Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Module 2:
probability
Welcome to the world of possibilities
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Objectives
Here’s what you’ll learn in this module:

1. Understand and describe sample spaces and events for

random experiments
2. Explain the concept of probability and its application to
different situations
3. Define and illustrate the different probability rules
4. Solve for the probability of different statistical data
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

WHAT IS Probability ?
Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event occurring.
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

WHAT IS Probability ?
For example, the probability of flipping a coin and it being
heads is ½, because there is only 1 way of getting a head
and the total number of possible outcomes is 2 (a head or
tail).

01

04
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

WHAT IS Probability ?
The probability of something which is certain to happen
01 is 1.

The probability of something which is impossible to

02 happen is 0.

The probability of something not happening is 1 minus

03 the probability that it will happen.
 Terms to remember

Experiment event Simple event Compound event

Is used to describe any Consists of a set of possible
An event with one An event with more
process that generates outcomes of probability
a set of data experiment. Can be on outcome
or more than one outcome.
outcome than one outcome
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Sample space relationships among events

 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Difference between sample and events

Sample space is the set of all possible outcomes or
01 result of random experiment

Events are subset of a sample space. And

02 represented by letter E

Example:
Sample space when a dice is rolled is {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Event can be {1,3,5}
Sample space when a coin is tossed twice is ???
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Difference between sample and events

We can have more than one event in a sample
01 space. We can represent it as

The union of all events is equal to sample space.

02
A sample space with no elements is called null
03 space which is denoted by ∅.
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Operations with
events
 Intersection of
01 events
- It is the event containing all elements that are
common to events A and B.
- It is denoted by the symbol ∩
- A∩B
 Mutually exclusive
02 events
- Events that have no elements in
common.
- A∩B = ∅
03 Union of events
- Is the event containing all the elements
that belong to two or more events
- Denoted by the symbol ∪
 Complement of an
04 events
- Is the set of all elements of sample
space that are not in an event
Probability of an
event
 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Probability of an event
Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event occurring.

Where,

n(S) represents number of elements in a sample space of an experiment;

n(E) represents a number of elements in the event set;

P(E) represents the probability of an event.

 Engineering Data ANALYSIS

Probability of an event
Example:
In a die toss, what is the probability of getting odd numbers.
Solution:
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
E = {1,3,5}
Counting rules
useful in
probability
01 Multiplication rule
- Suppose you have j sets of elements, n1 in the
first set, n2 in the second set, and nj in the jth
set. Suppose you wish to form a sample of j
elements by taking one element form each of
the j sets. The number of possible sets is then
defined by:
02 Permutation rule
- The arrangement of elements in a distinct order is
called permutation.
- Given a single set of n distinctively different
elements, you wish to select k elements from the n
and arrange them within k positions. The number of
different permutations of the elements taken k at a
time is denoted :
03 Partitions rule
- Suppose you wish to partition a single set of n
distinctive elements into k sets, with the first set
containing n1 elements, the second containing n2
elements and so on.
The number of partitions is:
04 combinations rule
- If a sample of k elements is to be chosen
from a set of n elements, then the number
of different samples of k samples that can
be selected from n is equal to
Rules of probability:
Before discussing the rules of probability, we state the following definitions:
1. Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur at the same time

2. The probability that event A occurs, given that event B has occurred, is called a conditional
probability. The conditional probability of Event A, given Event B, is denoted by the symbol P(A|B).
3. The complement of an event is the event not occurring. The probability that event A will not occur is
denoted by P(A’).
4. The probability that events A and B both occur is the probability of the intersection of A and B. The
probability of the intersection of Events A and B is denoted by P(A∩B). If events A and B are mutually
exclusive, P(A∩B) = 0.
5. The probability that events A or B occur is the probability of the union of A and B. The probability of the
union of events A and B is denoted by P(A∪B).
6. If the occurrence of event A changes the probability of event A, then events A and B are dependent. On
the other hand, if the occurrence of event A does not change the probability of event B, then events A
and B are independent.
01 Rule of Addition
- If two events A and B are mutually exclusive,
then:
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)

- If events A and B are not mutually exclusive

events, then :
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)-P(A∩B)
 Rule of
02 multiplication
- When two events A and B are independent, then:
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B)

Dependent - when on outcome affects the other outcomes

Conditional probability - is the probability that event B occurs after event A has
already occurred. It is denoted by P(B|A).

- When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B|A)
where , P(B|A) = P(A∩B)/ P(A), provided that P(A)≠0
03 Rule of Subtraction
The probability that event A will occur is
equal to 1 minus the probability that event A
will occur.
P(A) = 1-P(A’)
End of Module 2
THank you
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