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BPSolarSidhu - 4 13 2010
BPSolarSidhu - 4 13 2010
Agenda
Global PV Market Nomenclature PV Technologies Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Value Chain Solar Cell Physics (no equations!) Why is solar cell efficiency only ~15%? Reaching Grid Parity using BP Solars Crystalline Silicon PV Technology The Solar America Initiative Silicon Solar Technology Roadmap Conclusion: Future of PV
PV Experience Curve
PV module prices have followed an experience curve with a slope of ~ 80% 20% decrease in price with every doubling of cumulative production
(Navigant Consulting)
Europe has been the largest consumer of PV in recent years (> 50% of all installations). China and Taiwan have become the largest producers.
PV Shipments in 2009
European countries accounted for 5.60 GW, or 77% of world demand Germany, Italy and Czech Republic accounted for 4.07 GW United States grew 36% to 485 MW
World solar PV market installations reached a record high of 7.3 GW in 2009 growth of 20% over 2008 $43 billion in global revenues in 2009, up 8% on the prior year World solar cell production 9.34 GW in 2009, up from 6.85 GW in 2008 Crystalline Si module price average for 2009 crashed 38% from previous year
Grid Parity
GTM Research
(W/m)
Including: initial investment operations and maint. cost of fuel cost of capital
800
600
400
200
0 0
66 AM
Noon 12
6 18 PM
24
Insolation
kWh/kWp
PV Facts Using todays PV Technology, an array field that is 300 miles on each side could produce the entire electrical energy used by the United States in a year.
PV Facts
Over its lifetime, a typical PV module, in a sunny climate, will produce over twenty times the electricity initially used to manufacture it.
Technology Overview: Nomenclature A solar PV cell is the smallest semiconductor device that can convert sunlight into electrical energy A module is an assembly of cells in series or parallel to augment voltage and/or current A panel is an assembly of modules on a structure An Array is an assembly of panels at a site.
Mono Cell
There has been steady progress in the improvement of conversion efficiencies for a number of PV technologies over the last few decades.
a-Si/c-Si
United Solar Kaneka Fuji Electric Sharp Mitsubisihi Schott Solar SunTech EPV PowerFilm AMAT licensees Orelikon licenses
CIGS
Nanosolar Avancis Solar Frontier Wurth Solar Global Solar Honda Soltec
CdTe
First Solar Antec Solar Abound Solar PrimeStar Solar Calyxo
There are currently more than 300 companies developing or producing solar cells. With prices continuing to decrease, and more companies entering the market, many small companies and start-ups are likely to fail.
Source: pvsociety
CASTING
SIZING
% of Total 0.00% 0.27% 2.18%
WAFERING
% of Total 0.00% 2.03% 13.23%
CLEANING
% of Total 0.00% 0.34% 2.23%
DIFFUSION
% of Total 0.00% 0.85% 2.53%
FINISH TEST
LAMINATION
INTERCONNECT
METALLIZATION
ANTIREFLECTIVE COATING
Most companies are manufacturing PV modules based on screenprinting contacts on multicrystalline silicon wafers
Silicon Feedstock
Drawbacks of CZ Solar Cylindrical ingot (module packing) Smaller throughput rate CZ: 5.3 kg/h at 2mm/min Cast: 12.9 kg/h at 0.3mm/min High oxygen content -> LID Higher energy use Feedstock limitations Importance of skilled operators Mono-crystalline wafer
Silicon Feedstock
Drawbacks:
Crystal defects Iron from crucible Inclusions from coating, furnace Not compatible with pyramid texturing
Heater Insulation
Silicon Bricks
Casting Station cross-section Multicrystalline Solar Cell
Multicrystalline Wafer
Multicrystalline Module
The cell efficiencies for screen-printed multicrystalline silicon cells are typically in the range of 14 17%.
BP Solar now uses a polyester backsheet to protect the rear of the module Also a new encapsulant 5% lower temperature 2 3% gain in energy production
PV Module Costs
Labor 25%
About half of the total module cost is associated with the cost of materials Silicon prices have been dropping rapidly over the last 18 months
Cost Reduction
Source: George Nemet, U Wisc.
Metallurgical Silicon
Semiconductor Silicon
Crystal Growth
Wafering
Cell Fabrication
Module Assembly
Silicon Feedstock
Heater Insulation
Silicon Bricks
Casting Station cross-section
Mono2 Module
Mono2 Wafer
Material
Lifetime
Median Std. Dev.
Jsc
mA/cm
2
Voc
mV
Simulation results
Metallurgical Silicon
Semiconductor Silicon
Crystal Growth
Wafering
Cell Fabrication
Module Assembly
0.7% 2.4%
6.3%
Cell Process
Texture Etch
ICT
o Preferred option for Mono2 and multi o Cell efficiency improvements demonstrated o Improvements lost when cells are encapsulated
Cell Process
Advanced Metallization
Looking at new approaches to increase metallization thickness, to reduce series resistance while also reducing finger width and therefore shadowing. Looking at aerosol jet printing, ink jet printing and offset printing. Successfully printed 80 to 90 m wide and ~ 35 m thick
Source: pvsociety
A number of organizations are developing solar cells with selective emitters in order to use thinner emitters and improve the shortwavelength spectral response.
Fraunhofer ISE has used laser firing of aluminum to fabricate high efficiency (21.7%) solar cells with passivated rear point contacts.
+ p
The SunPower cell has all its electrical contacts on the rear surface of the cell. Production cells ~ 22.4% efficiency; new prototypes at 23.4%. Diffusion lengths > 3 x cell thickness (using 145 m thick CZ-Si at end of 2008).
The HIT cell utilizes amorphous Si intrinsic layers (~ 5 nm) as passivation layers. The cell is symmetric except for the a-Si p+ emitter layer (~ 10 nm) on the front and the a-Si n+ contact layer (~ 15 nm) on the rear. Best lab efficiency = 22.3% (open-circuit voltages as high as 739 mV).
Metallurgical Silicon
Semiconductor Silicon
Crystal Growth
Wafering
Cell Fabrication
Module Assembly
Module Assembly defines product reliability and longevity Material choice is key to meet life time goal Good choice of materials allows life time to exceed warranty period Balance of performance and cost
Module Packaging Materials Encapsulant: Glue for the whole package: Key component Back sheet: Protect cells against the environment and provide electrical isolation Superstrate glass: Cell protection and light capture Frames and framing adhesives: Mounting and load bearing J-box/Cables: Electric isolation and longevity Tabbing ribbons: For cell interconnection
Module Development
AR Coated Glass
Qualified and implemented Gen 1 AGC Flat Glass NA AR coated glass with 1.5 to 2% increase in STC power and 4% increase in overall energy collection Gen 2 now under development with improved cosmetic uniformity and ~ 2.5% STC power gain.
7%
5%
3%
1%
6:00 -1%
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
Normalized energy generation of a day 6% to 7% more energy at early and late periods of the day
Implications
Thermal cycles stress and crack module interconnects; failures of interconnects lead to significant loss of power
Moisture and heat can lead to corrosion leading to significant power loss or module failure Modules experience significant flexing due to wind pressure that can cause cell cracks and lead to reduced module output or failure Modules experience significant flexing due to snow loads that can cause cell cracks and lead to reduced module output or failure
Residential Building-Integrated PV
The levelized cost of electricity should fall to ~ 6 /kWh by 2015 for large grid-connected arrays
Some forecasts predict that solar will provide most of our energy needs in the latter half of this century.
The levelized cost of PV electricity could fall to ~ 6 /kWh by 2015 Disruptive technologies with theoretical limits of > 60% may emerge in the next few decades Assuming a CAGR of 35% (average over the last few decades), the cumulative PV production would be ~ 3.5 TWp by 2026. 3 TWp of solar electricity will reduce carbon emissions by about 1 Gton per year (7 Gtons of carbon were emitted as CO2 in 2000) Thus, by about 2030 PV could be producing about 10% of the worlds electricity and start to play a major role in reducing CO2 emissions
Questions?