ValueeInvestor Crude Oil Analysis

www.valueeinvestor.com
Annual Average Domestic Crude Oil Prices*

Year
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Nominal
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

1.63
2.16
2.77
2.77
2.77
2.77
2.77
2.92
2.99
2.93
2.94
3.14
3.00
3.00
2.91
2.85
2.85
2.91
3.00
3.01
3.10
3.12
3.18
3.32
3.39
3.60
3.60
4.75
9.35
12.21
13.10
14.40
14.95
25.10
37.42
35.75
31.83
29.08
28.75
26.92
14.44
17.75
14.87
18.33
23.19
20.20
19.25
16.75
15.66
16.75
20.36
18.64
11.91
16.56
27.39
23.00
22.81
27.69
37.66
50.04
58.30
64.20
91.48
53.48
71.21
86.84

1946-Present
U.S. Average
(in $/bbl.)
Inflation Adjusted
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

18.49
21.73
25.92
26.17
25.90
24.00
23.47
24.50
25.04
24.57
24.35
25.12
23.38
23.15
22.15
21.44
21.19
21.39
21.75
21.47
21.48
21.04
20.53
20.36
19.65
20.00
21.44
23.87
42.48
51.00
51.78
53.41
51.58
77.05
102.26
88.55
74.24
65.69
62.26
56.28
29.62
35.13
28.32
33.24
39.80
33.36
30.85
26.09
23.76
24.73
29.32
26.12
16.44
22.30
35.76
29.23
28.50
33.86
44.81
57.57
65.03
69.51
95.25
55.96
73.44

Production and Consumption Data***

Worldwide

Crude Oil Production

Crude Oil Consumed

(thousands of barrels daily)

(thousands of barrels daily)

Inflation**
(annual)

8.43%
14.65%
7.74%
-0.95%
1.09%
7.88%
2.29%
0.82%
0.32%
-0.28%
1.52%
3.34%
2.73%
1.01%
1.46%
1.07%
1.20%
1.24%
1.28%
1.59%
3.01%
2.78%
4.27%
5.46%
5.84%
4.30%
3.27%
6.16%
11.03%
9.20%
5.75%
6.50%
7.62%
11.22%
13.58%
10.35%
6.16%
3.22%
4.30%
3.55%
1.91%
3.66%
4.08%
4.83%
5.39%
4.25%
3.03%
2.96%
2.61%
2.81%
2.93%
2.34%
1.55%
2.19%
3.38%
2.83%
1.59%
2.27%
2.68%
3.39%
3.24%
2.85%
3.85%
-0.34%
1.64%

* http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historical_oil_prices_table.asp
**http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historicalinflation.aspx
***BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

31806
34571
37121
40438
43635
48064
50846
53668
58465
58618
55826
60412
62714
63332
66050
62948
59535
57298
56599
57686
57472
60463
60784
63154
64042
65460
65268
65774
66028
67104
68141
69978
72238
73583
72397
74893
74906
74700
77075
80568
81485
81729
81544
82015
80278
82095

30783
33151
35548
38467
41876
45406
47940
51489
55638
54826
54357
57714
59896
62570
63701
61177
59309
57667
57445
58728
59090
60936
62168
63953
65292
66503
66656
67349
67125
68525
69861
71342
73477
74001
75726
76605
77304
78268
79823
82827
84126
84958
86428
85999
84714
87382

Difference
Consumption/ Production -1

-3.22%
-4.11%
-4.24%
-4.87%
-4.03%
-5.53%
-5.72%
-4.06%
-4.84%
-6.47%
-2.63%
-4.47%
-4.49%
-1.20%
-3.56%
-2.81%
-0.38%
0.64%
1.49%
1.81%
2.82%
0.78%
2.28%
1.27%
1.95%
1.59%
2.13%
2.39%
1.66%
2.12%
2.52%
1.95%
1.72%
0.57%
4.60%
2.29%
3.20%
4.78%
3.57%
2.80%
3.24%
3.95%
5.99%
4.86%
5.53%
6.44%