Challenges

facing Minnesota's forests in the coming decades

Peter Reich Department of Forest Resources University of Minnesota

We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that failure to do so would betray our children and future genera9ons. some may s9ll deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devasta9ng impact of raging res, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms. President Barack Obama, 21 January 2013

Minnesota Forest Resources Council Assessment Advisory Panel

Environmental Groups Forest Industry Natural Resources Research InsEtute University of Minnesota Minnesota Department of Natural Resources USDA Forest Service

Where are our forests?

Where are our forests?

How old are our forests? All-aged

MN Forest Area Harvested Each Year (acres) 1991

171,000

1996
193,000

2008
134,000

1991
1.1%

1996
1.3%

2008
0.9%

Source: DAmato, A.W., N.W. Bolton, C.R. Blinn, and A.R. Ek. 2009. Current status and long-term trends of silvicultural practices in Minnesota: a 2008 assessment. Staff Paper Series No. 205, Department of Forest Resources, College of Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resource Sciences, University of Minnesota. St. Paul, MN. 58 p.

Challenges
Climate change Forest health threats Forest fragmentaEon and parcelizaEon Changes in biodiversity and wildlife habitat

Climate Change
Climate change will aect: Ecosystem structure, funcEon and biodiversity Watersheds (water ow, quality) Forest dependent human communiEes and economies

Forest Health Threats

Forests will change following disturbance (re, windstorms, insects). How do we sustain diversity and ecosystem funcEon in the face of invasives, pests and climate change?

Forest FragmentaEon, ParcelizaEon and Development

Impacts of parcelizaEon and fragmentaEon on rural forests? Impacts of loss of tree cover on urban ecosystems?

Biodiversity and Wildlife Habitat

Risk to biodiversity from climate change, harvest, and parcelizaEon. What management strategies miEgate negaEve changes or promote adaptaEon and resilience?

? ? ?

Climate change is extremes (not just a little warmer on average)" More heat waves, oods, droughts" Increasing frequency of severe events thunderstorms, tornadoes, wildres"

Windstorm

Before and after 1999 blow-down

Dave Hansen

Buckthorn
David Cappaert

Emerald ash borer

INVASIVE SPECIES
Earthworms

Native insects can also cause forest change Benign native insects can outbreak in a warmer climate Mountain pine beetle in British Columbia a native insect caused 40 million acres tree mortality in lodgepole pine

Photo by R Waring

Conclusions Northern Pine/Spruce/Aspen: Projected to do

poorly with climate change. Risk of forest decline due to collapse of boreal species. natural migraEon will not keep pace with climate change. May become stressed in current range (drought, insects).

Central Oak/Maple: Will expand north, but

Strategy: Encouraging more climate robust species

either local or from neighboring systems may be necessary to maintain healthy forests. But.

Conclusions the quesEon at this pivotal moment is: How much do we truly care about Minnesota's forests and ecosystems? Do we sit and watch as they decline right before our very eyes? Or do we as caring and responsible Minnesotans take acEon to cut our greenhouse gas emissions? Its =me to work together.