CopyIntroduction The Project Objective Power in the form of electricity in todays world is one of the basic necessities.

In every household the To analyze the various factors usage of electrically operated appliances affecting demand of power in India. is increasing day by day and so is the Further, estimate the demand that may demand for electricity. However, the arise in the near future. The Project rate of increase in supply is not keeping pace with the rise in demand. The Relevance immediate implication of this is the acute shortage in the supply of power. The Government of India has said the country was facing a power shortage of The power sector is of paramount 70,000 MW and assured that several importance in a developing economy measures, including a change in policy such as ours. The reasons behind the of hydro-electric generation, were being same are as follows: considered to fulfill the requirement . Prevalent uncertainty in inflation [1] Graph stating the increase in perand rapidly rising energy prices. capita power consumption in India Emergence of alternative fuels and technologies. (in energy supply and end-use) 2007-08 Changes in lifestyles, institutional changes etc. 1999-00 For these reasons it has become imperative to use modeling techniques 1989-90 which capture the factors like price, income, population, technology, 1980-81 economics, and demographics with 0 200 400 600 800 respect to consumption of electricity. In view of the ongoing reform process, with associated unbundling of Thus, it becomes imperative to come up electricity supply services, tariff reforms with a sound estimation of demand for

and rising role of the private sector, a the coming years. This would help in realistic assessment of demand assumes decreasing the poor quality of service ever-greater importance. and minimizing intermittent blackouts. Review of Literature Peak electricity demand in a given season is subject to a range of uncertainties, including underlying population growth, changing technology, Energy in India for the Coming economic conditions, prevailing weather Decades conditions as well as the general Anil Kakodkar randomness inherent in individual Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission, India 3 May 2007 usage. rd Project Synopsis | Indian Power Sector : The Various Economic Implications 2 The reforms initiated in India since the beginning of the nineties have led to These rates are the basis of the rapid economic progress and better projections reported . It may be [3] growth rates. In the first decade of this recalled that historical primary energy century the growth rates seem to be still and electricity growth rates during 1981better. Studies by several academics 2000 were 6 percent per year and 7.8 and consultants forecast continued high percent per year respectively. growth rate for the next several decades. Based on the growth rates given in the above table, per capita electricity Electricity is the most important generation would reach about 5300 kWh component of the primary energy. per year in the year 2052 and total Electricity-GDP elasticity was 3.0 till the about 8000 TWh. This would correspond mid-sixties. It has also decreased since to an installed capacity of around 1300 then. Reasons for these energy GWe. Annual primary energy economy elasticity changes are: consumption would increase from about demographic shifts from rural to urban 13.5 EJ in 2002-03 to about 117 EJ in areas, structural economic changes 2052-53. By then the cumulative energy towards lighter industry, impressive

expenditure will be about 2400 EJ. growth of services, increased use of energy efficient devices, increased India Power Demand Surges efficiency of conversion equipments and By Goutam Bhatia inter-fuel substitution with more efficient Energybiz Magazine May/June 2007 alternatives. Based on the CMIE data , [5] The Indian power sector has witnessed a the average value of the Electricity-GDP strong all round revival in the last five elasticity during 1991-2000 has been years with growth rate averaging at calculated to be 1.213 and that of the about 6 percent per year. When India primary energy- GDP elasticity to be achieved freedom in 1947, the installed 0.907. Estimating the future GDP growth capacity was 1.4 gigawatts. Today it is rates of India from the projections made 127 gigawatts. The current five year by Dominic Wilson and Roopa plan envisages adding another 68 Prushothaman , taking the primary [2] gigawatts by 2012. energy intensity fall to be 1.2 percent per year , extrapolating the electricity [6] The country has emerged as the second intensity fall from past data till 2022 and largest potential destination for subsequently a constant fall of 1.2 investments in power after China. The percent year, the growth rates of the government of India has made certain primary energy and electrical energy provisions which will attract investment have been estimated as follows. leading to strengthening the existing transmission and distribution network Period Primary Energy and also creating additional Percent Annual Growth transmission network to match the 2002-2022 4.6 envisaged generating capacity. The 2022-2032 4.5 investment to meet this end would be 2032-2042 4.5 $210 billion. The transformer industry in 2042-2052 3.9 Project Synopsis | Indian Power Sector : The Various Economic Implications 3 India is a matured industry estimated at

 Adequate Capacity Growth to Sustain around $1.5 billion. The growth is GDP Growth at 8% plus. expected to be in range of 18 percent a Reliable & Quality Power On 24 x 7 year. The growth will be driven basis, at leastin Urban & Industrialized predominantly by domestic market areas. requirements. 100% Rural Electrification with Adequate & Qualitative Power for irrigation purpose. India s Power Sector Outlook Increasing the Role of Hydel & Exhibition on Power, Exhibition on Energy, Conference on Power, Conference on Energy, Indian Power sector, Renewable Energy in the Energy Mix. Mumbai 25 Dec 2008 Urgent need to develop the alternatives, both in the Fuel & The Power & Energy Infrastructure Technology terms. sector in India is poised for a major take Focus on implementation (Outcomes off. The APDRP (Accelerated Power are more important than Outlays). Development & Reforms Programme As espoused by the Indian Prime 2002 - 2012) has seen an addition of Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh around 22,000 MW during last five years. And during the next five years, a Execution capacity addition of over 78,000 MW has to be setup by 2012. (A commitment to Methodology increase 15,600 MW capacity per annum). Parameters: The Market Potential to sustain the GDP Number of households. Growth rate of India @ 8% plus per Average residential electricity annum needs the power sector to grow price rupees per kWh. at 1.8 - 2 times the GDP rate of growth as espoused by economists, planners Average business electricity price and industry experts. This would mean a rupees per kWh. YOY capacity addition of 18,000 - 20,000 Household sector per capita MW to achieve this ambitious plan of disposable income. moving India to a Developed Economy

On-site Project status, as an Economic Global Powerhouse. The Target Mission: Analysis POWER for All by 2012 would mean achieving the target of 1000 KwHr (Units) of per capita consumption of electricity by this period. Even after more than sixty years of Indias Independence, the Power To achieve this goal, the following are Sector is still a monopolistic market, critical: with the government undertakings ruling Attract US $ 250 Billion Investment the roost. Having said so, new private into the sector. (FDI & Domestic players have entered the market and Investment Combined) are making consistent efforts to consolidate their market share. With the Project Synopsis | Indian Power Sector : The Various Economic Implications 4 ever rising demand for power, their will also be considered for the entry into the market was just a matter study. of time. Regression Smoothing Technique Heres a look at the key market players Barometric Forecasting in the power sector of India: Proper error determination methods will be employed to measure the deviation Government Undertakings: between forecasted values and NTPC: National Thermal Power corresponding actual values. Corporation. Sources of Data NHPC: National Hydel Power Corporation. NPCIL: Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. Secondary information for study will be Private Undertakings: collected from rich internet database BSES: Reliance Energy. sources like indiastats.com, EBSCOhost, and other search engines along with

Tata Power. Analytical Tools various online journals. Also weekly economic surveys like Economic & Used Political Weekly will be consulted. References [1] Sushil Kumar Sinde, Union Minister for Power, at Lok Sabha 29 Apr 07 [2]Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, Dreaming The statistical tools which are to be used with BRICs: the path to 2050 Global Economics Paper No 99, in the study are as follows: Goldmann Sachs, 1 October 2003. st [3] R. B. Grover and Subash Chandra, A strategy for growth Time series analysis: the of electrical energy in India, Document No 10, Department fluctuations in time series data of Atomic Energy, Mumbai, India, August 2004. [4] International Energy Agency (IEA), Key World Energy arises due to secular trends, Statistics, 2003. cyclical fluctuations, seasonal [5] Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) 2002, Energy, April 2002 variations and random influences [6] International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2002 Highlights p 32. Project Synopsis | Indian Power Sector : The Various Economic Implications 5 and paste to create a document