Migration as Adaptation Impact on Coastal Infrastructure Ethical implications, International Policy Aspects

Sea Level Rise

Sujatha Byravan (CDF, IFMR)and Sudhir Chella Rajan (IIT Madras)

The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.

Metres of sea-level rise are possible > 2 degrees C

WBGU 2006

Population Density within and outside the 10m Low Elevation Coastal Zone in Bangladesh (Source:sedac. ciesin.org). About 40% of the land area and 50% of the people are in the 10m LECZ Up to 80 million people in Bangladesh may be displaced by 2100 (5m)

Population Density within and outside the 10m Low Elevation Coastal Zone in India (Source: sedac.ciesi n.org). Up to 80 million may be displaced along the coast in India by 2100 (5m)

Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Statistics for 4 Countries in South Asia

Area of LECZ (square km) Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka 54,461 81,805 22,197 5,536

Population in LECZ

Urban Population in LECZ

Fraction of Urban Population in LECZ in Cities Exceeding 5 Million 33% 58% 92% 0%

65,524,048 63,188,208 4,157,045 2,231,097

15,428,668 31,515,286 2,227,118 961,977

(Source: sedac.ciesin.org).

(Source: http://www.teriin.org/coping/vulnerability.htm)

Climate change and globalization vulnerability profiles in India. Hatched areas are double exposed (Source: http://www.teriin.o rg/coping/vulnerab ility.htm).

Regions in India that will likely experience the highest levels of out-migration due to sea level rise and drought/globalization.

Climate Migrants: Internally displaced Climate Exiles: Stateless people; Forced migration out of their countries as nation states become unviable Climate exiles have no legal standing under the 1951 Refugee Convention, which is designed for political exiles and provides a right to nonrefoulement

Maldives, satellite image

Sea Level Rise: Impact on major infrastructure, ecosystems and land along the Tamil Nadu coast

S.No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Coastal district
Chennai Thiruvallur Villupuram Pudukottai Thanjavur Thiruvarur Tirunelveli

Coastal length (Km)

19.0 27.9 40.7 42.8 45.1 47.2 48.9

8
9 10 11 12 13

Cuddalore
Kanyakumari Kanchipuram Tuticorin Nagapattinam Ramanathapuram TOTAL

57.5
71.5 87.2 163.5 187.9 236.8 1076.0

Area at risk with 1m SLR

Replacement value of infrastructure, present value of ecosystem services for mangroves and market value for land in TN with a 1m SLR

1 crore= 10 million. Rs.1 crore ~ USD220,000

Recommendations
Policy Arena
Comprehensive vulnerability assessment of the entire coast should be conducted Zones of vulnerability need to be identified taking climate change into consideration Climate Change considerations should be integrated into all coastal infrastructure development

Wetlands need to be protected especially because they provide invaluable services and their destruction is often irreversible
Distributional impacts should be studied and adequate institutional mechanisms need to be put in place to protect the most vulnerable

Coastal protection measures should be carefully assessed and carried out if necessary
Develop early-warning systems to ensure that sea level rise impacts are anticipated well in advance of actual danger Develop measures to avoid situations of moral hazard, so that government is not bailing out new investors and speculators along the coast

Investors (including banks, financiers and others), Developers and Insurers

Identify zones of vulnerability and delineate areas of high financial risk Such information needs to be made available to all stakeholders and also be part of the decision-making process on location of infrastructure, the types of investment made, the design of the structures and their insurance. Insurers and financial institutions should be wary of speculative investment along the coast that are especially at risk from sea level rise and accompanying coastal changes

Probable Maximum Storm Surge Above Tide Level in Tamil Nadu Districts (analysis uses historical data)

Source: Probable maximum storm surge heights for the maritime districts of India; Report from Regional Meteorological Centre, Government of India

Future storm surge heights and corresponding areas at risk for the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu
District Thiruvallur Chennai Kanchipuram Villupuram Cuddalore Nagapattinam Thiruvarur Thanjavur Pudukottai Ramanathapuram Tuticorin Tirunelveli Kanyakumari S100 (m) 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 4.2 5.4 8.3 8.5 8.3 3.7 3 2.4 Future Storm Surge (m) 4.96 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 5.62 6.94 10.13 10.35 10.13 5.07 4.3 3.64 Area at risk Below 5m Below 5m Below 5m Below 5m Below 5m Below 10m Below 10m Below 10m Below 10m Below 10m Below 5m Below 5m Below 5m

Methodology and Data

Indicative rather than a comprehensive report Detailed geomorphological analysis and modelling of the coastline are needed to provide precise estimates District-level Probable Maximum Storm Surge heights obtained from a study by the Indian Meteorological Department and used to estimate land areas in each district at risk from future storm surges, flooding and erosion Future storm surge = PMSS + SLR + PMSS * x where:
PMSS = Probable maximum storm surge (based on historical data, which we took to be roughly equivalent to the current 1 in 100 year surge height) (m); SLR = 1m; and x = 0.1, or increase of 10%, in coastal areas prone to cyclones (Adapted from Dasgupta et al, 2009).