Analysis of Economic Growth A l i fE i G th Pattern of Rangpur District gp Based on Shift-Share Analysis Shift-

Submitted By Md. Tanvir Hossain Sh bh Md T i H i Shubho Undergraduate Student Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

Introduction
This study is intended to have a glance on the effects of different industrial sectors on the economic growth of Rangpur. Rangpur The Shift-Share analysis has been done based on the contribution to the national Gross District Product at current market price by different industrial sectors of Rangpur district.

Objectives of the Study j y

To analyze the effect of industrial structure on the economic growth of Rangpur district over the period from 1995-96 to 1999-00. To identify the fast and slow growing industries in Rangpur district. To exemplify the reasons behind this pattern of growth with respect to the profile of Rangpur district as well as the relationship between GDP and employment of different sectors in Rangpur Rangpur.

Map of Rangpur District

Profile of Rangpur District

Type of Household
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Year 1991 99.19 99.32 Year 2001

Percentage of household h

0.23 Dwelling

0.30

0.59 Other

0.37

Institutional

Household Type

Structure Type in 2001

7.42% 2.51% 9.67%

Jhupri Kutcha Semi-pucca Pucca

80.40%

Profile of Rangpur District

Ownership Pattern of Dwelling Household
percentage of househ hold
100 Year 1991 80 60 40 20 2.69 0 Owened Rented Rent free 3.10 8.48 5.40 88.83 91.50 Year 2001

Ownership Type

Electricity Connection
P Percentage of household h
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 87.83 81.23

12.17

18.77

Year 1991 Year 2001

With electricity

Without electricity

Electricity Connectivity

Percen ntage of house ehold

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Agriculture/lIv vestock/ forestry y Fishing /pisci iculture Agricultural labour l Non-agricultural labour l W Weaving Year 1991 Industry/wo orkshop Business B Year 2001 H Hawker Transort T

Profile of Rangpur District gp

Main Source of Income

Main Source of Income

Const truction

Religious service

oyment Emlo

Rental

Rem mittance

others

Percent tage of GDP

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 -20 10 -10

Agriculture and Forestry Fishing Mining an Quarrying nd M Manufacture Electric Gas and Water Supply city, W C Construction W Wholesale and Retail Trade nd Hotel an Restaurant Transport, St torage and Com mmunication Financial In ntermediation Real Es state, Renting and Business a Activities s Public Administration and Defense A Education Health and Social Works S C Community, So ocial and Perso Services onal Different sectors in Rangpur district

ShiftShift-Share Analysis for Rangpur District

% of Differential Shift % of National Share

% of f Proportionality Shift

Potential and weak sectors of Rangpur district

Potential sector
Agriculture and Forestry Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacture Electricity, Gas and Water Supply y, pp y Wholesale and Retail Trade Hotel and Restaurant Transport, Storage and T S d Communication Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities Education Community, Social and Personal Services

Weak sector
Construction Financial Intermediation Public Administration and Defense Health and Social Works

Potential Sectors
Agricultural and Forestry: Proportionality Shift: -6.30% ; Differential Shift: 0.98% National growth rate for this sector over 1995 96 to 1999 00 are 36 62% 1995-96 1999-00 36.62% and the districts growth rate is 37.61%. Rangpur is enriched in good forest and agricultural resources Fishing sector: Proportionality Shift: 16.63%; Differential Shift: 2.52% There are about 23,200 ponds in the district of them 18,450 are being used for fish farming Besides, there are about 225 beels, 23 rivers , 19 water bodies and about 22 thousand hectares of low lands in the district where fish is being cultivated extensively Mining and Quarrying: Proportionality Shift: -14.18%; Differential Shift: 71.25% Khalspir coal field accelerates the growth in coal mining and quarrying

Potential Sectors
Education sector: Proportionality Shift: 19.70% ; Differential Shift: 14.44% Increase in number of schools contributes to number of employment opportunity and enhance the GDP contribution It is basic economic sector whose high LQ value supports the positive value of differential component with 2,209 educational i i l f diff i l i h 2 209 d i l institutes Real-estate, Renting and Business Activity: Proportionality Shift: -3.63%; Differential Shift: 3.15% Percentage of people having to pay for their residence is increasing with the increased density. y Even district growth rate is much higher than the national for this sector Manufacture Sector: Proportionality Shift: -1.44%; Differential Shift: 1.36% Manufacture of several products such as manufacture of tobacco, food products and beverage, basic metal etc. enjoy the locational advantages beverage etc

Potential Sectors
Wholesale and Retail Sector: Proportionality Shift: -1.29% ; Differential Shift: 6.30% District growth rate for this sector is much higher than the national growth rate Wholesale as the forward linkage for the manufacturing sector and reversely the manufacturing acting as a backward linkage Transport, Storage and Communication: Proportionality Shift: -6.96%; Differential Shift: 4.15% Shyampur i a very well k Sh is ll known place i Rangpur district under the l in R di t i t d th Badargonj police station where there are few cold storages Among other occupations the transport is a major job sector providing employment of 5.93% people

Weak Sectors
Construction Sector: Proportionality Shift: 17.28% ; Differential Shift: -0.01% 0.01% Regional growth was increased over the year 1995-96 to 1999-00 But, there was an identical district GDP growth rate over the nationwide growth rate Only 0.80% people were involved in construction sector in 1991, which was increased to 1.12% in 2001 Antagonistic climatic condition hi d A i i li i di i hinders i growth its h Financial Intermediation: Proportionality Shift: 2.32%; Differential Shift: -7.76% There was a decrease in the percentage of GDP contribution in the region over the year 1995-96 to 1999-00;though there was a nationally small y g y increase in GDP contribution in that period for this sector This sector is constrained by two critical barriers: institutional rigidities and lack of understanding among formal financial sector institutions

Weak Sectors
Public Administration and Defense Sector: Proportionality Shift: 12.28%; Differential Shift: -0.15% A slow district growth rate of this sector than national respect g p The percentage of GDP increased regionally over 1995-96 to 1999-00 very insignificantly Health and Social Works: Proportionality Shift: 4.86%; Differential Shift: -0.% It also holds a slow district growth rate than the national The district is hindered because of lack of social safety-net in the context of climate change and lack of budget allocation for health sector

Major Findings
Sectors Agriculture and Forestry Major Findings Potential sector, percentage contribution of this sector in GDP is decreasing both nationally and in Rangpur district but it is still d b h ll d R d b ll major source of GDP in Rangpur. Potential sector, GDP contribution has been doubled from 199596 to 1999-00. 999 00. Potential sector, manufacturing of food and beverage, basic metal are basic sectors. Strength of Agricultural and Forestry in Rangpur is supporting the manufacturing sector. Weak sector, percentage increase from 1995-96 to 199-00 is very low in this sector. Potential sector, but no major change in the percentage of contribution in GDP has been found over the 5 year period. Weak sector, percentage of GDP contribution in this sector has been decreased in Rangpur region over the year 1995-96 to 199900 Potential sector, residents with rent free facility has decreased. Potential sector, GDP contribution from this sector has increased. Has higher district growth rate than the national growth rate. Weak sector, contributes a better percentage of GDP over 199596 to 1999-00

Mining and Quarrying Manufacture

Construction Hotel and Restaurant Financial Intermediation

Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities Education Health and Social Works

Recommendation
Although, Rangpur district has locational advantage for Agriculture and Forestry sector, contribution from this sector has decreased. So people engaged in agricultural works need to be encouraged by providing them fertilizer and seeds in low price. Manufacturing is also a strong sector but all the manufacturing sectors g g g are not strong. Sectors like manufacturing of textiles, furniture, wood products, fabricated metals, rubber and plastic products are lagging behind. behind So these sectors need special care. care

Thank You

Proporti onality Shift

Percent

Name of Different Sectors

Agriculture and Forestry Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacture Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Wholesale and Retail Trade Hotel and Restaurant Transport, Storage and Communication Financial Intermediation Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities Public Administration and Defense Education Health and Social Works Community, Social and Personal Services Total

36.63% 59.56% 28.75% 41.48% 29.15% 60.21% 41.64% 49.52% 35.96% 45.25% 39.30% 55.21% 62.63% 47.78% 42.32% 42.93%

37.61% 62.08% 100.00% 42.84% 43.50% 60.20% 47.94% 49.70% 40.11% 37.49% 42.45% 55.06% 77.07% 47.20% 42.34% 44.47%

3331.94 165.27 28.33 650.33 161.83 1079.60 1043.97 72.55 1091.61 458.02 1326.85 152.82 290.18 314.65 1249.15 11417.10

-489.28 489.28 64.03

-6.30% 6.30% 16.63%

76.34 9.70 47.03 20.55 54.09 -0.21 153.33 0.32 105.43 -82.82 97.27 -0.55 97.64 -4.24 0.35 574.22

0.98% 2.52% 71.25% 1.36% 14.35% -0.01% 6.30% 0.19% 4.15% -7.76% 3.15% -0.15% 14.44% -0.58% 0.01% 2.16%

-9.36 -14.18% -21.88 -1.44%

-51.92 -13.77% 434.61 -31.30 11.14 -177.04 24.80 -112.12 43.73 133.18 35.59 -17.50 -163.31 17.28% -1.29% 6.59% -6.96% 2.32% -3.63% 12.28% 19.70% 4.86% -0.60% -0.61%

Percent

National Share

Different ial Shift

National Growth Rate

District s District's Sectoral Growth Factor

Proportionality Mix

Differential Shift