Technology Management 304

Technology Change - Diffusion

Anil Gupte

What is Diffusion?
is the process by which an Innovation or Technology is propagated through certain channels over time among the units of a system

Dynamics of Diffusion
Propagation Channels Time System S-Curve of Diffusion

Contrast with Innovation

Diffusion is about acceptance in the marketplace Diffusion happens by adoption and is strongly linked to information about the technology Diffusion is a market (demand side) characteristic whereas innovation is a supply-side characteristic

Number of users
Stage 1

S-Curve of Technology Diffusion

Time
Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

S-Curves of Technology Diffusion

Number of Users

New version of technology or new technology in marketplace Old technology

Time

Critical Mass
The point at which acceptance begins to speed up Has to be achieved within a time frame Economies of scale are sufficient to lower costs

Adopters

Adopters characteristics vary over time

Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

Opinion Leaders

Comparison of Adopters
Factor
Socio-Economic Status Personality Variables
Empathy Rationality Abstraction Risk Propensity

Innovator Early Adopter High

Early Late Laggard Majority Majority Low

Opinion Leaders

High High

Low Low

Communication Behavior

Number of users
Innovators
Stage 1

Early Adopters Early Majority

S-Curve & Adopter Characteristics

Late Majority
Stage 2

Time
Stage 3 Stage 4

Laggards

Opinion Leader
is an early adopter is an active media user interprets the meaning of media messages or content for lower-end media users is held in high esteem by those that accept his or her opinions may have a high social standing