CBS News/New York Times Poll For release: February 14, 2012 6:30 PM ET

Some Good Economic News; the President and the November Election February 8-13, 2012 Some good news from the stock market and jobs front has the public feeling slightly more optimistic about the economic outlook 34% say it is improving, up from 28% last month. Still, three-fourths see the overall economy as bad. President Obama gets some credit his handling of the economy is up slightly, to 44% from 40% last month. His overall approval rating is 50% - the highest it has been since the killing of Osama bin Laden. The President now leads each of the Republican candidates in November election matchups. Independents support Barack Obama as well. The public sides with the Administration on federally-mandated contraception coverage for religiously-affiliated employers: 61% support the rule, 31% are opposed. Most Catholics also support the federal mandate at about the same rate as all Americans.

The Economy More Americans now say the economy is improving: 34% say so, up from 28% who thought so a month ago. And while more than four in ten see it stuck in place, the percentage that says it is improving is the highest it has been in nearly two years. Direction of the Economy 1/2012 12/2011 11/2011 28% 24% 18% 23 30 32 49 45 50

Getting better Getting worse The same

Now 34% 22 43

2/2011 32% 22 45

4/2010 41% 15 43

Three in four Americans say the economy is in bad shape, and just 23% say it is good but the percentage that says it is good has also been slowly climbing since late last fall, and is now at its highest level since last March. Condition of the Economy 1/2012 12/2011 11/2011 21% 19% 13% 79 81 86

Good Bad

Now 23% 75

10/2011 14% 86

3/2011 23% 77

A majority (59%) still thinks the country is on the wrong track. The percentage that says it is on the right track has risen to 35%, up from 29% a month ago and the highest in a year. Direction of the Country 1/9/12 12/2011 10/2011 29% 25% 21% 65 69 74

Right direction Wrong track

Now 35% 59

9/2011 19% 73

2/2011 36% 58

President Obamas Approval Ratings At 50%, President Obamas approval rating is now the highest it has been since the killing of Osama bin Laden last May. President Obamas Overall Job Rating 1/2012 12/2011 11/2011 47% 47% 43% 45 44 47

Approve Disapprove

Now 50% 43

5/2011 57% 37

1/2011 49% 39

More Americans still disapprove than approve of the Presidents handling of the economy, but he has improved some on this measure in the last few months. President Obama: Approval of Handling of Economy Now 1/2012 11/2011 6/2011 Approve 44% 40% 34% 37% Disapprove 50 54 60 56

1/2011 41% 52

Evaluations of the President on handling job creation and the deficit also remain net negative, but approval of his handling of job creation is now 41%, up from 35% in December. President Obama: Approval of Handling of Economic Issues Approve Disapprove Job creation 41% 52 Deficit 32% 59 42% of voters now think the President has made real progress fixing the economy, up from 33% earlier this year and 28% in December. Has President Obama Made Real Progress Fixing the Economy? (among registered voters) Now 1/2012 12/2011 Yes 42% 33% 28% No 54 62 67 Looking Ahead to the General Election The economy dominates as the issue voters most want to hear the presidential candidates discuss and many political observers say the economic situation will play a critical role in whether or not the President is re-elected. For the first time, Barack Obama now has a clear advantage against all four of the major Republican candidates. When voters are asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today, Obama enjoys a six point lead over Mitt Romney, an eight point lead

over Rick Santorum, an 11 point lead over Ron Paul, and an 18 point lead over Newt Gingrich. At the beginning of the year, Obama was about even with Ron Paul and trailed slightly behind Mitt Romney among registered voters. Who Would You Vote For in November if the Candidates Were? (Among registered voters) Now 1/18/2012 1/9/2012 Barack Obama 48% 45% 45% Mitt Romney 42 45 47 Barack Obama Rick Santorum Barack Obama Ron Paul Barack Obama Newt Gingrich 49% 41 50% 39 54% 36 49% 38 46% 42 50% 39 47% 43 46% 45 49% 41

Since the beginning of the year, Democrats have consistently backed Obama, and Republicans have consistently backed any of the possible Republican candidates. But self-identified independents have recently shown a shift towards Obama. A month ago, independents were more inclined to vote for Mitt Romney or Ron Paul than Barack Obama; now they favor Obama against all four of the major Republican challengers. Who Would You Vote For in November if the Candidates Were? (Among independent voters) Now 1/18/2012 1/9/2012 Barack Obama 46% 38% 39% Mitt Romney 37 46 45 Barack Obama Rick Santorum Barack Obama Ron Paul Barack Obama Newt Gingrich Candidate Qualities 54% of voters think Barack Obama understand the needs and problems of people like themselves and, 47% think the same of Ron Paul. Just one in three think Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney understands their needs. 37% think Rick Santorum does but 26% cant evaluate him on this measure. 46% 39 44% 40 51% 32 45% 36 39% 49 46% 38 44% 41 40% 47 45% 38

Understands the Needs and Problems of People Like You (Among registered voters) Yes No Dont know Barack Obama 54% 42 4 Ron Paul Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich 47% 37% 31% 30% 33 37 58 58 20 26 12 11

Americans have mixed views on which class President Obama favors 25% think he favors the rich, 19% think its the middle class, 20% think he favors the poor and 26% think he treats all groups equally. More than half of voters overall think Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney favor the rich. Think He Favors the (Among registered voters) Rich Middle class Poor All equally Barack Obama 25% 19 20 26 Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Ron Paul 54% 53% 31% 24% 9 11 11 14 1 1 2 2 21 22 29 38

Views of the Candidates: Obama vs. the Republican Field Overall opinion of the President has become more positive since January, and now for the first time in a year more registered voters have a favorable opinion of him than an unfavorable opinion. Opinion of Barack Obama (Among registered voters) Now 1/2012 9/2011 45% 38% 40% 41 45 45 13 17 14

Favorable Not favorable Undecided/Dont Know

1/2011 41% 36 21

The Republican candidates, on the other hand, are largely viewed negatively by or are unknown to most registered voters. More voters view Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul unfavorably than favorably. Voters who have an opinion of Rick Santorum are divided, though nearly half dont know enough to form an opinion, and 42% havent formed an opinion of Ron Paul. Views of Republican Presidential Candidates (Among registered voters) Favorable Not favorable Dont Know/Havent heard 27% 25 48 26% 40 33 24% 33 42 16% 54 29

Santorum Romney Paul Gingrich

Not surprisingly, Democrats view all four candidates negatively, while Republicans view them all positively, though they have the highest regard for Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney: 50% view them favorably. Independents continue to hold net negative opinions of both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and they are divided about Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, though many havent formed an opinion. The Contraception Issue The public is generally in favor of mandating birth control coverage for employees of religiouslyaffiliated employers. 61% favor the mandate, while 31% oppose it. Catholics whose Church strongly opposed the recent government mandate support the requirement at about the same rate as all Americans. Majorities of both men and women think employers should be required to cover contraception; women are especially in favor. Should Religious Employers Be Required to Cover Contraception? All Catholics Men Women 61% 61% 55% 66% 31 32 38 26

Yes No

Taxes, Mortgage Assistance The Presidents new budget proposal includes a tax increase on wealthier Americans. Twothirds of Americans believe there should be an increase for households with million-dollar incomes or more, up from 60% in December. Taxes on $1M Households Should be Now 12/2011 Increased 67% 60% Not increased 29 35 In the wake of a settlement in the mortgage fraud case, a majority of Americans, 55%, think the government should do more to help the housing market. Only 21% think it has done the right amount so far. The Direction of the Parties Voters tend to think both parties are more likely to be headed off on the wrong track than in the right direction, but they are more critical of the Republicans. While just 35% think the Democratic Party is headed in the right direction, this number drops even lower to 26% - for the Republican Party. Six in 10 think the Republican Party is off on the wrong track. The Direction of the Parties (Among registered voters) Republican Party Democratic Party 26% 35% 60 50

Right direction Wrong direction

73% of Democrats think their party is headed in the right direction, while 55% of Republicans think the same of the Republican Party. Independents think both parties are headed in the wrong direction, though more think this of the Republican Party (67%) than the Democratic Party (56%). Congress Meanwhile, Congress job approval remains low, at just 10% -- just one point above the historic low of 9% reached last fall.
________________________________________________________________________ This poll was conducted by telephone from February 8-13, 2012 among 1,197 adults nationwide. 997 interviews were conducted with registered voters. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Some Good Economic News; the President and the General Election February 8-13, 2012 q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 50 9 85 46 43 82 12 44 7 9 3 10

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Jan12b % 47 45 8

q2 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Jan12a 29 65 6

Right direction Wrong track DK/NA

35 59 6

9 87 4

63 32 5

29 64 7

q3 Which one issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2012 presidential campaign? Jun11a* 47 7 11 3 1 2 1 0 19 9

Economy and Jobs Health Care Budget Deficit /Natl Debt Education Taxes/IRS Immigration Politicians/Government Partisan Politics Other DK/NA
*Trend is among registered voters

44 8 4 3 3 2 2 2 21 11

48 8 5 2 3 3 2 0 19 10

42 8 3 5 4 3 1 3 19 12

44 8 5 2 3 1 2 1 24 10

q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy? Jan12b 48 35 17

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

50 36 14

19 66 15

75 11 14

49 37 14

q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 44 50 6 9 86 5 79 14 7 37 56 7 40 54 6

q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation with Afghanistan? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 51 24 73 50 36 61 15 38 13 15 12 12

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Sep11b % 47 36 17

q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling job creation? Dec11a 35 58 7

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

41 52 7

9 87 4

74 22 4

35 55 10

q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the federal budget deficit? Jun11a 30 63 7

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

32 59 9

4 93 3

64 24 12

24 65 11

q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Jan12b 13 79 8 Is it very

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

10 82 8

9 81 10

12 84 4

10 80 10

q10 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 1 22 46 29 2 1 11 46 41 1 1 34 47 18 0 2 19 45 32 2

1 20 47 32 0

q11 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same DK/NA 34 22 43 1 15 33 52 0 53 10 36 1 29 25 44 2 28 23 49 0

q12 Is the Republican Party headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Wrong DK/NA 26 60 14 55 31 14 10 79 11 17 67 16

q13 Is the Democratic Party headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 35 5 73 26 50 83 14 56 15 12 13 18

Right Wrong DK/NA q14-19 SEPARATE RELEASE

q20 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Newt Gingrich, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Newt Gingrich? Jan12b % 50 39 1 4 1 5

Obama Gingrich Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer

54 36 0 5 1 4

14 75 1 5 3 2

92 6 0 1 0 1

51 32 1 8 1 7

q21 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Ron Paul, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Ron Paul? Obama Paul Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer 50 39 0 4 1 6 12 76 1 6 0 5 89 6 0 1 1 3 44 40 0 5 3 8 46 42 1 5 2 4

q22 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer 48 42 0 4 1 5 6 86 0 3 0 5 87 8 1 1 0 3 46 37 1 6 3 7 45 45 1 4 2 3

q23 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rick Santorum, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Rick Santorum? Obama Santorum Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer 49 41 0 2 0 8 8 86 0 3 0 3 90 6 0 1 0 3 46 39 0 2 1 12 49 38 1 3 2 7

q24 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 45 6 82 42 41 79 6 41 11 12 9 12 2 1 2 4 1 2 1 1

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

Jan12b % 38 45 14 3 0

q25 Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Newt Gingrich yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 16 54 16 13 1 36 29 24 11 0 3 73 9 14 1 14 56 16 13 1 17 49 21 13 0

q26 Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Ron Paul yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 24 33 21 21 1 31 25 21 23 0 11 45 19 25 0 31 29 23 17 0 20 33 23 23 1

q27 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 26 40 20 13 1 50 14 23 13 0 8 60 14 16 2 23 42 24 10 1 21 35 29 15 0

q28 Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Rick Santorum yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q29-30 BLANK q31-40 SEPARATE RELEASE 27 25 15 33 0 50 6 17 27 0 8 41 11 39 1 25 25 18 32 0 16 23 18 42 1

10

q41 Do you think the Republican presidential candidates have been mostly talking about issues that matter to all Americans, or mostly talking about issues that mainly matter just to Republicans? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 33 61 14 28 58 29 78 62 9 10 8 10

Matter to all Americans Mainly to Republicans DK/NA q42 SEPARATE RELEASE

q43 Do you think Barack Obama does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Oct10a % 51 45 4

Yes No DK/NA

54 42 4

22 74 4

87 10 3

49 45 6

q44 Since he took office, has Barack Obama made real progress in fixing the economy or hasn't he made real progress in fixing the economy?

Made real progress Hasn't made real progress Don't know/No answer

42 54 4

6 90 4

74 20 6

42 55 3

Jan12b 33 62 5

q45 In general, do you think the policies of the Obama Administration favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or do they treat all groups equally?

Favor Favor Favor Treat DK/NA

the the the all

rich middle class poor equally

25 19 20 26 10

32 8 36 14 10

12 31 6 46 5

30 18 21 18 13

Oct11a1 26 23 19 22 10

q46 Do you think Barack Obama's views on most issues are too liberal for you, not liberal enough, or just about right? Too liberal Not liberal enough About right DK/NA q47 BLANK 37 12 43 8 73 8 12 7 6 12 74 8 36 16 40 8

11

q48 Do you think Newt Gingrich does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 30 61 9 26 58 28 80 63 12 11 11 11

Yes No DK/NA q49 SEPARATE RELEASE

q50 In general, do you think the policies proposed by Newt Gingrich favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or do they treat all groups equally? Favor Favor Favor Treat DK/NA the the the all rich middle class poor equally 54 9 1 21 15 33 18 1 39 9 75 3 0 7 15 53 8 2 21 16

q51 SEPARATE RELEASE q52 PLACEHOLDER q53 Do you think Ron Paul does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q54 SEPARATE RELEASE q55 In general, do you think the policies proposed by Ron Paul favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or do they treat all groups equally? Favor Favor Favor Treat DK/NA the the the all rich middle class poor equally 24 14 2 38 22 11 16 3 49 21 39 13 1 23 24 19 14 2 42 23 47 33 20 58 25 17 32 46 22 52 27 21

q56 SEPARATE RELEASE q57 BLANK q58 Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q59 SEPARATE RELEASE 31 58 11 56 36 8 15 74 11 27 61 12

12

q60 In general, do you think the policies proposed by Mitt Romney favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or do they treat all groups equally? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 53 29 74 53 11 21 4 10 1 1 1 0 22 37 8 22 13 12 13 15

Favor Favor Favor Treat DK/NA

the the the all

rich middle class poor equally

q61 SEPARATE RELEASE q62 BLANK q63 Do you think Rich Santorum does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q64 SEPARATE RELEASE q65 In general, do you think the policies proposed by Rick Santorum favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or do they treat all groups equally? Favor Favor Favor Treat DK/NA the the the all rich middle class poor equally 31 11 2 29 27 13 15 4 50 18 46 7 1 17 29 30 13 0 24 33 37 37 26 64 16 20 18 55 27 32 38 30

q67-68 SEPARATE RELEASE q69 In general, do you think the government should be doing more to help the housing market improve, should it be doing less, or is the government doing the right amount? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 55 50 62 53 17 34 4 18 21 13 28 20 7 3 6 9

More Less Right amount DK/NA

Jun11c % 45 16 30 9

q70 Which comes closest to your view - 1. Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, 2. Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or 3. There should be no legal recognition of a gay couples relationship? Sep11a 38 27 28 7

Allowed to legally marry Civil union No legal recognition DK/NA

40 23 31 6

17 33 47 3

52 18 25 5

45 21 26 8

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q71 As you may know, the largest items in the federal budget are Medicare, the government health insurance programs for seniors, Social Security, and the military. If you had to choose one, which of the following programs would you be willing to change in order to cut spending - Medicare, Social Security, or the military? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 15 21 12 14 13 18 9 13 52 38 61 53 2 3 2 3 10 12 9 10 2 1 2 2 6 7 5 5

Medicare Social Security Military All (Vol.) None (Vol.) Combination (Vol.) DK/NA

Dec11b % 23 22 27 3 16 4 5

q72 In order to lower the nation's budget deficit, do you think taxes should be increased on households earning one million dollars a year or more, or should the government address the budget deficit without increasing taxes on those households? Should be increased Should not be increased DK/NA 67 29 4 51 44 5 84 13 3 64 31 5 60 35 5

q73 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all? Jan12b 36 28 35 1

Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned DK/NA

38 27 35 0

30 24 45 1

40 28 32 0

42 28 30 0

q74 Do you support or oppose a recent federal requirement that private health insurance plans cover the full cost of birth control for their female patients? Support Oppose Don't know/No answer 66 26 8 50 44 6 81 13 6 64 26 10

q75 And what about for religiously affiliated employers, such as a hospital or university - do you support or oppose a recent federal requirement that their health insurance plans cover the full cost of birth control for their female employees? Support Oppose DK/NA 61 31 8 41 53 6 78 14 8 59 31 10

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q76 Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship, or 2. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as guest workers, but not to apply for U.S. citizenship, or 3. They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S. ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 42 31 51 43 22 22 21 24 30 42 23 28 6 5 5 5

Allowed to stay and apply Stay only as guest workers Required to leave jobs and DK/NA

Dec11b % 44 26 26 4

q77 Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? Yes No DK/NA 20 68 12 41 47 12 5 85 10 19 68 13 23 70 7

Total Respondents Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Registered Voters Reg. Voters Republicans Reg. Voters Democrats Reg. Voters Independents

UNWEIGHTED 1197 332 413 452 1064 316 368 380

WEIGHTED

322 (27%) 406 (34%) 469 (39%) 997 295 (30%) 335 (34%) 368 (36%)

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