Nghin cu bin ng cnh quan v a dng sinh hc t ngp nc ven bin Thi Bnh, nh hng quy hoch s dng

vng cho pht trin bn vng :Lun n TS. Sinh hc: / Nguyn Thy Dng
Thi Bnh l mt trong nhng tnh nng nghip then cht thuc ng bng Bc B vi 49,5 km ng b bin tri di trn hai huyn Tin Hi v Thi Thy cng cc ca sng ra bin to nn hng ngn ha t bi bi gp phn m rng din tch cho vng v hnh thnh cc loi cnh quan (CQ) mi. Tuy nhin, cng nh cc vng t ngp nc (NN) ven bin khc trong iu kin t nc i mi, nn kinh t pht trin theo c ch th trng, sc p dn s gia tng nn hot ng khai thc v s dng ti nguyn thin nhin trong vng ngy cng hi h v mnh lit hn lm cho cnh quan b bin i nhanh chng. Do , c c nhng nh hng quy hoch s dng vng theo quan im pht trin bn vng, chng ti thc hin ti lun n Nghin cu bin ng cnh quan v a dng sinh hc t ngp nc ven bin Thi Bnh, nh hng quy hoch s dng vng cho pht trin bn vng - Mc tiu: + Nghin cu v cu trc v xu hng bin ng ca cc loi CQ; + Nghin cu hin trng a dng sinh hc v bin ng cc h sinh thi (HST); + nh hng quy hoch s dng vng cho pht trin bn vng. - Nhim v:
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+ Thnh lp cc bn chuyn (bn lp ph thc vt, bn th nhng, bn a mo), bn sinh thi CQ, bn phn vng CQ v bn bin ng CQ theo thi gian; + Phn tch cu trc sinh thi CQ v cc tiu vng CQ; hin trng a dng sinh hc trong vng; + Phn tch bin ng ca cc loi CQ theo tng tiu vng, bin ng cc h sinh thi trn ton vng v nguyn nhn gy bin ng; + xut nh hng quy hoch qun l ti nguyn cho pht trin bn vng v cc gii php thc hin. - ngha khoa hc v thc tin ca lun n: (1) ngha khoa hc: cc kt qu nghin cu ca lun n gp phn lm sng t hin trng cc loi CQ, hin trng a dng sinh hc cng nh bin ng ca cc HST trong nhng giai on lch s nht nh ca vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh; (2) ngha thc tin: h thng c s d liu, tp bn cng nh cc gii php c a ra trong lun n l nhng ti liu c gi tr cho cc nh qun l trong nh hng quy hoch lnh th theo hng pht trin bn vng. - Nhng im mi ca lun n: + Xy dng c s d liu cp nht v hin trng a dng sinh hc (DSH) ti vng nghin cu; + Phn loi cnh quan v thnh lp bn sinh thi cnh quan vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh t l 1:50.000; + Ln u tin bn bin ng cc loi cnh quan t l 1:50.000 cho vng t ngp nc ven bin Thi Bnh c thnh lp. - B cc ca lun n: Lun n gm 170 trang, 46 bng s liu, 22 hnh trong c 13 bn , 140 ti liu tham kho ting Vit v ting Anh; 11 ph lc. B cc lun n gm: m u (3 trang), tng quan ti liu (19 trang), i tng v phng php nghin cu (13 trang), kt qu nghin cu v bn lun (121 trang), kt lun v kin ngh (2 trang), ti liu tham kho (12 trang).

CHNG 1. TNG QUAN TI LIU

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1.1. Nghin cu cnh quan v hng tip cn sinh thi cnh quan 1.1.1. Cc nghin cu cnh quan hc

nhn t mi trng v qun x sinh vt nn thut ng cnh quan v sinh thi cnh quan c coi l ng nht trong ni dung lun n. ng thi, quan nim c th, th hin tnh phn v cht ch trong phn ha lnh th, cng c phn tch trong cu trc ca cc tiu vng sinh thi CQ.
1.2. a dng sinh hc

Khi nim CQ c hnh thnh v pht trin t nhng nm cui th k XIX u th k XX, cho n nay, cc nh khoa hc nghin cu v CQ nc ta ch yu u da trn nn tng l lun ca trng phi nc Nga X Vit, cng thng nht ba quan nim v CQ: quan nim chung, quan nim kiu loi v quan nim c th ch cc hnh thc CQ khc nhau ph thuc vo quan nim ca ngi nghin cu.
1.1.2. Cc nghin cu sinh thi hc, h sinh thi

DSH l s phong ph ca mi c th sng tn ti trong tt c cc h sinh thi trn cn v di nc v mi t hp sinh thi m chng to nn. DSH c vai tr rt quan trng i vi vic duy tr cc chu trnh t nhin v cn bng sinh thi, l c s ca s sng cn v thnh vng ca loi ngi, s bn vng ca thin nhin trn tri t.
1.2.1. a dng sinh hc Vit Nam

Thut ng sinh thi hc xut hin t gia th k XIX bi mt nh ng vt hc ngi c, n u th k XX, sinh thi hc chuyn sang nghin cu sinh thi hc qun x sinh vt; t nhng nm 20 ca th k XX, sinh thi hc pht trin mt bc quan trng, coi h sinh thi nh l mt n v cu trc ca t nhin v tr thnh mt khoa hc gip chng ta ngy cng hiu bit su v bn cht ca sinh gii trong mi tng tc vi cc yu t mi trng, t to nn nhng nguyn tc, nh hng cho chin lc pht trin bn vng ca x hi con ngi.
1.1.3. Tip cn sinh thi cnh quan

Nm vng ng Nam chu , Vit Nam l mt trong 16 nc c DSH cao trn th gii (chim 10% s loi sinh vt trong khi din tch t lin ch chim 1%). c im v v tr a l, kh hu, ca Vit Nam gp phn to nn s a dng v HST v thnh phn loi sinh vt.
1.2.2. Bo tn DSH Vit Nam

Bo tn DSH bao gm cc hot ng lin quan n bo tn cc loi, ngun gen c trong mi loi v cc sinh cnh, cc CQ thng qua vic bo tn cc HST v vic khai thc mt cch hp l ngun ti nguyn sinh vt. Vit Nam, cng tc bo tn DSH c tin hnh kh sm vi hai hnh thc ph bin l bo tn ni vi (in-situ) v bo tn ngoi vi (ex-situ).
1.3. Tng quan v t ngp nc 1.3.1. Cu trc v chc nng t ngp nc

Hng nghin cu sinh thi CQ hay a sinh thi pht trin mnh CHLB c v mt s nc Bc u t nhng nm 60 ca th k XX. Sinh thi cnh quan l mt hng nghin cu lin ngnh v tng hp hnh thnh trn c s kt hp cc nghin cu nh lng ca sinh thi hc v tnh tng hp, tnh trt t, tnh phn cp ca cnh quan hc nhm p ng nhu cu ngy cng cao ca thc tin pht trin kinh t-x hi. Sinh thi hc cnh quan ra i vi mc ch xc tin s lin kt gia cc nh khoa hc v cc nh lp k hoch. T cc quan im nu trn, lun n thng nht vi quan nim kiu loi trong nghin cu cnh quan vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh, trong n v c s c s dng l loi cnh quan. Bi ngay trong cu trc ca mi loi cnh quan tnh sinh thi c th hin t s kt hp ca cc
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NN l "nhng m ly than bn hoc vng nc bt k l t nhin hay nhn to thng xuyn hay tm thi vi nc chy hay nc t, l nc ngt, nc l hay nc mn k c nhng vng nc bin c su khng qu 6m khi triu thp (Cng c Ramsar, 1971) NN rt a dng v loi hnh v kch c, c coi nh cu phn ca cnh quan t nhin, phn nh nhng c trng v t nhin v sinh hc, xc

nh khun kh ca cc quy hoch qun l v bo tn a dng sinh hc, ti nguyn v cc chc nng sinh thi ca n. NN l ni tch t, xut khu v bin i ca cc cht dinh dng, duy tr ngun nc, chuyn ha nng lng,; l ni sng, ni kim n, bi ca cc loi ng vt; ni thanh lc cc cht nhim, bo v b bin; duy tr ph nhiu cho t; l ni cung cp cho con ngi nhng sn vt a dng m trc ht l cc i tng thit yu i vi i sng c khai thc t cc ngnh nng-lm-ng nghip.
1.3.2. t ngp nc chu th sng Hng

1.4. Quan im pht trin bn vng

Pht trin bn vng (PTBV) c Hi ngh thng nh th gii v mi trng v pht trin t chc Rio de Janero (1992) thng qua, va l chin lc va l mc tiu pht trin kinh t-x hi ca tt c cc nc trn th gii. Vit Nam PTBV c bit n vo nhng khong cui thp nin 80 u thp nin 90. K hoch hnh ng bo tn v pht trin bn vng t ngp nc ven bin Vit Nam n nm 2015 c xy dng trn nguyn tc ch o: nhm tin ti s dng khn kho NN, bo tn DSH v gp phn PTBV kinh t-x hi, xa i gim ngho v gim nh thin tai vng ven bin; trong s lng ghp mt cch hu c vi chin lc pht trin kinh th-x hi; vic t chc thc hin phi c x hi ha, ph hp vi ngun lc ca quc gia cng nh yu cu ca cc cng c quc t lin quan m Vit Nam tham gia. Tt c cc nguyn tc trong pht trin bn vng cng nh cc quy nh ca Nh nc v bo tn v pht trin bn vng a dng sinh hc, cc vng NN s l kim ch nam cho nh hng quy hoch s dng vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh.

NN thuc chu th sng Hng chu s chi phi trc tip ca h thng sng Hng-sng Thi Bnh, ko di theo ng b bin t Sn (Hi Phng) n Lch Trng (Thanh Ho), c a hnh tng i bng phng ch nghing ra pha bin ng vi chc pht n vi . Vng ny c trn 10 ca sng ln nh nc ra bin, tham gia vo qu trnh thnh to v bin i cnh quan cng nh nhiu c tnh khc ca vng. Cn c vo hot ng ca mc nc triu, y c th c chia thnh 3 i vi nhng c tnh t rt khc nhau: i trn triu, i triu v i ngp nc ven b. Ngoi ra trong vng cn xut hin mt dng a hnh c bit, l cc cn ct v cn ngm ca sng.
1.3.3. Tng quan cc cng trnh nghin cu lin quan n vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh

CHNG 2. I TNG, QUAN IM V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU

2.1. a im v i tng nghin cu

Kt qu h thng ha cc cng trnh nghin cu lin quan n vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh t trc cho n nay cho thy, phn ln cc cng trnh nghin cu tp trung vng chu th sng Hng cn cc nghin cu cho mt vng c th nh Thi Bnh cn n l; c th chia thnh 4 nhm cng trnh: nhm iu tra tng hp; nhm v cc hp phn t nhin (a cht, a mo, kh hu, th nhng, ti nguyn sinh vt); v kinh t-x hi; v ng dng cng ngh vin thm v h thng thng tin a l.

Vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh c ta a l 20o1424 n 20o3700 v Bc v 106o2630 n 106o3800 kinh ng, nm trong ranh gii hnh chnh ca hai huyn Tin Hi v Thi Thy, c cao ln nht l nh cc cn ct t 4-5m (so vi 0m lc a) v su tnh n 6m (so vi 0m hi ) theo nh ngha v NN ca Ramsar. i tng nghin cu ca ti l cc loi CQ v DSH trn vng NN ven bin tnh Thi Bnh, nghin cu s bin ng ca chng thy c xu hng bin i ca vng t a ra nh hng quy hoch cho s pht trin bn vng.

2.2. Ti liu nghin cu

Trn c s mc tiu, cc ti liu hin c v cc phng php la chn, chng ti xy dng quy trnh nghin cu vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh trong qu trnh thc hin lun n (hnh 2.6).

Trong thi gian thc hin lun n, tc gi tham gia thc hin ti Nghin cu nh gi s bin i cnh quan v a dng sinh hc NN ven bin huyn Tin Hi (Thi Bnh), xut cc gii php quy hoch khai thc v qun l vng cho pht trin bn vng (NCCB 6.086.06), gp phn iu tra kho st b sung s liu v DSH, v tnh hnh pht trin KT-XH, tin hnh nghin cu ngoi nghip i vi cc bn chuyn . Bn cnh , l ngun ti liu t cc cng trnh khoa hc c cng b ca cc tc gi trong v ngoi nc (ti liu tham kho); cc d liu nh vin thm (nh SPOT 1 v SPOT 5) v d liu bn (cc bn hnh chnh, a hnh, th nhng, a mo t l 1:50.000, 1:25.000 dng s v analog) c cung cp bi B Ti nguyn-Mi trng, B Tng tham mu, Vin a l v Nh xut bn Bn .
2.3. Cc quan im tip cn trong nghin cu

Mc tiu lun n c thc hin da trn cc quan im: quan im h thng; quan im pht trin bn vng; tip cn a t l v a thi gian.
2.4. Phng php nghin cu
xut nh hng quy hoch s dng vng cho pht trin bn vng

Hnh 2.6. S quy trnh nghin cu vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh

Cc phng php c dng trong lun n: phng php k tha; phng php iu tra kho st thc a; phng php vin thm v h thng thng tin a l (x l v gii on nh vin thm thnh lp bn lp ph thc vt; thnh lp bn sinh thi CQ; thnh lp bn phn vng CQ; thnh lp bn bin ng CQ).
2.5. Quy trnh nghin cu

CHNG 3. KT QU V BN LUN
3.1. Cc nhn t hnh thnh cnh quan NN ven bin Thi Bnh 3.1.1. a cht-nhn t thnh to nn tng rn trong CQ

Trm tch hin i tng mt vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh bao gm cc loi trm tch ht mn t st, bt n ct rt a dng v ngun gc (cc tng sng, bin, sng-bin hn hp, m ly) to nn tng rn cho s thnh to cc loi CQ hin i ngy nay.
3.1.2. a hnh-nhn t phn b nng lng v vt cht trong CQ

Thi Bnh l phn bin hin i ca delta sng Hng v sng Thi Bnh nn thuc lp CQ ng bng. a hnh khu vc Thi Bnh thuc loi ng bng thp, c cao tuyt i t 0,5 3 m, do thuc ph lp CQ ng bng ven bin.
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B mt a hnh vng nghin cu bao gm 3 nhm ngun gc chnh: ngun gc sng, ngun gc sng-bin hn hp v ngun gc bin hnh thnh cc dng a hnh khc nhau ng thi kt hp vi trm tch tng mt hnh thnh nn cc hng CQ khc nhau.
3.1.3. Kh hu-nhn t thnh to nn tng nhit m trong CQ

CQ vn ha. Hot ng ngn sng, cng cuc khai hoang ln bin m rng t nng nghip, hnh thnh cc khu NTTS nc l,... gp phn hnh thnh cc loi CQ ven bin c th.
3.2. Cu trc sinh thi CQ vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh 3.2.1. H thng phn loi CQ p dng cho thnh lp bn sinh thi CQ vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh

Vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh thuc kiu kh hu nhit i gi ma c ma ng lnh, ma h, thi k kh t 2,1 n 3,0 thng (k hiu II*.1.d) (Phm Khanh Vn, 2000). Cc ch tiu sinh kh hu chnh l c s quyt nh s tn ti ca cc kiu thm thc vt t nhin hay s hnh thnh kiu CQ rng rm thng xanh nhit i ma ma y.
3.1.4. Thy hi vn-nhn t thnh to nn tng m trong CQ

Kt hp quan im phn loi CQ ca Phm Hong Hi (1993, 1997, 2006) v Phm Th Vnh (2004), h thng phn loi s dng trong thnh lp bn sinh thi CQ vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh t l 1:50.000 bao gm: lp CQ ng bng ph lp CQ ng bng ven bin kiu CQ rng rm thng xanh nhit i ma ma 6 hng CQ 30 loi CQ (2007), 25 loi CQ (1986), 24 loi CQ (1965).
3.2.2. Cu trc sinh thi CQ vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh

Nm trong vng ng bng sng Hng vi 5 ca sng ra bin nn vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh chu nh hng ca c ch thy vn sng v ch hi vn, to iu kin hnh thnh ph lp CQ ng bng ven bin v l nguyn nhn t nhin gy bin ng cc loi CQ.
3.1.5. Th nhng-nhn t thnh to nn tng dinh dng CQ

Vi cng mt h thng phn loi bn sinh thi CQ vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh c thnh lp (hnh 3.6, 3.7, 3.8) vi s loi CQ, din tch v khng gian ca chng khc nhau ty tng nm (bng 3.3). Trn hng CQ bi tch t ven lng sng trm tch bn bt ct c trng c cc loi CQ la nc v hoa mu trn t ph sa c bi, t mn trung bnht, CQ ci trn t phn v CQ NTTS nc l trn t mn trung bnh-t. Trn hng CQ ng bng tch t ngun gc sng-bin hn hp trm tch bt st ch yu xut hin cc loi CQ la nc v hoa mu trn t phn, t ph sa khng c bi, t mn trung bnh-t, CQ ng mui trn t mn trung bnh-t. Hng CQ bi triu trm tch bn ct c cc loi CQ trng c ngp triu, CQ RNM, CQ NTTS nc l trn t mn, t ct. Trn hng CQ cn ct c trm tch ct bt c trng c cc loi CQ la nc v hoa mu trn t ct v CQ qun c. Hng CQ cn ct ngoi trm tch ct c loi CQ c trng l CQ phi lao trn t ct, bn cnh cn c cc loi CQ RNM, CQ trng c ngp triu, CQ NTTS nc l trn t ct. S lng cc loi CQ trn tng hng c s khc nhau v s khoanh vi v tng din tch theo tng mc thi gian nghin cu (bng 3.3).
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Th nhng c v nh tm gng phn nh CQ v y l nhn t duy nht ch ra mi tng quan tc ng gia cc yu t sng v khng sng. Mi quan h tng h gia cc nhm qun x thc vt v cc loi t (8 loi) xc nh cc loi CQ khc nhau trong vng.
3.1.6. Thm thc vt-nhn t ch th trong CQ

Phn tch bn hin trng lp ph thc vt vng nghin cu kt hp ti liu [Phan Nguyn Hng, 2005] v iu tra kho st thc a, cc loi lp ph vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh bao gm: nui trng thy sn (NTTS) nc ngt, la nc v hoa mu, cy trng trong khu dn c, phi lao, rung mui, ci, rng ngp mn (RNM), trng c ngp triu, NTTS nc l v sinh vt bin.
3.1.7. Tc ng ca con ngi-nhn t lin quan n vic hnh thnh v pht trin cnh quan

Con ngi c nhng tc ng trc tip hay gin tip ln hu ht cc loi CQ trong hot ng kinh t ca mnh t hnh thnh nn cc loi
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Bng 3.3. Thng k cc hng cnh quan

Nm Cc hng CQ Bi tch t ven lng sng trm tch bn bt ct ng bng tch t ngun gc sng bin trm tch bt st Bi triu trm tch bn bt ct Cn ct trong trm tch ct st Cn ct ngoi trm tch ct Vng di triu ngp nc thng xuyn ti su 6m 1965 S loi CQ S khoanh vi Tng din tch (ha) S loi CQ S khoanh vi Tng din tch (ha) S loi CQ S khoanh vi Tng din tch (ha) S loi CQ S khoanh vi Tng din tch (ha) S loi CQ S khoanh vi Tng din tch (ha) S loi CQ S khoanh vi Tng din tch (ha) 5 57 2.474 9 277 26.491 5 52 14.202 2 428 14.441 2 8 191 1 1 20.890 1986 7 60 2.596 8 255 24.411 4 25 4.819 2 365 15.667 3 29 2.375 1 1 29.420 2007 6 89 3.076 6 263 25.746 9 92 8.028 3 452 15.660 5 53 2.987 1 1 26.380

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3.2.3. c im cc tiu vng CQvng NN ven bin Thi Bnh

Cc tiu vng cnh quan (hnh 3.9) thuc nhm ngoi c tng din tch 36.918,32 ha (k hiu I.1-I.5), bao gm cc dng a hnh bi triu, vng ngp nc thng xuyn ti su 6m khi triu kit v cn ct ca sng, lun chu nh hng trc tip ca thy triu. Nhm tiu vng cnh quan trong (k hiu II.1-II.4) thuc cc dng a hnh ng bng tch t, cn ct c v bi bi ven sng, khng hoc chu tc ng gin tip ca thy triu, chim 42.487,18 ha.
3.3. a dng sinh hc vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh 3.3.1. a dng h sinh thi

Vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh c c trng bi cc h sinh thi trn vng triu: HST RNM, HST bi triu, HST NTTS nc l, HST cn ct ca sng v HST khc trn vng ngp nc (ven cc lch sng su, vng nc di triu ngp nc thng xuyn ti su 6m); trong vng ph cn sau i ngp triu c cc h sinh thi: HST thkhu dn c; HST nng nghip rung la nc; HST sng, HST NTTS nc ngt v HST nng nghip khc (hoa mu, rung mui, ci,..)
3.3.2. a dng loi

Vng ca sng ven bin ni chung v vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh ni ring c nh gi l vng giu ngun li nhng a dng sinh hc khng cao (bng 3.4)
Bng 3. 4. Thng k hin trng a dng loi
Nhm sinh vt Thc vt bc cao c mch Thc vt ni ng vt ni ng vt y C Lng c B st Chim Th Tng cng Loi 484 168 75 274 153 14 24 191 15 1.398 Ging 373 70 49 151 98 10 19 105 9 884 H 173 33 33 75 49 5 7 44 419 B 8 13 1 2 14 4 Lp 4 1 1 Ngnh 3 5 -

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3.4. Bin ng CQ v DSH vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh 3.4.1. Mt vi nhn thc

bnh-t thuc tiu vng I.2 (27,16 ha). M nguyn nhn do s bin i t cc loi CQ khc nh: CQ ng mui, CQ la nc v hoa mu trn t mn trung bnh-t, CQ trng c ngp triu, CQ RNM, CQ sinh vt bin. 3.4.2.2. Bin ng DSH Nghin cu CQ cp loi (loi cnh quan) trn vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh cho php xc nh ranh gii, v tr cc h sinh thi v khi CQ bin ng s ko theo s bin ng v c khng gian v din tch ca HST. giai on ny, HST th-khu dn c (tng thm 1.480 ha) v HST rung la nc (din tch c m rng t cc vng NTTS nc ngt, vng t mi thot khi nh hng trc tip ca thy triu) c phn ln din tch ca h tn ti l khng bin ng, s chuyn dch ca HST ny c m rng v pha bin v cc bi bi ven sng. HST NTTS nc ngt t ch ch l cc khoanh vi nh l (nm 1965 c 105,30 ha) n nm 1986 c 848,9 ha vi cc khu nui trng tp trung. HST nng nghip khc trong vng vi cc qun x sinh vt c trng nh hoa mu, ci (din tch gim t 207,49 ha cn 25,39 ha) hay cc ng mui (din tch gim t 388 ha cn 70,02 ha). HST RNM trn bi triu c din tch tng t 436,13 ha ln n 1.395,1 ha tuy nhin ch c 95,79 ha khng bin ng trong giai on ny cn li l din tch rng c trng mi; v khng gian ca HST RNM t ch ch xut hin trn bi triu cc x Nam Ph, Thi Thng, Thi , Thy Xun vi cc khoanh vi nh nay m rng trn bi triu x Nam Ph, Nam Hng, Thi , Thi Thng v Thy Trng. HST NTTS nc l nm 1965 ch c 3,89 ha x Thy Hi n nm 1986 din tch ny tng ln l 585,28 ha tp trung trn bi triu x Thi Thng, Thi v trn bi bi ca sng Ln. HST bi triu c din tch gim t 14.106,7 ha cn 5.495,4 ha do s hnh thnh cc cn ct ca sng t a hnh bi triu thp (HST cn ct ca sng mi xut hin ca sng Tr L, ca sng Ba Lt).

Cc HST NN ven bin Thi Bnh l nhng h rt nhy cm v km n nh so vi nhiu HST khc. S bin ng ca HST ko theo l s bin i ca cc thnh phn cu trc, sau l cc mi quan h gia cc loi, gia qun x sinh vt vi mi trng. Trong iu kin thc hin lun n, tc gi khng c d liu qua cc mc thi gian phn tch s bin ng ca thnh phn cc loi trong HST m trn c s nghin cu bin ng CQ ch ra s bin ng cc HST c hnh thnh trn cc CQ c th, song cng mi dng mc bin ng v khng gian phn b v din tch ca chng.
3.4.2. Giai on 1965-1986:

3.4.2.1. Bin ng CQ (hnh 3.11) Thuc nhm tiu vng CQ trong cc loi CQ phn ln l khng bin ng; tuy nhin, c s m rng din tch ca loi CQ cy trng trong khu dn c (CQ qun c) tp trung tiu vng II.1, II.2 v II.3 (1.165,43 ha); loi CQ NTTS nc ngt trn t mn trung bnh-t thuc tiu vng II.1, II.2 v II.3 (705,08 ha); loi CQ NTTS nc l trn bi bi ven sng thuc tiu vng II.1 v II.3 (167,74 ha) do s bin i ch yu t din tch ca cc loi CQ la nc v hoa mu, mt phn t loi CQ ci v CQ ng mui. Thuc nhm tiu vng CQ ngoi hu ht tt c cc loi CQ u c s bin ng, phn din tch khng bin ng ch yu thuc loi CQ trng c ngp triu v CQ sinh vt bin. Trong cc loi CQ c bin ng tng ln v din tch c xc nh l loi CQ la nc v hoa mu trn t mn trung bnh-t pha ngoi thuc tiu vng I.2, I.4 v I.5 (692,97 ha); loi CQ qun c tiu vng I.4 v I.5 (216,31 ha); loi CQ RNM cc tiu vng I.3 v I.5 (910,23 ha); loi CQ phi lao trn t ct trn tiu vng I.3, I.4 v I.5 (141,56 ha); loi CQ NTTS nc l trn tiu vng I.4 (311,81 ha); loi CQ NTTS nc ngt trn t mn trung
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S bin i ca cc HST tt yu s dn ti s bin ng v thnh phn loi, s phn b v nng sut sinh hc ca chng.
3.4.3. Giai on 1986-2007:

bi con ngi m rng din tch vng NTTS nc l v mt phn do xi l pha nam cn Vnh. HST bi triu mc d b suy gim rt nhiu v din tch do s hnh thnh cc vng NTTS nc l v trng RNM, nhng cng c 1.923,96 ha din tch mi do qu trnh bi t. S bin ng ca cc HST trong giai on ny l hon ton ph hp vi xu th pht trin ca vng. Tng t nh giai on trn, s m rng nhanh chng v khng gian ca HST NTTS nc l cng vi hot ng khai thc ca con ngi lm bin i v cu trc cng nh suy gim nng sut ca cc HST trong vng.
3.4.4. Nguyn nhn gy bin ng CQ v a dng sinh hc

3.4.3.1. Bin ng CQ (hnh 3.12) Cc tiu vng thuc nhm tiu vng trong ch yu l cc loi CQ khng bin ng, trn cc bi bi ven sng c s bin ng t cc loi CQ la nc v hoa mu thnh loi CQ NTTS nc l (440,61 ha); loi CQ cy trng trong khu dn c c din tch c m rng t cc loi CQ la nc v hoa mu tp trung ch yu tiu vng II.3. Trn cc tiu vng thuc nhm tiu vng ngoi loi CQ NTTS nc l xut hin tt c cc tiu vng (tr tiu vng I.1) vi din tch tng thm l 2.705,37 ha do s bin i ca cc loi CQ RNM v CQ trng c ngp triu. Loi CQ RNM xut hin ch yu l c trng mi trn bi triu (1.633,97 ha) trn cc tiu vng I.2, I.3 v I.5. Loi CQ NTTS nc ngt thuc tiu vng I.5 (139 ha) do bin ng t cc loi CQ la nc v hoa mu. 3.4.3.2. Bin ng DSH giai on ny, cc HST trong ni ng nh HST th-khu dn c, HST NTTS nc ngt, HST rung la nc v HST nng nghip khc gn nh khng c bin ng c v din tch v khng gian. Bn cnh l s bin ng mnh m ca cc HST trn vng triu c bit l HST rng ngp mn v HST NTTS nc l. HST NTTS nc l ng lot xut hin trn bi triu tt c cc x ven bin v trn c cc cn ct ca sng vi tng din tch t 585,28 ha nm 1986 thnh 4.220,93 ha nm 2007. HST RNM nu xt trn tng din tch rng th c s bin ng khng ln (1.395,1 ha nm 1986 v 1.766,12 ha nm 2007) nhng thc cht khng gian ca h thay i rt ln, ch c 58,53 ha khng bin ng, cn li l phn din tch rng c trng mi trn bi triu HST cn ct ca sng c m rng hn v din tch (tng 1.307 ha) nhng din tch ca qun x phi lao li gim (156 ha cn 101,1 ha),
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3.4.4.1. Qu trnh bi t-xi l: Bi t v xi l l hai qu trnh a cht t nhin di ven b. Trong , bi t gp phn hnh thnh cc cn ct ca sng, m rng bi triu t xut hin loi CQ mi, HST mi hay m rng khng gian ca cc HST c; xi l l qu trnh ngc li. 3.4.4.2. Qu trnh quai ln bin: L tc ng ca con ngi bin vng t ngp triu thnh khu canh tc nng nghip, khu dn c v khu NTTS nc l hnh thnh cc loi CQ nhn sinh, cc HST nhn to. 3.4.4.3. S dng t v chuyn i s dng t: Hin trng s dng t trong vng gp phn phn nh s tn ti ca cc loi CQ hay khi hin trng s dng t thay i s lm thay i loi CQ nh xut hin loi CQ mi, mt i loi CQ no hoc lm tng gim din tch ca cc loi CQ cng nh cc HST. 3.4.4.4. Bo v cc nh hng khc: Bo kt hp vi triu cng, s dng ln ca mc nc bin thc y qu trnh ph hy b bin v gy nhim mn vng ni ng, hu qu s lm cho cc HST, cc loi CQ ven bin b ph hy, cc cng trnh b tn ph v c bit din tch t canh tc gim i nghim trng.

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3.5. Cc gii php khoa hc quy hoch s dng vng cho PTBV 3.5.1. Bi cnh

tn to CQ; t chc tuyn truyn gio dc nhm nng cao nhn thc v chnh sch, php lut. - Phn vng CQ-c s khoa hc trong nh hng quy hoch Mi tiu vng c th c xem l mt h thng, bao gm cc yu t t nhin (cc nhm sinh thi CQ) v cc yu t KT-XH, chng tc ng qua li vi nhau bi dng vt cht v nng lng. Mi tiu vng c ranh gii v nhng c trng ring (hnh 3.9). y c xem l c s khoa hc quan trng thit lp quy hoch cho s pht trin ca vng.
3.5.4. nh hng quy hoch vng

Tnh Thi Bnh xy dng v ph duyt quy hoch tng th pht trin KT-XH ca tnh, ca hai huyn ven bin vi cc ch tiu c th.
3.5.2. Quan im v mc tiu nh hng quy hoch

Cc quan im bao gm: quan im sinh thi h thng; khai thc cc li th so snh v ti nguyn trong vng; vng ven bin Thi Bnh ang trong qu trnh pht trin v km n nh; khai thc v s dng ti nguyn theo quan im pht trin bn vng; quy hoch pht trin kinh t-x hi gn lin vi sn xut hng ha; quy hoch pht trin KT - XH phi da trn c s tip cn cng ng. Mc tiu tng qut: pht trin KT-XH vng ven bin mt cch nhanh chng, n nh, khai thc c hiu qu bn vng cc tim nng. Mc tiu kinh t -x hi: phi m bo pht trin cc thnh phn kinh t, tp trung vo cc ngnh mi nhn, then cht gp phn nng cao thu nhp cho ngi dn a phng, chuyn dch c cu kinh t, to vic lm, ci thin i sng vt cht v tinh thn cho ngi dn. Mc tiu v mi trng: ha nhp v lng ghp nhng vn bo v mi trng vo quy hoch pht trin KT-XH, s dng bn vng cc dng ti nguyn gn lin vi s tn to, gi gn CQ, bo v mi trng.
3.5.3. Nhim v quy hoch

3.5.4.1. t v s dng t - Sn xut la v hoa mu cn hng n chuyn i cy trng, to nng sut cao trn n v din tch bng cc m hnh 50 triu ng/ha vi nhng tp on cy trng thch hp vi iu kin t ai (thuc lo, thuc l, du tm, t, c chua, da leo, lc, khoai ty...) ca tng tiu vng, nht l nhng ni t cao pha ct, ti tiu thun li trn cc cn ct c, thuc cc tiu vng trong : II.1, II.2, II.4. - Dn in i tha hnh thnh cc trang tri sn xut chuyn canh hay p dng v nhn rng cc m hnh VAC theo hng chuyn i nhng ni ng lt, chua phn...(trn bi bi ven sng ca cc tiu vng II.1 v II. 3) cy la c nng sut thp trc y sang NTTS nc ngt (c nc ngt, tm cng xanh...). - nh gi kh nng quai ln bin trong vng, trc ht l khu vc t cao iu kin quai pha ngoi quc gia thuc x Thu Trng (tiu vng I.2) v x Nam Ph (tiu vng I.5) sm ci to a vo s dng theo hng nui tm sinh thi. 3.5.4.2. Pht trin lm nghip - RNM ven bin: duy tr din tch RNM hin c, m rng din tch rng trn nhng lm phn hoang ha sau khi lm m nui tm tht bi, nht l trn cc cn o ca sng, cc bi triu cao tt c cc tiu vng thuc nhm ngoi : I.2, I.3, I.4 v I.5.
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- Xy dng cc ch tiu pht trin KT-XH n nm 2015 + V kinh t: Gi tr sn xut bnh qun u ngi tng 1315%/nm; chuyn dch c cu kinh t ph hp vi ti nguyn thin nhin, iu kin c th v ngun lc lao ng. + V x hi v vn ho gio dc: gim mc gia tng dn s t nhin xung di 0,7%/nm; tch cc i mi c cu lao ng theo hng m rng ngnh ngh; thc hin i mi gio dc o to, kt hp o to tay ngh c trnh cao; xy dng m hnh vn ha cng ng. + V mi trng: xy dng v nng cp cc c s h tng; quy hoch cc khu vc gom rc, nc thi v xy dng cc phng n x l;
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- i vi rng phng h trn bi, cn ct, trng phi c th kt hp trng thm keo l trm, keo tai tng trn cc tiu vng I.3, I.4 v I.5. - Trng rng phn tn: cn y mnh trng cy phn tn trn cc cn ct ni ng, ven ng thn x, ven sng, h ...trn tt c cc tiu vng thuc nhm trong : II.1, II.2, II.3 v II.4. 3.5.4.3. Pht trin NTTS nc l Nui qung canh v qung canh ci tin d kin b tr trn phn t bi triu cao nm pha ngoi quc gia hin nay, thuc cc tiu vng I.2, I.3, I.4, I.5; v mt phn trong quc gia thuc a phn cc x Thy Xun, Thi , ng Minh, ng Hi (tiu vng II.3, II.4); nui thm canh d kin b tr trn phn t pha trong quc gia, ti tiu vng II.1 (x Thy Xun), II.2 (x Thi ), II.3 (x Nam Ph). 3.5.4.4. Vn bo v mi trng nhim mi trng khng ch l vn cp bch vng ven bin Thi Bnh m l tnh trng chung trong qu trnh cng nghip ha hin i ha t nc. Nguyn nhn ch yu do cht thi khng c x l, x thi trc tip ra mi trng. Do , trong quy hoch cn: to nn ngun nc sch cho sinh hot ca ngi dn; quy nh v hnh thnh cc im chn lp rc thi, khai thng cng rnh v thu hi nc thi, nht l cc c s sn xut ch bin nng thy sn, cc lng ngh; xy dng tp qun s dng phn hu c bn cho ng rung, gim thiu s dng phn bn ha hc, thuc tr su dit c, dit tp...; nghim cm cc hnh ng hy hoi cc HST nhy cm nh RNM, cc m h... tn to CQ vn ho v mi trng, quy hoch ngha trang...
3.5.6. Gii php thc hin cc nh hng quy hoch s dng vng cho pht trin bn vng

KH-CN, gii php v gio dc, o to, nng cao nhn thc, gii php v th trng v gii php v t chc tng cng nng lc qun l c quan tm hn c.

KT LUN V KIN NGH

Kt lun

1. H thng phn loi CQ p dng cho thnh lp bn sinh thi CQ vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh t l 1:50.000 bao gm: lp cnh quan ng bng ph lp cnh quan ng bng ven bin kiu CQ rng kn thng xanh nhit i ma ma 6 hng CQ cc loi CQ (s lng khc nhau ty thi im) 2. Cu trc sinh thi CQ trong vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh c phn tch trn s t hp ca 11 loi lp ph vi 6 loi t cng cc nhn t thnh to CQ khc (a cht, a hnh, kh hu, thy hi vn v tc ng ca con ngi), t xc nh c nm 1965 c 24 loi CQ, nm 1986 c 25 loi CQ v nm 2007 c 30 loi CQ. 3. Trn c s iu tra b sung v k tha cc kt qu nghin cu trn vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh c xc nh c 10 HST bao gm cc h sinh thi trn vng triu v cc h sinh thi trong vng ph cn sau i ngp triu cng khu h ng thc vt phong ph a dng (tng s l 1.383 loi) trong c nhiu loi c gi tr kinh t v bo tn. 4. Phn tch bin ng ca cc loi CQ trn tng tiu vng xc nhn cc tiu vng thuc nhm trong , cc loi CQ t bin ng. ch c s bin i mt s khoanh vi c din tch khng ln do tc ng ca con ngi hnh thnh cc loi CQ qun c v CQ NTTS nc ngt. Cc loi CQ trn cc tiu vng ngoi (tr tiu vng I.1) li c s bin ng rt ln do qu trnh bi t-xi l t nhin, do tc ng ca con ngi trong hot ng khai thc ti nguyn gp phn m rng din tch cc loi CQ trng c ngp triu, NTTS nc l, RNM, phi lao, 5. Nghin cu CQ cp loi cho php xc nh ranh gii, v tr cc HST v khi CQ bin ng s ko theo s bin ng c v din tch
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Cc gii php v th ch chnh sch; khoa hc cng ngh; t chc v tng cng nng lc qun l; gio dc o to nng cao nhn thc; gii php v th trng; v hp tc trong nc v quc t; gii php v ti chnh cn tin hnh ng b s m bo cho quy hoch c thc hin mt cch c hiu qu nht. Tuy nhin, trong cc gii php v
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v khng gian ca cc HST. Giai on 1965-1986, c trng l s bin ng ca cc HST th-khu dn c v HST rung la nc theo hng m rng v bc u cc HST NTTS nc l c quan tm pht trin. Giai on 1986-2007 cc HST trong ni ng t ti s n nh nht nh, tuy nhin bn cnh li l s m rng nhanh chng ca HST NTTS nc l, s bin ng v khng gian ca HST RNM. 6. nh hng quy hoch s dng vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh c tp trung mt s lnh vc ch yu, l vn t v s dng t, pht trin lm nghip, pht trin nui trng thy sn v vn bo v mi trng, t xut cc gii php cho pht trin trin bn vng (gii php khoa hc cng ngh, gii php gio dc o to v nng cao nhn thc, gii php th trng v gii php t chc, tng cng cng tc qun l) gp phn cho vic xy dng quy hoch pht trin KT-XH ca a phng.
Kin ngh

1. Vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh nhy cm v km bn vng, cnh quan bin i nhanh do c tc ng nhn sinh v cc qu trnh t nhin. V vy, phn tch, nh gi bin ng CQ v DSH cn c tin hnh nh k theo thi gian (khong 5-10 nm) kp thi iu chnh quy hoch, qun l nhm m bo cho s pht trin bn vng. 2. Cn nghin cu, xy dng b ch s nh gi tnh thch nghi cho pht trin bn vng i vi cc loi cnh quan vng t ngp nc ven bin Thi Bnh. 3. Cn c nhng nghin cu, nh gi chi tit nh hng ca bin i kh hu v dng cao mc nc bin n CQ v DSH vng NN ven bin Thi Bnh.

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