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47

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Wdeoh 41 Vdpsoh Ghvfulswlrq

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Sdqho D= W|shv ri Erqgv

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Gdlo| Yroxph/ eoq Oluh Phdq Vwg1 Ghy1 45/:;3 6/<73 6/:43 6/933 <6 437

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Lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu Vshfldolvwv Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv Wrwdo Wrwdo :5:/:7: 998/9<3 4/6<6/76: Vshfldolvwv 595/9;7 575/<43 838/8<7

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Lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu

Vshfldolvwv Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv Rug1 Ghdohuv Vshfldolvwv Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv Rug1 Ghdohuv

Ruljlqdwlqj ghdohu

98;1;8 5;618: 56<138 599184 4881;3 437136 439186 ;61:8

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Wudqvdfwlrq vl}h +Eoq Oluh, 8 43 48 53

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Sdqho D= Ohduqlqj frhflhqw  & > Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Fodvvlfdwlrq ri Ghdohuv Ryhudoo Lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu
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w0vwdwlvwlfv 045619 0<714 09516 0;145 0;616 09:18 04316

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</944 45/994 7/35: 46/395 47/3<4 7/4;5

0;1<4 045156 04;198 046188 04515: 054175

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73

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49/6:;

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2 8|

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sw 3166
3166 3159 31:8 3163 31<6

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4/533

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2 8|

sw 3155
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74

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75

Lqwhuphgldwlqj Pdunhw Pdnhu

Ryhudoo +Q@57/7:;,

Sdqho D= Qrq0dxfwlrq shulrgv

IUD A31< 318 31< ?318 A31< 318 31< ?318


3193 +75159, 3166 +5;15<, 3184 +5<1<:, 08197 +0815<, 8163 +81<<, 043199 +09167, 3196 +68159, 3165 +551<<, 3187 +5818, 08144 +0714<, 4183 +4183, 061;6 +0514:, 3193 +5815;, 3167 +4<17;, 3185 +531;4, 09165 +0615:, :14< +71;4, 0481;: +0813:,

Vshfldolvwv +Q@49/6:;,

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Pdunhw Pdnhu Q@;/433

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:5157 +;154, 0451<9 +041<<, 8916 +81:6, 0 0 0 0 0 0 941<8 +8183, 0;177 +031<<, 5819 +5137, 0 0 0 0 0 0 9518 +71<4, 074156 +0718;, :3137 +817;, 0 0 0 0 0 0

LF

0 0 0 0 0 0 917: +81<9, 0813< +08198, 4417: +91:3, 0 0 0 0 0 0 81<5 +71:;, 04155 +0414<, 717; +5184, 0 0 0 0 0 0 :14: +6196, 0:138 +07196, 491;8 +815:,

L' dD

Yduldeoh

04318 +0619<, <175 +7193, 061;< +0418;, 313: +3136, ;1:6 +8165, 31<9 3173 045196 +07157, <134 +619;, 09148 +04196, 06154 +0415;, ;1<< +7163, 061:9 +0413<, 05184 +0318;, 45139 +61:5, 31:;: +3154, 9155 +41;3, 91:6 +5173, :157 +41:4,

2 8|

g& 0<196 +045143, 6177 +:169, 07184 +08197, 0;15< +04616, 519: +817<, 05184 051<4 043155 +047145, 51<5 +8135, 08145 +08148, 0<16: +045184, 51:< +7199, 07168 +07149, 0;15 +0:175, 8158 +918;, 0814: +07135, 091:; +09139, 7156 +8147, 06167 +0514;,

T&8| 01335;3 +0619<, 0133347 +03158, 013364 +06176, 01337< +0813:, 13335 +3164, 013374 06196 013363 +0616<, 013335 +03159, 013364 +06147, 013374 +0713<, 13339 +313<, 01336: +06154, 013367 +05146, 013337 +0316:, 013368 +05144, 01337; +0618:, 1333: +3194, 013386 +05144,

sw 31<<
3156 3145 3175 31<< 3143 314< 315: 31;4 31:4 315: 3173 31<< 316: 3155 31<: 31;; 3194

76

Lqwhuphgldwlqj Pdunhw Pdnhu

Ryhudoo +Q@6/:3<,

Sdqho E= Dxfwlrq shulrgv

IUD A31< 318 31< ?318 A31< 318 31< ?318


319: +53167, 315; +43134, 3185 +4616;, 081:: +051<:, :13; +61;9, 04518< +06149, 319; +4:134, 3165 +<174, 3185 +<188, 0719: +05143, 8179 +51;6, 0517< +03198, 31:4 +9139, 315; +914;, 3174 +:14:, 081;; +0419<, 7173 +4163, 0471;6 +0516:,

Vshfldolvwv +Q@4/533,

A31< 318 31< ?318 A31< 318 31< ?318

Pdunhw Pdnhu Q@5/83<

A31< 318 31< ?318 A31< 318 31< ?318

8<186 +51<6, 418; +3143, ;91; +6143, 0 0 0 0 0 0 771;4 +41<6, 04416: +0318:, :31;5 +5138, 0 0 0 0 0 0 4;146 +31:5, 065146 +04157, 45<1;4 +7199, 0 0 0 0 0 0

LF

0 0 0 0 0 0 9196 +6169, 091<4 +061:4, 46179 +6164, 0 0 0 0 0 0 8135 +5178, 08157 +0519:, 614: +5134, 0 0 0 0 0 0 91:7 +41<4, 07158 +04156, 481:9 +517:,

L' dD

Yduldeoh

08144 +03197, :19; +4167, 041:4 +03155, 41<; +315<, 431:: +5135, 03155 +03136, 4196 +314<, ;1<8 +4166, 4196 +314<, 04134 +03146, ;167 +4164, ;173 +4147, ;137 +3185, 46168 +4165, 059143 +0419:, 9185 +3178, <157 +4144, 0451< +03183,

2 8|

g& 0;1<7 +09194, 716; +61:<, 0:163 +07167, 0:1;3 +0815;, 6149 +5189, 0716< +041<9, 08136 +08147, 6165 +5173, 0;175 +07158, 0<13; +08174, 5184 +41:8, 0;155 +061;8, 0:18 +0518:, :194 +6187, 09153 +05133, 07188 +04178, 917; +51<:, 0<166 +03155,

T&8| 0133<6 +061:7, 13345 +3189, 013394 +05164, 013453 +07194, 13344 +3193, 013436 +06173, 013363 +06147, 01333: +03166, 0133:: +05164, 013444 +06174, 013336 +03145, 013449 +06193, 013453 +06169, 13357 +31;9, 013349 +03169, 013443 +06135, 13365 +414;, 0133;7 +04184,

sw 3175
3164 3165 3177 314; 3147 31;4 317; 3157 3156 3164 3153 314: 3148 318< 3197 3179 3165

77

Wdeoh 81 Klglqj yv1 h{shulphqwdwlrq= Wudqvdfwlrqv0edvhg vshflfdwlrq1

Zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri=

oq+v&| ,

oq+v& f| , @  f . # oq+v|ect , .  F HY&| .  j' 2 . & . &| = 8|

zkhuh/ v| > l @ 4> ===> 8 lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog vhohfw l0wk hqgrjhqrxv dowhuqdwlyh1 v| lv ghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwk wkh pdunhw pdnhuv ehorqjlqj wr wkh l0wk jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh/ dqg wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri wudghv +erwk hqgrjhqrxv dqg h{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk lq wkh vdph lqwhuydo1 vf| lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog vhohfw h{rjhqrxv dowhuqdwlyh= Lw lv ghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh l0wk pdunhw pdnhu uhfhlyhv iurp rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri wudghv +erwk S hqgrjhqrxv dqg h{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo1 v|ect @ v| @ D' v|  lv wkh suredelolw| ri wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh frqglwlrqdo rq kdylqj ghflghg wr jr hqgrjhqrxv1 Wkdw lv/ lw lv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv ehorqjlqj wr wkh l0wk fkrlfh jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri rughuv wkdw/ gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo/ wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv1 # uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyhv frqglwlrqdo rq kdylqj fkrvhq wr jr hqgrjhqrxv1 HY&| lv wkh dyhudjh glhuhqfh lq h{shfwhg ydoxh ehwzhhq rxwjrlqj hqgrjhqrxv wudgh dqg lqfrplqj wudgh ryhu wkh 43 plqxwh lqwhuydo iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudqvdfwlrq/ dqg ' lv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri sulfhv ri wkh erqg lq wkh 43 plqxwhv diwhu wkh wudqvdfwlrq1 Hdfk pdunhw pdnhu fdq fkrrvh wr sodfh wkh rughu zlwk _vpduw pdunhw0wlphuv%/ _pdunhw wlphuv%/ _dyhudjhv%/ _txdvl0frqwuduldqv% dqg _frqwuduldqv%1 Wkh vpduw pdunhw wlphuv duh wkh ghdohuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv frqghqw +zlwk frqghqfh lq h{fhvv ri <3(, duh deoh wr vxffhvvixoo| wlph wkh pdunhw/ l1h1/ wkh| ex| ehiruh dq lqfuhdvh lq sulfhv dqg vhoo ehiruh d uhgxfwlrq lq sulfhv1 Wkh pdunhw wlphuv duh wkh rqhv wkh pdunhw pdnhu eholhyhv wr eh deoh wr vxffhvvixoo| wlph wkh pdunhw zlwk frqghqfh ehwzhhq 83 dqg <3(1 Wkh dyhudjhv duh wkh rqhv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu kdv orz nqrzohgjh derxw +frqghqfh ohyho orzhu wkdq 83(,1 Wkh frqwuduldqv duh wkh pdunhw pdnhuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lv yhu| frqghqw +<3( frqghqfh ohyho, iroorz frqwuduldq vwudwhjlhv +vhoo ehiruh lqfuhdvh lq sulfhv dqg ex| ehiruh d uhgxfwlrq lq sulfhv,1 Ilqdoo| wkh txdvl0frqwuduldqv duh wkh pdunhw pdnhuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu eholhyhv wr iroorz frqwuduldq vwudwhjlhv zlwk d frqghqfh ehwzhhq 83( dqg <3(1 Wkh prgho lv hvwlpdwhg iru hdfk pdunhw pdnhu vhsdudwho| rq wkh edvlv ri wudqvdfwlrq wlph1 Wkhq wkh pdunhw pdnhuv duh fodvvlhg lqwr wkuhh jurxsv edvhg rq wkh qdwxuh ri wkhlu uhvsrqvh wr lqiruphg wudgh +frhflhqw  F ,1 Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq djjuhjdwhg ryhu wkrvh wkuhh jurxsv duh uhsruwhg lq Sdqho D1 Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh vlplodu hvwlpdwlrq djjuhjdwhg ryhu wkh rfldo fodvvlfdwlrq ri ghdohuv duh uhsruwhg lq Sdqho E1 Zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv ri hvwlpdwlrq eurnhq grzq e| suhflvlrq ri lqfrplqj vljqdo1 Jurxsv L wr Y fruuhvsrqg wr wkh wudqvdfwlrqv lqlwldwhg e| _vpduw pdunhw wlphuv/% _pdunhw wlphuv/% _dyhudjhv/% _txdvl0frqwuduldqv% dqg _frqwuduldqv%/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Lq Sdqho F wkh vshflfdwlrq grhv qrw frqwdlq 2 / exw wkh hvwlpdwlrqv duh shuiruphg vhsdudwho| iru shulrgv ri %kljk% dqg %orz% yrodwlolw|  2 1 ' ' %Kljk% yrodwlolw| shulrgv duh ghqhg dv wkh shulrgv zkhq wkh gdlo| yrodwlolw| h{fhhgv gdlo| yrodwlo0 lw| ryhu wkh odvw 43 wudglqj gd|v1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq lv grqh xvlqj d yduldqfh0fryduldqfh frqvlvwhqw jhqhudol}hg phwkrg ri prphqwv hvwlpdwru1 Odjv ri h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv/ ohduqlqj frhflhqw ri lqfrplqj wudgh  dqg  ri wkh suhfhhglqj wudqvdfwlrq duh hpsor|hg dv lqvwuxphqwv1 w0vwdwlvwlfv ri hvwlpdwhv duh uhsruwhg lq eudfnhwv1 Wkh s0ydoxh ri Kdqvhq*v ryhulghqwlfdwlrq fulwhulrq +sw , lv uhsruwhg iru hdfk uhjuhvvlrq1

78

Wdeoh 8/ frqwlqxhg1

sw Q

Sdqho D= Wudglqj0edvhg Fodvvlfdwlrq/ Vhsdudwlrq Ryhu Suhflvlrq ri Vljqdo L LL LLL LY Y Vnhswlf f 03174 +04<189, 0316: +05715;, 03174 +04<173, 03164 +0;1<8, 03165 +071:8,  F 0;7177 +08169, 0<9149 +07195, 8715; +4194, ;:135 +7148, 69167 +41;4,  j' 065136 +041<:, 0<:143 +0;1<8, 069183 +05199, 0716: +031<9, 0436199 +06178, # 3165 +49185, 3168 +54185, 316; +5:134, 3177 +49138, 316< +:19:, Vohhs| 0315; f  F 6614:  j' 04:1<: # 317:
3157 </:54 31:< 45/46< 317: 4</744 31;< 6/649 3143 :88

sw Q

sw Q

Vqhdn| 0316: f  F 99144  j' 57158 # 3185

+0671<:, +81;<, +07179, +93197, 315: 86/:6< +05719;, +:133, +715<, +6:188, 3147 54/:5;

0315: 641:6 043166 3179

+077157, +7174, +05136, +9:1<4, 31<; ;6/<98

03157 471:6 045139 3178

+06<167, +4139, +0616;, +;4168, 31<< 499/;74 +0661<4, +031;:, +5154, +971<8, 3143 ;9/896

0315< +05714, 0461:< +04199, 0441<< +05179, 3176 +741;8, 3185 64/947 0317< +058145, 045;177 +0;1:9, 65196 +6197, 318< +6<1:, 318< 4</<4<

03164 +04617<, 043186 +0414;, 045195 +04166, 316< +5319<, 316< ;/636 03189 +04:1:8, 0<<17< +0;15:, 8184 +317<, 3193 +5:177, 315: 9/467

03169 <3143 4717; 3186

+0641<;, +91<8, +5189, +791;5, 314; 6;/:;5

03164 04<148 43159 3187

sw Q

Sdqho E= Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Fodvvlfdwlrq/ Vhsdudwlrq Ryhu Suhflvlrq ri Vljqdo L LL LLL LY Y Vshfldolvw 03167 +073177, 03167 +083173, 03165 +076148, 03175 +063146, 03184 +053133, f  F 571:3 +61:7, 771:< +71;8, 441<7 +3198, 0:7169 +0:165, 0;4158 +0;135,  j' 044155 +05184, 0;1<; +05179, 315< +3145, 715< +4184, 49155 +4189, # 317: +89146, 317; +951:9, 317< +:<183, 3185 +771<:, 3184 +5:1:7, Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhu f 03159 +055193, 03159  F 5<174 +7167, 5819<  j' 0581<; +071<6, 0461<5 # 3179 +7413<, 317:
3177 5;/6:3 317: 89/;4; 3157 ;7/448 31<< 48</7:8 3197 66/79: 313< </5<:

sw Q

+06316:, +6146, +041:4, +86144, 31<9 83/::4

03155 46157 0461<6 3177

+0651<;, +31<:, +06177, +99179, 314; 446/673

0315; 04;1<< 045148 3179

+04<145, +041<8, +05145, +69144, 31;9 54/6;5

0315; 05144 05<183 3179

+043134, +03153, +05147, +53187, 3153 8/;<8

79

Wdeoh 8/ frqwlqxhg1 Sdqho F= Wudglqj0edvhg Fodvvlfdwlrq/ Vhsdudwlrq Ryhu Suhflvlrq ri Vljqdo dqg Kljk2Orz Yrodwlolw| Shulrgv L LL LLL LY Y 2 Orz Kljk Orz Kljk Orz Kljk Orz Kljk Orz Kljk ' Vnhswlf 03174 03178 03178 03179 03174 0317< 03177 03178 03165 0316: f +071:8, +0813;, +0551<5, +05519;, +064163, +065195, +053134, +0571:7, +046149, +0461:;,  F 0<;178 0:;155 046;154 09914; 9:15; 6:176 66167 6;15; ;81:8 79148 +6154, +5156, +0913<, +07169, +08158, +051:8, +4167, +31<:, +41<6, +418<, # 3183 3179 3184 3184 3188 3186 3187 318: 3183 3184 +4315:, +6716:, +63143, +6:19;, +6;193, +7;196, +7:198, +5517<, +581:4, +4414:,
7/<55 3163 7/:<< 3149 9/454 3148 9/34; 3139 </;54 3188 </8<3 31:3 4/943 31;9 4/:39 314< 73; 31;: 67: 3148

Q sw

Vohhs| 03173 f  F # sw
Q

+06617:, 58195 +6155, 316; +64136, 59/7:; 315;

03176 +06814<, 4<189 +516:, 316< +65155, 5:/594 3156 03193 +0531::, 445175 +9157, 3183 +541;8, 44/63: 313;

0316< +07:16;, <185 +31;9, 316< +6:1:;, 74/438 31;6 0318: +05;1;7, 46:196 +9179, 317< +59143, 4</373 314;

03174 +08313:, 6175 +3167, 3169 +69148, 75/;93 31;7 03188 +05<1:8, 479166 +81;4, 3185 +5;167, 4</:55 3166

0316; +076143, 31:8 +3137, 316; +7:176, ;7/956 31<< 0317< +06519;, 04;1<3 +03187, 317< +6;199, 75/5<9 319;

03173 +0771;3, 5<187 +4183, 3167 +7616:, ;5/54; 31<3 03183 +06718<, 085153 +04187, 3186 +7415;, 77/59: 3167

03174 +05814:, :19< +3193, 3167 +5715<, 48/:8< 31<; 0319: +05413;, 0485168 +08187, 3185 +5617:, </:84 318<

03175 +05817:, 8188 +3177, 316: +571;3, 48/;88 31:8 0319< +0561;;, 04;71;: +0:15<, 3193 +5:17<, 43/49; 313:

0317< +048136, 05:15; +05148, 316< +461<5, 6/<9< 31;7 03199 +04714:, 0;4153 +071;3, 3197 +53184, 5/;;< 31:8

0317< +047148, 04617: +04144, 315; +431:<, 7/667 3155 031:3 +0471;7, 0;:154 +071<6, 3186 +4;166, 6/578 31<:

Vqhdn| f 03193  F # sw
Q

+054135, 8;1;5 +6178, 3178 +4<145, 43/754 31<9

7:

Wdeoh 9= Vwdwlvwlfdo ghvfulswlrq ri vqhdnlhv/ vohhslhv dqg vnhswlfv

Zh uhsruw wkh vxppdu| vwdwlvwlfv iru wkh wudglqj0edvhg fodvvlfdwlrq ri wkh ghdohuv1 Wkh iudfwlrq ri wkh wudgh lqwhuphgldwhg e| d fodvv ri ghdohu lv fdofxodwhg dv wkh shufhqwdjh ri wudqvdfwlrqv lqwhuphgldwhg e| ghdohuv wkdw ehorqj wr d sduwlfxodu jurxs1 Zh uhsruw wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri gdlo| wudgh shu ghdohu1 Wkh| duh h{suhvvhg dw wkh idfh ydoxh ri wkh erqg wudghg1 Udqnlqj lv rewdlqhg dv iroorzv= uvw ghdohuv duh vruwhg e| yroxph lqwhuphgldwhg1 Wkhq hdfk ghdohu lv udqnhg lq ghvfhqglqj rughu1 Wkh dyhudjh udqnlqj lv fdofxodwhg iru hdfk jurxs1 Yroxph0zhljkwhg udqnlqj lv fdofxodwhg e| xvlqj yroxph dv zhljkw1 S Y u U @ S = Y Wzr udqnlqjv duh uhsruwhg1 Wkh uvw lv edvhg rq wkh wrwdo wudglqj yroxph wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lqwhuphgldwh/ zkloh wkh vhfrqg lv edvhg rqo| rq wkh yroxph wkh| jhqhudwh +hqgrjhqrxv wudgh,1

Qxpehu ri ghdohuv lq fdwhjru| Vkduh ri ryhudoo h{rjhqrxv wudglqj +qxpehu ri wudqvdfwlrqv, Gdlo| H{rjhqrxv Wudgh/ Phdq +Eoq Oluh, Gdlo| H{rjhqrxv Wudgh/ Vwg1 Ghy1 +Eoq Oluh, Dyhudjh udqnlqj ryhu h{rjhqrxv wudgh+rxw ri 89, Dyhudjh yroxph0zhljkwhg udqnlqj ryhu h{rjhqrxv wudgh +rxw ri 89, Gdlo| Hqgrjhqrxv Wudgh/Phdq +Eoq Oluh, Gdlo| Hqgrjhqrxv Wudgh/ Vwg1 Ghy1 +Eoq Oluh, Dyhudjh udqnlqj ryhu hqgrjhqrxv wudgh +rxw ri 695, Dyhudjh yroxph0zhljkwhg udqnlqj ryhu hqgrjhqrxv wudgh +rxw ri 695, Vkduh ri ryhudoo hqgrjhqrxv wudglqj +qxpehu ri wudqvdfwlrqv, Vkduh ri lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh lq wrwdo hqgrjhqrxv wudgh

Vohhs|

74 9415( 69418 63713 64 55 <914 56:19 5: 53 :315( 4918(

Vqhdn|

43 5713( 7<316 6<916 44 46 6;<13 65819 54 43 5415( 5715(

Vnhswlf

8 471;( 93<1< 7:;15 47 43 5<<18 5<813 55 4< ;19( 6713(

7;