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Stock Secular Chart
Stock Secular Chart
(#)
Total
Years
Market Cycle
From
To
1901
1921
1929
1933
1937
1942
1966
1982
2000
1920
1928
1932
1936
1941
1965
1981
1999
????
20
8
4
4
5
24
16
18
Market
BEAR
BULL
BEAR
BULL
BEAR
BULL
BEAR
BULL
BEAR
23
5
28
11
18
9
21
7
42
(#)
Positive
Years
(#)
Negative
Years
(%)
Positive
Years
(%)
Negative
Years
Max
Pos. Yrs
In Row
Max
Neg. Yrs
In Row
Avg Gain
In Pos.
Years
Avg Loss
In Neg.
Years
Change
Begin To
End
9
7
0
4
1
18
9
16
7
11
1
4
0
4
6
7
2
5
45%
88%
0%
100%
20%
75%
56%
89%
58%
55%
13%
100%
0%
80%
25%
44%
11%
42%
2
5
0
4
1
4
3
9
3
3
1
4
0
3
1
2
1
3
30%
24%
n/a
34%
28%
16%
13%
18%
12%
-17%
-3%
-32%
n/a
-16%
-8%
-15%
-4%
-13%
2%
317%
-80%
200%
-38%
774%
-10%
1214%
6%
42%
83%
58%
17%
2.1
5.8
2.7
0.9
21%
19%
-18%
-5%
-14%
810%
5 -2% 16%
22 -11% -2%
8
0% -10%
19 -5% 1%
12 4% 5%
23 11% 2%
8
3% 10%
42 6% 2%
3%
Notes: The index and returns reflect the Dow Jones Industrial Average at year-end from Dow Jones & Company. The P/E ratio is based upon the S&P 500 as developed and presented by Robert Shiller (Yale; Irrational Exuberance). Bull & Bear
Market classifications are based upon Crestmont's assessment of cycles using peak and trough P/E ratios, inflation trends, and other analysis. The presentation does not include dividends, taxes, inflation adjustments, or transaction costs.
RETURN PATTERN (Red = down year; Green = up year; #% = annual change in the index; starting and ending DJIA index is presented on the ends of the rows)
19011920: BEAR
71
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19211928: BULL
72
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19291932: BEAR
300
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19331936: BULL
60
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19371941: BEAR
180
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19421965: BULL
111
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19661981: BEAR
969
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
23
-2%
22
6%
14
7%
875
16
0%
19
1%
19
3%
13
6%
13
-4%
0%
29% 48%
5
-11%
12
1%
16
-2%
8
-6%
8
2%
8
0%
10
2%
15
8%
14
4%
14
-8%
12
3%
11
1%
11
1%
12
8%
9
17%
6
18%
7
15%
72
5
16%
300
22
-2%
21
-2%
15
-9%
67%
4%
39% 25%
11
-5%
12
3%
13
2%
60
8
-10%
180
19
1%
14
-2%
8%
-19% 15%
22
3%
16
-1%
15
1%
10
3%
111
12
5%
2%
8%
14
8%
11
14%
11
8%
12
2%
12
1%
18
1%
4% -15% 5%
6%
21
4%
17
4%
11
2%
13
2%
19
5%
15
6%
11497
18
1%
21
3%
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
2000????: BEAR
9
11%
P/E Ratio
CPI: Inflation
19821999: BULL
-9%
12
8%
18
3%
16
6%
11
11%
10
9%
16
5%
15% -9%
9
13%
18
1%
4%
14%
2%
20
3%
21
3%
20
3%
6%
42
3%
26
3%
26
3%
27
3%
22
3%
21
2%
23
3%
26
3%
17
2%
20
1%
19
1%
20
1%
23
1%
23
2%
875
9
11%
4%
15
3%
9
8%
-1% 16%
21
4%
18
4%
16
3%
10
7%
3%
26
3%
17
5%
18
0%
12
6%
14
1%
16
4%
26
2%
11
4%
11
1%
13
2%
32
3%
9
4%
2%
10
-1%
969
8
10%
31
2%
36
2%
42
2%
11497