Renewable Energy 29 (2004) 403411 www.elsevier.

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Technical note

Predicting average energy conversion of photovoltaic system in Malaysia using a simplied method
T.M.I. Alamsyah , K. Sopian, A. Shahrir
Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia Received 27 March 2003; accepted 21 April 2003

Abstract This paper is about predicting the average conventional energy conversion by a photovoltaic system in Malaysia. The calculation is based on average number of days in a month. Average hourly energy ows are estimated based on knowledge of array test parameters, monthly average of hourly ambient temperature and monthly average of daily hemispherical radiation. The monthly average of diffuse component of radiation can be predicted based on hemispherical radiation, by using an appropriate empirical correlation related to the monthly average of diffuse fraction to monthly average of clearness index. The values of hourly average radiation are estimated based on a statistical model. 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Photovoltaic system; Average hourly radiation; Kuala Lumpur; Malaysia

1. Introduction For optimum design of photovoltaic system in certain region, the estimation of long-term system performance is necessary. One of the approaches to obtain this information is by employing a computer simulation that uses special software such as TRNSYS [1]. The software can compute system performance with a high temporal accuracy resolution and integrate the result over time. However the extensive meteorological data required for simulations are usually not available for extended

Corresponding author. Tel.: +603-8925-1000; fax: +603-8929-6145. E-mail address: ceklam@hotmail.com (T.M.I. Alamsyah).

0960-1481/$ - see front matter 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0960-1481(03)00141-1

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Nomenclature A C Iarray Ib Id Ih H Hd h H KT rt rd UL iarray Id it n w ws wr s f d qz qarray s he b g ta area of photovoltaic system (m2) the concentration for at-plate array (MJ/m2) the radiation incident hourly on the array per unit area (MJ/m2) indirect irradiance at normal incidence (MJ/m2) hourly diffuse irradiation hourly global irradiation on a horizontal plane(MJ/m2) monthly average of daily extraterrestrial irradiation on a horizontal plane (MJ/m2) monthly average of daily diffuse radiation monthly average of daily ground reected irradiation monthly average of daily clearness index factor for converting monthly average of daily diffuse irradiation on a horizontal plane factor for converting monthly of average daily global irradiation thermal loss coefcient (W/m2C) monthly average of hourly irradiation on the array surface (MJ/m2) monthly average of hourly diffuse irradiation monthly average of hourly global irradiation on a horizontal plane average number of days in a month hour angle measured from solar noon: +ve for afternoon (radians) sunset hour angle (radians) sunset angle on an inclined plane (radians) latitude of location: +ve, north; ve, south (radians) the suns declination angle (radian) angle of incidence of direct irradiance on the horizontal plane (radians) angle of incidence of direct irradiance on array plane (radians) array title angle from the horizontal plane (radians) energetic efciency of the auxiliary power utility temperature coefcient (C1) radiation intensity coefcient transmittanceabsorbance product

periods at many meteorological stations in developing countries. An alternative approach is to use simplied and easier computational methods that do not require extensive data and that can be adapted for hand-calculation methods. This method would be easier to understand than the one using computer software. Several studies in the past have described various simplied methods estimating the long-term average performance or energy conversion of photovoltaic system. Ref. [2] describes a procedure which combines basic parameters characteristic of the

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photovoltaic array with local monthly mean temperature and a monthly mean clearness index to yield a monthly average efciency, which, when multiplied by monthly array insulations, gives electrical energy output. On the other hand, Ref. [3] presents a method for predicting the monthly average of conventional energy displaced by photovoltaic system based upon a monthly average of meteorological data. In this paper, another simplied method for predicting the long-term average conventional energy conversion by a photovoltaic system is used to predict an average performance of photovoltaic system in Malaysia. 2. Prediction of electrical output of the photovoltaic array The efciency of a photovoltaic (PV) array is a function of cell temperature and array irradiation which is represented by the following equation [2]: h hr1b(TtTr) glog10Iarray (1) where hr is the array efciency measured at reference cell temperature and this is relatively constant for the range of operating temperatures encountered in at-plate array [3], where Tc is the cell temperature and Tr is the reference cell temperature at which hr is determined, g is radiation-intensity coefcient for cell efciency, and Iarray is the radiation incident on the array per unit area. Eq. (1) is written with g = 0 [3]. It is convenient to subtract and add the ambient temperature, Ta, from and to the two temperature terms in parentheses in Eq. (1), Tc and Tr respectively, and to give after setting g = 0. The equation can be written as follows: h hr[1b(TcTa) b(TaTr)] (2) The energy balance of the array equates the solar energy gain in the array to the electrical output and thermal losses which can be expressed by the following equation: taIarray hIarray UL(TcTa) (3) where ta is the transmittanceabsorbance product of the array and UL is the thermal loss coefcient per unit area between array and ambient temberature. Meanwhile h in Eq. (3), is of the order of 0.1 ta. Therefore, Eq. (3) can be estimated by the following equation: TcTa 0.9

ta I Ul array

(4)

The term, ta / U L, can be determined from measurements of cell temperature, ambient temperature and solar radiation at nominal operating cell temperature (NOCT) conditions I array = 800 W / m2 = 2.88 MJ / m2 / h, wind speed = 1 m / s and h = 0 in Eq. (3). ta/UL is obtained as: ta (Tc,NOCTTa,NOCT) UL Iarray,NOCT (5)

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Assuming ta / U L to be constant over the relevant operating temperatire range, Eq. (4) with ta / U L obtained from Eq. (5), can be used in Eq. (2) to obtain: Iarray h hr 10.9b (T T )b(TaTr) Iarray,NOCT c,NOCT a,NOCT The electrical energy output, Qc, of the array is given by: Qc hAIarray (7)

(6)

where h is obtained from Eq. (6) and A is the area. The average of hourly radiation incident on the array Iarray can be approximated by the following equation [1]: 1 Iarray Ibcosqarray Id C (8)

where Ib is direct irradiance at normal incidence, qarray is the angle of incidence of direct irradiance on the array, C is the concentration (which is equal to 1 for a atplate array) and Id is the diffuse irradiance. If all the radiation in an hour is assumed to be concentrated at the middle hours, Eq. (8) also gives the hourly irradiation incident on the array, with qarray measured at the middle of the hour. Often, hourly radiation data, especially the data that resolved into component beam and diffuse, are not available at many meteorological stations in Malaysia. The records available at most meteorological stations are those of monthly averages of daily hemispherical (global) irradiation on a horizontal plane. Hd, which can be predicted from one of the several correlations given by Refs. [46]. Other factors relating the ratio Hd / H with monthly average clearness index, KT, for w s 81.40 and 0.3 KT0.8 can be expressed by the following equation: Hd 3 1.3113.022KT 3.427K2 T1.821KT H (9)

where Hd can be obtained with KT = H / H0 where H0 is the monthly average of extraterrestrial radiation. H and Hd can be resolved into monthly average of hourly values, it and id, respectively, by the use of conversion factors. rt, and rd [1,7]. These are presented in the following equation as: it rtH and, id rdHd (11) (10)

where rt and rd resolve monthly average of daily irradiation to monthly average of hourly values. Ib of Eq. (8) can be expressed in terms of the hemispherical radiation on a horizontal plane, Ih, and diffuse radiation, Id, as:

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Iba

(IhId) cosz

(12)

where qz is zenith angle. Eq. (8) can be written, after replacing the instantaneous or hourly irradiation values, I, by the monthly average hourly irradiation, i, obtained from Eqs. (10) and (11), as: iarray (itid) cosqarray id cosqz (13)

The other variable in Eq. (11) that still needs to be evaluated is cosqarray / cosqz. For xed-plate surface located at latitude, f with azimuth equal to zero and tilt angle s, cosqarray / cosqz is given by the following equation [9]: cosarray cos(fs)(coswcosws) cosz cosf(coswcosws) The angle wp s in Eq. (14) is given by: cosws tan(fs)tand (15) (14)

where d is the declination of the sun. For an array with tilt, s, equal latitude, f, as assumed in this paper, Eq. (15) is evaluated with cosws = 0. Now, Eq. (13) can be evaluated using values of cosqarray / cosqz and calculated at the middle of each hour for an average number of days in a month, to obtain monthly average values of Iarray, which are entered into the array efciency and energy as seen in Eqs. (6) and (7) [8].

3. Simulation procedure This section outlines the simulation procedure which can be adopted to determine the average performance of the PV system in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As an example, the average of the month of May is selected. The procedure is suitable for hand calculations and the speed of calculation can be enhanced by using a spreadsheet application, e.g. Microsoft Excel. For each month, the average number of days, n, is used for the simulation as recommended by Ref. [6]. Long-term monthly average meteorological data are used. This is assumed for the average number of days. Day time hourly values of the radiation available per unit array area, iarray, are calculated using location, radiation data as given in the table for the month of May in Kuala Lumpur. In Table 4, w is the hour angle, n is the average number of days for the month, d is the suns declination on the average number of days of the month, f is the latitude of the location and ws is the sunset hour angle calculated based on f and d. it and id are the average hourly diffuse and hemispherical radiation calculated from the monthly average radiation, H and Hd, using Eqs. (10) and (11) with the appropriate conversion factors,

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Table 1 Radiation data in May for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Description d Monthly average of diffuse H Monthly average of daily radiation on horizontal surface H t Monthly average of clear index K Value 8.76 MJ/m2 17.7 MJ/m2 0.495

Table 2 Data ambient temperature (location: latitude Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia) Time 6:00;7:00 7:00;8:00 8:00;9:00 9.00;10:00 10:00;11:00 11:00;12:00 12:00:13.00 13:00;14:00 14.00;15:00 15.00;16:00 16:00;17:00 17:00;18:00 Temperature 23.7 24.1 25.6 27.5 27.7 27.8 26.7 31.2 29.6 31.3 28.8 29.9

Table 3 System array parameters Array type Reference efciency, hr Reference cell temperature, Tr Iarray,NOCT Temperature coefcient, b Ambient temperature at NOCT, Ta,NOCT Cell temperature at NOCT condition, Tc,NOCT Power conditioning efciency, ht Flat plate 0.10 25 C 800 W/m2 0.004/C 20 C 46 C 0.90

Table 4 Determination of average hourly radiation available at the array (location: Kuala Lumpur; latitude f 3.1; month May. Average Hd = 876.2 MJ / m2 Kt = 0.495. H = 17.70 MJ / m2, Array type: at plate rt it id cosqarray / cosqz iarray Ta h Qc (MJ)

Time

w n (radiations) 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 1.589 0.019 0.082 0.106 0.123 0.132 0.132 0.123 0.106 0.106 0.082 0.053 0.019 0.0137 0.0430 0.0750 0.1056 0.1290 0.1424 0.1424 0.1290 0.1056 0.0750 0.0430 0.0137 0.166 0.464 0.718 0.928 1.077 1.156 1.156 1.077 0.928 0.718 0.464 0.166 0.2420 0.7611 1.3280 1.8690 2.2830 2.5200 2.5200 2.2830 1.8690 1.3280 0.7611 0.2420 0.8244 0.934 0.958 0.967 0.972 0.974 0.974 0.972 0.967 0.958 0.934 0.8244

q ws rd (radians) (radians)

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6.007.00 7.008.00 8.009.00 9.0010.00 10.0011.00 11.0012.00 12.0013.00 13.0014.00 14.0015.00 15.0016.00 16.0017.00 17.0018.00

1.43 1.17 0.92 0.65 0.39 0.13 0.13 0.39 0.65 0.92 1.17 1.43

135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135

0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054

0.2287 0.7415 1.3024 1.8379 2.2492 2.4845 2.4845 2.2492 1.8379 1.3024 0.7415 0.2287

23.70 24.04 25.60 27.50 27.70 27.80 26.70 31.20 29.60 31.30 28.80 29.90

0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

0.6722 2.1800 3.5164 4.9625 6.1404 6.6337 6.8573 6.2754 5.2933 3.8290 2.1800 0.6722

409

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Fig. 1.

The energy output from a photovoltaic system.

rt and rd, respectively, cosqarray / cosqz is obtained for Eq. (13) and iarray is obtained from Eq. (12). Radiation data are given in Table 1. Now the hourly energy ow for the system parameter is given in Table 3. The values of iarray obtained from Table 2 are tabulated in Table 3 and used together with temperature-dependent h of Eq. (6). The efciency of power conditioning array output, hcQe, is calculated from Eq. (7). Temperature data are also obtained from Table 2. Then, this can be simulated and the simulation result is tabulated in Table 4. The energy output from a photovoltaic system is presented in Fig. 1. 4. Conclusion A method predicting energy conversion or performance of photovoltaic system in Malaysia is presented. The approach is suitable for hand calculation. For each month, simulations are examined for only one day. This method can be speeded up by using a spread sheet application. This method is suitable for primary evaluation of the average performance of photovoltaic system in Malaysia as well as in other countries. However, at the nal stage, intensive evaluation including technoeconomic analysis is necessary. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment for the nancial support under IRPA Grant No. 02-02-02-0005-PR23/11-10.

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References
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