SECULAR BULL & BEAR MARKETS PROFILE: 2011

(#)
Total
Years

Market Cycle
From
To
1901
1921
1929
1933
1937
1942
1966
1982
2000

1920
1928
1932
1936
1941
1965
1981
1999
????

20
8
4
4
5
24
16
18

P/E Ratio Inflation

Beg. End Beg. End

Market
BEAR
BULL
BEAR
BULL
BEAR
BULL
BEAR
BULL
BEAR

23
5
28
11
18
9
21
7
42

(#)
Positive
Years

(#)
Negative
Years

(%)
Positive
Years

(%)
Negative
Years

Max
Pos. Yrs
In Row

Max
Neg. Yrs
In Row

Avg Gain
In Pos.
Years

Avg Loss
In Neg.
Years

Change
Begin To
End

9
7
0
4
1
18
9
16
7

11
1
4
0
4
6
7
2
5

45%
88%
0%
100%
20%
75%
56%
89%
58%

55%
13%
100%
0%
80%
25%
44%
11%
42%

2
5
0
4
1
4
3
9
3

3
1
4
0
3
1
2
1
3

30%
24%
n/a
34%
28%
16%
13%
18%
12%

-17%
-3%
-32%
n/a
-16%
-8%
-15%
-4%
-13%

2%
317%
-80%
200%
-38%
774%
-10%
1214%
6%

42%
83%

58%
17%

2.1
5.8

2.7
0.9

21%
19%

-18%
-5%

-14%
810%

5 -2% 16%
22 -11% -2%
8
0% -10%
19 -5% 1%
12 4% 5%
23 11% 2%
8
3% 10%
42 6% 2%
3%

WEIGHTED AVERAGE BEAR (excluding 2000)

WEIGHTED AVERAGE BULL

Notes: The index and returns reflect the Dow Jones Industrial Average at year-end from Dow Jones & Company. The P/E ratio is based upon the S&P 500 as developed and presented by Robert Shiller (Yale; Irrational Exuberance). Bull & Bear
Market classifications are based upon Crestmont's assessment of cycles using peak and trough P/E ratios, inflation trends, and other analysis. The presentation does not include dividends, taxes, inflation adjustments, or transaction costs.

RETURN PATTERN (Red = down year; Green = up year; #% = annual change in the index; starting and ending DJIA index is presented on the ends of the rows)
19011920: BEAR

71

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19211928: BULL

72

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19291932: BEAR

300

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19331936: BULL

60

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19371941: BEAR

180

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19421965: BULL

111

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19661981: BEAR

969

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation

8% -10% -31% 82% -4% -22% 11% 30% -33%

23
-2%

22
6%

14
7%

875

16
0%

19
1%

19
3%

13
6%

13
-4%

0%

29% 48%

5
-11%

12
1%

16
-2%

8
-6%

8
2%

8
0%

10
2%

15
8%

14
4%

14
-8%

12
3%

11
1%

11
1%

12
8%

9
17%

6
18%

7
15%

72

5
16%

300

22
-2%

-17% -34% -53% -23%

28
0%

21
-2%

15
-9%

67%

4%

39% 25%

11
-5%

12
3%

13
2%

60

8
-10%

180

19
1%

-33% 28% -3% -13% -15%

18
4%

14
-2%

8%

14% 12% 27% -8%

11
6%

-19% 15%
22
3%

16
-1%

15
1%

10
3%

111

12
5%

2%

-2% 13% 18% 14%

8%

-4% 44% 21%

2% -13% 34% 16% -9% 19% -11% 17% 15% 11%

14
8%

11
14%

11
8%

12
2%

12
1%

18
1%

4% -15% 5%

6%

21
4%

17
4%

11
2%

13
2%
19
5%

15
6%

20% 20% -4% 28% 23%

7
6%

11497

18
1%

13% 22% -3% 26% 30%

21
3%

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
2000????: BEAR

0% -24% 42% 38% -2% -38% 47% 15% -18% 0%

9
11%

P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19821999: BULL

-9%

12
8%

18
3%

16
6%

11
11%

10
9%

12% 27% -4% 20%

14
4%

16
5%

15% -9%
9
13%

18
1%

4%

14%

2%

33% 26% 23% 16% 25%

20
3%

21
3%

20
3%

6%

42
3%

26
3%

26
3%

27
3%

22
3%

21
2%

23
3%

26
3%

17
2%

20
1%

19
1%

20
1%

23
1%

23
2%

875

9
11%

6% -34% 19% 11%

17
0%

4%

15
3%

9
8%

-1% 16%

21
4%

18
4%

16
3%

10
7%

3%

26
3%

17
5%

18
0%

12
6%

-6% -7% -17% 25%

24
2%

14
1%

15% -17% -28% 38% 18% -17% -3%

16
4%

26
2%

11
4%

11
1%

13
2%

32
3%

9
4%

2%

10
-1%

969

8
10%
31
2%

36
2%

42
2%

Copyright 2003-2012, Crestmont Research (www.CrestmontResearch.com)

11497