Envisioning Future Climate Conditions in the Philippines: An Analysis of General Circulation Models based on the Special Report on Emissions

Scenarios
E. R. Castillo and J.T. Villarin, S.J. Climate Studies Division, Manila Observatory Ateneo de Manila Campus, Loyola Heights, Q. C. ella@observatory.ph, jett@admu.edu.ph

Abstract
General Circulation Model based on the Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios are downscaled in order to determine future possible climate conditions in the Philippines.

1. Introduction
Climate change is inevitable. Even before man has inhabited the earth, temperature has risen and descended through the centuries. With the change in temperature, precipitation and other climatic parameters changed as well. This is all a natural cycle which the earth goes through every thousands of years. Greenhouse gases, ever present in our atmosphere, maintains the temperature so that man and other organisms can live. However, with the advent of the Industrial Revolution during the 1800's, man has been a significant part in this climate cycle. The emissions from industries, transportation, agricultural lands, among other things, have increased the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, so that the natural warming is enhanced. The rapid change in technology continues to send out other emissions that may stay in the atmosphere for another 50 or 100 years. The projection for global increase in temperature is from 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius for the 21st century. However, climate change is not uniform throughout the globe. These changes may be dependent on such factors as each region's unique microclimate, topography, prevailing force, and its latitudinal properties. The study of regional circulations and perturbations still remains largely unexplored. However, it is at this level where the changes in climate will be most felt. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments will have to be done on a local/regional basis. Therefore, visualization of the possible range of climate change on a local/regional is needed to aid policy makers in making the necessary adaptation measures.

The developed countries have developed several General Circulation Models (GCMs) based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) conceptualized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SRES is a set of scenarios wherein projections of non-climatic events, such as changes in demography, socio-economic conditions, and technology, are translated into emission, which in turn affect the climate. Four sets of scenarios are developed. These are the A1, A2, B1, and B2. A schematic presentation of these scenarios is shown in Fig. 1. No probability is assigned to any one scenario; however, based on the underlying themes, the scenarios arranged according to conservatism of emissions (and subsequent effect on climate change) are B1, B2, A1, and A2, with B1 as the most conservative.

Figure 1 Schematic representation of the four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios As a developing country, the Philippines lacks the capability and manpower to develop its own Regional Climate Models. Data will have to be downscaled from the results of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Three different models were studied, among these are those developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM3), Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCC). These are based on the Special Reports on Emissions Sce-

narios (SRES), a set of scenarios wherein projections of non-climatic events, such as changes in demography, socio-economic conditions, and technology, are quantified and translated into emissions, which in turn affect the climate.

2. Methodology
Gridded monthly projections of temperature and precipitation for the years 2001 to 2110 were acquired via the IPCC-DDC GCM Archive Gateway (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre) at http://ipccddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/dkrz/dkrz.htm. The monthly mean values for the years 1961-90, which serves as the baseline value for the different models were also acquired. Three models were studied. These are models developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM3), Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CGCM2ma). Time and computer resource limitations dictated that most models could only run A2 and B2 scenarios. The only model with a complete set of scenarios is the CSIRO model, so that projections and succeeding applications are limited to this model. The data acquired were then converted to a format that can be used for GrADS (Grid Analysis and Display System). Data for the Philippines was extracted. Climate conditions for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 were then computed by getting the average of thirty years centering on these years. So that, 2020 is the average from 2006 to 2035; 2050, average of the years 2036 to 2065, and 2080, the average of the years 2066 to 2095. Two climate variables, temperature and precipitation, are studied. These two are considered among the primary climate variables where secondary variables are derived. Conditions of these two variables and consequent changes determine the impacts on the different sectors, namely agriculture, water resources, health, and marine and coastal areas; so that changes directly affect the human dimension.

2.1 Projected Values 2.1.1 Temperature

The Philippines lies on the equatorial region, with present temperature values ranging from 20 to 25 Celsius. The baseline temperature trend in the country is one that does not vary greatly throughout the year. For this reason, separate analyses of temperature conditions during the dry and rainy season are not required. Instead, the temperature variance

focuses largely on the change in annual mean temperature. The study of change in annual mean temperature is important in envisioning future Philippine climate conditions. Change in temperature, aside from affecting secondary climate variables, also directly affects precipitation. Any sudden, long-term change in temperature can be expected to greatly affect the different sectors. Projections of temperature values were compared with the baseline temperature values of the different models to determine the projected change in temperature. 2.1.2 Precipitation The Philippines has two dominant seasons. The dry season occurs predominantly from the months of December to February. At this time of the year, flow pattern comes from the Northeast, bringing with it dry, cold wind. The Southwestern monsoon occurs from the months of June to August. This time of the year is considered the rainy season in most parts of the country. Precipitation conditions between these two seasons are significantly distinct. Establishment of the changes in the coming years is important to determine the extent of the preparation needed to these changes. Sectoral activities, such as agricultural planning, depend mainly on the occurrence, duration, and magnitude of these two seasons. Analysis of the projected changes of the different scenarios during the dry and rainy season was done. The projected climate conditions (average for 30 years) were compared with the baseline of each model. Percent change was obtained by subtracting these projected values from the base values, and dividing the result by the base value. The results of the different models were then compared to determine whether changes are scenario-based or model-based. 2.2 Baseline Climate models have its own assumptions about prevailing conditions in the area that it is studying. Global models, due to the size of its spatial and temporal coverage, have even more generalized premises in order to simplify computations. Thus, determining the models' limitations is important in finding out if it agrees with assumptions that can be applied to the Philippines. To illustrate; some models assume a flat terrain due to the ratio of the size of the Philippines on a global context. However, focusing on a smaller scale will prove that the Philippine's distinct topography is a major factor in its unique climate. Another important factor to consider is its ability to simulate present-day (baseline) climate conditions. Conformity of the baselines of the different models with finer-grid resolution baselines, such as the internationally established DDC baseline, is important in determining which model closely

simulates present-day conditions, and which is model is the most consistent. A direct comparison of the contour graphs of the DDC, and the models' baselines was done. For a more detailed analysis, the mean values over the area were calculated and compared with each other. For temperature, mean annual conditions were studied; while mean values during the two seasons (dry, December to February; and rainy, June to August) were compared.

the dry season. The other areas on the other hand, will experience a slight increase in rainfall, until the 2050's wherein rainfall seems to decrease throughout the country. Changes in precipitation for the rainy season of the HadCM model is shown in Figure 5.During the early part of the century, at 2020, most areas will experience only very slight changes in rainfall, except near the Southwestern Luzon region, where rainfall is projected to increase by 20 percent. During the year 2050 and 2080, however, the entire country will experience a significant increase in rainfall.

3. Results and Discussion

Temperature Average temperature conditions over the entire Philippines for the different models is shown in Fig. 2A. Based on the graph, the model which has the closest magnitude to the DDC baseline is the CCC model. However, this models proves to be inconsistent such that temperature is understated during the early part of the year, while it is overstated during the latter part of the year. The result is that this model incorrectly predicts the warmest month of the year during July. Both the CSIRO and the HadCM model overstate temperature throughout the year, though the model which follows similar pattern as the DDC is the CSIRO model. Projections of temperature for the CSIRO model for the A2 scenario is shown in Fig. 3a-c. The graphs confirm the long-term assumption that global warming will occur, and will accelerate in the 21st century. The CSIRO projects an almost uniform increase of 0.6 Celsius throughout the country from the baseline to 2020. An increase of about 0.5 will again occur from 2020 to 2050, while the rate of projected increase from 2050 to 2080 is 1 throughout the country. 3.2 Precipitation Baseline precipitation values of the different models and the DDC baseline are shown in Fig. 2B. Both the CSIRO and the CCC models show good correlation to the DDC baseline in terms of magnitude. However, these two models overstated precipitation during the dry season, and understate it during the rainy season. The result is that there is little variance in rainfall throughout the year. The HadCM model, on the other hand, overstates rainfall throughout the year. However, it proves to the most consistent model, such that rainfall trend of this model is similar to the DDC baseline. Changes in precipitation for the dry season of the HadCM model is shown in Fig. 4. Based on the figure, the area which seems to be the most affected is the Southwestern Luzon region, where rainfall is expected to continuously decrease throughout the century, where the decrease reaches up to 43 percent in 3.1

4. Conclusions
GCMs provide a whole range of temperature and precipitation change that can be expected in the next century. However, it is important to understand the limitations of the models in order to know how best to apply these models to Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Studies to the Philippine scenario. Among the different models studied, the CSIRO model, seems to be the best model to use for temperature studies. This model's baseline has the best correlation to the DDC baseline. For precipitation, the model with the baseline which has the best correspondence with the DDC baseline is the HadCM model. Temperature is expected to be warmer in the next century by as much as 2.4 C. For precipitation, the dry season is expected to get drier while the rainy season is projected to become rainier.

References
[1] T. R. Carter et al. "Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Clliamte Impact Assessment, Version 1." http://www.ipccddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru_data/support/guidance .pdf [2] M. Hulme et al. "Climate Change Scenarios for the Philippines." Climatic Research Unity, Norwich, UK. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/research/p hilippines.pdf [3] M. G. New et al. "Representing Twentieth Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology." J. Climate. 12, 829-856, 1999. [4] Working Group I, IPCC. 2001. Cliamte Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg1 [5] Working Group II, IPCC. 2000. Summary for Policymakers. IPCC Special Report: The

Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. http://ipcc.ch/pub/sr97.htm [6] Working Group III, IPCC. 2000. Summary for
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Policymakers. Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission

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Figure 2 Monthly Baseline values of the different models and the DDC for (a) temperature and (b) precipitation.

Figure 3 Projected change in temperature (in C) of the CSIRO model for the A2 scenario for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080.
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Figure 4 Projected change in precipitation (in percent) for the dry season (December to February) of the HadCM model for the A2 scenario for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080.
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Figure 5 Projected change in precipitation (in percent) for the rainy season (June to August) of the HadCM model for the A2 scenario for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080.