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02/03/2023
1.1: Events, Sample Spaces and 1.1: Events, Sample Spaces and
Probability Probability
A sample point is the most basic outcome of A sample space of an experiment is the
an experiment. collection of all sample points.
Roll a single dice:
A Head
S: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A four
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example: example:
A = aces; B = black cards;
A = queen of diamonds; B = queen of clubs C = diamonds; D = hearts
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The probability of rolling an even number is 3 out of 6 or .5 The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 4 or .25 or 25%
or 50%
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Union Intersection
A∪ B A∩B
Either A or B, Both A and B
or both, occur occur
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P ( A) = 1 − P ( AC ) = 1 − 1 4 = 3 4
General Addition Rule: P(Red or Ace) = P(Red) +P(Ace) - P(Red and Ace)
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Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B • The sample space is reduced to only the conditioning event.
P(A) = marginal probability of A • To find P(A), once we know B has occurred (i.e., given B), we ignore BC (including the A
P(B) = marginal probability of B region within BC).
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Multiplication rule for two events A and B: Assume three of ten workers give illegal deductions
Event A: {First worker selected gives an illegal deduction}
P(A ∩ B) = P(B)P(A|B) = P(A)P(B|A) Event B: {Second worker selected gives an illegal deduction}
The conditional probability formula can be rearranged into the Multiplicative Rule of P(A) = P(B) = .3
Probability to find joint probability.
P(B|A) has only nine sample points, and two targeted
workers, since we selected one of the targeted workers in the
Note: first round:
A and B are independent ⇔ P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B) P(B|A) = .22
The probability that both of the first two workers selected will
have given illegal deductions
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B|A) = .(3) (.22) = .066
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Dependent Events Mutually exclusive events are Marginal probability for event A:
P(A|B) ≠ P(A) dependent: P(B|A) = 0 P(A) = P(A|H1 ) P(H1 ) + P(A|H 2 ) P(H 2 ) + ⋯ + P(A|H k ) P(H k )
P(B|A) ≠ P(B) Where H1, H2, …, Hk are k mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events
P( Hi | A) = P( HiA) / P( A) =
P( B1 | A) = P ( B1. A) / P ( A)
P ( Hi ) P ( A | Hi ) P ( B1) P ( A | B1)
=
= P( B1) P ( A | B1) + P( B 2) P ( A | B 2) + P ( B 3) P ( A | B 3)
P( H 1) P( A | H 1) + P ( H 2) P ( A | H 2) + ⋅⋅⋅P ( Hk ) P( A | Hk )
.2 × .4 .08 .08
= = = = .158
(.2 × .4 ) + (.15 × .25) + (.65 × .6 ) .08 + .0375 + .39 .5075
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcvLAw-JRss
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