > 2 ⇒ a ε [2, 5]
∴ probability
Illustration 24
A line is divided at random into three parts. What is the probability that they form the sides of a triangle.
Solution
Let AP = x, BQ = y and AB = a.
Since the sum of two sides of a triangle is greater
than the third side, AP must be less than
Similarly y < a/2 and ...(i)
For all possible cases of dividing the line, ...(ii)

Condition (ii) corresponds to the triangular region
OXY and condition (i) corresponds to the triangular
region PQR.
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21. Three points P, Q and R are selected at random from the circumference of the circle. Find the
probability that the point lies on a semicircle.
22. Two persons A and B agree to meet at a place between 11 noon to 12 noon. The first one to come
waits for 20 minutes and then leaves. If the time of their arrival are independent and at random,
then find the probability of meeting A and B.
23. Given that x + y = 2a, where ‘a’ is constant and that all values of x between 0 and 2a are equally
likely, then find the probability of

24. Two positive numbers x and y each of which does not exceed two, are taken at random. Find the
probability that xy ≤ 1 and y/x ≤ 2.
25. If a ∈ [-5, 30], then find the probability that the graph of the function y = x2 + 2(a+4)x -5a + 64 is
strictly above the x-axis.
Answers
21. 3/4 22. 5/9 23. 1/2 24. 25. 8/35
******
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Example 1
If two events A and B are such that 0.5, then P(B/A ∪ Bc) is
(a) 0.25 (b) 0.2 (c) 0.8 (d) 0.5
Solution
= 0.7 + 0.6 – 0.5 = 0.8, since mean the same thing.
Also
Also where X is the universal set
Since
Now required
∴ Ans. (a)
Example 2
A bag contains (n + 1) coins. It is known that one of these coins shows head on both sides, whereas the other
coins are fair. One coin is selected at random and tossed. If the probability that toss results in heads is 7/12, then
the value of n is
(a) 3 (b) 4 (c) 5 (d) none of these
Solution
Let E1, denotes the event that a coin with the heads is selected and E2 denotes the event that a fair coin is
selected. Let A be the event that the toss results in heads. Then,
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⇒
∴ Ans. (c)
Example 3
If X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n = 6 and p and 4(P(X = 4)) = P(X = 2), then p is
(a) (b) (c) (d)
Solution
4P(X = 4) = P(X = 2)
∴ Ans. (d)
Example 4
If X is following a binomial distribution with parameters n = 8 and p = 1/2, then P(|X – 4| ≤ 2) is
(a) 118/128 (b) 119/128 (c) 117/128 (d) none of these
Solution
We have,
∴ Ans. (b)
Example 5
The probabilities of a student getting I, II and III division in an examination are respectively The
probability that the student fail in the examination is
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(a) (b) (c) (d) none

of these
Solution
Let A denotes the event getting I division; B denotes the event getting II division.
C denotes the event getting III division; and D denotes the event that a student fails.
Obviously, these four events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, therefore
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + P(D) = 1 ⇒ P(D) = 1 – 0.95 = 0.05.
∴ Ans. (d)
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Example 6
The letters of the word ‘ASSASSIN’ are written down at random in a row. The probability that no two S occur
together is
Solution
Total ways of arrangements
Now ‘S’ can have places at dot’s and in places of w, x, y, z we have to put 2A’s, one I and one N as shown above.
Therefore, favourable ways . Hence, required probability

∴ Ans. (b)
Example 7
If A and B are events such that

(a) 5/12 (b) 3/8 (c) 5/8 (d) 1/4
Solution
∴ Ans. (a)
Example 8
A student appears for tests I, II and III. The student is successful if he passes either in tests I and II or tests I and
III. The probabilities of the student passing in tests I, II, III are p, q and respectively 1/2. If the probability that
the student is successful is 1/2 then
(a) p =1, q=0 (b) p = 2/3, q = ½
(c) There are infinitely many values of p and q (d) All of the above
Solution
Let A, B and C be the events that the student is successful in test I, II and III respectively, then P (the student is
successful)
are independent]
This equation has infinitely many values of p and q.
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∴ Ans. (c)
Example 9
Let p denotes the probability that a man aged x years will die in a year. The probability that out of n men A1,
A2, A3 ....... An each aged x, A1 will die in a year and will be the first to die, is
(a) (b) (c) (d) None of these
Solution
Let Ei denotes the event that Ai dies in a year
Then
P (none of A1, A2,......A3 dies in a year) =
because E1, E2, ..... En are independent

Let E denotes the event that at least one of the man dies in a year.
Then
Let F denotes the event that A1 is the first to die.
Then Also
∴ Ans. (a)
Example 10
A man takes a step forward with probability 0.4 and backward with probability 0.6. The probability that at the
end of eleven steps he is one step away from the starting point is
(a) (b) (c) (d) None of these
Solution
The man will be one step away from the starting point if (i) either he is one step ahead or (ii) one step behind
the starting point.
∴ The required probability = P(i) + P(ii)
The man will be one step ahead at the end of eleven steps if he moves six step forward and five steps backward.
The probability of this event is

The man will be one step behind at the end of eleven steps if he moves six steps backward and five steps
forward.
The probability of this event is

Hence the required probability
∴ Ans. (a)
*****
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Example 1
A set of 3 numbers are chosen from the set of numbers 1, 2, 3,....., (2n + 1). What is the probability that the
numbers chosen are in A.P.?
Solution
Any three numbers can be chosen in ways. Regarding the favourable cases; if three numbers a, b, c
chosen are to be in A.P. then a + c = 2b. Thus the sum of the extremes being 2b should be always even. The two
extreme numbers given are both odd and hence there are (n + 1) odd numbers and there are n even numbers.
⇒ Required probability is
Example 2
If A, B, C are events such that P(A) = 0.3; P(B) = 0.4; P(C) = 0.8; P(AB) = 0.08; P(AC) = 0.28; P(ABC) = 0.09 and if
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) ≥ 0.75, then show that P(BC) lies in the interval 0.23 ≤ x ≤ 0.48.
Solution
Let P(BC) = x
i.e., P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P(CA) + P(ABC) ≥ 0.75
i.e., 0.3 + 0.4 + 0.8 – 0.08 – 0.28 – x + 0.09 ≥ 0.75
i.e., x ≤ 0.48
Also
∴ 0.3 + 0.4 + 0.8 – 0.08 – 0.28 – x + 0.09 ≤ 1
∴ 0.23 ≤ x ≤ 0.48
Example 3
Bag A contains 2 white and 3 red balls and bag B contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is drawn at random
from one of the bags and is found to be red.
Find the probability that it was drawn from bag B.
Solution
Let the event of drawing a red ball be denoted by L
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and the event of choosing bag A be denoted by M

and the event of choosing bag B be denoted by N.
We have
Now P(L/M) = Probability of drawing a red ball from bag

Required probability = P(N/L)
(Baye’s formula).
Example 4
Cards are drawn one by one at random from a well-shuffled full pack of 52 cards until 2 aces are obtained for
the first time. If N is the number of cards required to be drawn, then show that the probability of obtaining 2
aces when N is equal to n is where 2 ≤ n ≤ 50.
Solution
Suppose N = 2, (i.e.) the number of cards to be drawn is 2.
In this case, both the cards have to be aces.
∴ Probability
Suppose N = 3
In this case, 2 aces and 1 non-ace have to be drawn.
It could be (NA).A A or A(NA) A
and the probability

Suppose N = 4
Probability
(In this case, the first ace can be in the first or second or third draw)
Similarly when N = n, (nth draw is a definite ace and the first ace can be in any one of the first (n – 1) draws.
Probability
Alternatively
Probability of making n draws until two aces appear
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The first factor is the probability of drawing (n – 2) non-aces and one ace in the first (n – 1) draws while the
second factor is the probability of drawing an ace in the nth draw.
Example 5
Suppose A and B are two equally strong table tennis players. Which of the following two events is more
probable?
(a) A beats B in exactly 3 games out of 4 or (b) A beats B in exactly 5 games out of 8
Solution
Since A and B are equally strong players, the probability that A beats B is 1/2 and the probability that A loses to
B is also 1/2.
(a) A beats B in exactly three games out of 4.
In this case, A has to lose one game and win three for which the probability is
(b) A beats B in exactly 5 games out of 8.
In this case, A has to lose 3 games out of 8.
⇒ Probability
Now
Hence, the first event is more probable than the second.
Example 6
A sportsman’s chance of shooting an animal at a distance r(> a) is a2/r2 He fires when r = 2a and if he misses, he
reloads and fires when r = 3a, 4a, 5a..... If he misses at a distance na, the animal escapes. What are the odds
against the sportsman?
Solution
etc.
The sportsman succeeds if
(a) he hits the first time or
(b) misses the first time but succeeds at the second or
(c) misses the first and second time but succeeds in the third and so on.
∴ probability of success, p .
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∴ odds against the sportsman
Example 7
Of three independent events, the chance that only the first occurs is a, that only the second occurs is b, and that
only the third occurs is c. Show that the probabilities of occurrence of these three events are respectively
where x is a root of the equation
Solution
Let E1, E2, E3 be three independent events and be their complements. Then
..(i)
since E1, E2, E3 are independent.
..(ii)
and …(iii)
Denote by x
Then, this implies
or
Similarly, we get ..(iv)

Multiplying (i), (ii) and (iii), we get
Example 8
The independent probabilities that, A, B and C solve a Mathematical problem are respectively.
Find the probability that just two of them solve the problem.
Solution
Given that and A, B, C are independent events.

Required probability
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Example 9
An unbiased coin is tossed. If the result is head, a pair of unbiased dice is rolled and the number obtained by
adding the numbers on the two faces is noted. If the result is a tail, a card from a well shuffled pack of eleven
cards numbered 2, 3 ..... 12 is picked and the number on the card is noted. What is the probability that the noted
number is either 7 or 8?
Solution
Let E1 be the event ‘‘toss results in a head’’,
E2 be the event ‘‘toss results in a tail’’
A be the event ‘‘the noted number is 7 or 8’’
We have
Also
Since and
We know that
Example 10
On a straight line of length a two points are taken at random. Find the chance that no part is greater than b.
Solution
Let AB = a, AP = x and BQ = y.
For favourable cases,
x < b, y < b and a – x – y < b ...(i)
For all possible cases,
...(ii)
The ΔOXY where X = (a, 0), Y = (0, a) represents all cases.
Let M be (0, b), N be (b, 0) and equation of KL be x + y = a – b.
Then the region KLNQPM represents the favourable cases.
Two cases arise.
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Case I :
The conditions of (i) are represented by the region KLNQPM in figure
and hence
since OL = a – b, NX = a – b and MY = a – b
Case II :
In this case, the favourable conditions correspond to the shaded region

ABC
CA = NA – NC
since (ON, NC) satisfies the equation x + y = a – b

= 3b – a
∴ probability
*****
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Exercise - I
True/False
1. For any two events A and B, P(A ∪ B) = , if A and B are disjoint.
2. A and B play a game where each is asked to select one number from 1 to 10. The probability that both the
numbers are same is 1/10.
3. For any two events, A and B, P(A/B) ≥ P(A) + P(B).
4. Let A and B be two events such that P(A) = 0.3 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.8. If A and B are independent events, then
P(B) is 5/7.
5. The probability that in a group of n boys, at least two boys have the same birthday is
Fill in the Blanks
1. If k objects are distributed at random among k persons, then the probability that at least one of them will
not get anything is ___________.
2. In shuffling a pack of cards, four accidentally are dropped. The probability that the four are one from each
suit is ___________.
3. 16 coins are tossed simultaneously. The chance of getting at least 14 heads is________.
4. A five digit number is formed by the digits 1,2,3,4,5 without repetition. The probability that the number
formed is divisible by 4 is ___________.
5. An urn contains 5 balls. Two balls are drawn and found to be white. The probability that all are white is
___________.
Assertion and Reason

In the following questions, a statement of Assertion (A) is given which is followed by a corresponding
statement of Reason (R). Mark the correct answer out of the following options/codes.
(a) If both (A) and (R) are true and (R) is the correct explanation of (A).
(b) If both (A) and (R) are true but R is not the correct explanation of (A).
(c) If (A) is true but (R) is false.
(d) If both (A) and (R) are false.
(e) If (A) is false but (R) is true.
1. A: If E and F are two events of same random experiment such that P(E) ≤ P(F), then E ⊆ F.
R: If E and F are two events of same random experiment such that P(E) ≤ P(F), then n(E) ≤ n(F).
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2. A: The Probability of getting two heads in 10 throws of a coin is 45/210

R: Binomial distribution is applicable when the number of trials are finite and the probability of success
is constant in each trial.
3. A: For two independent events A and B,
R: and
4. A: Let H1, H2….Hn be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events with P(Hi)>0, i=1,2..n. Let E be any
other event with 0 < P(E) < 1, then P(Hi /E) > P(E/ Hi).P(Hi) for i =1,2,3…n
R:
5. A: Let 0 < P(A) < 1, and 0 < P(B) < 1 where A and B are independent events then
R: If
*****
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Exercise - II
Level – I
1. The probability of drawing a ticket having a number, which is a multiple of 3 or a multiple of 7 from the 20
tickets numbered 1, 2, 3 ......, 20 is
(a) (b) (c) (d) 0
2. n ( ≥ 3) persons are sitting in a row. Two of them are selected at random. The probability that they are not
together is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

3. Fifteen coupons are numbered 1, 2, ...., 15. Seven coupons are selected at random, with replacement. The
probability that the largest number appearing on a selected coupon is 9 is
(a) (9/16)6 (b) (8/15)7 (c) (3/5)7 – (8/15)7 (d) none of these
4. If M and N are any two events, the probability that exactly one of them occurs is
(a) P(M) + P(N) – 2 P(M ∪ N) (b) P(M) + P(N) – P(M ∪ N)
(c) P(Mc) + P(Nc) – 2 P(Mc ∪ Nc) (d) P(M) + P(N) – 2P (M ∩ N)
5. E and F are independent events such that 0 < P (E) < 1 and 0 < P (F) < 1. Then which of the following is not
true
(a) E and F are mutually exclusive (b) E and Fc are independent
(c) Ec and Fc are independent (d) P(E/F) + P(E/Fc) = 2P(E)
6. If A and B are any two independent events such that and P(A ∪ B) = 0.8 then the
value of p is
(a) 5/7 (b) 1 (c) 2/7 (d) 3/7
7. The chance that the vowels are separated in an arrangement of the letters of the word “HORROR” is
(a) 1/2 (b) 2/3 (c) ¾ (d) none
8. A box contains 24 identical balls of which 12 are white and 12 are black. The balls are drawn at random
from the box one at a time with replacement. The probability that a white ball is drawn for the 4th time on
the 7th draw is
(a) 5/64 (b) 5/32 (c) 27/32 (d) 1/2
9. 13 cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards. The probability that exactly 8 of them are of the same suit is
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(a) (b) (c) (d)

10. The numbers 1, 2, 3...., 100 are arranged in a line at random order. The probability that the digits
1, 2, .... 50 appear such that the difference between any two consecutive neighbours among them is unity.
(a) (b) (c) (d)

11. Two numbers x and y are chosen at random (without replacement) from among the numbers 1, 2, 3,
.... 99. The probability that x3 – y3 is divisible by 3 is
(a) 1/3 (b) 1/6 (c) 2/3 (d) 1/2
12. A fair coin is tossed n times. If the probability of getting 7 heads is equal to the probability of getting 9
heads then the probability of getting 3 heads is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

13. The probability that a ship is wrecked by enemies whole on water is 1/5. The probability that out of 5
ships, at least 4 will arrive safe after the journey is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

14. Three of the six vertices of a regular hexagon are chosen at random. The probability that the triangle with
these vertices is equilateral is
(a) 3/5 (b) 1/10 (c) 3/10 (d) 1/2
15. Four integers are selected at random and are multiplied. The probability of this product being divisible by
5 but not by 10, is equal to
(a) (b) (c) (d)

16. P is any point (x, y) within and on the circle x2 + y2 = r2. The probability that the point A is such that it is
above the line y = mx is
(a) (b) 1/2 (c) (d)

17. If the sum of the ordinate and the abscissa of a point P(x, y) is 2n, where x and y are natural numbers. The
probability that the number does not lie on the line y = x is equal to
(a) (b) (c) (d) none of these

18. The probability that a student is not a swimmer is 1/5. The probability that out of 5 students, 4 are
swimmers is

19. A person writes 4 letters and addresses 4 envelopes. If the letters are placed in the envelopes at random,
the probability that all letters are not placed in the right envelopes is
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(a) 1/24 (b) 11/24 (c) 15/24 (d) 23/24
20. Twelve distinct balls are distributed among three distinct boxes. The probability that the first box contains
3 balls is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

21. Out of 13 applicants for a job, there are 5 women and 8 men. It is desired to select 2 persons for the job. The
probability that at least one of the selected persons will be a women is
(a) 25/39 (b) 14/39 (c) 5/13 (d) 3/10
22. If n positive integers are taken at random and multiplied together, then the probability that the last digit of
the product is 2, 4, 6, or 8 is
(a) (b) (c) (d)
23. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then must be equal to
(a) (b) (c) (d)

24. Three faces of a fair die are yellow, two faces red and one blue. The die is tossed three times. The
probability that the colours, yellow, red and blue, appear in the first, second and the third tosses
respectively is
(a) 1/36 (b) 5/36 (c) 7/36 (d) 1/2
25. Six dice are thrown. The probability of getting a total of 34 must be
(a) (b) (c) (d)
Level - II
26. 6 married couples are standing in a room. If 4 people are chosen at random, then the chance that exactly
one married couple is among the 4 is
(a) 16/33 (b) 8/33 (c) 17/33 (d) 24/33
27. A quadratic equation is chosen from the set of all quadratic equations which are unchanged by squaring
their roots. The chance that the chosen equation has equal roots is
(a) 1/2 (b) 1/3 (c) 1/4 (d) 2/3
28. A die is thrown three times. The chance that the highest number shown on the die is 4 is
(a) 19/27 (b) 1/216 (c) 37/216 (d) 19/216
29. 7 persons are stopped on the road at random and asked about their birthdays. If the probability that 3 of
them are born on Wednesday, 2 on Thursday and the remaining 2 on Sunday is K/2401, then K is equal to
(a) 15 (b) 30 (c) 105 (d) 210
30. A drawer contains 5 brown socks and 4 blue socks well mixed up. A man reaches the drawer and pulls out
two socks at random. The probability that they match is
(a) 4/9 (b) 5/8 (c) 5/9 (d) 7/12
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31. A box contains a normal coin and a doubly headed coin. A coin selected at random and tossed twice, fell
headwise on both the occasions. The probability that the drawn coin is a doubly headed coin is
(a) 2/3 (b) 5/8 (c) 3/4 (d) 4/5
32. A book contains 1000 pages. A page is chosen at random. The probability that the sum of the digits of the
marked number on the page is equal to 9 is
33. Let p denotes the probability that in a group of 4 persons all are born on different days of the week, then p
must lie in the interval

34. A pair of numbers is picked up randomly (without replacement) from the set {1,2,3,5,7,11,12,13,17,19}. The
probability that the number 11 was picked given that the sum of the numbers was even is nearly
(a) 0.1 (b) 0.125 (c) 0.24 (d) 0.18
35. An examination consists of 8 questions in each of which one of the 5 alternatives is the correct one. On the
assumption that a candidate who has done no preparatory work chooses for each questions any one of the
five alternatives with equal probability, the probability that he gets more than one correct answer is equal
to
(a) (0.8)8 (b) 3(0.8)8 (c) 1 - (0.8)8 (d) 1- 3(0.8)8
36. A child throws 2 fair dice. If the numbers showing are unequal, he adds them together to get his final
score. On the other hand, if the numbers showing are equal, he throws 2 more dice and adds all 4 numbers
showing to get his final score. The probability that his final score is 4 is
(a) 1/8 (b) 1/12 (c) 1/9 (d) 73/1296
37. A point is chosen at random inside a rectangle measuring 3 cm by 5 cm. The probability that the point is
atleast 1 cm from the edges is
38. 3 firemen, X, Y and Z shoot at a common target. The probabilities that X and Y can hit the target are 2/3
and ¾ respectively. If the probability that exactly two bullets are found on the target is 11/24, then the
proficiency of Z to hit the target is
39. A and B throw a dice. The probability that A’s throw is not greater than B’s is
(a) 5/18 (b) 13/18 (c) 5/12 (d) 7/12
40. From a well shuffled pack of 52 playing cards a card is drawn, its outcome is noted and then replaced. The
process is continued indefinitely till a heart is obtained for the first time. The probability that an even
number of draws will be needed is
(a) 3/7 (b) 4/7 (c) 1/2 (d) 9/16
41. Let EC denote the complement of an event E. Let E, F, G be pairwise independent events with P(G) > 0 and
P(E ∩ F ∩ G) = 0. Then P((EC ∩ FC)/G) equals
(a) P(EC) + P(FC) (b) P(EC) - P(FC) (c) P(EC) – P(F) (d) P(E) - P(FC)
42. If A and B are two independent events, each with probability p, (p≠0) then P(A/A∪ B) is
(a) 1/p (b) 1/2 (c) 2/p (d) 1/(2-p)
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43. If A and B are two events such that P(A) = 0.6 and P(B) = 0.8, then the greatest value that P(A/B) can have
is
(a) 0.70 (b) 0.75 (c) 0.80 (d) 1
44. An unbiased cubic die marked with 1,2,2,3,3,3 is rolled 3 times. The probability of getting a total score of 4
or 6 is

45. A letter is chosen at random out of “ASSININE” and one is chosen random out of “ASSASSIN”. The
chance that the same letter is chosen on both occasions is
*****
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Exercise - III
1. The probabilities of events, A ∩ B, A, B, and A ∪ B are respectively in A.P. with second term equal to the
common difference. Therefore A and B are
(a) mutually exclusive (b) independent (c) such that one of them must occur
(d) such that one is twice as likely as the other
2. The germination of seeds is estimated by a probability of 0.6. The probability that out of 11 sown seeds
exactly 5 or 6 will spring is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

3. A bag initially contains one red and two blue balls. An experiment consisting of selecting a ball at random,
noting its colour and replacing it together with an additional ball of the same colour. If there such trials are
made, then
(a) probability that atleast one blue ball is drawn is 0.9.
(b) probability that exactly one blue ball is drawn is 0.2.
(c) probability that all the drawn balls are red given that all the drawn balls are of same colour is 0.2
(d) probability that atleast one red ball is drawn is 0.6.
4. Two real numbers, x and y are selected at random. Given that 0 ≤ x ≤ 1; 0 ≤ y ≤ 1. Let A be the event that y2
≤ x; B be the event that x2 ≤ y, then
(a) (b) A and B are exhaustive events

(c) A and B are mutually exclusive (d) A and B are independent events.
5. If A and B are two events such that P(B) ≠ 1, BC denotes the event complementary to B, then
(a) (b)
C
(c) P(A) > < P(A/B) according as P(A/B ) > < P(A) (d) P(A/BC) + P(AC/BC) =1
6. Let 0 < P(A) < 1, 0 < P(B) < 1 and P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A) P(B)
(a) P(B – A) = P(B) – P(A) (b) P(A′ ∪ B′) = P(A′) + P(B′)
(c) P((A ∪ B)′) = P(A′) + P(B′) (d) P(A/B) = P(A)

7. Let P(n) be the probability of getting n heads when a coin is tossed m times, if P(4), P(5), P(6) are in A.P.
then the possible values of m could be
(a) 10 (b) 11
(c) 7 (d) 14
8. A number is chosen at random from the set of integers 1, 2, 3,......n. Let A and B be the events that the
number drawn is divisible by 2 and 3 respectively. Then
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(a) A and B are always independent (b) A and B are independent if n = 6k
(c) A and B are dependent if n = 10 (d) A and B are independent if n = 6k + 2
9. A and B throw a dice n times each. Let pr be the probability that they never get 6 simultaneously in the first
r trials (r ≤ n), then
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
10. Let A, B, C be three mutually independent events. Consider the two statements S1 and S2.
S1 : A and B ∪ C are independent,
S2 : A and B ∩ C are independent. Then

(a) Both S1 and S2 are true (b) Only S2 is true
(c) S1 is true (d) Neither S1 and S2 is true
11. If are the complementary events of E and F respectively and if 0 < P(F) < 1, then
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
12. The probabilities that a student passes in Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry are m, p and c respectively.
Of these subjects, the student has a 75% chance of passing in at least one, a 50% chance of passing in at
least two, and a 40% chance of passing in exactly two. Which of the following relations are true?
(a) (b) (c) (d)

13. Which of the following statement in probability are correct?
(a)
(b) if A and B are independent events.

(c) The product of n positive number is unity. Then their sum is never less than n.
(d) The binomial theorem in probability (q + p)n is applicable only when the trials are independent.
14. A and B are independent events such that , , then P(A) is

(a) 1/5 (b) 2/5 (c) 3/5 (d) 4/5
15. For any two given events, A and B, P(A ∩ B) is
(a) not les than P(A) + P(B) -1 (b) not greater than P(A) + P(B)
(c) equal to P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) (d) equal to P(A) + P(B) + P(A ∩ B)
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16. A and B are two events, probability that exactly one of them occurs is given by
(a) P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) (b) P(AB′) + P(A’B)
(c) (d) P(A) + P(B) - 2P(AB)
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17. A and B are two independent events. The probability that both A and B occur is 1/20 and the probability
that neither of them occurs is 3/5. The probability of the occurrence of A is
(a) ¼ (b) 1/5 (c) ½ (d) 1/10
18. Which of the following statements are true. If A and B are independent?
(a) are independent (b) are independent
(c) are independent (d) none of these
19. If A and B are two events, such that , then
(a) (b) (c) (d)
20. If A and B are independent events such that and , then P(B) =
(a) 0.776 (b) 0.66 (c) 0.25 (d) 0.50
*****
-133-
Exercise - IV
Passage – I
There are n urns each containing (n+1) balls such that the ith urn contains ‘i' white balls and (n +1 –i) red balls.
Let ui be the event of selecting ith urn, i = 1,2,3….n and W denotes the event of getting a white ball.
1. If , where i = 1,2,3…..n then is equal to

(a) 1 (b) 2/3 (c) 1/4 (d) ¾
2. If , where c is a constant, then is equal to
(a) (b) (c) (d)
3. If n is even and E denotes that event of choosing even numbered urn , then the value of
P(W/E) is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

Passage – II
Set A consists of a n elements. A subset of A is chosen at random. Set A is reconstructed replacing the elements
of P and subset Q is chosen. Then the probability that
1. A ∩ B contains exactly two elements is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

2. A ∩ B contains at least (n -2) elements is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

3. A ∪ B = φ is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

4. A ∪ B contains exactly one element is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

Passage – III
Words are formed using all letters of the word “INTERMEDIATE”, then the probability that
1. The words neither begin with I nor end with I is
2. The vowels and consonants alternate in the words.
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3. The vowels are always consecutive
4. The relative order of vowels and consonants doesn’t change
Matching Type Questions

1. Match the following
Column I Column II
(A) Three houses are available in a locality. Three (P) 7/9
persons apply for the houses. Each applies for
one house without consulting others. The
probability that all the three apply for the same
house is
(B) An experiment can result in only 3 mutually (Q) 6/11
exclusive events A, B and C. If P(A) = 2P(B)
= 3P(C), then P(A) =
(C) Consider all functions that can be defined from (R) 7/25
the set A = {1,2,3,} to the set B = {1,2,3,4,5}. A
function f(x) is selected at random from these
functions. The probability that selected function
satisfies f(i) ≤ f(j) for i < j is equal to
(D) A coin is tossed three times in succession. If E is (S) 3/4
the event that there are at least two heads and F
is the event in which first throw is a head, then
P(E/F) is
(a) A-P, B-Q, C-R, D-S (b) A-R, B-S, C-P, D-Q
(c) A-S, B-R, C-P, D-Q (d) A-R B-Q C-P, D-S
Column I Column II
(A) Three prizes are distributed among six children. (P) 37/256
The probability that none gets all the prizes is
(B) If two squares are chosen on a chess board, (Q) 1/18
the probability that they have a side in
common is
(C) 8 coins are tossed all together. The probability (R) 35/36
of getting at least 6 heads is
(D) A pair of dice is rolled until a total of 5 or 9 (S) 1/2
is obtained. The probability that 9 comes before
5 is
(a) A-R, B-Q, C-S, D-P (b) A-P, B-Q, C-R, D-S
(c) A-S, B-R, C-P, D-Q (d) A-R, B-Q, C-P, D-S
-135-

Column I Column II
(A) A purse contains n coins of unknown values. (P)

A coin is drawn at random from the purse and
is found to be a rupee. The probability that this
was the only one-rupee coin in the purse is
(B) Two persons A and B have respectively n +1 (Q) 1/2
and n coins which they toss simultaneously.
The probability that A will have more heads
than B will have, is
(C) I write a letter to one of my friends and do not (R)

receive a reply. It is known that out of ‘n’ letters,
exactly one does not reach its destination.
Assuming that it is certain that my friend would
have replied if he had received my letter, the
probability that my friend has received my letter is
(D) A woman has ‘n’ keys of which one will open her (S) 1/n
door. If she tries the keys randomly, discarding
those that do not work (without using the
discarded key again), the probability that she
will open the door with
the last key is
(a) A-R, B-Q, C-S, D-P (b) A-R, B-S, C-P, D-Q
(c) A-P, B-Q, C-R, D-S (d) A-R, B-Q, C-P, D-S
Column I Column II
(A) A, B and C take one shot each at a target. Their (P) 3/5
probabilities of hitting the target are respectively
0.4, 0.5 and 0.8. The probability that at least two
of them hit the target is
(B) The probability that a man can hit a target is 3/4. (Q) 459/512
He tries 5 times. The probability that he will hit the
target at least 3 times is
(C) If on an average 2 ships in every 10, sinks. The (R) 2944/3125
probability that out of 5 ships expected to arrive,
at least three will arrive safely, is
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(D) A determinant is chosen at random from the set (S) 3/8
of all determinants of order 2 with elements 0 and
1 only. The probability that the determinant chosen
is non-zero is
(E) In the Mahabharat war, Arjun shot 10 Arrows (T)

towards Karna. The probability that any one of
these will strike Karna, is 3/5. The chance that
less than 3 arrows will strike Karna is
(a) A-T, B-Q, C-R, D-S, E-P (b) A-T, S, B-Q, C-R, D-S, E-P
(c) A-Q, B-T, C-R, D-S, E-P (d) A-P, B-Q C-R, D-S, E-T
Column I Column II
(A) If x ∈ N, the probability that the sum of all the (P) 0
digits of x2 will be 33 is
(B) Two fair dice are rolled simultaneously. It is (Q) 1/5
found that one of them shows odd prime
numbers. The probability that the remaining
dice also shows an odd prime number, is
equal to
(C) If 6 boys and 6 girls sit in a row randomly, (R) 1/132
the probability that all the 6 girls sit together,
is
(D) One card is drawn at random from a full (S) 7/13
pack of playing cards. The probability that
this card is either black or king is
(E) If 10 persons are seated at a round table, the (T) 2/9
probability that two specified persons shall be
slitting together is
(a) A-P, B-Q C-R, D-S, E-T (b) A-T, S, B-Q, C-R, D-S, E-P
(c) A-Q, B-T, C-R, D-S, E-P (d) A-P, B-Q C-R, D-S, E-T, P
*****
-137-
Exercise - V
1. An urn contains 5 balls. Two balls are drawn and found to be White. What is the probability that all are
White?
2. If two events A and B are such that and find P(B/(A ∪ Bc)).
3. A five digit number is formed by the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 without repetition. Find the probability that the
number formed is divisible by 4.
4. Three squares are chosen at random upon a chess board. What is the probability that they are in a diagonal
line?
5. A lot of 100 bulbs from a manufacturing process is known to contain 10 defective and 90 non-defective
bulbs. If a sample of 8 bulbs be selected at random, what is the probability that the sample has
(i) 3 defective and 5 non-defective bulbs?
(ii) at least one defective bulb?
6. Out of n persons seated at a round table, three persons are chosen at random. What is the probability that
no two are seated next to each other?
7. There are eleven persons of whom A and B are two. If they are seated in a row, find the probability that
there are exactly five persons between A and B.
8. There are two bags one of which contains 3 Black and 4 White balls while the second one contains 4 Black
and 3 White balls. A die is cast. If the face 1 or 3 turns up, a ball is chosen from the first bag, otherwise the
ball is chosen from the second bag. Find the probability that a Black ball is chosen.
9. A floor is paved with rectangular blocks each of length a cm and breadth b cm. A circular block of
diameter r cm, where r < a, b is thrown on the floor. Find the probability that it falls entirely on one lattice.
10. A die is loaded such that the probability of throwing the number i is proportional to i2. Find the
probability that the number 5 has appeared given that when the die is rolled the number that turned up is
not even.
11. A and B play with two dice on the condition that A wins if he throws 6 before B throws 8 and B wins if he
throws 8 before A throws 6. Prove that the ratio of the probability of A winning to that of B winning is 36 :
31.
12. If four whole numbers are taken at random and multiplied together, find the probability that the last digit
of the product is 1, 3, 5, 7 or 9.
13. There are 100 tickets numbered from 1 to 100. Three tickets are drawn at random. Find the probability that
the numbers in the tickets are in G.P.
14. Three players A, B, C toss a coin cyclically in that order that is ABCABCAB.... till a head is got. Let p be the
probability that a coin shows a head. Let α, β, γ by respectively the probabilities that A, B, C get the first
head. Prove that β = (1 – p) α. Determine α, β, γ in terms of p.
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15. Sixteen players S1, S2,...... S16 play in a tournament. They are divided into eight pairs at random. From
each pair a winner is decided on th basis of a game played between the two players of the pair. Assume
that all the players are of equal strength.
(a) Find the probability that the players S1 is among the eight winners.
(b) Find the probability that exactly one of the two players S1 and S2 is among the eight winners.
16. Three fair dice are thrown together. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers appearing on the dice
is not more than 12 and not less than 8.
17. A pack of cards is counted face downwards and it is found that one card is missing. Three cards are drawn
and found to be spades. What is the probability that the missing card is a spade?
18. Two non-negative integers are chosen at random and squared. What is the probability that the sum of the
squares is divisible by 5?
19. A bag contains (2n + 1) coins. It is known that n of these have a head on both the sides, whereas the
remaining (n + 1) coins are fair. A coin is picked up at random from the bag and tossed. If the probability
that the toss results in a head is 31/42, find the value of n.
20. In how many ways three girls and nine boys can be seated in two vans, each having numbered seats, 3 in
the front and 4 at the back? How many seating arrangements are possible if 3 girls should sit together in a
back row on adjacent seats? Now, if all the seating arrangements are equally likely, what is the probability
of 3 girls sitting together in a back row on adjacent seats?
21. An urn contains m white and n black balls. A ball is drawn at random and is put back into the urn along
with k additional balls of the same colour as that of the ball drawn. A ball is again drawn at random. What
is the probability that the ball drawn now is white?
22. Eight players P1, P2…P8 play a knock-out tournament. It is known that whenever the players Pi and Pj play,
the player Pi will win if i < j. Assuming that the players are paired at random in each round, what is the
probability that the player P4 reaches the final?
23. A coin has probability p of showing head when tossed. It is tossed n times. Let Pn denote the probability
that no two (or more) consecutive heads occur. Prove that p1 =1, p2 = 1 – p2 and
pn = (1-p) . for all n ≥ 3.
24. Water level of a cylindrical vessel of height 15 cm is initially 10 cms. Stones of a particular volume are
dropped so that initially the level rises 2 cms and finally settles to an increase of 1 cm. If the probability
that any stone dropped goes inside the vessel is ‘p’, then find the probability that water spills out of vessel
at nth throw.
*****
-139-
Exercise - VI
A. Fill in the blanks

1. For a biased die the probabilities for the different faces to turn up are given below:
Face 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 0.1 0.32 0.21 0.15 0.05 0.17
This die is tossed and you are told that either face 1 or face 2 has turned up. Then the probability that it is
face 1 is…..
2. A determinant is chosen at random from the set of all determinants of order 2 with elements 0 or 1 only.
The probability that the value of the determinant chosen is positive is
3. Urn A contains 6 red and 4 black balls and urn B contains 4 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at
random from urn A and placed in urn B. Then one ball is drawn at random from urn B and placed in urn
A. If one ball is now drawn at random from urn A, the probability that is is found to be red is____
4. A pair of fair dice is rolled together till a sum of either 5 or 7 is obtained. Then the probability that
5 comes before 7 is…..
5. If the mean and the variance of a binomial variate X are 2 and 1 respectively, then the probability that X
takes a value greater than one is equal to ……….
6. Three numbers are chosen at random without replacement from {1,2….10}. The probability that the
minimum of the chosen number is 3, or their maximum is 7, is………
B. True/False
7. If the letters of the word “ ASSASSIN” are written down at random in a row, the probability that no two
S’s occur together is 1/35.
8. If the probability for A to fail in an examination is 0.2 and that of B is 0.3, then the probability that either A
or B fails is 0.5.
C. Multiple Choice Questions with ONE correct option
9. Two events A and B have probabilities 0.25 and 0.50 respectively. The probability that both A and B occur
simultaneously is 0.14. Then the probability that neither A nor B occurs is
(a) 0.39 (b) 0.25 (c) 0.11 (d) none of these
10. The probability that an event A happens in one trial of an experiment is 0.4. Three independent trials of
the experiments are performed. The probability that the event A happens at least once is
(a) 0.936 (b) 0.784 (c) 0.904 (d) none of these
11. If A and B are two independent events such that P(A) > 0, and P(B) ≠ 1, then is equal to
(a) (b) (c) (d)

12. Three identical dice are rolled. The probability that the same number will appear on each of them is
(a) 1/6 (b) 1/36 (c) 1/18 (d) 3/28
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13. The probability that at least one of the events A and B occurs is 0.6. If A and B occur simultaneously with
probability 0.2, then is

(a) 0.4 (b) 0.8 (c) 1.2 (d) 1.4
14. India plays two matches each with West Indies and Australia. In any match the probabilities of India
getting points 0, 1 and 2 are 0.45, 0.05 and 0.50 respectively. Assuming that the outcomes are independent,
the probability of India getting at least 7 point is
(a) 0.8750 (b) 0.0875 (c) 0.0625 (d) 0.0250
15. Let
and , then
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
16. The probability of India winning a test match against West Indies is 1/2. Assuming independence from
match to match the probability that in a 5 match series India’s second win occurs at third test is
(a) 1/8 (b) ¼ (c) ½ (d) 2/3
17. For the three events A, B and C, P (exactly one of the events A or B occurs) = P (exactly one of the events B
or C occurs) = P (exactly one of the events C or A occurs) = p and P (all the three events occurs
simultaneously) = p2, where 0 < p < ½. Then the probability of at least one of the three events A, B and C
occurring is
(a) (b) (c) (d)

18. If from each of the three boxes containing 3 white and 1 black, 2 white and 2 black, 1 white and 3 black
balls, one ball is drawn at random, then the probability that 2 white and 1 black balls will be drawn is
(a) 13/32 (b) ¼ (c) 1/32 (d) 3/16
19. There are four machines and it is known that exactly two of them are faulty. The are tested, one by one, in
a random order till both the faulty machines are identified. Then the probability that only two tests are
needed is
(a) 1/3 (b) 1/6 (c) ½ (d) ¼
20. A fair coin is tossed repeatedly. If tail appears on first four tosses, then the probability of head appearing
on fifth toss equals
(a) 1/2 (b) 1/32 (c) 31/32 (d) 1/5
21. Seven white balls and three black balls are randomly placed in a row. The probability that no two black
balls are placed adjacently equals
(a) ½ (b) 7/15 (c) 2/15 (d) 1/3
22. If E and F are events with P(E) ≤ P(F) and P(E ∩ F) > 0, then
(a) occurrence of E ⇒ occurrence of F (b) occurrence of F ⇒ occurrence of E
(c) non-occurrence of E ⇒ non-occurrence of F (d) none of the above

23. If the integers m and n are chosen at random between 1 and 100, then the probability that a number of the
form 7m + 7n is divisible by 5, equals
-141-
(a) 1/4 (b) 1/7 (c) 1/8 (d) 1/49

24. A fair die is rolled. The probability that the first time 1 occurs at the even throw is
(a) 1/6 (b) 5/11 (c) 6/11 (d) 5/36
D. Multiple Choice Questions with (ONE or MORE THAN ONE) correct options
25. If M and N are any two events, the probability that exactly one of them occurs is
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
26. If E and F are independent events such that 0 < P(E) < 1 and 0 < P(F) < 1, then
(a) E and F are mutually exclusive
(b) E and FC (the complement of the event F) are independent
(c) EC and FC are independent
(d) P(E|F) + P(EC | F) = 1
27. For any two events A and B in a sample space
(a) is always true
(b) does not hold
(c) , if A and B are independent
(d) , if A and B are disjoint

28. Let E and F be two independent events. The probability that both E and F happen is 1/12 and the
probability that neither E nor F happen is ½. Then
(a) P(E) = 1/3, P(F) = ¼ (b) P(E) = 1/2, P(F) = 1/6
(c) P(E) = 1/6, P(F) = ½ (d) P(E) = 1/4, P(F) = 1/3
*****
-142-
Answers
Exercise - I
True/False
1. False 2. True 3. False 4. True 5. False
Fill in the Blanks
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Assertion and Reason
1. (e) 2. (b) 3. (b) 4. (e) 5. (e)
Exercise - II
Only One Option is correct
Level – I
1. (b) 2. (d) 3. (c) 4. (d) 5. (a)
6. (c) 7. (b) 8. (b) 9. (b) 10. (d)
11. (a) 12. (b) 13. (c) 14. (b) 15. (b)
16. (b) 17. (b) 18. (a) 19. (d) 20. (a)
21. (a) 22. (c) 23. (c) 24. (a) 25. (c)
Level – II
26. (a) 27. (a) 28. (c) 29. (b) 30. (a)
31. (d) 32. (b) 33. (a) 34. (c) 35. (d)
36. (d) 37. (c) 38. (c) 39. (d) 40. (a)
41. (c) 42. (d) 43. (b) 44. (b) 45. (b)
Exercise - III
More Than One Choice Correct
1. (a, d) 2. (a, b) 3. (a, b, c, d) 4. (a, b) 5. (a, b, c, d)
6. (c, d) 7. (c, d) 8. (b, c, d) 9. (c, d) 10. (a, c)
11. (a, d) 12. (b, c) 13. (a, c, d) 14. (a, c) 15. (a, b, c)
16. (b, c, d) 17. (a, b) 18. (a, b, c) 19. (b, c, d) 20. (a, c)
Exercise - IV
Passage – I
1. (b) 2. (a) 3. (b)
Passage – II
1. (d) 2. (c) 3. (d) 4. (b)
Passage – III
1. (a) 2. (a) 3. (c) 4. (b)
-143-
Matching Type Questions

1. (a) 2. (b) 3. (c) 4. (d) 5. (a)
Exercise - V
Subjective Type
1. 1/2 2. 0.25 3. 1/5 4. 7/744
5. (i) (ii) 6. 7. 1/11 8. 11/21
9. 10. 5/7 11. () 12. 13.
14. 15. (a) 1/2 (b) 8/15

16. 125/216 17. 10/49 18. 9/25 19. 10 20. 1/91
21. 22. 24.
Exercise - VI
IIT-JEE Level Problem
Section - A
1. 5/21 2. 3/16 3. 328/605 4. 2/5 5. 11/16
6. 11/40
Section - B
7. False 8. False
Section - C
9. (a) 10. (b) 11. (b) 12. (b) 13. (c)
14. (b) 15. (c) 16. (b) 17. (a) 18. (a)
19. (b) 20. (a) 21. (b) 22. (d) 23. (a)
24. (b)
Section - D
25. (a. c) 26. (b c, d) 27. (a, c) 28. (a, d)
*****
-144-

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Chapter 3

Died 17 April 1761

Known for Bayes Theorem

❑ Concept of probability in set Theoretic Language

In particular P(S) = 1 and 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

Total number of ways of 7 persons being seated is ways

3.2 Axiomatic Definition of Probability

● The entire sample space has the probability P(S) = 1

● For mutually exclusive events A and B (A ∩ B = φ), P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B)

3.3 Basic Theories of Probability

3.4 Definition of Various Terms

❑ Mutually Non-Exclusive Events

❑ Exhaustive Number of Cases

(i) and (ii)

(ii) and (ii)

Hence, required probability

(i) with one bowler =

(ii) with two bowlers =

Probability that at least 3 bowlers are in the team =

1. 2. 47/87 3. 9/20 4. 1/35 5.

3.5 Odds In Favour and Odds Against an Event

Thus odds in favour of an event

Similarly, odds against an event

If two dice are tossed, total number of events = 6 × 6 = 36.

3.6 Addition Theorem on Probability

❑ When Events are not Mutually Exclusive

For any three events A, B, C

❑ When Events are Mutually Exclusive

P(A1 + A2 + .... + A2) = P(A1) + P(A2) + ..... + P(An) i.e.

❑ Some Other Theorems

Probability of occurrence of neither A nor B is

❑ Generalization of the Addition Theorem

If all the events are mutually exclusive, then

(i) Only A occurs (i)

(ii) Both A and B, but not C occur (ii)

(v) At least two occurs (v)

(vi) One and no more occurs (vi)

(vii) Exactly two of A, B and C occur (vii)

(viii) None occurs (viii)

(ix) Exactly one of A and B occurs (ix)

in 20 years. Clearly A and B are independent events. ∴

Since A and B are mutually exclusive, so

simultaneously with probability 0.2 then is________.

6. 0.5 7. p1 -2p2 + 3p3 8. 7/10 9. 1.2 10. 0.35

3.7 Conditional Probability

P(A) ≠ 0 or P(A ∩ B) = P(B) . P(A/B), if P(B) ≠ 0.

where represents the conditional probability of the event Ai, given

with a random experiment, then i.e., the probability of simultaneous

By multiplication theorem, we have

By multiplication theorem, we have

Since are independent events, therefore

(ii) Probability of happening at least one of them

3.8 Total Probability Theorem

This result is obtained as

⇒ P(A) = P(A1 ∩ A) + P(A2 ∩ A) + ..... + P(An ∩ A)

3.9 Baye’s Theorem or Inverse Probability

3.10 Probability Distribution

For example, the sample space for a throw of a pair of dice is

random variable X is defined as and the variance of X is defined as

3.11 Binomial Probability Distribution

which is denoted as binomial distribution of random variable X.

(ii) The probability of getting atmost k successes is

(a) Occurrence of the event exactly r times

❑ Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution