Bi 3XY DNG KHUNG PHN TCH

PGS. TS. H Nam Khnh Giao

Ni dung

C s l thuyt M hnh nghin cu Bin nghin cu Thit k nghin cu

C s l thuyt khung phn tch (khung khi nim)

Mc ch - trnh by mt bin l thuyt chu nh

hng bi cc nhn t no .

Chng ta quan st chng trong thc tin bng cc bin

i din.

Kim nh mi quan h gia cc bin bng phng php nh lng.

V d:

L thuyt: cu ph thuc vo th hiu (taste/preference) Quan st: doanh s ph thuc vo cc proxiers?

L thuyt: GOOD ?

Gii thch c quan st thc t hin hnh D on c s thay i trong tng lai

Hu ch: c th ng dng c trong tnh

hung c th n gin trong vic gii thch cc hin tng L thuyt c kim nh trong thc t

T l thuyt n quan st thc t

Concept A: Tng cu Concept B: Mc gi

Tru tng

L thuyt

Thc t

Doanh s

CPI

Quan st

Tng quan l thuyt cho nghin cu

L thuyt truyn thng Cc l thuyt mi Tng hp v m rng hoc thu hp theo phm vi nghin cu Mt v d thng thng t mu nghin cu tiu chun

Chu trnh khoa hc (Bacon)

Q U Y Tng qut ha Gi thuyt N P Quan stKim nh
L thuyt D I N D C H

Tng quan l thuyt

L tm kim xem vn m ta ang quan tm nghin cu c nghin cu trc y cha v kt qu ca n nh th no. i vi ti khoa hc: Nu pht hin c ngi nghin cu ri th cng ng nn chn nn m nn chn nhng ti khc, hoc pht trin thm mt s vn nghin cu t cng trnh c. Cc chuyn gia nh gi phn ny s da vo:

Tnh logic trong lp lun ca ta Tnh y trong cc tham kho ca ta cc cng trnh nghin cu c lin quan trc . Tnh lin quan n mc tiu nghin cu ca ti

Tng quan l thuyt

Cu trc ca phn ny c xy dng da trn M hnh phn tch (Analytical Framework) ca nghin cu Trong mt s trng hp, m hnh ny cn c gi l M hnh khi nim (Conceptual Framework)

S din t mi quan h gia cc nhn t (bin s) y l c s xy dng cc gi thuyt

V d v m hnh phn tch

Gii tnh Ngh nghip Thu nhp Bin s c lp (Independent variables)
Mc chi tiu cho thi trang

Bin s ph thuc (Dependent variables)

Cc thut ng (terms, terminologies)

Cc thut ng cn c m t r rng

N gip ngi c hiu cc khi nim theo cch m ta hiu VD: Thnh qu bn hng trong bi ny c nh ngha l doanh thu tnh bng tin thu c ca doanh nghip khi bn cc SP ca DN lm ra.. V d trn ni vi ngi c rng, doanh thu tnh bng s lng SP khng c dng trong trng hp ny..

Cc bin s (variables) Nhn t nh hng

Bin s l mt quan st

N c nhiu gi tr khc nhau bin s hng s (ch c 1 gi tr duy nht, khng i) VD1: Gii tnh l mt bin s v gii tnh c th l Nam (gi tr =1) hoc l N (gi tr = 0) VD2: Doanh thu/thng cng l 1 bin s vi gi tr thay i theo mi thi k

Cc bin s (variables) Nhn t nh hng

Bin s l mt quan st

N c nhiu gi tr khc nhau bin s hng s (ch c 1 gi tr duy nht, khng i) VD1: Gii tnh l mt bin s v gii tnh c th l Nam (ga tr =1) hoc l N (gi tr = 0) VD2: Doanh thu/thng cng l 1 bin s vi gi tr thay i theo mi thi k

Cc bin s
Hai loi bin s (c bn) Bin s ph thuc

Th hin mc tiu chu tc ng ang c quan tm Gii tnh VD: Mc chi tiu
Ngh nghip
Thu nhp
cho thi trang

Bin s c lp (Independent variables)

Bin s ph thuc (Dependent variables)

Cc bin s

Bin c lp

L cc nhn t tc ng vo mc tiu k trn

C th c nhiu Bin c lp cng tc ng vo mc tiu Chn bin c lp no quan st l tu theo mc tiu nghin cu ca ti

Bin kim sot

Gii tnh
Ngh nghip Thu nhp

Mc chi tiu cho thi trang

Bin kim sot

Tnh thm m ca thi trang

Bin ngoi vi

C mt nh hng khng d on c i vi bin ph thuc VD: Mc chi tiu cho thi trang c th chu nh hng ca tnh hnh n nh v kinh t ca t nc V hnh thc, bin ngoi vi cng tng t nh bin kim sot: khng phi mc tiu ta ang quan tm nhng ta tnh n chng (1 cch chn lc) khi nghin cu tc ng ca cc bin c lp vo bin ph thuc

Bin iu tit

L loi bin tc ng n quan h gia bin c lp v bin ph thuc VD Ni sinh sng

Gii tnh
Ngh nghip
Thu nhp
Mc chi tiu cho thi trang

Bin kim sot

Tnh thm m ca thi trang

Bin trung gian

L loi bin gn lc tc ng ca bin c lp vo bin ph thuc

Ni sinh sng

Gii tnh

Ngh nghip
Mc chi tiu cho thi trang

Thu nhp

Hc vn
Tnh thm m ca thi trang

Bin kim sot

Tm lc cc loi bin s
Loi bin s nh ngha Mt bin s c o lng xc nh s tc ng (treatment) hay thay i (manipulation) ca bin c lp nh th no Cc hnh thc th hin khc Bin thnh qu (outcome) Bin kt qu (result) Bin tiu ch (Criterion) Ph thuc (Dependent)

c lp (independent) Kim sot (Control)

Tc ng (treatment) Mt bin s c thay i xc nh nh Yu t (Factor) hng ca n i vi bin ph thuc Bin d on (Predictor)

Mt bin s c quan h vi bin ph thuc, m s nh hng ca n cn phi c loi b

Bin gii hn (Restricting)

Ngoi vi (Extraneous) Trung gian hay iu tit (Moderator)

Mt bin s c quan h vi bin ph thuc hoc bin c lp, khng phi l mc tiu Bin e da (Threatening) nghin cu Mt bin s c quan h vi bin ph thuc hoc bin c lp v c nh hng n bin ph thuc
Bin tng tc (Interacting variable)

Thit k nghin cu

K hoch khoa hc nhm gii quyt vn /cu hi nghin cu. Nu ra tip cn c bn nht gii quyt vn . Ba cch tip cn c bn:

M t (Descriptive) (khng mnh) Nhn qu (Causal) (ph hp vi MBA, PhD) H thng (Simultaneous equation) (too hard)

Thit k nghin cu (tt)

M t (Descriptive):

Tr li who, what, why and how Observation-data: graphs/cross tables Hnh thnh mi quan h gia cc bin Kim nh bng Econometrics model/Quantitative methods/Factor analysis

Econometrics/Factor analysis

Ngun d liu

Data:

Secondary: th cp (already exists) Primary: s cp (you collect it) T iu tra Cng b

Ngun:

Phng php thu thp d liu

Secondary data:

Bo co ni b, bo co c n bn , th vin, web Telephone, in person (face to face), e-mail

Primary data: