CHAPTER 5

Probability: What Are

the Chances?
5.2
Probability Rules

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition

Starnes, Tabor, Yates, Moore

Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers

 Probability Models
In Section 5.1, we used simulation to imitate chance behavior. Fortunately, we don’t
have to always rely on simulations to determine the probability of a particular outcome.

Descriptions of chance behavior contain two parts:

The
The sample
sample space
space S
S of
of aa chance
chance process
process is
is the
the set
set of
of all
all
possible
possible outcomes.
outcomes.

AA probability
probability model
model isis aa description
description of
of some
some chance
chance process
process
that
that consists
consists of
of two
two parts:
parts:
••aa sample
sample space
space S S and
and
••aa probability
probability for
for each
each outcome.
outcome.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 2

 Example: Building a probability model

Since the dice are fair, each outcome is equally

Sample Space
likely.
36 Outcomes
Each outcome has probability 1/36.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 3

 Probability Models
Probability models allow us to find the probability of any collection of
outcomes.
An
An event
event is is any
any collection
collection of
of outcomes
outcomes from
from some
some chance
chance
process.
process. That
That is,
is, an
an event
event is
is aa subset
subset of
of the
the sample
sample space.
space.
Events
Events are
are usually
usually designated
designated by by capital
capital letters,
letters, like
like A,
A, B,
B, C,
C, and
and
so
so on.
on.
If A is any event, we write its probability as P(A).

In the dice-rolling example, suppose we define event A as “ sum is 5.”

There are 4 outcomes that result in a sum of 5.

Since each outcome has probability 1/36, P(A) = 4/36.

Suppose event B is defined as “ sum is not 5.” What is P(B)?

P(B) = 1 – 4/36 = 32/36
The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 4
Probability model - Example
Suppose we flip a fair coin and observe the side that
faces up. Let
H = a heads comes up.
T = a tails comes up.
The sample space is {H, T}.
Because we expect both side to face up with equal
probability, we model this as
P(H) = ½
Note: P(H) + P(T) = 1
P(T) = ½ 5
 Basic Rules of Probability
• The probability of any event is a number between 0 and 1.
• All possible outcomes together must have probabilities whose sum is
exactly 1.
• If all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely, the probability that
event A occurs can be found using the formula

• The probability that an event does not occur is 1 minus the probability that
the event does occur.
• If two events have no outcomes in common, the probability that one or the
other occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities.

Two
Two events
events A A and
and B
B are
are mutually
mutually exclusive
exclusive (disjoint)
(disjoint) ifif they
they
have
have nono outcomes
outcomes in
in common
common and
and soso can
can never
never occur
occur together—
together—
that
that is,
is, ifif P(A
P(A and
and B
B )) == 0.
0.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 6

 Basic Rules of Probability
We can summarize the basic probability rules more concisely in symbolic
form.
Basic Probability Rules
•For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
•If S is the sample space in a probability model,
P(S) = 1.
•In the case of equally likely outcomes,

•Complement rule: P(AC) = 1 – P(A)

•Addition rule for mutually exclusive events: If A and B are
mutually exclusive,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 7
Complements: The probability of “at least one”

The complement of getting at least one item of

a particular type is that you get no items of that
type.
Example: When tossing 3 coins, what is the
probability of getting at least one tail?
Answer: P(at least one tail) = 1 - P(no tails)
= 1 - (1/2)3 = 1 - 1/8 = 7/8 or 87.5%.
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 General Addition Rule for Two Events
We can’t use the addition rule for mutually exclusive events unless the events have
no outcomes in common.

General Addition Rule for Two Events

If A and B are any two events resulting from some chance process,
then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 9

 Venn Diagrams and Probability
Because Venn diagrams have uses in other branches of mathematics, some
standard vocabulary and notation have been developed.

The complement AC contains exactly the outcomes that are not in A.

The events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) because they do not
overlap. That is, they have no outcomes in common.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 10

 Venn Diagrams and Probability
The intersection of events A and B (A ∩ B) is the set of all outcomes
in both events A and B. This is sometimes called joint probability.

The union of events A and B (A ∪ B) is the set of all outcomes in either

event A or B.

Hint: To keep the symbols straight, remember ∪ for union and ∩ for intersection.
The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 11
Basic set theory with Venn diagrams
A ⊂ B means A is a subset of B. That is, every
element of A is also in B.
A ⊂ B: x ∈ A ⇒ x ∈ B

P(A) ≤ P(B)

P(A∩B)=P(A)
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Venn diagrams
Suppose 35% of the population reads USA Today,
20% read the NY Times and 5% read both.

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Intersection (A ∩ B)
Suppose that we draw one card from a deck. Let
A = draw a face card
B = draw a heart
What is the probability that the card drawn is a face card and
a heart?
A ∩ B = draw a face card and a heart (J❤ or Q❤ or K❤).
P(face card and heart) = P(A ∩ B) = 3/52 since three cards
are both face cards and hearts.
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Venn diagram
In a Venn diagram, the area inside the rectangle represents
the sample space and each circle represents an event.

To find probabilities, we
can count outcomes in
the appropriate region.

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Union (A U B)
The event A U B (“A or B”) consists of all
outcomes in event A, event B or both.
Example: Suppose we draw one card from a well-shuffled
deck. Let
A = draw a face card
B = draw a heart
Then, A U B = draw a face card or a heart.

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Mutually exclusive (disjoint) sets
If events A and B cannot happen together or
have no outcomes in common, we say that they
are mutually exclusive or disjoint and that
P(A ∩ B) = 0 and P(A|B) = 0.
Example 1: Tossing a single coin and getting heads and tails.

Example 2: A and Ac are disjoint. It is impossible for an

event and its complement to occur at the same time.
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Addition rule for disjoint sets
If events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint),
then P(A ∩ B) = 0 and the general addition rule
simplifies to P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B).

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 Example: Labeling a Venn Diagram Correctly
In December 2012, 60% of US households had a traditional landline
telephone, 89% of households had cell phones, and 51% had both.

P(Landline U Cell) = P(Landline) + P(Cell) – P(Landline ∩ Cell)

= 0.60 + 0.89 – 0.51 = 0.98
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 Venn Diagrams and Probability
Recall the example on gender and pierced ears. We can use a Venn diagram to
display the information and determine probabilities.

Define events A: is male and B: has pierced ears.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 20

 Two-Way Tables and Probability
When finding probabilities involving two events, a two-way table can display the
sample space in a way that makes probability calculations easier.

Consider the example on page 309. Suppose we choose a student at random. Find
the probability that the student
(a) has pierced ears.

(b) is a male with pierced ears.

(c) is a male or has pierced ears.

Define events A: is male and B: has pierced ears.

(a)
(c)
(b) Each
We want
student
to find
is equally
P(malelikely
or
andpierced
to be chosen.
piercedears),
ears),that
103is,is,
that students
P(A
P(Aorand
B).
haveThere
B).pierced
are at
Look 90
ears.
males So,
in the
P(pierced
class
the intersection of andears)
the “103=individuals
P(B)
Male” = 103/178.
row andwith pierced
“ Yes” column.ears. There
However, 19males
are 19 males
have pierced ears.
with pierced ears –So,
don’t
P(Acount them
and B) twice!
= 19/178.
P(A or B) = (19 + 71 + 84)/178. So, P(A or B) = 174/178
The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 21
Basic craps play (pass line bet)

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Basic craps play (pass line bet)
A player bets $1 and then rolls two six-sided dice. If the total on the up-faces is 7 or 11, the player
wins $1 and gets the original $1 back. If the sum is 2, 3, or 12, the player loses the $1 that was bet.
Any other total on the first roll becomes “THE POINT” and the game continues. The player keeps
rolling until the point comes up again (a win) or a sum of 7 is rolled (a loss).

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Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Prob 1/36 2/36

If you roll Probability Percent
Combinations that make each sum
Win with 7 on first 6 1 0.1667
roll 36 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
Win with 11 on first 2 1
roll 36 18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Win with 4 3 *3 = 1
36 9 36

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Win with 5 4 *4 = 2
36 10 45

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Win with 6

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Win with 8

Win with 9
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Win with 10
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Total probability of winning =
Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Prob 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36
If you roll Probability Percent
Combinations that make each sum
Win with 7 on first 6 1 0.1667
roll 36 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
Win with 11 on first 2 1 0.0556
roll 36 18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Win with 4 3 *3 = 1 0.0278

36 9 36

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Win with 5 4 *4 = 2 0.0444

36 10 45

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Win with 6 5*5=

36 11
25
396
0.0631

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Win with 8 5*5=

36 11
25
396
0.0631

Win with 9 4 *4 = 2 0.0444

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 36 10 45

Win with 10 3 *3 = 1 0.0278

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 36 9 36
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Total probability of winning = 0.4929
Basic craps play (pass line bet)

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Basic craps play (pass line bet)

So the player has a 49.29% chance of gaining $1 and a 50.71%

chance of losing $1. In the long run, the player would expect to
gain (0.4929)($1) + (0.5071)(–$1) = –$0.0142, that is, to lose just
over 1 cent for every dollar bet.

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