SPEC Barometer Survey:

Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya Release Date: 20th November 2012

Synovate is now Ipsos Synovate

2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

Contents
Country conditions Governance issues Political Attitudes and Choices ICC issues

Methodology

Survey Methodology

Dates of polling Sample Size Sampling methodology Universe

10th 16th November 2012 2,000 respondents Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Data collection methodology Sampling error

+/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Sample Structure Statistics

Province Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western TOTAL

Sample Frame statistics (September 2012) 262 176 298 210 96 263 493 202 2000

% 13 9 15 10 5 13 25 10 100

Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) 2,548,038 1,711,549 2,907,293 2,042,770 929,158 2,547,980 4,795,482 1,980,090 19,462,360

13 9 15 10 5 13 25 10 100

Quality Control Measures

Pre-testing questionnaire (testing the validity of the questions amongst a small sample) Physical back-checks (re-visiting the respondents) Interviewers accompanied by supervisor At least 50% of the survey respondents back-checked through telephone calls i.e. CATI back-checks Data entered through scanning technology (eliminates errors and ensures fast turn around) Data checks for consistency

Ipsos Political Polls Sponsors:

Ipsos Synovate funded the November 2012 opinion poll

Regular polling:
Ipsos Synovate commitment is that we will continue providing opinion poll results every 4 6 weeks in the run up to the election . Last poll was released on 2nd October 2012

Ipsos Political Polls SMS Short Code 7560

Short-code for Ipsos Opinion Polls Results

Ipsos Synovate poll results are now available through an SMS short 7560 Rationale
Making information more available to general public even after media briefing In the past Ipsos poll results have been published on our website and there is low access to internet and higher access to mobile phone

Respondent Demographic Profiles

No formal school Nairobi

5% 15% 22% 15% 24% 6% 8% 2% 2%

10% 9% 13% 25% 5% 15% 13% 10%

Some secondary education Secondary education completed Some middle level college (not university) Completed mid level college (Not university) Some University education University education completed

Region

Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western

Education level

Some primary education Primary education completed

Gender

Female Male

51% 49%

18 - 24

28% 30% 18% 25%

Age

25 - 34 35 - 44 45+

Setting

Urban Rural

37% 63%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

Mobile phone ownership

Own a mobile phone

84%
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Country Conditions

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In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya currently? (By Total)

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

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In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya currently? (Top 4 mentions by region)

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

12

During the last five years, have the general economic conditions for you and your family? (By Total)

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

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During the last five years, have the general economic conditions for you and your family.? (By total, setting and region)

% saying their general economic condition has "worsened"

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

14

Experience with crime

Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months? Did you report it to the police?

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

Base: Crime victims (n=203)

15

What is the most common criminal activity in your local area? (By Total)

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

16

Governance Issues

17

Has the new constitution changed life for you in any way? (By Total)
No; 56%

Not sure; 5%

Yes; 39%
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
18

What is the main change that you have experienced or noticed, whether good or bad? (By those who said YES)
More freedom/democracy More public attention to gender/women Improved judiciary More accountability Economic improvement Less corruption More efficient/faster service from government departments Better police performance More poverty/higher costs of government
Base: Those who indicated any change (n =775)
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30% 14% 11% 8% 8% 7% 7% 4% 4%

What is the main change that you have experienced or noticed, whether good or bad? (Top 3 mentions by those who said YES: by region and gender)

More freedom/democracy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
30% 14% 11% 32% 21% 10% 20% 13% 56%

More public attention to gender/women

Improved judiciary

46% 36% 31% 12% 11% 0% 28% 27% 18% 11% 16% 19% 8% 8% 5% 40% 35% 25% 26% 16% 5%

9% 5%

Base: Those who indicated any change (n =775)

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Awareness of helicopter crash / confidence in the investigation

Which senior cabinet minister (together with 5 other people died in a helicopter crash a few moths ago?

94%
How confident are you that the real truth as to what caused the accident will ever be discovered and revealed? ?

Base = 94% 19%

40% 26% 15%

% who could name Saitoti or Ojode Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

% who are "very confident"

% who are "somewhat confident"

% who have "no confidence"

% who are "not sure" / NR

Base: Those aware (n=1.881)

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Political Attitudes and Choices

22

Electoral Preparedness and intended participation (By Total)

Do you have an Identity card? 100% 92% 91% Do you intend to register to vote when the voter registration exercise kicks off?

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% % saying they have an identity card % saying they intend to vote

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

23

How important is the outcome of the next election to you personally?(By Total)

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

78%

18% 3% Very important Somewhat important Not sure 1% No Response

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

24

Attendance of Political Rallies in Kenya

Have you attended any presidential candidate campaign rally in the last 3 months? (By Total) How many rallies have you attended?

61%

No; 84%

Yes, 16%
One political rally

33% 7%
Two to three political rallies More than 3 political rallies

46% For which candidate / candidates? 23% 20% 15% 12%

7%
Peter Kenneth

4%
Eugene Wamalwa

3%
Martha Karua

7%
Others

Raila Odinga

Uhuru Kenyatta

William Ruto

Kalonzo Musyoka

Musalia Mudavadi

Base = 16%; Those indicating that they have attended a political rally in the last 3 months (n=312)
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Which political party do you feel closest to, if any? (By Total)

32%

22% 18%

10% 6% 3%
ODM TNA URP Wiper Democratic Party UDF

2%
PNU

1%
KANU

1%
Narc Kenya

2%
Kenya National Congress

3%
Others None

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

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Which political party do you feel closest to if any? (By Region)

ODM
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western
24% 14% 6% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 42% 46% 40% 35% 21% 19% 13% 4% 44% 39% 31% 26% 19% 9% 1% 1% 4% 30% 18% 12% 1% 1% 1% 19% 76% 73%

TNA

Wiper Democratic Party

URP

UDF

None

19% 13% 1% 7% 4%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

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Which political party do you feel closest to if any? -Time Series

KANU ODM PNU UDF Kenya National Congress
60%

Narc Kenya ODM Kenya / Wiper Democratic Party TNA URP Others

None

50%

48% 43% 41% 38% 36% 33% 33% 31% 27% 28% 41% 34% 35% 32% 27% 22% 17% 16% 13% 9% 3% 2% 0 4% 3% 2% 0 5% 3% 0 5% 4% 2% 0 10% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% 6% 4% 2% 0% 18% 15% 10% 6% 3% 2% 1% 32%

40%

30%

20%

22% 21%

22% 21%

21% 17%

18%

21% 14%

23% 20%

22%

10%

7%
0%

8% 2% 1% 0 0

1% 0

7% 4% 1% 0

2% 1% 0

7% 4% 3% 0

Political Party Affiliation Time Series

% saying they support any political party

84% 72%

85%

82%

Apr 2012
Base: All Respondents

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Nov 2012
29

Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate? (By Total)
50%

September 2012 survey

40%
36%

33%
30%

30%

November 2012 survey

26%
9% 5%

20%

6%

10%

9%

8%

7%

11%
1% 3% 1% 1% 1%

4%
0%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

30

Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate? (By Region)

Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western 41% 51% 76% 23% 47% 10% 6% 40% 23% 9% 6% 24% 29% 32% 73% 2% 3% 2% 0% 33% 7% 2% 0% 0%

Kalonzo Musyoka 7% 4% 1% 1% 4% 38% 1% 1%

Musalia Mudavadi 5% 1% 1% 3% 0% 2% 2% 24%

Peter Kenneth 9% 2% 3% 3% 0% 1% 3% 1%

Undecided 7% 28% 9% 9% 6% 9% 7% 21%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

31

Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate? - Time Series
100%

Raila Odinga William Ruto Eugene Wamalwa

80%

Kalonzo Musyoka Martha Karua Peter Kenneth None

Uhuru Kenyatta Musalia Mudavadi Prof James Ole Kiyapi

Others

60%

48% 40% 36% 36% 42% 38% 32% 34% 24% 20% 14% 8% 7% 6% 4% 0% Mar 2010 11% 8% 5% 1% 0% Jul 2010 10% 7% 2% 1% 0% Oct 2010 14% 11% 5% 4% 2% 1% 0% Dec 2010 8% 6% 3% 1% 0% Mar 2011 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% Jul 2011 10% 5% 2% 1% 0% Oct 2011 10% 4% 2% 1% 0% Dec 2011 April 2012 8% 5% 1% 0% 21% 18% 12% 7% 4% 1% Jul 2012 9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% Sept 2012 Nov 2012 32% 22% 22% 34% 33% 30% 26% 23% 36% 33%

0%

-20%

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Of all the possible presidential candidates, which one would make you most unhappy if she or he won the election? (By Total)
50%

40%

31%
30%

30% 21%

20%

10%

8% 5% 3% 2%

0%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

33

If a second round run-off election is necessary and your preferred candidate is not one of the two candidates taking part off, how likely are you to vote? (By Total)
Certain or very likely, 58%

Possibly but not certain, 15%

Unlikely/will not vote, 14%

Undecided, 8% No Response, 4%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

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Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...

60%
49% 46% 42% 46% 42% 41% 37% 31% 28% 23% 22% 44% 49%

50%

47%

47%

40%

36%

30%

29% 27%

29%

21%

20%

17% 12%

17%

16%

10%

0%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferred candidate is not in the run-off? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
Scenario: Raila not in the run-off

Raila supporters would support

Musalia Mudavadi Peter Kenneth Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Kalonzo Musyoka

23% 15% 11% 8% 8%

Base n=504 (Railas supporters in Round 1)

Scenario: Uhuru Not in the run-off

Musalia Mudavadi

22% 17% 17% 9% 8%

Uhuru supporters would support

Kalonzo Musyoka William Ruto Raila Odinga Peter Kenneth

Base n=429 (Uluru's supporters in Round 1)

Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferred candidate is not in the run-off? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
Scenario: Ruto Not in the run-off Uhuru Kenyatta Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga Eugene Wamalwa Kalonzo Musyoka 58% 12% 8% 5% 5%

Rutos supporters would support

Base n=120 (Kalonzos supporters in Round 1)

Scenario: Kalonzo not in the run-off Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga 23% 15% 13% 5% 5%

Kalonzos supporters would support

Musalia Mudavadi Martha Karua William Ruto

Base n=120 (Kalonzos supporters in Round 1)

The publics priorities for the next president

What are the two most important things you want the next president to do?
Improve the economy/reduce hunger (except for youth) Enhance infrastructure Improve education Reduce tribal tensions/divisions, promote unity Enhance security Economic efforts for youth Fight/reduce corruption, recover lost/grabbed public property Reduce rate of inflation/stop/reduce rising cost of living Improve medical facilities Support the new constitution (specific area unspecified) Reduce inequality Improve agriculture Other DK / NR

46% 25% 22% 21% 16% 16% 15% 13% 10% 7% 5% 5% 14% 4%
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Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

ICC Issues

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What four individuals have been named by the ICC to stand trial in The Hague for the post-election violence next year? (By Total - % who could identify each defendant)

Uhuru Kenyatta

89%

William Ruto

85%

Joshua Sang

52%

Francis Muthaura

45%

DK/None/NR
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

7%

40

What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the next elections? (By Total)

They should not contest

41%

They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the ICC trials

39%

They should contest and then ignore The Hague/ICC trials

20%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

41

What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the next elections? (By Region)
They should not contest They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the iCC trials They should contest and then ignore The Hague/ICC trials
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 51% 50% 41% 40% 30% 20% 20% 11% 10% 0% Total Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley 3% North Eastern Eastern Central 15% 39% 37% 52% 48% 36% 27% 21% 15% 13% 14% 2% Western 42 27% 68% 75%

53% 45% 42% 33% 23% 48% 37%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the next elections? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
They should not contest They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the iCC trials They should contest and then ignore The Hague/ICC trials 75% 62% 65% 59% 54% 38% 32% 27% 17% 4%
Kalonzo Musyoka Supporters

37%

7%
Musalia Mudavadi Supporters

8%

8%

4%
William Ruto Supporters

Raila Odinga Supporters

Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

43

Whether or not you support the ICC process, how certain are you that Uhuru and Ruto will actually go to the Hague for trial? (By Total)

Very certain they will not go, 17% Very certain they will go, 54%

Uncertain, 25%

No Response, 1%

RTA, 2%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

44

Whether or not you support the ICC process, how certain are you that Uhuru and Ruto will actually go to the Hague for trial? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
Very certain they will go Very certain they will not go Uncertain NR / RTA

64% 55%

65% 54%

41% 30% 25% 20% 11% 6% 10% 6% 2% Kalonzo Musyoka Supporters Musalia Mudavadi Supporters Raila Odinga Supporters 19% 13% 4% Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters 4% William Ruto Supporters

28%

25% 18%

Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

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Points to Ponder: 2013, a succession election

Main current political uncertainties: Political alliances yet to be finalized (4th December deadline) Too many presidential candidates, no running mates Additional uncertainty variables Outcome of voter registration process (how close to the 18m target?) ICC (High Court judgment on Section 6; 11th April dates with destiny Insecurity threats (Al-Shabaab attacks, pastoralists-conflicts, MRC threats, usual political militias , etc) The new electoral administrative architecture

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Questions? Comments?

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For further information contact: Dr. Tom Wolf 0733 637 023 twolf@wananchi.com Margaret Ireri Managing Director Margaret.ireri@ipsos.com

Follow us on twitter: @IpsosSynovateKe

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