NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Transportation = Three Main Concerns

U.S. Energy Transportation Research Trends Alternate Fuels and Vehicle Electrification
1. Smog & Toxins
NAFA
Don Hillebrand, Ph.D. Director Center for Transportation Research

2. Greenhouse Gas Global Warming

3. Energy Security Diminishing Resources

25 April, 2010

Number of Vehicles Expanding

5.5 5.0 4.5

April 5, 2010 - Vehicles per 1000 People in Other Countries Compared to the U.S.

Billions of Vehicles

2001 2050

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Industrialized

Developing

World
3

February 8, 2010- Transportation Petroleum Gap

World Oil Production

2005: 84.58 mbpd 2006: 84.54 mbpd 2007: 84.40 mbpd 2008: 85.37 mbpd 2009 (nine months): 83.79 mbpd Does this look like we have hit a plateau?
5

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls

NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Exxon Mobil 2009 Energy Outlook

Are We Ever Going To Run Out Of Oil?

Out of Oil

No!
7
8

Hubberts Prediction Tells Us Important Date To Consider Peak Production!!

120 100

What Will Happen When The Worlds Bell Curve Turns Down?

Everything Changes
80

1972
60

40

20

0 1899
9

1919

1939

1959

1979

1999

2019

2039

2059
10

2079

Million barrels per Day

2099

Oil Price Shocks Are Important To Economy

Oil Prices are Rising Again

And Natural Gas appears to be heading down

11

12

NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Recovery Act Funding

1) $5 billion for the Weatherization Assistance Program 2) $3.1 billion for the State Energy Program 3) $2.73 billion for Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants 4) $2.0 billion for Advanced Battery Manufacturing Grants 5) $800 million for the Biomass Program 6) $454 million for Retrofit ramp-ups in energy efficiency 7) $400 million for the Geothermal Technologies Program 8) $400 million for Transportation Electrification 9) $346 million for Energy efficient building technologies 10) $300 million for Energy Efficient Appliance Rebates / ENERGY STAR 11) $300 million for the Alternative-Fueled-Vehicles Pilot Grant Program 12) $256 million for the Industrial Technologies Program 13) $115 million for the Solar Technologies Program 14) $110 million for the Vehicle Technologies Program 15) $104 million for National Laboratory Facilities 16) $100 million for Facility improvements at National Renewable Energy Lab 17) $93 million for Wind energy projects 18) $50 million for Information and Communications technology 19) $41.9 million for Fuel Cell Markets 20) $32 million for Modernizing existing U.S. hydropower infrastructure 21) $25 million for the Massachusetts Wind Technology Testing Center 22) $22 million for Community Renewable Energy Deployment 23) $18 million for Small Business Clean Energy Innovation Projects
13 14

EERE Recovery Act Funding

Vehicle Market Snapshot

240 million vehicles on the road Approximately 9M new cars & light trucks for 2009. Average is 15.7 M/yr 2002-2007 Hybrid vehicles at 3% of sales 13 Million cars and light trucks taken out of use per year

2009 Oil Use in the U.S. (19.4 MBPD)

Electric Power 1%

2007 Trans. CO2 Emissions 32% of Total U.S.

Industrial 24% Highway 59% Highway 82% Air 10% Water 3% Commercial 2% Residential 3%
Other Transportation 11%

Rail 3% Pipeline 2%

Efficiency reduces oil use and CO2 emissions

15

Analysis Informs Strategy

Well-to-Wheels Petroleum/GHG Reduction By Vehicle Type
Conventional Conventional ICE Hybrid Electric Conventional ICE Grid-Independent
E 8 5 , S w itc h a s Cellulosicg rEs 85 E 8 5 , S w itc h a s Cellulosicg rEs 85 HEV C G & R FG Gasoline

Mission, Goals, Targets & Budget

Battery Elec, Elec, Fuel Cell Improve Displace Light-Duty Fuel Economy Petroleum Plug-Ins & PlugReduce GHG Battery Emissions Electric Light-Duty HEV & Plug-Ins Light & PlugEngine & IC Engine and Transmission Transmission Advances Eff.
Heavy-Duty Light & Heavy-Duty

Mission: Develop clean highway transportation technologies to enable America to use less petroleum and lower greenhouse gas emissions
Key Administration Goals Relevant to Vehicle Technologies One million PHEVs on the highway by 2015 Reduce oil use in 10 years by an amount equivalent to todays imports from the Middle East and Venezuela (~3.5 mbpd). The transportation share of this goal is estimated as ~1.75 mbpd.

Plug-In Hybrid 40 PHEV 40 Grid-ConnectedMile

E 8 5 , S w itc h g r a s s

Hydrogen Fuel Cell FCV From Nat. Gas H 2, N G

H 2 , B io m a s s From Biomass

FY10 Request $333.3M

Technology Integration $31 Fuels $25 Materials $55 HybridElectric $164

Distribution of Funding
Consortia 10% Federal 2% University 3% Industry 34% National Labs 49%

Diesel

Diesel

C G & R FG

CD & LSD

CD & LSD

0.0% -10.0%

Gasoline

Cellulosic E 85

% Petroleum Reduction

20
-20.0% -30.0%

40
-40.0% -50.0%

Status
Electric drive cost at $19/kW power elec. and motor combined Li-ion R&D: PHEV - < $1000/kWh HEV cost at $625850 for 100,000 units/year; life at 10-15 yr

Target
Power Electronics: $12/kW; 15 yr life; 55 kW peak for 18 sec & 30 kW constant Battery: PHEV $300/kWh; 15 yr life; durability; 100 kWh/kg HEV discharge power of 25 kW for 18 sec; storage at 300Wh; cost of $500 per sys
Million Dollars
350 300 250

60
-70.0%

-60.0%

Petroleum (Conventional & Alternative Sources)

US Mix NE Mix CA Mix US Mix
NE Mix CA Mix

Lower cost of electric-drive enables consumer adoption

$58 Combustion
Vehicle Technologies Budget Trend 333 267 184
200 150 100 50 0

OEMs 2%

80
-90.0% -100.0%

-80.0%

Bio Fuels (E10, E85, Cellulosic Ethanol, Bio-diesel)

0 20

US Mix NE Mix CA Mix

Electricity (Conventional & Renewable Sources) Hydrogen (Conventional & Non-Carbon)

310

Key Focus Areas

Improved Eff. of engines (25-40%) Powertrain Electrification (2.5X current MPG) Lightweighting to Improve Efficiency (30%) Alternative Fuel Utilization (2B gallons/yr by 2020)

% GHG Reduction

Efficiency reduces oil use and CO2 emissions

Achieved engine efficiencies in lab testing of 43% for cars and 50% trucks Demonstrated 30% weight reduction of body and structure and lower cost carbon fiber Combustion Efficiency: passenger vehicle up to 45% and commercial vehicles 55% at todays cost

208

40 60 80

Lightweighting improves efficiency of all vehicles

Material weight reductions up to 50% in body in white and component parts

100

FY07 Approp

FY08 Approp

FY09 Approp

FY10 Request

FY11 Request

NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Diverse Portfolio
Advanced Vehicle Technology R&D
Hybrid Electric Systems
Advanced Batteries Power Electronics & Machines HEV & PHEV Systems Analysis and Testing Electrification/Smart Metering Aerodynamics, Rolling Resistance & Accessory Loads Technology Integration EPAct/EISA Rulemaking SuperTruck Clean Cities EcoCAR GATE

Hybrid-Electric Systems
Petroleum Displacement through Fuel Substitution and Improved Efficiency Administration Goal: 1 Million PHEVs by 2015 Types of Vehicles and Benefits Battery Cost Reduction HEV PHEV EV Materials Technology
Lightweight Structures Lightweight Materials Processing/Recycling/ Manufacturing Design Data Test Methods HTML Propulsion Materials
Toyota Prius
1 kWh battery Power Rating: 80kW System Cost: $3000

50 MPG

Cell materials & fabrication represents about 3/4 the cost for PHEV batteries For significant cost reduction, new materials with increased energy density are needed to reduce: - material needs - cell count, and - cell/pack hardware

Chevy Volt

16 kWh battery Power Rating: 170kW System Cost: est. $16,000 40 kWh battery Power Rating: 110kW System Cost: est.$36,000

100 MPGe

Nissan Leaf All Electric

Fuels Technology Advanced Combustion Engine R&D Bio-Based Fuels

Low Temperature Combustion R&D Emission Controls Light- & Heavy-Duty Engines Waste Heat Recovery Health Impacts Clean/Efficient Combustion Fuel Characteristics Intermediate Blends Advanced Lubricants

Status and Targets Targets 2009 Status

Status: $8000-$12,000 for a PHEV 40-mile range battery Status: Current cost of the electric traction system is $40/kW 2014 PHEV: Battery that has a 40-mile all-electric range and cost $3,400 2015 PEEM: Cost for electric traction system no greater than $12/kW peak by 2015

Battery Chemistry Comparison

Lithium Ion Chemistry
Life Power Energy Abuse tolerance Materials cost Nominal Voltage Nickelate Manganese Spinel Iron Phosphate Mn / Li Titanate Anode

3.6 3.8 3.3

2.5

Advanced Combustion Engine R&D

Increasing engine efficiency is one of the most cost-effective approaches to increasing fuel economy

Advanced & Alternative Fuels

R&D Focus
HCCI Range Limited by knock, high NOx, misfires

Benefits All Vehicle Classes

Cars
Light-Duty
Power Rating: 100-300hp

Advanced Combustion Regimes (HCCI / low temp combustion)

Demonstrate diesel-like efficiency (>45%) with less than 0.07 g/mi NOx emissions Complex combustion modeling for fuels -reduce reaction paths from thousands to less than 100 Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) engine models for HCCI - reduce processing time by 90% for use by industry

Trucks
Power Rating: 200-400hp

25-40% Improvement

Direct Displacement of Petroleum and Enabling Advanced Engine Technology Ethanol Blend Wall is approximately 11-15 billion gallons per year with E10 R&D Focus Technologies and Benefits i-blends:
Exhaust Port Temperature (C)

Heavy-Duty

Class 2b-8
Power Rating: 250-600hp

7B gallons displaced in 2008 Renewable and synthetic fuels, such as E85 and F-T Little consumer sacrifice and currently available Opportunity for greater optimization with some blends

LD Fuels

overcome blend wall, displace oil & meet RFS mandates

950

No E15 data for used Honda

Up to 50% Improvement

HD Fuels
250M gallons displaced in 2008 Biodiesel & 3rd Generation Renewable Fuels Easier deployment with larger fleets`

Emissions Control Technologies

Improve NOx catalyst conversion efficiency by 50%. Integrate four after-treatment components into one and reduce cost by 50%. Develop on-board diagnostics and sensors such as 50ms response NOx sensors

Targets
2015 Passenger Vehicle: Improve gasoline vehicle fuel economy by 25% and diesel vehicle fuel economy by 40%; compared to 2009 baseline 2015 Commercial Engine: Improve commercial engine efficiency by more than 20%; compared to 2009 baseline 2015 HEV & PHEV Improvements: Could provide >70 MPG HEV

Emissions results looks similar to E0. Catalyst temperature increase seen. Testing 79 vehicles (26 models) up to 120,000 miles - long-term durability effect on NMHC, CO, NOx, and toxics $38M project includes emissions, durability, driveability, and materials compatibility for vehicles, small engines, and infrastructure

Small Engine Exhaust Temperatures

900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 E0 E10 E15 E20

Honda Generator Honda Generator (used) Briggs and Stratton Generator Kohler Generator Stihl Line Trimmer Poulan Blower New Engine Trendline

Advanced Conventional Fuels

Fuel savings not direct displacement Enabling technology for advanced engine technologies Mostly compatible with existing infrastructure

E85 Optimized FFV Engines Increase use of E85 by decreasing the fuel economy penalty of ethanol
Eliminate half of energy content penalty by taking advantage of higher octane Utilizing turbo-charging, variable valve timing, direct injection, and compression ratio increase to achieve 15% increase in fuel efficiency with E85

Waste Heat Recovery Mechanical and Thermoelectric Devices

Increase practical ZT from 1.2 (current) to >2 for 20% conversion efficiency Increase durability of the thermoelectric systems for 15 year life Develop capability to process 12K tons/yr of thermoelectric material

Targets and Status Targets 2009 Status

2009: Intermediate blends testing in support of E15 waiver on-track to finish 2010. 2009: Approximately 10.5 billion gallons of renewables used 2011 Target: Have definitive answer on viability of E15 and B20 2022 Target: Attainment of RFS II mandate 36 B gallons/year including expanded E85 use

Biodiesel - Increase acceptance for legacy equipment.

Determining effect of B20 on emissions and after-treatment systems 12% / 48% reduction -in PM for B20/B100. Developing codes & standards for acid value, cloud point, water interfacial tension, etc. B20 recently approved for use in 2011 Ford light-duty trucks (46% U.S. diesel market share in 2009
NOx Percent c hange in emissions

PM

CO HC

Support improved mileage performance of internal combustion engines Secretary of Energy Steven Chu
-5-

Percent Biodiesel

Materials Development
Vehicle lightweighting is one of the most cost effective ways of reducing fuel consumption resulting in a 6-8% improvement in fuel economy with every 10% reduction in vehicle weight

Demonstrate a 50% improvement in freight efficiency by 2015 SuperTruck Heavy-duty trucks use 20% of the fuel consumed in the United States. Fuel economy improvements in these trucks directly and quickly reduces petroleum consumption Energy losses in Class 8 Trailer skirts trucks and opportunities for Gap reduction Tractor/trailer integration (major redesign) efficiency improvements
Highway 21% Urban 5% Chassis Body Highway 59% Urban 58%

Types of Materials and Benefits Magnesium

25-35% Lighter than a Aluminum Engine Block and 45-55% Lighter Compared to Cast Iron

Weight Reduction of 50% Possible

Through weight decompounding only 20-25% of primary weight reduction required Key Materials: Carbon fiber, Mg alloys, high strength steel Changes vehicle weight distribution
100% 16.5 80% 38.5 44 50.5 40% 22.5 17 20% 22.5 0% Baseline 75% 50% 17 10.5 10.5 22 28.5

Other

60%

Powertrain

Carbon Fiber
50-60% Lighter than a Standard Steel Body in White

Combustion improvements Turbocompounding Waste heat recovery

Targets and Status

2009 Status: Modeling demonstrated that body and chassis weight reduction goal of 40% could be achieved, but not at cost parity. 2010 Target: Cost-effectively reduce the weight of passenger vehicle body and chassis by 50% in high volume applications compared to 2002 vehicles.

Weight Reduction

Highway 2% Urban 7%

Electric accessories
Highway 16% Urban 9%
*

Highway 0%

Highway 2% Urban 5%

* Hypothetical Distribution

Weight Decompounding is an iterative solution: Lower overall weight reduces the engine size required, which in turn reduces weight, which in turn allows the vehicle structure to be reduced, etc.

New generation wide base single tires Urban 16% Hybridization Tire rubber compound Central tire inflation

Reduced drivetrain friction Automated manual transmissions

NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Outreach & Deployment

Providing a new generation of engineers with knowledge/skills in advanced vehicle technologies
Advanced Vehicle Competitions
Since 1987, DOE has sponsored more than two dozen university-level competitions, providing engineering students an opportunity to conduct hands-on research and Improving the speed and scale of market penetration for alternative fuel vehicles and infrastructure Focus Petroleum & Emissions Reduction Vehicles and Infrastructure Education and Outreach Economic Opportunities Unique Assets Local Strategy Advances Nat. Goal Coordinators Coalitions Technical Information/Resources
www.fueleconomy.gov http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/

Major Interactions with Office of Science

On-Going Relationships

Combustion Research Facility

at Sandia National Laboratories Livermore VT Program contributed $2.5M in FY 2009/ 2010 for expansion of modeling and simulation capability BES funds infrastructure, VT Program funds engines, test cells

2 Developing Relationships Energy Storage

BES recently restarted its activities in electrochemical storage Held joint workshop on basic research needs for electrical energy storage Information exchange through Energy Materials Coordinating Committee and the Chemical Working Group of the Interagency Advanced Power Group Jointly develop topics for SBIR solicitations
5,000 2,000 Advanced Flywheels

Analysis of particles formed from burning fuel is performed with a visible laser.

Graduate Automotive Training Education

Eight Centers of Excellence University of California-Davis, Virginia Tech, Pennsylvania State University, The Ohio State University, University of Michigan-Dearborn, University of Tennessee, University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, University of AlabamaBirmingham

Ultracapacitors Materials for Power Electronics Thermoelectrics

Heat Flow Qm h

Peak Power (W/kg)

development. EcoCAR has 17 teams pursuing a variety of advanced vehicle technologies

10,000

Areas of Potential Collaboration

Super Capacitors Conventional Flywheels Ni/Zn H2 ICE Lithium Ion Methanol Gasoline

1000 500

200 100 50

Heat Leakage Q. Heat Flow Qml

Electrical Power Pm 20

Pb-Acid

LiM/FeS2

Zn-Air H2 Fuel Cell

Thermo Electric Component

Specific Energy (Wh/kg)

Recovery Act: > $2.8 Billion

$1.5 Billion in funding to Facilities and Equipment accelerate the manufacturing and Upgrade up to $105 Million: User deployment of the next Centers, offer expert staff and unique generation of U.S. batteries equipment capabilities that no one industrial entity can afford to maintain. $500 Million in funding for Solicitation closed on 8/10/2009 electric-drive components manufacturing $400 Million in funding for transportation electrification Recovery Act will fund 48 new projects in advanced battery and electric drive components manufacturing and electric drive vehicle deployment in over 20 states: Directly resulting in the creation tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. battery and auto industries

National Laboratories
Pacific Northwest Idaho Natl Lab. Brookhaven Lawrence Berkeley Lawrence Livermore Natl Renewable Energy Lab. Sandia Los Alamos Oak Ridge Argonne

SuperTruck and Advanced Combustion R&D $104.4 Million Solicitation Heavy-duty trucks are emphasized because they rapidly adopt new technologies and account for 20% of the fuel consumed in the United States.
Solicitation closed 9/9/2009

Clean Cities: Petroleum Displacement through Alt Fuel Vehicles and Expanded Alternative Fuel Infrastructure
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Introduction to Argonne: One of the U.S. DOEs Largest Research Facilities

Vehicle manufacturers Light-duty engine industry Heavy-duty engine industry Motor fuels companies Trade associations

Basic science and applied engineering pushes the frontiers of transportation research.

Transportation Hutch APS x-rays

Materials Research Battery electrodes

Fuel cell catalysts Tribology

Basic and Applied Combustion Research

Argonne National Laboratory occupies 1,500 wooded acres in DuPage County, Ill, about 25 miles southwest of Chicago.

The first national laboratory, chartered in 1946 Operated by the University of Chicago for the U.S. Department of Energy

Argonne is ideally located to partner with industry in transportation research Eight divisions at Argonne are involved in the transportation research program
End of Life Vehicle Recycling

Advanced Powertrain Research Facility

Fuel Cell and Battery Testing

PSAT GREET

High Performance Computing

Testing and Validation

Modeling and Simulation

29

NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

PHEVs Assist the DOEs Efforts to Diversify Our Sources of Transportation Energy
Displaces a portion of petroleum with electric energy:

TTR Component Photos

Electricity propels the vehicle instead of petroleum-based gasoline Electricity from potentially renewable, clean and sustainable energy in the future
Much of gasoline usage is on short daily trips:

31-39% of annual miles are the first 20 miles of daily driving, while 63-74% are the "first 60 miles. So PHEVs with 20 mile range can use electricity to power about 35% of annual miles!
Benefits to plug-in hybrids:

Reduces petroleum or other liquid fuel usage Potential for reducing most criteria emissions in urban areas Vehicle-to-Grid services- have potential to improve electricity system cost structure

Rear view of cargo area showing JCS 10kWhr Li-ion battery mounted on transmission type rubber isolators aluminum deck plate covering components below
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UQM 75kW liquid cooled motor, coupled to modified transmission, near customized exhaust. Underside view TTR electronics/cooling

31

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Some Lessons Learned from Benchmarking PHEVs

Old vision of PHEVs (PHEV40, etc) now expanded with Blended Mode PHEVs Conversions validated in lab Good emissions (can pass SULEV) Up to 70% petroleum displacement Energy Management Blended mode can be better than EV, then sustaining Best theoretical blended distance matches trip in question Any use of HVAC can greatly reduce (or eliminate) electric range (or depleting MPG) Aggressive driving can also has an adverse effect on electric range and fuel economy

Load Management is Required to Realize Potential

Worst Case

Impact of PEVs on the 2020 Summer Load of Southern California Electric Power Grid*

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hours

Best Case Load Shifting

Peak power will increase substantially without management Optimal management requires smart grids and smart vehicles Local circuits (blocks and neighborhoods) must be protected from overload Consumer education and pricing policy will be key enablers
* Southern California Edison analysis, 2009

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Initial Load Forecast Ports Rail Trucks Forklifts PEVs

33

Smart Vehicle-Grid Interface

Vehicle-Grid Interface Issues

Customer Requirements/Behavior Battery Ownership and Usage Vehicle-Grid Communication Codes & Standards
Unique requirements International compatibility

Outreach and Education

Best practices Training Public information
Requires standard connectivity/communication protocols to minimize impact on automotive industry and utilities/grid operators (cost, complexity, reliability)

Enabling Technologies
Electric Vehicle Support Equipment, smart charge control, etc.

NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Recycling can drastically reduce lithium demand Could we be trading one cartel for another?

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Alternative Fuel Engines Present Opportunity for Advanced Technology

Potential to significantly reduce demand upon foreign oil Otto S.I. engines Alcohols (EtOH, MeOH) Diesel engines Biodiesel (fatty acid methyl esters) Increase demand for agricultural products Reduce emissions CO, HC, soot Several key obstacles remain: Cost $$$ Consistency of fuel properties Engine Durability Alternative fuel technologies need to retain current advantages while reducing or eliminating the obstacles

Argonnes Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Ethanol Directly Influenced the Current E-85 Campaign

Enhanced Ethanol Blends Study: Quick Look

Overview The objective of the study is to identify emissions, fuel economy and durability issues that may arise from introducing E15 or E20 into vehicles designed to run on a maximum of E10. The purpose of the project is to do a study of late model vehicles and determine if there is any obvious roadblocks to introducing E15 or E20 to the US Vehicle Fleet before an exhaustive investigation into the effects of E15 and E20 are undertaken.

Resource Management Must Be Addressed at Regional Level

Approach/Methodology Fuel Types E0, E10, E15 Splash Blend vs matching RVP blend for E15 E20 Splash Blend vs matching RVP blend for E20 Vehicles and Test Procedures Passenger Cars and Light-Duty Trucks (2003 MY and 2007 MY) LA 92 test schedule with regulated and non regulated emissions Catalyst temperatures monitored for durability Data will be input into EPA MOVE air quality model to determine impact on regional emissions inventory. Study Collaborators:, ANL, NREL, ORNL and US EPA and US DoE.

Significant regional variations in irrigation water consumption for corn

Results Fuel economy was ~5.5% worse for E20 and E15 than for E0. The blends Nox emissions effects varied from vehicle to vehicle , however, there were no large scale differences in NO x emissions. Exhaust temperatures varied 20 to 30 degrees C between fuels during some Wide Open Throttle tests. These temperature excursions raised concern for catalyst durability. However, no major temperature excursions during the 7% grade towing tests.

Water consumption factor for nonirrigated cellulosic biofuel is comparable to that of petroleum gasoline. Published in Journal of Environmental Management Results provided key references for GAOs biofuel report to Congress (Sept. 2009) and Congressional testimony by GAO on Energy and Water (July 2009)
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NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Issues with Hydrogen Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

NAS Study PHEV Market Penetration Rates Oil and CO2 Savings Battery and Vehicle Costs Timing and Potential Costs to Achieve Market Competitiveness for PHEVs Infrastructure Issues

43

44

Market penetration projections

PHEV Growths Rates

250

No. of vehicles (millions)

Maximum Practical (with optimistic technical development estimates): 4 million PHEVs in 2020 and 40 million in 2030 Probable (with probable technical development): 1.8 million PHEVs in 2020 and 13 million in 2030

200 Maximum practical penetration Probable penetration

150

100

50

0 2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

45

46

PHEV Fuel Savings Relative to HEVs

180,000 G asoline consumption (million gal/year) 160,000 Reference Case 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2010 PHEV-10 (Maximum) +Efficiency PHEV-40 (Maximum) + Efficiency Efficiency Case

PHEV Fuel Savings Relative to HEVs (continued)

PHEV fuel savings highly dependent on driving and charging patterns. Both PHEVs and HEVs will achieve higher fuel economy. Average PHEV-10 projected to use 81% of the fuel used by a comparable HEV (40 mpg), saving about 70 gallons in 15,000 miles. PHEV-40 uses 45%, saving about 200 gallons.

2020

2030

2040

2050

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NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Batteries are key question

Need acceptable cost for reasonable range, durability, and safety Looked at 10 and 40 mile midsize cars
- PHEV-10s and PHEV-40s

Current Cost Estimates Compared

49

Battery packs with 2 and 8 kWh useable or 4 and 16kWh nameplate energy
Start of life, not after degradation 200 Wh/mile 50% State of Charge range (increases to compensate for degradation)

$700-1500/kWh (McKinsey Report) $1000/kWh (Carnegie Mellon University) $800-1000/kWh (Pesaran et al) $500-1000/kWh (NRC: Americas Energy Future report) $875/kWh (probable) NRC PHEV Report $625/kWh (optimistic) NRC PHEV Report $560/kWh (DOE, adjusted to same basis) $500/kWh (ZEV report for California)
50

Future Cost Estimates Compared

$600/kWh (Anderman) $400-560/kWh in 2020 (NRC PHEV) $420/kWh in 2015 (McKinsey) $350/kWh (Nelson) $168-280/kWh by 2014 (DOE goals adj.)

Vehicle Costs
PHEV-40
Total Pack cost now $10,000 - $14,000 Total PHEV cost increment over current conventional (nonhybrid) car: $14,000 - $18,000 PHEV cost increment in 2030: $8,800 - $11,000

NRC estimates higher than most but not all Assumed packs must meet 10-15 year lifetime Dramatic cost reductions unlikely; Li-ion technology well developed and economies of scale limited
51

PHEV-10
Total Pack cost now $2500 - $3,300 Total PHEV cost increment over current conventional (nonhybrid) car $5,500 - $6,300 PHEV cost increment in 2030: $3,700 - $4,100

52

Electric Infrastructure
No major problems are likely to be encountered for several decades in supplying the power to charge PHEVs, as long as most vehicles are charged at night. May need smart meters with TOU billing and other incentives to charge off-peak. Charging time could be 12 hours for PHEV 40s at 110-V and 23 hours at 220-V. Thus home upgrade might be needed. If charged during peak, potential for significant issues with G/T/D in some regions of US.
a b c

Transition Cost continued

PHEV-40 Maximum Practical Breakeven yearb 2040 DOEe Maximum Practical 2024 High Oil Pricef Maximum Practical 2025 PHEV-10 Maximum Practical 2028 30/70 PHEV-40/PHEV-10 Mix Maximum Practical 2032 Probable 2034

Cumulative cash net flowc until the breakeven year Cumulative vehicle retail price differenced until the breakeven year Number of PHEVs at breakeven year (millions)

$408 billion

$24 billion

$41 billion

$33 billion

$94 billion

$47 billion $179 billion 20

$1,639 billion

$82

$174

$133

$363 billion

132

10

13

24

48

Does not include infrastructure costs for home rewiring, distribution system upgrades, and public charging stations which might average over $1000 per vehicle. Year when annual buydown subsidies equals fuel cost savings for fleet. Subsidies for new PHEVs minus fleet fuel savings. Cost of PHEVs minus the cost of Reference Case cars. e Technology progress meets DOE goal ($300/kWh) for the PHEV-40 in 2020. f Oil at twice base case, or $160/bbl in 2030, results for the PHEV-40.
d

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NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Snapshot of Electric Vehicles

IHS Global Insight Projections

2030 Market Projections for PHEVs and EVs January 2010 9.9% EVs
8.6% PHEVs Major Challenges: consumer preference for long range, versatile vehicles, cost and uncertainty about battery life, perceptions of safety hazard, adequacy of the power grid

U.S. Light vehicle sales forecast, March 2010

11.8 in 2010, followed by 14.0, 15.8, and 17.0 in 2013

55

http://press.ihs.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=4187

56

EIA has lowered their projected 2030 HEV sales over the last three Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO)
AEO Projected HEV Sales in 2030
AEO Projected HEV Sales in 2030
9 000.0 8 000.0 AEO2009 Refere nce Case AEO2009 Updated Reference Cas e AEO2010 Refere nce Case

Projections for 2020 Market Shares indicate that Electric Vehicle share will Grow
Roland Berger: Powertrain 2020

U.S. HEV PHEV EV

13% 9% 4%

Europe
7% 15% 5%

Japan
9% 11% 4%

China
6% 9% 6%

Thousands of New Sales

7 000.0 6 000.0 5 000.0 4 000.0 3 000.0 2 000.0 1 000.0 0.0

Hybrid

PHEV10

PHEV40

Micro

Total Hybrid

Type of HEV

57

http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Li-Ion_batteries_20100222.pdf

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The Electric Vehicle?

Its the battery, Stupid!
6kW Charger Tank Capacity 16kWh = Gallon Gasoline Range = 90 miles Charge Time 8 hours Gas Pump = 10MW Recharge Rate 15 Gallons Range > 350 miles Refuel Time = 3 min (Gasoline is a good way to store energy!)
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Range Anxiety can be addressed through Several Approaches

Battery Swaps Fast Charging Really Big Batteries Research on better Batteries
In Perspective:
A major electric vehicle company produced 700 vehicles last year. In 1985 - Sterling Height Assembly Plant made 700 vehicles in half a day.
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NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Battery Swaps Back of the Envelope

Need standardized or interchangeable batteries Need sufficient vehicles to justify the infrastructure Need a cost model that can work
Current EV Battery Pack is listed as costing $12,000 for replacement (Which we all believe to be wildly optimistic) $12000 x 5% annual return on investment = $600 3 year battery life means amortizing cost is $4000 Annual Return for each pack must surpass $4600 per year For battery swapping profit, must drive 1300 miles per day per battery pack!

Fast Charging Back of the Envelope

To make the economics work will require Subsidies
Need to handle Thermal Loads and power distribution Massive investment in infrastructure required similar to hydrogen Fast Charging will not be the first resort, because there will be other options, so the gasoline forecourt model will not hold. Cost of level three charger is $15K $60K Value of electricity is about $5 per car EDF estimate: $15,000 charger is estimated to return a profit of $60 per year Scottish power estimates that a break even cost for electricity is 60 cents/ kW-h (making fast charge electric vehicles more expensive per mile than gasoline.)
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Conclusion: The EV Battery is twenty times too expensive for the swap model.

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Lithium-Air Batteries enable Electric Vehicles

But the Batteries are not ready
Ragone Plot of Various Electrochemical Energy-Storage Devices

Public Priorities for 2010

Pew Research Center
http://people-press.org/report/584/policypriorities-2010

1000

Specific Energy (Wh/kg)

6 4 2

IC Engine

100 h
Li-ion

100
6 4 2

Li-Air, Fuel Cells Li-Ion

Ni-MH

Range

Na/NiCl2
Lead-Acid

EV goal (EoL) PHEV-40 (EoL) PHEV-10 (EoL)

10 h 10 h

Ni-MH HEV goal

Capacitors

Lead-Acid

10
6 4 2

Capacitors
1h 1h 0.1 0.1 h h 36 s 36 s 3.6 s

1 100

101

10 2

10 3

10 4

Specific Power (W/kg)

Acceleration
Source: Amended from Product data sheets

This survey was released on January 25, 2010 and it shows energy to be the 10th most important national priority (with 49% of the respondents listing it as a high priority), whereas global warming was the 20th most important (with a 28% rating). Even the environment was ranked behind energy at 15th place with a 44% score.

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Priority for Global Warming

CBS News and NYT Poll, December 2009

Gallup Survey: March 11, 2010

[The percent of Germans who are worried about Global Warming dropped from 62% in 2006 to 42% in 2010.]

Should Global Warming be a priority for government leaders?

High Priority: 52% in April 2007/ 37% now Serious problem but not high priority: 37% in April 2007/ 33% now Not a serious problem: 9% in April 2007/ 27% now Do not know: 2% in April 2007/ 3% now
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Dec09aglobalwarming.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
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NAFA I&E Presentation Fuel Efficient Technology

Gallup Survey: March 11, 2010

The Economy is more important than the Environment now

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The number of vehicles per household has increased in every survey since 1969. Over that period, the number of vehicles per licensed driver increased 47%
Demographic Statistics from the 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990, 1995 NPTS and 2001, 2009 NHTS Percent change 19692009 -16% 66% 4% 13% 59% 47% 14%

Conclusions
Project Independence projections were way off. U.S. employs about the same level of light vehicle technology as elsewhere in the world (with the exception of diesels) Some projections are very bullish about EV market penetration. Significant decline in the percent of people who think global warming is serious.
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Persons per household Vehicles per household Workers per household Licensed drivers per household Vehicles per worker Vehicles per licensed driver Average vehicle trip length (miles)

1969 3.16 1.16 1.21 1.65 0.96 0.70 8.89

1977 2.83 1.59 1.23 1.69 1.29 0.94 8.34

1983 2.69 1.68 1.21 1.72 1.39 0.98 7.90

1990 2.56 1.77 1.27 1.75 1.40 1.01 8.98

1995 2.63 1.78 1.33 1.78 1.34 1.00 9.06

2001 2.58 1.89 1.35 1.77 1.39 1.06 9.87

2009 2.66 1.92 1.26 1.87 1.52 1.03 10.14

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey: Summary of Travel Trends, FHWA-PL-92-027, Washington, DC, March 1992, Table 2. Data for 1995 , 2001 and 2009 were generated from the Internet site nhts.ornl.gov. (Additional resources: www.fhwa.dot.gov)
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Note: Average vehicle trip length for 1990 and 1995 is calculated using only those records with trip mileage information present. The 1969 survey does not include pickups and other light trucks as household vehicles.

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The US has Adequate Energy Supplies It Lacks Sufficient Petroleum

Solar Energy Wind Power Biomass Coal
Nuclear Tar Sands Shale Oil

The End Game: 1000 Year Vision The End Game: 1000 Year Vision
Water Coal

or Wind Energy

or Solar Energy

Nuclear Energy

Synthetic Fuels SI Engines

Diesel Engines

Electricity

Hydrogen Vehicles Fuel Cells

The Challenge is finding ways to use those Energy Supplies for Mobility
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