Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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A – UNIQUENESS
MULTIPLE MARKET PRESSURES WILL DRIVE DOWN NATURAL GAS PRICES IN THE
MEDIUM AND LONG TERM
FOSTER NATURAL GAS REPORT 5-16-2008
U.S. natural gas prices could fall "substantially" over the next three to four years, according to Strategic
Energy & Economic Research Inc. (SEER). Henry Hub prices could decline by as much as $2/MMBtu by
2012, said SEER's CEO Ron Denhardt in a presentation today. Quoting the famous New York Yankees
Yogi Berra - "the future isn't what it use to be" - Denhardt warned that several economic conditions would
drive down U.S. natural gas prices, including a weak dollar, a strong demand response, and higher-
than-expected growth in natural gas production, among other things.
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Carbon cap and trade dramatically spikes natural gas prices and causes severe electricity shortages
National Association of Manufacturers 2005, http://www.nam.org/s_nam/doc1.asp?
CID=141&DID=226226
Those who advocate a “cap and trade” scheme for reducing carbon dioxide emissions argue that the
flexibility and “market-based” mechanisms will lower overall costs of the program. They compare their
legislation to the successful sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions reduction program authorized by the 1990
Clean Air Act Amendments. However, that program was successful (and credits remained available at low
prices) because there were affordable options to reach compliance—fuel switching to lower sulfur coal or
installation of SO2 scrubbers. No such alternatives exist for carbon—utilities would have to compete for
limited supplies of natural gas with homeowners, agriculture and industry; and there are no “scrubbers” that
can be put on plants to remove CO2.
Nevertheless, with a “cap and trade” program that rations coal use, utilities will have to make large scale
changes in the energy they use. Historically, the only viable option to meet carbon dioxide reduction targets
on a large scale would be to switch to natural gas. But that option is disappearing with the recognition that
natural gas supplies are already failing to keep up with ever-increasing demand, as was very evident by the
high spot prices (reaching $19.00/mcf) this past winter. Unless nuclear power plants can be built quickly
and often to replace coal to generate electricity, a “cap and trade” program could lead to severe electricity
shortages—irrespective of price—and reduce fuel diversity and economic security, leading to ever greater
manufacturing job losses to overseas nations that do not have carbon caps. Unlike the SO2 program, there
is no inexpensive substitute fuel or technology to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. A “cap and trade”
scheme for CO2 would raise energy prices and create shortages of natural gas and electricity. Capping”
carbon dioxide means creating a limit on how much carbon intensive fuel—most notably coal—can be used
in the U.S. economy. Legislating less energy available to generate electricity necessarily leads to higher
electricity prices, if not actual shortages, because there is no other energy source that is sufficiently
abundant and cost-effective to replace coal. A CO2 cap and trade program would act as a tax on the
economy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in their 2001 report, “An Evaluation of Cap and Trade
Programs for Reducing U.S. Carbon Emissions,” the CBO stated “the economic impacts of cap-and-trade
programs would be similar to those of a carbon tax: both would raise the cost of using carbon-based fuels,
lead to higher energy prices and impose costs on users and some suppliers of energy.” By raising the prices
of electricity and natural gas, a cap and trade program will be highly regressive, hurting the poor, the
elderly, minorities and anyone on a fixed income, disproportionately. It will also reduce general prosperity
and productivity. The CBO stated in the same report, “The higher prices for energy and energy-intensive
products that would result from a cap-and-trade program would reduce the real income that people received
from working and investing, thus tending to discourage them from productive activity. That would
compound the fact that existing taxes on capital and labor already discourage economic activity.” As the
NAM observed in our January 7, 2003, letter to members of the Senate Commerce Committee, “While
some companies would profit from a government program that would allow them to sell emissions
reductions to others, the overwhelming majority of U.S. companies will experience this as a tax on growth
that will hurt their international competitiveness and thus, their workers and stockholders.”
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1 – Natural gas is key to the chemical industry and the production of a laundry list of valuable inputs
into the economy and energy
Gupta 2003 – Chairman and CEO, Rohm and Haas (Global Chemical Manufacturer)
Testimony before House Committee on House Resources, 3-19, FDCH
The current price of natural gas is the chemical industry's number one economic issue. Natural gas is the
lifeblood of the chemistry business in the U.S. Not only do we use natural gas as a fuel in our
manufacturing processes, much like other industries, but we also use it as an ingredient, or feedstock, for
many of the products we make.
Natural gas and natural gas liquids contain hydrocarbon molecules that are split apart during processing and
then recombined into useful chemical products. These products include life-saving medicines, health
improvement products, technology-enhanced agricultural products, more protective packaging materials,
synthetic fibers and permanent press-clothing, longer-lasting paints, stronger adhesives, faster
microprocessors, more durable and safer tires, lightweight automobile parts, and stronger composite
materials for aircraft and spacecraft. The business of chemistry also makes many of the products that help
save energy throughout the entire economy, including insulation, house wraps, lubricants, and high-
strength light-weight materials, enabling American industries and consumers to be more energy efficient.
The business of chemistry is the only part of the economy that adds value to these hydrocarbon molecules
rather than combusting them for energy.
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________________
***UNIQUENESS
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U – LONG TERM
NATURAL GAS MARKETS STABLE IN THE LONG TERM – NEW SUPPLY WILL ALLOW
THE INDUSTRY TO WEATHER CURRENT PRICE PRESSURES
CANADA NEWSWIRE 5-21-2008
Despite recent upward pressure on natural gas prices, additional supplies, particularly from unconventional
sources, expanding LNG import capabilities and increasing investment in natural gas storage will
keep the market in balance over the longer term, concludes a new paper released today by the Canadian
Gas Association.
North America continues to have an ample supply of natural gas with expected declines in some
conventional sources of supply being offset by stronger than expected performance by other
unconventional supplies, says the CGA paper entitled Natural Gas Markets - Price and Supply Update.
"Current prices are also drawing investment into exploration and development and increasing the supply of
natural gas in North America," says Canadian Gas Association President, Michael Cleland.
"Unconventional supplies such as shale gas, coal bed methane and gas from waste are becoming
increasingly economic in the present environment."
"Today's natural gas prices are being influenced by increasingly tight global markets for all energy
commodities" said Cleland. "No energy source, whether renewable or non-renewable will escape this
reality."
However, with multiple energy options and a strong responsive natural gas marketplace, North America is
well positioned to weather these storms. Natural gas will continue to play a key role in meeting the energy
needs of consumers.
The Canadian Gas Association (CGA) is the voice of Canada's natural gas delivery industry. CGA
members are gas distribution companies, transmission companies, related equipment manufacturers, and
other service providers involved in the delivery of natural gas in Canada.
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U – LONG TERM
All their evidence is systemically biased – most qualified studies and market fundamentals prove
prices will lower and stabilize
Inside FERC 2-21-2005
Seeking to debunk widely held views on the gas supply/demand picture, a new report asserts that futures
prices are not sustainable at current levels and "will moderate significantly" within the next year. "The
contemporary domestic political scene has rendered continued high prices for natural gas a convenient
problem for both political parties," wrote James Choukas-Bradley, an attorney with the Washington law
firm Miller, Balis & O'Neil, and Michael Donnelly, a consultant with Global Energy Advisors.
"Therefore, there is wide political satisfaction, though largely unstated and politically unspeakable, for
continued high gas prices," said the pair, who co-authored the report on gas market dynamics for 2005 and
beyond. "There is no consensus among industry experts that domestic supplies are dwindling," said the
report, issued last week. "Projections indicate annual rates for total domestic production that range from
minus 2% to plus 2%, [while] the federal government continues to project 1% to 2% annual growth to
2020." Moreover, bullish news for gas markets tends to get wider media coverage than bearish news,
according to the authors. "The trade press reports and responds to the pronouncements and projections of
stock analysts who cover the industry," and such analysts "implicitly consider the interest of their industry
to reside in higher prices." At the same time, the mainstream media cover stories about higher prices since
they tend to mean "bad news for consumers, and therefore sometimes worth reporting," the authors said.
"Neither the producer-oriented media nor the consumer-oriented media are served institutionally by bearish
natural gas price news." For their part, market players themselves no longer appear to concentrate on
fundamentals, the report said.
"We have been and remain in the midst of a climate of crisis concerning natural gas prices, with market
prices subject to wild swings resulting from trading decisions by both commercial and speculative traders
that respond to 'psychology' and 'spin,' either in spite of or in the absence of reliable, real-time fundamental
information," the authors said. While domestic producers have incentives to hedge their physical gas price
exposure, "producers generally do not hedge a large portion of their production on a long-term basis,
seeking rather to capture the upside of higher future prices." Meanwhile, "speculative traders dealing with
financial gas price exposure have the incentive to support price volatility and volume liquidity," according
to the study.
But fundamentally, the full-cycle replacement cost of gas in the U.S. and Canada "remains significantly
below market prices," running at about $2.75 to $3.00/MMBtu for most offshore Gulf of Mexico supplies
and at $3.25 to $3.50/MMBtu for deep-water Gulf supplies. "The full-cycle replacement cost for other
domestic sources is lower, in some cases considerably lower," the authors said. Increasing imports of
liquefied natural gas also will put heavy downward pressure on gas prices, the authors predicted. "If two
new LNG import terminals are built every three years, and North American gas demand reaches 30 Tcf by
2025, LNG should compete with indigenous gas, potentially displacing as much as 40% of Gulf Coast
production by 2010, with an expected reduction in gas prices," according to the study. "Even in the absence
of other factors, such gas-on-gas competition by itself should result in Henry Hub prices at $4.25/MMBtu
or lower, in 2004 dollars, before 2010."
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U – NEW SUPPLY
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U – NEW SUPPLY
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U – NEW SUPPLY
MORE EV – HYDRATES
CGA 2008 – CANADIAN GAS ASSOCIATION
NATURAL GAS MARKETS PRICE AND SUPPLY UPDATE, 5-21, http://www.cga.ca/
Gas from Hydrates:
Recent tests have successfully extracted gas from
hydrates at rates equal to that for coal bed methane.
Commercial development of hydrates-based natural gas
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TURN – Gas price spikes don’t kill the industry but sustained market imbalances will devastate
productivity and job growth
Gupta 2003 – Chairman and CEO, Rohm and Haas (Global Chemical Manufacturer)
Testimony before House Committee on House Resources, 3-19, FDCH
High natural gas prices also negatively impact productivity and employment in our industry. In any
industry, a company faced with declining profitability must evaluate whether or not to continue operations.
During the 2000-2001 "spike" in natural gas prices, many companies idled their operations. About fifty
percent of the industry's methanol capacity and fifteen percent of the industry's ethylene capacity were
simply shut down during this time. Many workers were sent home. As natural gas prices came down plants
reopened. These relatively short-term increases in natural gas prices led to relatively short-term shutdowns.
However, there are serious questions regarding how these companies will respond over the long-term if
faced with a business environment with sustained conditions of tightened natural gas supply and high
natural gas prices. For our employees, demand destruction sooner or later becomes job destruction.
TURN - The plan creates a permanent crunch in the natural gas market – sustained high prices will
eliminate the ability to cope with price volatility
Gupta 2003 – Chairman and CEO, Rohm and Haas (Global Chemical Manufacturer)
Testimony before House Committee on House Resources, 3-19, FDCH
A disturbing reality of the U.S. natural gas market is that nearly 70% of it is price insensitive. This means
that 70% of gas consumers have no option to either stop using energy or to use a different form of energy
and must pay whatever the price is for the gas they need. The remaining 30% of demand, predominantly
industrial manufacturers, can adjust to gas price swings by switching to more reasonably priced fuels or by
ceasing to operate their manufacturing facilities. It is in this 30% that demand destruction occurs. In the
past, this demand destruction generally has been temporary. Higher prices led to increased production and
lesser demand, thereby increasing supply and moderating prices. Once prices returned to more economic
levels, industrial consumers switched back to natural gas or restarted idled facilities. In light of recent
trends -- record numbers of working drill rigs in 2001 did not increase supply; more stringent air quality
regulations that limit or eliminate the ability to fuel switch; ever increasing demand for natural gas from
price insensitive users -- there is a significant risk that this historical pattern will not repeat itself. Rather,
ACC is concerned that temporary demand destruction may become permanent demand destruction for
many of its members.
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Natural gas market has stabilized, only government regulations on demand can create market
inbalances
Gas Daily 10-9-2003
Despite persistent warnings of a U.S. gas shortage, supply and demand in fact have reached an appropriate
balance now that the ''gas bubble'' of the 1980s and 1990s has burst, an executive of an inde-pendent
producer said this week.
''As a country, we've been somewhat spoiled over the last 20 years because we've had an overabundance of
natural gas deliverability, brought about by policy changes in the late '70s,'' said Bruce Vincent, executive
vice president of Houston-based Swift Energy. ''Our view is that the fundamentals of natural gas supply and
demand, and the uses for natural gas, are pretty much in balance.''
As a result, average prices will stay in the $ 4 to $ 5/MMBtu range for the foreseeable future, Vincent said
this week during the Independent Petroleum Association of America's 2003 Oil & Gas Investment
Symposium in San Francisco.
In an interview with Gas Daily, Vincent cited the Natural Gas Policy Act and the Powerplant and Industrial
Fuel Use Act, which in the 1970s pushed electric utilities and some industrial customers to use fuel oil
instead of natural gas. That, he said, led to the oversupply that came to be known as the gas bubble.
''For many years, we were always used to that surplus. Of course, that discouraged significant new
exploration, but eventually that worked itself off -- a lot of it through increasing demand, some of it
through decreasing supplies. So we find ourselves to where they really are in balance,'' he said.
Given that fundamental shift, the market has created both a floor and a ceiling for the value of gas. ''As the
price gets too high, we're going to drive some of the demand away from the market. And if the price gets
too low, the demand will come back and it will discourage the drilling activity and the supply will come
down,'' Vincent said.
''The key determinants of that overbalance/underbalance will be weather and the economy. Those are the
two big fundamentals that drive demand,'' he added. ''Both of those, particularly weather, are
unpredictable.''
Recent price spikes don’t point to a crisis in natural gas because higher prices have been offset by
lower capital costs
Energy Information Administration 2004 – Annual Energy Outlook
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity.html
In AEO2005, the projected average price for natural gas delivered to electricity generators is 45 cents per
million Btu higher in 2025 than was projected in AEO2004; however, the impact of the higher prices is
offset by the assumption that capital costs for new natural-gas-fired power plants will be lower than
assumed in AEO2004, as well as the inclusion of more recently completed and announced plans for gas-
fired power plants. As a result, in AEO2005, projected cumulative capacity additions and generation from
natural-gas-fired power plants are higher than in AEO2004, and capacity additions and generation from
coal-fired power plants are lower. The AEO2005 projectione of 1,406 billion kilowatthours of electricity
generation from natural gas in 2025 is 8 percent higher than in AEO2004 (1,304 billion kilowatthours) and
more than twice the 2003 level of about 630 billion kilowatthours (Figure 5). Less new gas-fired capacity is
added in the later years of the forecast because of the projected rise in natural gas prices.
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***LINKS
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Links – Permits
EIA analysis proves the plan causes sustained high prices to do its constraint on the market
Energy Information Administration 2003 – Analysis of S.139, the Climate Stewardship Act
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ml/pdf/summary.pdf
Delivered prices of coal, natural gas, petroleum, and electricity all increase in the S.139 case relative to the
reference case (Figure S.3) as a consequence of the emissions allowance program. Figure S.4 shows the
percentage change in delivered prices from the reference case to the S.139 case. In percentage terms, coal
prices are most affected by S.139: the price in the S.139 case is 474 percent above the reference case price
in 2025. Natural gas prices in the S.139 case are 46 percent above the reference case prices in 2025,
average petroleum product prices are 29 percent higher, and prices for petroleum-based transportation fuels
are 31 percent higher. These price changes reflect supply and demand shifts as well as allowance costs. For
example, the reduced U.S. demand for oil in the S.139 case is expected to reduce the world oil price by 7
percent and help mitigate the price impact on final consumers. The increased U.S. demand for natural gas
works in the opposite direction, increasing the market-clearing price of gas at the wellhead. Electricity
prices, reflecting the higher cost of using fossil fuels for generation and the incremental cost of plant
investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., by replacing coal-fired plants that do not sequester
carbon dioxide), are 46 percent above the reference case level in 2025.
1990 cap mandates forever increasing natural gas prices and fundamentally alters the market
Montgomery 1997 – President, Charles River Associates
FDCH, 10-9
In percentage terms, an emission trading program or a carbon tax sufficient to return emissions to 1990
levels in 2010 would produce a 23% increase in the cost of electricity, a 45% increase in the cost of heating
oil, a 40% increase in the cost of gasoline, and a 46% increase in the cost of natural gas in 2010 to
households.
As the U.S. economy grows and it becomes more difficult to hold emissions at this fixed level, increasingly
expensive efforts will be required to hold to the cap. Therefore, the carbon tax or permit price would rise to
about $400 per tonne by 2030. The taxes on individual fuels would also increase in proportion to the
growing carbon tax.
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Links – Permits
Tradeable permits increase natural gas costs by 147%
National Center for Policy Analysis 1999
http://www.ncpa.org/hotlines/global/pd113099d.html
To comply with the Kyoto Accord, the Clinton administration has proposed a tradable CO2 emission permit
plan. Supporters argue that an emissions trading scheme would be a less expensive way of reducing
emissions than the other primary option, a carbon tax on all fuels, because it allows emissions reductions to
be concentrated at sources where it is least expensive. However, economist Margo Thorning points out that
"Carbon taxes could be imposed instead of tradable permits: there should be, in principle, no difference in
energy prices under the two alternative systems."
Under either system, energy prices will rise. For instance: The Department of Energy estimates that carbon
permit prices would be equal to a carbon tax of $348.00 per ton in 2010. WEFA, Inc., an econometrics
forecasting firm, estimates that the cost of carbon permits would top $265.00 per ton. The DOE estimates
that these permit prices would increase the cost electricity by up to 86.4 percent, gasoline by 52.8 percent,
home heating oil by 76 percent and natural gas by 147 percent.
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Companies won’t respond to regulation with innovation, lack of certainty and experience proves
Stavins 2000 – Prof Government @ Harvard
Economic Analysis of Global Climate Change Policy: A Primer, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?
abstract_id=240389
Since the compliance costs associated with most climate policies are initially incurred by private firms, it is
important to analyze correctly the behavioral response of such firms to various policy regimes. Most
economic analyses treat firms as atomistic profit-maximizing or cost-minimizing units. This is satisfactory
for many purposes, but it can lead to distorted estimates of the costs brought about by some policies. For
example, one potentially important cause of the mixed performance of implemented market-based
instruments is that many firms are simply not well equipped internally to make the decisions necessary to
fully utilize these instruments. Since market-based instruments have been used on a limited basis only, and
firms are not certain that these instruments will be a lasting component on the regulatory landscape, most
companies have not reorganized their internal structure to fully exploit the cost savings these instruments
offer. Rather, most firms continue to have organizations that are experienced in minimizing the costs of
complying with command-and-control regulations, not in making the strategic decisions allowed by
market-based instruments (Hockenstein, Stavins, and Whitehead 1997).
The focus of environmental, health, and safety departments in private firms has been primarily on problem
avoidance and risk management, rather than on the creation of opportunities made possible by market-
based instruments. This focus has developed because of the strict rules companies have faced under
command-and-control regulation, in response to which companies have built skills and developed processes
that comply with regulations, but do not help them benefit competitively from environmental decisions
(Reinhardt 2000). Absent significant changes in structure and personnel, the full potential of market-based
instruments will not be realized. Economic models may thereby underestimate the relative costs of
employing such instruments to achieve global climate targets.
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______________________________________________
***HIGH PRICES IMPACTS THAT TURN THE CASE
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_______________________
***ECONOMY IMPACTS
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High natural gas prices will cause recession more likely now than oil
Gupta 2003 – Chairman and CEO, Rohm and Haas (Global Chemical Manufacturer)
Testimony before House Committee on House Resources, 3-19, FDCH
For the U.S. chemical industry, economic survival depends on having access to an abundant and affordable
supply of natural gas. Every recession since World War II has been proceeded by a steep increase in
energy prices. In the past it's been the cost of oil. This time, it may by natural gas, the "other" fuel and the
hidden energy crisis.
Recessions due to high gas prices continue even after gas prices stabilize
Livingston 2004 – Editor, Labor Standard
http://www.laborstandard.org/Environment/Greenspan.htm, 6-23
Price spikes in oil prices pushed the U.S. and the world into recessions in 1974 (the Arab oil embargo),
1979 (the Iranian Revolution), and 1991 (the Persian Gulf War). These price spikes have a so-called
asymmetrical effect—the recessions continue after the prices return to their previous lower levels.
Greenspan knows that a price spike in natural gas would push the U.S. into a serious recession. Combined
with price increases in oil, such a spike in natural gas prices would be deadly.
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Global war
Mead 2004 (Foreign Policy, March/April)
Similarly, in the last 60 years, as foreigners have acquired a greater value in the United States-government
and private bonds, direct and portfolio private investments-more and more of them have acquired an
interest in maintaining the strength of the U.S.-led system. A collapse of the U.S. economy and the ruin of
the dollar would do more than dent the prosperity of the United States. Without their best customer,
countries including China and Japan would fall into depressions. The financial strength of every
country would be severely shaken should the United States collapse. Under those circumstances, debt
becomes a strength, not a weakness, and other countries fear to break with the United States because they
need its market and own its securities. Of course, pressed too far, a large national debt can turn from a
source of strength to a crippling liability, and the United States must continue to justify other countries'
faith by maintaining its long-term record of meeting its financial obligations. But, like Samson in the
temple of the Philistines, a collapsing U.S. economy would inflict enormous, unacceptable damage on
the rest of the world. That is sticky power with a vengeance.THE SUM OF all POWERS?The United
States' global economic might is therefore not simply, to use Nye's formulations, hard power that compels
others or soft power that attracts the rest of the world. Certainly, the U.S. economic system provides the
United States with the prosperity needed to underwrite its security strategy, but it also encourages other
countries to accept U.S. leadership. U.S. economic might is sticky power. How will sticky power help the
United States address today's challenges? One pressing need is to ensure that Iraq's econome reconstruction
integrates the nation more firmly in the global economy. Countries with open economies develop powerful
trade-oriented businesses; the leaders of these businesses can promote economic policies that respect
property rights, democracy, and the rule of law. Such leaders also lobby governments to avoid the isolation
that characterized Iraq and Libya under economic sanctions. And looking beyond Iraq, the allure of access
to Western capital and global markets is one of the few forces protecting the rule of law from even further
erosion in Russia.China's rise to global prominence will offer a key test case for sticky power. As China
develops economically, it should gain wealth that could support a military rivaling that of the United States;
China is also gaining political influence in the world. Some analysts in both China and the United States
believe that the laws of history mean that Chinese power will someday clash with the reigning U.S.
power.Sticky power offers a way out. China benefits from participating in the U.S. economic system and
integrating itself into the global economy. Between 1970 and 2003, China's gross domestic product grew
from an estimated $106 billion to more than $1.3 trillion. By 2003, an estimated $450 billion of foreign
money had flowed into the Chinese economy. Moreover, China is becoming increasingly dependent on
both imports and exports to keep its economy (and its military machine) going. Hostilities between the
United States and China would cripple China's industry, and cut off supplies of oil and other key
commodities Sticky power works both ways, though. If China cannot afford war with the United States, the
United States will have an increasingly hard time breaking off commercial relations with China. In an era
of weapons of mass destruction, this mutual dependence is probably good for both sides. Sticky power did
not prevent World War I, but economic interdependence runs deeper now; as a result, the "inevitable" U.S.-
Chinese conflict is less likely to occur.Sticky power, then, is important to U.S. hegemony for two reasons:
It helps prevent war, and, if war comes, it helps the United States win.
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Nuclear war
Chris H. Lewis in his book "The Coming Age of Scarcity" p. 56 1998
Most critics would argue, probably correctly, that instead of allowing underdeveloped countries to
withdraw from the global economy and undermine the economies of the developed world, the United
States, Europe, and Japan and others will fight neocolonial wars to force these countries to remain within
this collapsing global economy. These neocolonial wars will result in mass death, suffering, and even
regional nuclear wars. If first world countries choose military confrontation and political repression to
maintain the global economy, then we may see mass death and genocide on a global scale that will make
the deaths of World War II pale in comparison. However, these neocolonial wars, fought to maintain the
developed nations' economic and political hegemony, will cause the final collapse of our global industrial
civilization. These wars will so damage the complex economic and trading networks and squander
material, biological and energy resources that they will undermine the global economy and its ability to
support the earth's 6 to 8 billion people. This would be the worst case scenario for the collapse of global
civilization
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***CHEMICAL INDUSTRY IMPACTS – EXTERNAL
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. As we increase our output of goods and services, as we increase our consumption of energy, as we
centuries
meet the imperative of raising the standard of living for the poorest among us, we must learn to carry out
our economic activities sustainably. There are optimists out there, C&EN readers among them, who believe that the history of civilization is a long string
of technological triumphs of humans over the limits of nature. In this view, the idea of a "carrying capacity" for Earth—a limit to the number of humans Earth's resources can
support—is a fiction because technological advances will continuously obviate previously perceived limits. This view has historical merit. Dire predictions made in the 1960s
about the exhaustion of resources ranging from petroleum to chromium to fresh water by the end of the 1980s or 1990s have proven utterly wrong.
While I do not count myself as one of the technological pessimists who see technology as a mixed blessing at best and an unmitigated evil at worst, I do not count myself among
the technological optimists either. There are environmental challenges of transcendent complexity that I fear may overcome us and our Earth before technological progress can
come to our rescue. Global climate change, the accelerating destruction of terrestrial and oceanic habitats, the catastrophic loss of species across the plant and animal kingdoms—
these are problems that are not obviously amenable to straightforward technological solutions. But I know this, too: Science and technology have brought us to where we are, and
only science and technology, coupled with innovative social and economic thinking, can take us to where we need to be in the coming millennium. Chemists, chemistry, and the
chemical industry—what we at C&EN call the chemical enterprise—will play central roles in addressing
these challenges. The first section of this Special Report is a series called "Millennial Musings" in which a wide variety of representatives from the chemical enterprise
share their thoughts about the future of our science and industry. The five essays that follow explore the contributions the chemical enterprise is making right now to ensure that we
will successfully meet the challenges of the 21st century. The essays do not attempt to predict the future. Taken as a whole, they do not pretend to be a comprehensive examination
of the efforts of our science and our industry to tackle the challenges I've outlined above. Rather, they paint, in broad brush strokes, a portrait of scientists, engineers, and business
managers struggling to make a vital contribution to humanity's future. The first essay, by Senior Editor Marc S. Reisch, is a case study of the chemical industry's ongoing
transformation to sustainable production. Although it is not well known to the general public, the chemical industry is at the forefront of corporate efforts to reduce waste from
production streams to zero. Industry giants DuPont and Dow Chemical are taking major strides worldwide to manufacture chemicals while minimizing the environmental
"footprint" of their facilities. This is an ethic that starts at the top of corporate structure. Indeed, Reisch quotes Dow President and Chief Executive Officer William S.
Stavropolous: "We must integrate elements that historically have been seen as at odds with one another: the triple bottom line of sustainability—economic and social and
environmental needs." DuPont Chairman and CEO Charles (Chad) O. Holliday envisions a future in which "biological processes use renewable resources as feedstocks, use solar
energy to drive growth, absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, use low-temperature and low-pressure processes, and produce waste that is less toxic." But sustainability is
more than just a philosophy at these two chemical companies. Reisch describes ongoing Dow and DuPont initiatives that are making sustainability a reality at Dow facilities in
Michigan and Germany and at DuPont's massive plant site near Richmond, Va. Another manifestation of the chemical industry's evolution is its embrace of life sciences. Genetic
engineering is a revolutionary technology. In the 1970s, research advances fundamentally shifted our perception of DNA. While it had always been clear that deoxyribonucleic
acid was a chemical, it was not a chemical that could be manipulated like other chemicals—clipped precisely, altered, stitched back together again into a functioning molecule.
Recombinant DNA techniques began the transformation of DNA into just such a chemical, and the reverberations of that change are likely to be felt well into the next century.
Genetic engineering has entered the fabric of modern science and technology. It is one of the basic
tools chemists and biologists use to understand life at the molecular level. It provides new avenues to
pharmaceuticals and new approaches to treat disease. It expands enormously agronomists' ability to
introduce traits into crops, a capability seized on by numerous chemical companies. There is no doubt
that this powerful new tool will play a major role in feeding the world's population in the coming century, but its
adoption has hit some bumps in the road. In the second essay, Editor-at-Large Michael Heylin examines how the promise of agricultural biotechnology has gotten tangled up in
real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food. The third essay, by Senior Editor Mairin B. Brennan, looks at chemists embarking on what is perhaps the
greatest intellectual quest in the history of science—humans' attempt to understand the detailed chemistry of the human brain, and with it, human consciousness. While this quest
is, at one level, basic research at its most pure, it also has enormous practical significance. Brennan focuses on one such practical aspect: the effort to understand neurodegenerative
diseases like Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease that predominantly plague older humans and are likely to become increasingly difficult public health problems among an
aging population. Science and technology are always two-edged swords. They bestow the power to create and the power to destroy. In addition to its enormous potential for health
and agriculture, genetic engineering conceivably could be used to create horrific biological warfare agents. In the fourth essay of this Millennium Special Report, Senior
Correspondent Lois R. Ember examines the challenge of developing methods to counter the threat of such biological weapons. "Science and technology will eventually produce
sensors able to detect the presence or release of biological agents, or devices that aid in forecasting, remediating, and ameliorating bioattacks," Ember writes. Finally, Contributing
Editor Wil Lepkowski discusses the most mundane, the most marvelous, and the most essential molecule on Earth, H2O. Providing clean water to Earth's population is already
difficult—and tragically, not always accomplished. Lepkowski looks in depth at the situation in Bangladesh—where a well-meaning UN program to deliver clean water from wells
has poisoned millions with arsenic. Chemists are working to develop better ways to detect arsenic in drinking water at meaningful concentrations and ways to remove it that will
work in a poor, developing country. And he explores the evolving water management philosophy, and the science that underpins it, that will be needed to provide adequate water
for all its vital uses. In the past two centuries, our science has transformed the world. Chemistry is a wondrous tool that has allowed us to understand the structure of matter and
gives us the ability to manipulate that structure to suit our own purposes. It allows us to dissect the molecules of life to see what makes them, and us, tick. It is providing a glimpse
we
into workings of what may be the most complex structure in the universe, the human brain, and with it hints about what constitutes consciousness. In the coming decades,
will use chemistry to delve ever deeper into these mysteries and provide for humanity's basic and not-so-
basic needs.
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Chemistry’s reliance on natural gas for power and products means that inflated prices have a
uniquely devastating impact
Gupta 2003 – Chairman and CEO, Rohm and Haas (Global Chemical Manufacturer)
Testimony before House Committee on House Resources, 3-19, FDCH
Because of our industry's duel use of natural gas, as well as our significant presence in the U.S., the
business of chemistry today accounts for eleven percent of domestic natural gas consumption, second only
to electric utilities. As a result, changes in the natural gas market, such as constricted supply and inflated
prices, have a particularly severe impact. In order for the domestic business of chemistry to remain
competitive in the global marketplace and to be able to continue to provide employment and other benefits
here at home, it is essential that measures be taken to increase natural gas supplies and to make these
supplies available at reasonable prices.
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***MANUFACTURING SHIFT IMPACTS – EXTERNAL
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3 – Nuclear war
Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 1995
Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a
global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term
guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which
the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment
would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of
law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major
problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level
conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the
United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including
a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a
bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.
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High natural gas prices cause manufacturing to shift overseas, devastating the US economy
IECA 2003 – Industrial Energy Consumers of America
12-3, http://www.ieca-us.com/downloads/natgas/$111bilion.doc
The impact of high energy costs on manufacturing is significant and it contributed greatly to reduce
manufacturing after-tax profits during the 41 month natural gas crisis. According to Bureau of Census
data, manufacturing profits fell 47.7 % during the time period of the natural gas crisis versus the previous
41 months. Manufacturing plays an important role in the economic health of our country and we must
recognize that affordable energy, including natural gas, is essential. In the past, the affordability of U.S.
energy was a key factor in manufacturing building their factories here. Now, the non-globally competitive
price of natural gas and natural gas feedstock is forcing manufacturing companies to produce their products
elsewhere. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, manufacturing accounts for 22 % of
GDP growth, contributes one-third of the economy’s productivity growth, creates more business activity
and jobs in other sectors than any other industry, performs 62 % of U.S. private sector R&D, pays the
highest wages –18 % higher than the national average and makes two-thirds of all U.S. exports.
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High natural gas prices cause wholesale shift of US manufacturing base overseas
Sun.com 2004 – March, http://www.sun.com/br/0304_ezine/man_gas.html
U.S. firms cannot survive when costs triple. Companies using gas for feedstock, such as nitrogen fertilizer
producers, have been among the first to feel financial pain. High gas prices, which account for up to 90
percent of fertilizer costs, have forced nine nitrogen fertilizer plants to close or cease operations since
January 2001. The remaining facilities have only operated at 50 percent capacity. Where are farmers
getting their fertilizers? According to the U.S. Government Accounting Office, the 25 percent decline in
U.S. fertilizer sales has been accompanied by a 43 percent increase in imports and a 7 percent decrease in
agricultural consumption.
Job losses follow plant closures. Russell Gold, staff reporter for The Wall Street Journal, recently wrote,
"U.S. chemical makers have lost an estimated 78,000 jobs since natural gas prices began to rise in 2000."
Theo H. Walthie, business group president, Hydrocarbons and Energy and EO-EG at The Dow Chemical
Company, recently confirmed this pessimistic statistic when he spoke at the February 2004 CERAWEEK
conference. According to Walthie, sustained high natural gas prices forced Dow to shutter U.S. plants, and
focus investments overseas, accounting for some of the 3,500 jobs Dow lost globally in 2003. Walthie said
more U.S. manufacturing jobs are at risk unless U.S. natural gas prices become globally competitive in the
near-term. Where are the jobs and investments going? Companies like Dow Chemical are relying more on
their joint-venture facilities in Malaysia and Kuwait, where natural gas prices are lower than in the United
States. New plant additions by Asian-owned companies are also on the drawing board in Taiwan and
China, positioning these companies to supply growing regional markets that turn basic chemicals into
plastic parts. Higher Gas Costs Means Higher Beef Prices—and More Natural gas use is widespread. This
raw material accounts for 38 percent of industrial energy use, 15 percent of commercial building use, and
16 percent of electric generation use. Increases in gas prices ripple throughout the economy. For example,
as average gas prices rose by 303 percent at the end of 2000, fertilizer prices increased by 144 percent.
Without offsetting cost savings from other farming expenses, farmers would have curtailed production to
boost corn prices to recoup expenses. Higher corn prices lead to higher prices for corn syrup and grain feed,
ultimately forcing up prices for hundreds of consumer products such as soft drinks, breakfast cereals,
burgers, and ethanol used in gasoline. Rising gas prices also increase electricity costs, hurting profit
margins of every U.S. business. Because of environmental restrictions, natural gas—a clean-burning fuel—
powers 90 percent of all recently built electric generation plants. In New England, where gas fuels 40
percent of electricity plants, average power prices hit 30 cents per kilowatt hour in mid-January 2004—a
600-percent increase over normal prices. Why the price shock? An eighth of the region's power generators
shut down because they lacked gas or they sold their gas to residential heating markets instead of producing
electricity. The past decade's construction of gas-fired power plants is the major factor increasing gas
demand. Most states regulate retail electricity prices—passing increased wholesale power costs through to
retail customers. Manufacturers, however, face global competitors, and cannot pass energy cost increases
through to consumers. The result is that power generators can outspend manufacturers for natural gas—
forcing manufacturers to go offshore to find cheap gas supplies.
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***MANUFACTURING SHIFT IMPACTS – TURNS THE
CASE
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***NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF ANSWERS
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***NONUNIQUENESS
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AFF – NU – SHORT TERM SUMMER PRICES WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO TIGHT
PRODUCTION SCHEDULES
FOSTER NATURAL GAS REPORT 5-16-2008
Nonetheless, for this summer, the U.S. natural gas market "looks tight," with working gas storage levels
expected to be 142 Bcf lower by October, when compared to last year. Although U.S. natural gas
production is expected to be up 1.5 Bcf/d (2.8%), Canadian production and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
imports will be down 0.5Bcf/d and 1.5 Bcf/d, respectively. Lower gas demand in the electric power sector
due to improved hydroelectricity and nuclear generation could trigger a drop of 0.1 Bcf/d in gas deliveries
to the sector this year. A greater decrease will come from the U.S. industrial sector - with a 0.4 Bcf/d
decrease (or a 2.1% decrease).
Demand for natural gas will outpace production for many reasons absent the plan
North American Natural Gas Vision 2005, January,
http://www.pi.energy.gov/pdf/library/NAEWGGasVision2005.pdf, North American Energy Working
Group Experts Group on Natural Gas Trade and Interconnections
Continued North American cooperation in natural gas production, storage, and delivery will be even more
important over the next decade. For all three countries, the demand for natural gas is expected to increase,
at a faster rate than production growth. The increased demand for natural gas will be driven by many
factors, including population growth, industry consumption, and the environmental benefits of natural gas
(compared to other fuels). This increased demand is expected to be between 15 and 25 percent for Canada
and the U.S. and over 90 percent for Mexico during the ten year
period (2002 to 2012).
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New sources of supply will fail to stop rapidly rising prices in the status quo
Domenici 2005 – Senator, New Mexico
The Hill, 2-17
The United States faces a natural-gas crisis that will have a crippling effect on our economy by 2020 if we
don't act now.
Many thought we fixed the problem by approving construction of the Alaska natural-gas pipeline, but that
pipeline will provide only enough gas to take the edge off our expanding energy appetite. But by 2025, the
pipeline's estimated 2.2 trillion cubic feet (tcf) will equal only 7 percent of what the United States is
expected to consume annually.
Today, we consume 22 tcf of gas each year. By 2025, consumption will reach 31 tcf -- an increase of more
than 40 percent. But by 2025, the United States will only be producing 21.8 tcf -- just 70 percent of
expected demand.
What's driving that demand? Nearly half of the new electricity generation expected to come on line in the
next 20 years will require natural gas, according to a new study by the American Gas Foundation. That's
because natural gas is clean and was, until recently, abundant and affordable. Even with today's tight
supplies and rising prices, it's easier to site and build a gas-fired plant than a plant fired by coal or nuclear
power, the two other abundant sources of electricity.
We have thought we could make up the shortfall between production and consumption by importing liquid
natural gas (LNG). But energy companies are having trouble getting the ports built that are needed for
importing LNG. Companies have filed plans for some 40 LNG ship terminals on the East and West coasts,
but local resistance to proposed terminals has stalled permitting and prevented construction. In recent
months, LNG developers have run into local opposition in Eureka, Calif.; Harpswell, Minn.; La Joya, Baja
California, Mexico; Mobile, Ala.; Vallejo, Calif., Searsport, Minn.; and Fall River, Mass.
Given such resistance, it is unlikely that the United States will be able to build enough terminals in the next
20 years to facilitate the import of 30 percent of its gas even if we thought such reliance on foreign fuel was
a good idea.
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____________________________
***LINK DEFENSE AND TURNS
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CO2 caps reduce natural gas demand – EPA and DOE studies prove carbon cap key to create
incentives for efficiency and renewables
Hawkins 2001 – Director, NRDC Climate Center
FDCH, 11-15, Testimony Senate Environment and Public Works
The other feature of the climate problem is that energy systems cannot turn on a dime. While some may use
this fact to argue against S.556, the opposite is true. To establish the market signals needed to promote
cleaner and smarter energy technologies we need to adopt policies now to limit CO2 emissions. As long
CO2 can be dumped for free, the market will discourage the investments needed to modernize our energy
technologies. Let me give an example of how the status quo distorts decisions away from climate friendly
actions. In the US today, there is much talk about the need for energy security. While energy efficiency will
give us the largest, most secure additional domestic supply, investments in efficiency continue to be
undervalued, in large part because there is no value assigned to the pollution that efficiency prevents,
particularly carbon emissions. As I discuss below, investments in energy efficiency make it possible to
implement S.556 while saving consumers money. But it is unlikely the market will spur adequate efficiency
programs as long as carbon emissions are ignored in calculating the value of efficiency improvements.
Adopting the CO2 caps in S.556 would change the incentives and promote investments in efficiency,
renewable energy and CO2 capture and avoidance measures. But the Administration says it would cost
consumers too much, with Mr. Holmstead's testimony claiming that the bill would cause a 30-50 percent
increase in electricity prices. This Committee heard similar claims in the 1980's when industry and the
Reagan Administration claimed that enacting acid rain controls would raise electric rates by 30 percent or
more. Of course, nothing like that happened, nor will it under S.556. Two assumptions affect forecasted
costs of S.556 more than any others: what is the predicted growth in electricity and natural gas demand,
and will Congress adopt revenue recycling provisions to prevent windfall profits to electric generating
companies? One can calculate high costs for controlling carbon emissions only if one assumes little is done
to improve energy efficiency and use of renewable energy and if one assumes that Congress will let electric
generators retain $50-100 billion in windfall profits. Mr. Holmstead's testimony makes both these
assumptions in predicting large price rises for electricity. However, according to the full EPA study of
S.556, U.S. gross domestic product would actually be higher under S.556 than under business-as-usual as a
result of the stimulus-producing programs for energy efficiency and renewable energy promoted by the bill.
As for natural gas dependence, the S.556 program of efficiency and renewable energy would actually
reduce natural gas use for electricity generation compared to the Administration's energy plan. With the
S.556 emission controls and advanced energy efficiency and renewable energy programs implemented,
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The warrant for fuel switching proves that the plan key to create incentives for natural gas efficiency
Sander et al 1999 – CEO Environmental Financial Prospects, PhD
Natural Gas, June 6, http://www.envifi.com/Bios/natgas.htm
As the market for greenhouse gas emissions continues to evolve, switching to less carbon-intensive fuels
will be an important means to reduce carbon emissions. Natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel.
Per unit of energy, combustion of natural gas results in 42 percent less carbon dioxide emissions than coal
and 29 percent less than residual fuel oil. Significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions could be made
through fuel switching, for example, from residual fuel oil to natural gas. The value of carbon emission
reductions resulting from a trading and regulatory regime will also favor cofiring of natural gas with coal
and might lead to an early retirement of coal-fired boilers or a repowering to use natural gas. When the
value of carbon reductions is added to the value of SO2 and NOx reductions that also result from a switch
to natural gas, the financial premium associated with the environmental benefits of the switch will be even
greater. The market in carbon reductions will motivate technological improvements to reduce emissions.
For example, if price signals provide incentives for increased use of natural gas, the market would respond
with new technologies. Price incentives will encourage technologies that produce, distribute, and
combust natural gas more efficiently and effectively.
Cap doesn’t increase natural gas usage due to efficiency and renewables
Hawkins 2001 – Director, NRDC Climate Center
FDCH, 11-15, Testimony Senate Environment and Public Works
The Role of Natural Gas The Administration also claims that S.556 will endanger energy security by
requiring too much natural gas for electric generation. But large increases in natural gas use do not occur
if the integrated CEF efficiency and renewable policies called for in S.556 are implemented. Under either
the moderate or advanced CEF policy programs, EPA's study confirms that natural gas use in electric
generators will be less than under BAU growth with no emission controls.[5] There is no reason to oppose
limits on carbon pollution in order to avoid excessive dependence on natural gas or any other single fuel
for electricity generation. Smart policies that harness the largely untapped potential of efficiency and
renewable energy do a better job of promoting fuel diversity and attack the problem of global warming at
the same time.
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Industry data and comprehensive study proves that revenue recycling from auctioned permits offset
the effects on business from short-term run ups in energy prices
Redefining Progress 2001, Accurate Price Issue Brief, November, “The Price Scare Will be a False
Alarm,” www.rprogress.org/newpubs/2001/etrsummary.pdf
Using data from the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Manufacturing Productivity database, Gale
and Hassett empirically analyze the effect of an energy price increase on U.S. business investment in
equipment and structures. They find that carefully designed revenue recycling policies are likely to more
than offset a short-run decrease in investment following increases in energy prices. Because increased
capital accumulation is associated with increased productivity and total output, they conclude that a tax
shift could exert a positive influence on the macroeconomy and wages.
Auctioning permits allows revenue recycling which solves the short term impacts of higher prices on
energy intensive industries and causes incentives for clean energy which lowers prices in the long
term
Redefining Progress 1999, Backgrounder No. 1, September, “Fair and Low-Cost Climate Protection”
www.rprogress.org/newpubs/1999/dga_backgrounder1.pdf
Instead, it would be more direct and simple to chare polluters for their carbon emissions, then return the
revenue to citizens and businesses through tax cuts or rebates. For example, one proposal for early action
would stabilize greenhouse gas emissions in 2002 at 1990 levels, which could yield over $33 billion
annually from pollution charges. The revenue would then cut existing payroll taxes, giving workers an
extra $285 per year: increase funding for health care or education; reduce the deficit; or just give every
citizen $120 rebate every year, thus offsetting most, if not all, of a household’s energy price increase.
Extremely pessimistic economic studies, which many believe contain highly unrealistic assumptions,
estimated that emissions permit prices would be very high, raising about $300 billion each year by 2010
(WEFA 1998). If returned as a lump-sum rebate, each citizen would receive slightly more than $1,000 per
year. Fortunately, the higher the estimated cost to the economy, the more revenue would be raised to offset
higher energy prices. In the long term, the economy will widely adopt clean-energy technologies, thus
driving energy prices back down; revenues will decrease, as will the need for revenues to offset price
increases.
In addition to returning the revenue to the economy, some revenue should also be used to compensate
displaced workers and firms in energy-intensive industries, such as coal mining, and protect low-income
consumers who may be temporarily harmed by price increases resulting from greenhouse gas reductions.
The revenue could easily take care of the most vulnerable industries, workers, and consumers, while
leaving plenty to distribute more widely through rebates or tax reductions.
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Turn – the plan increases income and asset values for the natural gas industry and permit market
solves the impact to price volatility
Sander et al 1999 – CEO Environmental Financial Prospects, PhD
Natural Gas, June 6, http://www.envifi.com/Bios/natgas.htm
Carbon trading is not only feasible, it is emerging even in the absence of government regulation. New
investments are being made in technologies and research needed to monitor and standardize carbon
measurement. Active trading of carbon could prove an inexpensive insurance policy against the unknown,
but potentially catastrophic, problems that may emerge because of the rapid increase in global carbon
emissions. An effective and efficient market-based solution will become even more important as
governments around the world tighten restrictions on carbon emissions. The U.S. natural gas industry is
well-positioned to help in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. While helping to clean up the air, the benefits
to the industry could be substantial. Income and asset values should both increase. All the while, carbon
trading could also make the natural gas industry more resilient to other forces that have persistently
created business cycles in the energy sector.
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***IMPACT ANSWERS
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Warming outweighs natural gas – delaying carbon caps ensures devastating warming and causes
worse costs later on
Hawkins 2001 – Director, NRDC Climate Center
FDCH, 11-15, Testimony Senate Environment and Public Works
Assistant Administrator Holmstead set forth the Administration's reasons for its opposition to any
requirement to control CO2 from power plants. The Administration claims that CO2 controls will cost
consumers too much and make generation too dependent on natural gas. The Administration also asserts
that decisions to control CO2 should be made as part of broad climate change policy.
Contrary to the Administration's claims, S.556 will save consumers money, will reduce growth in
consumption of natural gas and will lay the groundwork for broader efforts to combat climate change.
The Costs of Delay
The Administration states that it takes the issue of climate change very seriously. But its opposition to
controlling power plant CO2 is a serious mistake. This past weekend, the world's other industrialized
countries agreed to take steps to significantly limit global warming pollution over the coming decade. In
response, the President's spokesman is quoted as saying the President "agrees with the need to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. His Cabinet review is under way, to determine a way that can be done without
forcing America into a deep recession."
The fact is that the October 31 analysis of S.556 submitted by Mr. Holmstead for the Administration
demonstrates that controlling CO2 from power plants will help the economy, not harm it. That analysis
concludes that US gross domestic product would be higher under S.556, not lower.
To take climate change seriously, one must look at the costs of delay in taking action. The assumption of
many is that by delaying action to limit global warming pollution we will reduce costs. That assumption is
wrong and ignores the nature of the global warming problem. Today's atmospheric concentrations of CO2
are 30 percent above pre-industrial levels, higher than they have been in over 400,000 years. They have
reached that level in a geological blink of an eye due to our burning of fossil fuels. By burning these fuels
we are returning to the atmosphere heat- trapping gases that were isolated over a period of about 75 million
years. The speed at which we are reversing the earth's geologic history is astounding: each year we put
back into the atmosphere an amount of CO2 that took 100,000 years to store in fossil fuels. CO2 stays in
the atmosphere hundreds of years once it is released, so each year we allow CO2 emissions to grow, we are
committing many generations to the consequences of the resulting change in climate.
The only way to limit the extent of the climate change we inflict on future generations and ourselves is to
limit, or stabilize, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and to do that we must act to reduce emissions. The
longer we wait to start, the more expensive we make it to achieve any particular stabilization target. To
stabilize CO2 levels in the atmosphere, we must limit the total cumulative tons of CO2 we release. For
example, to limit the atmospheric buildup of CO2 to a level about 60 percent higher than pre-industrial
levels (today it's 30 percent higher), cumulative global manmade carbon emissions up to the year 2100
must be kept below 950 billion metric tons. We have already released about one-third of this budget. But
the real problem lies immediately ahead: at current emission rates we will consume half of the remaining
budget in less than 30 years.
Imagine you are on a supertanker so close to a reef that you will cover half the remaining distance in the
next 20 minutes. There is time to avoid the reef only if the tanker alters course immediately. Our economy
can grow without increasing carbon emissions but only if Congress acts now to signal the market that these
emissions can no longer be dumped for free. Unless we act now to lower the business as usual growth in
CO2 emissions, we will eliminate our ability to stabilize concentrations at more protective levels or force
later action that is wrenching and expensive, requiring extremely rapid reductions in these gases.
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70
CNDI 2008 CAMP STARTER SET
NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF / NEG
71
CNDI 2008 CAMP STARTER SET
NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF / NEG
72
CNDI 2008 CAMP STARTER SET
NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF / NEG
73