B CNG THNG

CNG HO X HI CH NGHA VIT NAM

CC IU TIT IN LC
S:

c lp - T do - Hnh phc H Ni, ngy 14 thng 03 nm 2013 QUYT NH

07 /Q-TL

Ban hnh Quy trnh d bo nhu cu ph ti in h thng in quc gia CC TRNG CC IU TIT IN LC Cn c Ngh nh s 95/2012/N-CP ngy 12 thng 11 nm 2012 ca Chnh ph quy nh chc nng, nhim v, quyn hn v c cu t chc ca B Cng Thng; Cn c Quyt nh s 153/2008/Q-TTg ngy 28 thng 11 nm 2008 ca Th tng Chnh ph v vic Quy nh chc nng, nhim v, quyn hn v c cu t chc ca Cc iu tit in lc thuc B Cng Thng; Cn c Thng t s 12/2010/TT-BCT ngy 15 thng 4 nm 2010 ca B Cng Thng Quy nh h thng in truyn ti; Theo ngh ca Trng phng Quy hoch v Gim st cn bng Cung cu, QUYT NH: iu 1: Ban hnh km theo Quyt nh ny Quy trnh d bo nhu cu ph ti in h thng in quc gia hng dn thc hin Thng t s 12/2010/TTBCT ngy 15 thng 4 nm 2010 ca B Cng Thng Quy nh h thng in truyn ti. iu 2: Quyt nh ny c hiu lc k t ngy k. iu 3: Chnh Vn phng Cc, cc Trng phng thuc Cc iu tit in lc, Tng gim c Tp on in lc Vit Nam, Gim c n v in lc v n v c lin quan chu trch nhim thi hnh Quyt nh ny./.

Ni nhn:
- B trng ( b/c); - Th trng L Dng Quang ( b/c); - Nh iu 3; - Lu VT, QHGS, PC.

CC TRNG

( k)

ng Huy Cng

B CNG THNG

CNG HA X HI CH NGHA VIT NAM

CC IU TIT IN LC

c lp - T do - Hnh phc H Ni, ngy 14 thng 03 nm 2013

QUY TRNH
D BO NHU CU PH TI IN H THNG IN QUC GIA (Ban hnh km theo Quyt nh s 07 /Q-TL ngy 14 thng 03 nm 2013 ca Cc trng Cc iu tit in lc) Chng I QUY NH CHUNG iu 1. Phm vi p dng Quy trnh ny quy nh nguyn tc, trnh t, th tc v phng php d bo nhu cu ph ti in h thng in quc gia lm c s lp k hoch u t pht trin h thng in quc gia, k hoch v phng thc vn hnh h thng in v vn hnh th trng in. iu 2. i tng p dng Quy trnh ny p dng cho cc n v sau: 1. n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in (Trung tm iu h thng in quc gia). 2. n v bn bun in (Cng ty Mua bn in). 3. n v phn phi in (cc Tng cng ty in lc). 4. n v truyn ti in (Tng cng ty Truyn ti in Quc gia). 5. Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t h thng in truyn ti. iu 3. Gii thch t ng 1. Gi H l gi hin ti.
2

2. H thng in l h thng cc trang thit b pht in, li in v cc trang thit b ph tr c lin kt vi nhau v c ch huy thng nht. 3. H thng in min l h thng in Min Bc, Min Trung hoc Min Nam. 4. Nm Y l nm hin ti. 5. Ngy D l ngy hin ti. 6. Qu Q l qu hin ti. 7. Thng M l thng hin ti. 8. Tun W l tun hin ti. Chng II NGUYN TC V PHNG PHP D BO NHU CU PH TI IN iu 1. Nguyn tc chung 1. D bo nhu cu ph ti in h thng in quc gia l d bo nhu cu cho ton b ph ti in c cung cp in t h thng in truyn ti, tr cc ph ti in c ngun cung cp in ring khng nhn in t h thng in quc gia. 2. D bo nhu cu ph ti in h thng in quc gia bao gm d bo nhu cu ph ti in nm, thng, tun, ngy v gi ti. iu 2. Trch nhim d bo nhu cu ph ti in 1. n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c trch nhim d bo nhu cu ph ti in ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min v ti tt c cc im u ni vi li in truyn ti theo trnh t quy nh t Ph lc 8 n Ph lc 11 Quy trnh ny. 2. n v phn phi in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti c trch nhim d bo v cung cp cho n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in s liu d bo v nhu cu ph ti in tng hp ca ton n v v nhu cu ph ti in ti tng im u ni vi li in truyn ti. 3. n v bn bun in c trch nhim cung cp cho n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in cc s liu v d bo nhu cu in xut, nhp khu thng qua li in truyn ti, trong bao gm d bo nhu cu in xut, nhp khu tng hp v ti tng im u ni vi li in truyn ti phc v xut nhp khu in. iu 3. Phng php d bo nhu cu ph ti in 1. Cc phng php d bo nhu cu ph ti in c s dng bao gm: a) Phng php ngoi suy;
3

b) Phng php hi quy; c) Phng php h s n hi; d) Phng php mng nron nhn to; ) Phng php tng quan - xu th; e) Phng php chuyn gia; g) Cc phng php khc. 2. Vic la chn phng php d bo nhu cu ph ti in phi xem xt cc yu t sau: a) Phng php c kh nng thc hin c vi cc s liu sn c; b) Phng php c kh nng phn tch cc yu t bt nh; c) m bo sai s thc t ca d bo nm trong gii hn quy nh ti iu 13 Quy trnh ny. iu 4. D bo nhu cu ph ti in theo phng php ngoi suy 1. Phng php ngoi suy thc hin d bo da trn s liu trong qu kh phn nh theo quy lut hm s f(t) nh sau:

Trong : - YDB l d bo in nng, cng sut ca nm ti (thng, tun, ngy, gi); - t l nm (thng, tun, ngy, gi) hin ti; - f(t+1) l hm s c xy dng t s liu qu kh ca in nng, cng sut. 2. S liu ph ti in qu kh s dng cho phng php ngoi suy a) i vi d bo nhu cu ph ti in nm: Cc s liu thng k v cng sut, in nng tiu th trong t nht 05 nm trc gn nht; b) i vi d bo nhu cu ph ti in thng: Cc s liu thng k v cng sut, in nng tiu th ca thng cng k nm trc v t nht 03 thng trc gn nht; c) i vi d bo nhu cu ph ti in tun: Cc s liu thng k v cng sut, in nng tiu th trong t nht 04 tun trc gn nht; d) i vi d bo nhu cu ph ti in ngy: Cc s liu thng k v cng sut, in nng tiu th trong t nht 07 ngy trc. Trng hp ngy l, tt phi s dng cc s liu ca cc ngy l, tt nm trc; ) i vi d bo nhu cu ph ti in gi: Cc s liu thng k v cng sut, in nng tiu th trong t nht 48 gi cng k tun trc.
4

iu 5. D bo nhu cu ph ti in theo phng php hi quy Phng php ny xc nh mi tng quan gia nhu cu tiu th in (cng sut, in nng) ca ph ti vi cc yu t nh hng quan trng (tng trng kinh t, gi in, thi tit, t gi). Mi tng quan ny c phn nh qua hai loi phng trnh nh sau: 1. Phng trnh dng tuyn tnh (1)

Trong : - n l s thng k qu kh (s nm, thng, tun, ngy); - a0, ai l cc h s; - Xi l s liu qu kh ca cc yu t nh hng quan trng (tng trng kinh t, gi in, thi tit, t gi); - Y l hm s in nng, cng sut ca nm (thng, tun, ngy, gi). 2. Phng trnh dng phi tuyn: (2) Trong : - n l s thng k qu kh (s nm, thng, tun, ngy); - a0, ai l cc h s; - Xi l s liu qu kh ca cc yu t nh hng quan trng (tng trng kinh t, gi in, thi tit, t gi); - Y l hm s in nng, cng sut ca nm (thng, tun, ngy, gi). Dng phng trnh 2 c th a v dng phng trnh 1 bng cch ly logarit 2 v. Vic la chn hm hi quy c tin hnh trn c s so snh cc h s tng quan, h s tng quan ca dng phng trnh no ln th chn dng phng trnh . iu 6. D bo nhu cu ph ti in theo phng php h s n hi Phng php ny xc nh mi tng quan gia nhu cu tiu th in (cng sut, in nng) ca ph ti vi tng trng kinh t (h s n hi gia nhu cu in v GDP, tng trng cng nghip, thng mi, h s tit kim nng lng...). Mi tng quan ny c th hin qua h s n hi nh sau:

(3)

Trong : - ET l h s n hi; - A% v Y% l tng trng ca in nng, cng sut v tng trng kinh t (h s n hi gia nhu cu in v GDP, tng trng cng nghip, thng mi...); - A l in nng, cng sut; - Y l s liu tng trng kinh t (h s n hi gia nhu cu in v GDP, tng trng cng nghip, thng mi, h s tit kim nng lng...). Cc h s n hi c xc nh theo tng ngnh kinh t, ton quc v tng min lnh th. Vic d bo nhu cu in nng ton quc c tng hp theo phng php t di ln (Bottom-up) t d bo nhu cu in nng cho cc ngnh kinh t, khu vc dn dng v t cc vng lnh th. iu 7. D bo nhu cu ph ti in theo phng php mng n-ron nhn to 1. Cu trc ca mng nron nhn to

Trong : - Pi l lp vo bao gm cc tn hiu u vo (nhit , m, ngy ngh hoc lm vic); b1

b3

b2

l lp n;

l lp ra;
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- d l hm s in nng, cng sut ngy, gi. Vic chn la s lng cc tn hiu u vo ph thuc vo bi ton c th v ch c th xc nh da trn nh gi nh hng ca cc yu t u vo v ph ti in. Kt qu u ra ph thuc vo cu trc ca mng nron v d liu qu kh. 2. Hun luyn mng nron c th m phng bi ton cn gii quyt, mng phi c hun luyn vi cc d liu mu iu chnh cc trng s cho ph hp. Khi hon thnh hun luyn, mng nron s to ra hm quan h gia nhu cu ph ti in vi cc yu t nh hng (nhit , m, ngy ngh hoc lm vic). iu 8. D bo nhu cu ph ti in theo phng php tng quanxu th Phng php ny xc nh mi tng quan gia nhu cu tiu th in (cng sut, in nng) ca ph ti vi cc yu t nh hng quan trng (tng trng kinh t, gi in, thi tit, t gi) v c thc hin trn nn Excel vi cc bc sau y: 1. D bo th ph ti gi ti i vi tng min, so snh cc biu ngy qu kh thu c vi biu ngy hin ti D tm c biu c hnh dng ging nht vi biu ngy D . Cch so snh c thc hin t ng vi hm:
Correl ( array1, array 2)

Vi thut ton sau:

Correl ( X , Y ) =

( x x )( y y ) ( x x ) ( y y )
2

Trong : - X l cng sut ph ti 24 gi thc t ca ngy D i ;

- x l cng sut trung bnh 24 gi thc t ca ngy D i ;

l cng sut trung bnh 24 gi d bo ca ngy D ;

- Y l cng sut ph ti 24 gi d bo ca ngy D . Hm Correl tr li kt qu l s tng quan gia hai bin mng X , Y . Nu bin mng X , Y cng ging nhau th kt qu ca hm Correl cng gn 1. Do vy sau khi so snh 21 ngy qu kh vi ngy hin ti D s tm c ngy c hnh dng ph ti ging nht vi ngy D , gi s ngy D i . i vi tng min, s dng hm xu th d bo cng sut ph ti cho 04 gi ti (t gi H n gi H + 3 ) vi hm FORECAST v c php lnh sau:
FORECAST ( x, known _ y ' s, known _ x' s )

Trong :
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- x - known _ y ' s
D i ;

l cng sut ph ti gi H 1 ; l cng sut ph ti 05 gi qu kh k t gi H 1 ca ngy l cng sut ph ti 05 gi qu kh k t gi H 1 ca ngy

- known _ x' s
D.

2. So snh th ph ti d bo vi th ph ti qu kh Sau khi c th ph ti d bo tng min cho 04 gi ti, tin hnh so snh th ph ti ny vi th ph ti qu kh tng min theo cc gi tr Correl t cao n thp (so snh biu qu kh c dng ging nht ri n cc biu qu kh t ging hn). Qu trnh so snh ny x l cc s liu ph ti qu kh c th b sai do ct ti, do li SCADA (khng thu thp c cc s liu ph ti qu kh). 3. Hiu chnh li th ph ti Sau khi so snh th ph ti d bo vi th ph ti qu kh v th ph ti hin ti, nu hm Correl cho kt qu < 0,9 th cho php nhn cc kt qu tng ng vi h s chuyn gia hchuyen_gia theo quy nh: 0,9 hchuyen _ gia 1,1 . iu 9. D bo nhu cu ph ti in theo phng php chuyn gia Trong trng hp c nhiu yu t khng n nh th s dng phng php chuyn gia c tham kho kin ca hi ng t vn. Vic ly kin c tin hnh theo cc bc sau: 1. Chuyn gia cho im theo tng tiu chun. Mi tiu chun c mt thang im thng nht. 2. Ly trng s ca cc kin ca hi ng t vn tng hp. iu 10. Sai s d bo ph ti 1. Sai s tnh ton (sai s tng i) l cc sai s mang tnh cht h thng khi xy dng m hnh tnh ton v c mi lin quan n cc i lng trong m hnh ton. 2. Sai s thc t (sai s tuyt i) l sai s gia kt qu d bo v thc t, c quy nh nh sau: a) D bo ph ti nm, thng, tun: sai s trong gii hn 3%; b) D bo ph ti ngy, gi: sai s trong gii hn 2%. Chng III TRNH T, TH TC D BO NHU CU PH TI IN Mc 1
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D BO NHU CU PH TI IN NM iu 1. S liu u vo 1. Cho 02 nm u tin a) S liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tng thng v in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti bao gm: - S liu ti tng trm bin p 110kV; - S liu tng hp ca ton n v. b) D bo biu phu tai ngy in hinh ca ngy lm vic, ngy Th By, Ch Nht tng thng, cc ngy l v ngy c cc s kin c bit ca n v phn phi in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti; c) S liu d bo v in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu tng thng ca cc nh my in c cng sut t t 30 MW tr xung u ni vo li in phn phi ca n v phn phi in; d) S liu d bo nhu cu in xut, nhp khu tng thng gm in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu v biu ph ti ngy in hnh ti cc im u ni vo li in truyn ti do n v bn bun in cung cp. Chi tit cc s liu u vo d bo nhu cu ph ti in cho 02 nm u tin c quy nh ti Ph lc 1A, Ph lc 2, Ph lc 3, Ph lc 4A Quy trnh ny. 2. Cho 03 nm tip theo a) S liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tng nm gm in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca n v phn phi in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti; b) D bo biu phu tai ngy in hinh ca ngy lm vic, ngy Th By, Ch Nht ca tng nm, cc ngy l v ngy c cc s kin c bit ca n v phn phi in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti; c) S liu v d bo in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu tng nm ca cc nh my in c cng sut t t 30 MW tr xung u ni vo li in phn phi ca n v phn phi in; d) S liu v d bo nhu cu in xut, nhp khu tng nm gm in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu, biu ph ti ngy in hnh ti cc im u ni vo li in truyn ti do n v bn bun in cung cp. Chi tit cc s liu u vo d bo nhu cu ph ti in cho 03 nm
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tip theo c quy nh ti Ph lc 1B, Ph lc 2, Ph lc 3, Ph lc 4B Quy trnh ny. 3. Cc yu t khc cn xem xt: a) Tc tng trng kinh t (GDP); b) S liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in v h s ph ti in nm theo quy hoch pht trin in lc quc gia v cc a phng c ph duyt; c) S liu thng k v in nng, cng sut thc t ca t nht 05 qu kh gn nht ca n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti; d) S liu thng k v in nng, cng sut xut, nhp khu thc t ca t nht 05 qu kh gn nht do n v bn bun in cung cp; ) Cc gii php v tit kim nng lng v qun l nhu cu in; e) Cc kt qu thc hin nghin cu ph ti in; g) Hm xu th ca cc s liu thng k theo cc yu t lin quan (GDP, thi tit); h) Nhng thng tin cn thit khc. iu 2. Trnh t thc hin 1. Trc ngy 01 thng 8 hng nm (nm Y), n v phn phi in, n v bn bun in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti c trch nhim gi cho n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in cc s liu v d bo nhu cu ph ti in theo quy nh khon 1 v khon 2 iu 14 Quy trnh ny. Trng hp n v phn phi in, n v bn bun in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti khng gi s liu ng thi hn quy nh, n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c quyn s dng s liu v d bo nhu cu ph ti in nm trc (nm Y-1) d bo nhu cu ph ti in cho cc nm tip theo. 2. Trc ngy 01 thng 9 hng nm (nm Y), n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c trch nhim tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in cho 02 nm tip theo (nm Y+1 v nm Y+2) v cho 03 nm tip theo (nm Y+3, nm Y+4 v nm Y+5) theo trnh t sau: a) Phn tch, nh gi sai s gia kt qu d bo v ph ti in thc t nm trc (nm Y-1) theo quy nh ti khon 2 iu 13 Quy trnh ny; b) Cp nht, hiu chnh s liu v d bo nhu cu ph ti in do cc n v cung cp trn c s xem xt cc yu t quy nh ti khon 3 iu 14 Quy trnh ny;
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c) La chn phng php d bo theo quy nh ti iu 6 Quy trnh ny tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in; d) Hon thnh tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in theo quy nh ti iu 16 Quy trnh ny v cng b trn trang thng tin in t ca th trng in. Trnh t thc hin tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in nm c quy nh ti Ph lc 8 Quy trnh ny. iu 3. Kt qu d bo Kt qu d bo nhu cu ph ti in nm ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min, tng n v phn phi in, n v bn bun in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti bao gm cc ni dung sau: 1. Cho 02 nm u tin a) in nng, cng sut cc i v cng sut cc tiu tng thng theo quy nh ti Ph lc 5A Quy trnh ny; b) Biu phu tai in hinh ngy lm vic, ngy Th By, Ch Nht ca tng thng, cc ngy l v ngy c cc s kin c bit theo quy nh ti Ph lc 3 Quy trnh ny. 2. Cho 03 nm tip theo a) in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu tng nm theo quy nh ti Ph lc 5B Quy trnh ny; b) Biu phu tai in hinh ngy lm vic, ngy Th By, Ch Nht ca tng nm, cc ngy l v ngy c cc s kin c bit theo quy nh ti Ph lc 3 Quy trnh ny. Mc 2 D BO NHU CU PH TI IN THNG iu 4. S liu u vo 1. S liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tng tun v in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti bao gm: a) S liu ti tng trm bin p 110kV; b) S liu tng hp ca ton n v. 2. D bo biu phu tai ngy in hinh ca ngy lm vic, ngy Th By, Ch Nht tng tun, cc ngy l v ngy c cc s kin c bit ca n v phn phi in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti. 3. S liu d bo v in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu tng tun ca cc nh my in c cng sut t t 30 MW tr xung u ni vo
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li in phn phi ca n v phn phi in. 4. S liu d bo nhu cu in xut, nhp khu tng tun gm in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu v biu ph ti ngy in hnh ti cc im u ni vo li in truyn ti do n v bn bun in cung cp. Chi tit cc s liu u vo d bo nhu cu ph ti in cc tun ca thng ti c quy nh ti Ph lc 1C, Ph lc 2, Ph lc 3, Ph lc 4C Quy trnh ny. iu 5. Trnh t thc hin 1. Trc ngy 20 hng thng, n v phn phi in, n v bn bun in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti c trch nhim gi cho n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in cc s liu v d bo nhu cu ph ti in thng ti theo quy nh ti iu 17 Quy trnh ny. Trng hp n v phn phi in, n v bn bun in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti khng gi s liu ng thi hn quy nh, n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c quyn s dng s liu v d bo nhu cu ph ti in nm trc d bo ph ti nhu cu ph ti in. 2. Trc ngy 25 hng thng (thng M), n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c trch nhim tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in cho thng ti (thng M+1) theo trnh t sau: a) Phn tch, nh gi sai s gia kt qu d bo v ph ti in thc thng trc theo quy nh ti khon 2 iu 13 Quy trnh ny; b) La chn phng php d bo theo quy nh ti iu 6 Quy trnh ny tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in; c) Hon thnh tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in cho thng ti theo quy nh ti iu 19 Quy trnh ny v cng b trn trang thng tin in t ca th trng in. Trnh t thc hin tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in thng c quy nh chi tit ti Ph lc 9 Quy trnh ny. iu 6. Kt qu d bo Kt qu d bo nhu cu ph ti in thng ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min, tng n v phn phi in, n v bn bun in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti bao gm cc ni dung sau: 1. in nng, cng sut cc i v cng sut cc tiu tng tun ca thng ti theo quy nh ti Ph lc 5C Quy trnh ny. 2. Biu phu tai in hinh ngy lm vic, ngy Th By, Ch Nht ca tng tun, cc ngy l v ngy c cc s kin c bit theo quy nh ti Ph lc
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3 Quy trnh ny. Mc 3 D BO NHU CU PH TI IN TUN iu 1. La chn phng php d bo D bo nhu cu ph ti in tun ti c thc hin bng phng php mng nron nhn to theo quy nh ti iu 10 Quy trnh ny. iu 2. S liu u vo 1. Cho tun u tin (tun W+1) a) S liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tng ngy v in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti bao gm: - S liu ti tng trm bin p 110kV; - S liu tng hp ca ton n v. b) D bo biu phu tai tng ngy ca n v phn phi in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti; Chi tit cc s liu u vo d bo nhu cu ph ti in cc ngy ca tun u tin c quy nh ti Ph lc 1D, Ph lc 3 Quy trnh ny. 2. Cho 07 tun tip theo (t tun W+2 n tun W+8) a) S liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tng tun v in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti bao gm: - S liu ti tng trm bin p 110kV; - S liu tng hp ca ton n v. b) D bo biu phu tai ngy in hinh tng tun ca n v phn phi in, Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti. Chi tit cc s liu u vo d bo nhu cu ph ti in cc ngy ca tun c quy nh ti Ph lc 1C, Ph lc 3 Quy trnh ny. 3. Cc s liu thng k trong qu kh a) in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min trong 04 tun trc gn nht; b) Tnh hnh thi tit (nhit , m, lng ma) trong 04 tun trc gn nht ca ba min (Bc, Trung, Nam). 4. D bo thi tit ngy ca ba min (Bc, Trung, Nam) cho 08 tun ti.
13

5. Cc ngy l, Tt v ngy c cc s kin c bit c th gy bin ng ln n nhu cu ph ti in trong 08 tun ti. 6. Kt qu nh gi sai s d bo nhu cu ph ti in tun trc (mc sai s, nguyn nhn gy sai s). iu 3. Trnh t thc hin 1. Trc 8h00 ngy th Ba hng tun (tun W), n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti c trch nhim cung cp cho n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in: a) D bo nhu cu ph ti in theo quy nh ti khon 1 v khon 2 iu 21 Quy trnh ny. Trng hp n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti khng gi s liu ng thi hn quy nh, n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c quyn s dng s liu v d bo nhu cu ph ti in tun trc (tun W-1) d bo nhu cu ph ti in cho cc tun tip theo; b) Thng k nhu cu ph ti in tng hp ca ton n v v nhu cu ph ti ti tng trm bin p 110kV trong tun trc (tun W-1). 2. Trc 15h00 ngy th Nm hng tun, n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c trch nhim tnh ton, d bo ph ti nhu cu ph ti in tun theo trnh t sau: a) Phn tch, nh gi sai s gia kt qu d bo v ph ti in thc tun trc theo quy nh ti khon 2 iu 13 Quy trnh ny; b) Cp nht d bo thi tit (nhit , m, lng ma) ca ba min (Bc, Trung, Nam) t cc trang web d bo thi tit v bn tin d bo thi tit ca Trung tm d bo kh tng thy vn trung ng; c) Tin hnh hun luyn mng nron nhn to theo trnh t sau: - Chn mu ph ti in: Ph ti in ca tun c ly lm mu phi ph hp vi ph ti in tun cn d bo, c c im v thi tit, thi gian tng t nh tun cn d bo (th trong tun, ngy l tt, ngy c s kin vn ho, chnh tr ln). Ph ti in ca tun c ly lm mu khng c c nhng bin ng ln (ph ti in gim t bin do thiu ngun, khng ch sn lng ph ti). Trng hp xy ra khng ch cng sut, ph ti in c ly lm mu phi c hiu chnh theo nguyn tc quy nh ti 6 Quy trnh ny; - Hun luyn mng nron nhn to: Mng nron nhn to c hun luyn theo cc d liu u vo ca mu ph ti in. Kt qu sau khi kt thc hun luyn l tp hp cc h s trng lng ng vi tp hp d liu u vo dng hun luyn mng nron nhn to. Cc h s trng lng ny phn nh s nh hng ca tng d liu u vo (nhit , m) ln cc s liu ph ti in tng ng.
14

d) D bo in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min cho tng ngy i vi tun ti (tun W+1) v tng tun i vi 07 tun tip theo (t tun W+2 n tun W+8) da trn m hnh mng nron nhn to vi cc thng s va c c trong qu trnh hun luyn v d bo thi tit va c cp nht; ) Hiu chnh kt qu d bo in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu nu nhn thy kt qu cha hp l; e) Xy dng biu ph ti h thng in quc gia, h thng in min vi cng sut ca 24 gi cho tng ngy ca tun ti (tun W+1) theo quy nh ti Ph lc 7 Quy trnh ny; g) Hon thnh tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in tun theo quy nh ti iu 23 Quy trnh ny v cng b trn trang thng tin in t ca th trng in. Trnh t thc hin tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in tun c quy nh ti Ph lc 10 Quy trnh ny. iu 4. Kt qu d bo Kt qu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tun ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min, tng n v phn phi in v Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti bao gm cc ni dung sau: 1. Cho tun u tin a) in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu tng ngy theo quy nh ti Ph lc 5D Quy trnh ny; b) Biu ph ti tng ngy. 2. Cho 07 tun tip theo a) in nng, cng sut cc i v cng sut cc tiu tng tun theo quy nh ti Ph lc 5C Quy trnh ny; b) Biu phu tai in hinh ngy lm vic, ngy Th By, Ch Nht ca tng tun, cc ngy l v ngy c cc s kin c bit theo quy nh ti Ph lc 3 Quy trnh ny. Mc 4 D BO NHU CU PH TI IN NGY iu 1. La chn phng php d bo D bo nhu cu ph ti in ngy ti c thc hin bng phng php mng nron nhn to theo quy nh ti iu 10 Quy trnh ny. iu 2. S liu u vo
15

1. Cc s liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tng ngy ca d bo tun cng b. 2. Cc s liu thng k trong qu kh: a) in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min trong 07 ngy trc gn nht. Trng hp ngy l, tt phi s dng cc s liu ca cc ngy l tt nm trc; b) Tnh hnh thi tit (nhit , m, lng ma) trong 07 ngy trc gn nht ca ba min (Bc, Trung, Nam). 3. D bo thi tit cc ngy ti ca ba min (Bc, Trung, Nam). 4. Cc ngy l, Tt v ngy c cc s kin c bit c th gy bin ng ln n nhu cu ph ti in cc ngy ti. 5. Kt qu nh gi sai s d bo nhu cu ph ti in ngy trc (mc sai s, nguyn nhn gy sai s ). iu 3. Trnh t thc hin Trc 9h00 hng ngy, n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c trch nhim tnh ton, d bo ph ti nhu cu ph ti in ngy theo trnh t sau: 1. Phn tch, nh gi sai s gia kt qu d bo v ph ti in thc ngy trc theo quy nh ti khon 2 iu 13 Quy trnh ny. 2. Cp nht d bo thi tit (nhit , m, lng ma) ca ba min (Bc, Trung, Nam) t cc trang web d bo thi tit v bn tin d bo thi tit ca Trung tm d bo kh tng thy vn trung ng. 3. Tin hnh hun luyn mng nron nhn to theo trnh t sau: a) Chn mu ph ti in: Ph ti in ngy c ly lm mu phi ph hp vi ph ti in ngy cn d bo, c c im v thi tit, thi gian tng t nh ngy cn d bo (th trong tun, ngy l tt, ngy c s kin vn ho, chnh tr ln ). Ph ti in ca ngy c ly lm mu khng c c nhng bin ng ln (ph ti in gim t bin do thiu ngun, khng ch sn lng ph ti ). Trng hp xy ra khng ch cng sut, ph ti in c ly lm mu phi c hiu chnh theo nguyn tc quy nh ti 6 Quy trnh ny; b) Hun luyn mng nron nhn to: Mng nron nhn to c hun luyn theo cc d liu u vo ca mu ph ti in. Kt qu sau khi kt thc hun luyn l tp hp cc h s trng lng ng vi tp hp d liu u vo dng hun luyn mng nron nhn to. Cc h s trng lng ny phn nh s nh hng ca tng d liu u vo (nhit , m) ln cc s liu ph ti in tng ng. 4. D bo in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min cho ngy ti da trn m hnh mng nron
16

nhn to vi cc thng s va c c trong qu trnh hun luyn v d bo thi tit va c cp nht. 5. Hiu chnh kt qu d bo in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu nu nhn thy kt qu cha hp l. 6. Xy dng biu ph ti h thng in quc gia, h thng in min vi cng sut ca 24 gi cho tng ngy ca tun ti (tun W+1) theo quy nh ti Ph lc 7 Quy trnh ny. 7. Hon thnh tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in ngy ti theo quy nh ti iu 27 Quy trnh ny v cng b trn trang thng tin in t ca th trng in. Trnh t thc hin tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in ngy ti c quy nh ti Ph lc 11 Quy trnh ny. iu 4. Kt qu d bo Kt qu d bo nhu cu ph ti in ngy ti ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min bao gm cc ni dung sau: 1. in nng, cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu. 2. Biu ph ti in ngy. Mc 5 D BO NHU CU PH TI IN GI iu 1. La chn phng php d bo D bo nhu cu ph ti in gi ti c thc hin bng phng php tng quan - xu th theo quy nh ti iu 11 Quy trnh ny. iu 2. S liu u vo 1. Cc s liu d bo nhu cu ph ti in tng gi ca d bo ngy cng b. 2. Cc s liu cng sut, in nng thc t ca h thng in trong 48 gi cng k tun trc. 3. D bo thi tit ti thi im gn nht. 4. Cc thng tin cn thit khc. iu 3. Trnh t thc hin Trc pht th 50 hng gi, n v vn hnh h thng in v th trng in c trch nhim tnh ton, d bo ph ti nhu cu ph ti in gi ti theo trnh t sau:
17

1. Thu thp d liu cn thit phc v tnh ton, d bo ph ti nhu cu ph ti in gi ti. 2. Hon thnh tnh ton, d bo nhu cu ph ti in gi ti theo quy nh ti iu 31 Quy trnh ny v cng b trn trang thng tin in t ca th trng in. iu 4. Kt qu d bo Kt qu d bo nhu cu ph ti in gi ti ca h thng in quc gia, h thng in min bao gm cng sut cc i trong gi ti v 03 gi tip theo./. CC TRNG
( k)

ng Huy Cng

18

Ph lc 1A NHU CU PH TI IN CA N V PHN PHI IN, KHCH HNG S DNG IN NHN IN TRC TIP T LI IN TRUYN TI CHO 02 NM U TIN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Nhu cu ph ti in ca n v phn phi in
Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

II. Nhu cu ph ti in ti cc trm 110kV thuc n v phn phi in

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

III. Nhu cu ph ti in ca Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

19

Ph lc 1B NHU CU PH TI IN CA N V PHN PHI IN, KHCH HNG S DNG IN NHN IN TRC TIP T LI IN TRUYN TI CHO 03 NM TIP THEO (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Nhu cu ph ti in ca n v phn phi in
Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

II. Nhu cu ph ti in ti cc trm 110kV thuc n v phn phi in

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

III. Nhu cu ph ti in ca Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

20

Ph lc 1C NHU CU PH TI IN CA N V PHN PHI IN, KHCH HNG S DNG IN NHN IN TRC TIP T LI IN TRUYN TI TNG TUN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Nhu cu ph ti in ca n v phn phi in
Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

II. Nhu cu ph ti in ti cc trm 110kV thuc n v phn phi in

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

III. Nhu cu ph ti in ca Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

21

Ph lc 1D NHU CU PH TI IN CA N V PHN PHI IN, KHCH HNG S DNG IN NHN IN TRC TIP T LI IN TRUYN TI TNG NGY TRONG TUN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Nhu cu ph ti in ca n v phn phi in
Cc ngy ca Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

II. Nhu cu ph ti in ti cc trm 110kV thuc n v phn phi in

Cc ngy ca Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

III. Nhu cu ph ti in ca Khch hng s dng in nhn in trc tip t li in truyn ti

Cc ngy ca Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

22

Ph lc 2 IN MUA T CC NH MY IN NH DI 30MW U NI VO LI IN PHN PHI CA N V PHN PHI IN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. in mua t cc nh my nh di 30MW u ni vo li in phn phi ca n v phn phi in cho 02 nm u tin
Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

II. in mua t cc nh my nh di 30MW u ni vo li in phn phi ca n v phn phi in cho 03 nm tip theo
Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

III. in mua t cc nh my nh di 30MW u ni vo li in phn phi ca n v phn phi in cho cc tun

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

23

Ph lc 3 S LIU BIU PH TI IN NGY IN HNH (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia)

Gi Cng sut (MW)

......

22

23

24

24

Ph lc 4A NHU CU IN XUT, NHP KHU CHO 02 NM U TIN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Nhu cu in nhp khu ton h thng
Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

II. Nhu cu in xut khu ton h thng

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

III. Nhu cu in nhp khu ti cc im u ni vi li in truyn ti

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

IV. Nhu cu in xut khu ti cc im u ni vi li in truyn ti

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

25

Ph lc 4B NHU CU IN XUT, NHP KHU CHO 03 NM TIP THEO (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia)

I. Nhu cu in nhp khu ton h thng

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

II. Nhu cu in xut khu ton h thng

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

III. Nhu cu in nhp khu ti cc im u ni vi li in truyn ti

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

IV. Nhu cu in xut khu ti cc im u ni vi li in truyn ti

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

26

Ph lc 4C NHU CU IN XUT, NHP KHU TNG TUN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Nhu cu in nhp khu ton h thng
Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

II. Nhu cu in xut khu ton h thng

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

III. Nhu cu in nhp khu ti cc im u ni vi li in truyn ti

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

IV. Nhu cu in xut khu ti cc im u ni vi li in truyn ti

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng ma kh (GWh) A 6 thng ma ma (GWh) A c nm (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

Ph lc 5A
27

KT QU D BO PH TI IN CHO 02 NM U TIN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Ph ti in h thng in quc gia
Thng Pmax MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

II. Ph ti in h thng in min (Bc/Trung/Nam)

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

III. Ph ti in ca n v phn phi in

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

IV. in xut khu ton h thng

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

V. in nhp khu ton h thng

Thng Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Athng (GWh) T01 T02 T03 T04 T05 T06 T07 T08 T09 T10 T11 T12

28

Ph lc 5B KT QU D BO PH TI IN CHO 03 NM TIP THEO (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Ph ti in h thng in quc gia
Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

II. Ph ti in h thng in min (Bc/Trung/Nam)

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

III. Ph ti in ca n v phn phi in

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm Y+3 Nm Y+4 Nm Y+5

IV. in xut khu ton h thng

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm N+3 Nm N+4 Nm N+5

V. in nhp khu ton h thng

Nm Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A 6 thng u nm(GWh) A 6 thng cui nm(GWh) A c nm(GWh) Nm N+3 Nm N+4 Nm N+5

29

Ph lc 5C KT QU D BO PH TI IN TNG TUN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Ph ti in h thng in quc gia
Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

II. Ph ti in h thng in min (Bc/Trung/Nam)

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

III. Ph ti in ca n v phn phi in

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

IV. in xut khu ton h thng

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

V. in nhp khu ton h thng

Tun Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A cc ngy lm vic (GWh) A Th 7 v Ch nht (GWh) A tun (GWh) Tun W+1 Tun W+2 Tun W+

30

Ph lc 5D KT QU D BO PH TI IN TNG NGY CA TUN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) I. Ph ti in h thng in quc gia
Ngy Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

II. Ph ti in h thng in min (Bc/Trung/Nam)

Ngy Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

III. Ph ti in ca n v phn phi in

Ngy Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

IV. in xut khu ton h thng

Ngy Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

V. in nhp khu ton h thng

Ngy Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) A ngy (GWh) Th 2 Th Ch nht

31

Ph lc 6 HIU CHNH MU PH TI IN KHI C KHNG CH CNG SUT (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) 1. Nguyn tc hiu chnh Vic hiu chnh ph ti mu khi c lnh khng ch cng sut c thc hin theo nguyn tc sau: a) Vic hiu chnh ph ti mu c thc hin trn ph ti tng min da trn lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton tng gi ca min trong khong thi gian c lnh khng ch cng sut; b) Lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton ca tng min c tnh nh sau: Trong trng hp lnh khng ch cng sut c p dng ring cho tng min, lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton ca min c tnh bng lnh khng ch cng sut nhn vi h s khng ch ph ti thc t ca min : Pkc = k kc .Lkc (1a ) Trong trng hp lnh khng ch cng sut c p dng cho ton b h thng in Quc gia, lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton ca min c tnh bng lnh khng ch cng sut nhn vi h s phn b lnh khng ch theo min v h s khng ch ph ti thc t ca min : Pkc = k kc .k pb .Lkc (1b ) c) Lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton ca tng min c quy i theo biu ph ti mu ca min tnh ra lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton tng gi ca min trong khong thi gian c lnh khng ch cng sut:
i Pkc = Pkc . i Pm Pmmax

( 2)

d) Tnh ton ph ti hiu chnh ca tng min c tnh n lng ph ti khng ch tng ng ca min trong tng gi:
i i Phc = P i + Pkc

( 3)

Trong : P kc

: Lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton ca tng min.

- Lkc : Lnh khng ch cng sut (tng min hoc ton h thng in Quc gia). - k kc : H s khng ch ph ti thc t ca tng min, c trng cho tnh hnh chp hnh lnh khng ch ph ti ca cc cp iu . k pb

: H s phn b lnh khng ch theo min.

32

chn. -

i P kc

: Lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton ca tng min ti gi i . Cng sut ph ti ti gi i trong biu ph ti mu c : Cng sut ph ti ti a ca biu ph ti mu c chn.

i P m :

max Pm
i

- Phc : Cng sut ph ti hiu chnh ca tng min c tnh n lng ph ti khng ch trong gi i . Pi

: Cng sut ph ti ghi nhn ca tng min trong gi i .

2. Trnh t hiu chnh ph ti a) Xc nh lnh khng ch cng sut ( Lkc ) v khong thi gian p dng lnh khng ch cng sut ca Min Bc; b) Xc nh lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton ca Min Bc theo cng thc (1a ) hoc (1b ) ; c) Chn biu ph ti mu ca Min Bc lm c s xc nh lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton tng gi. Biu ph ti mu c chn phi c dng iu in hnh, c trng cho biu ph ti ca Min Bc trong giai on hin ti, phi ph hp vi ngy cn d bo (th trong tun, ngy l tt, ngy c s kin vn ho, chnh tr ln ). Ngy c ly lm mu khng c c nhng bin ng ln v ph ti (ph ti tiu th in gim t bin do thiu ngun, iu ha ph ti); d) Xc nh lng ph ti khng ch tnh ton tng gi ca Min Bc trong khong thi gian c lnh khng ch cng sut theo cng thc ( 2) ; ) Tnh ton ph ti hiu chnh ca tng min c tnh n lng ph ti khng ch tng ng ca min trong tng gi theo cng thc (3) ; e) Lp li cc bc tnh ton a, b, c, d, cho Min Trung v Min Nam.

33

Ph lc 7 NGUYN TC XY DNG BIU PH TI T CNG SUT CC I, CNG SUT CC TIU V IN NNG TIU TH (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) 1. Nguyn tc xy dng biu Vic xy dng biu ph ti t cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu v in nng tiu th ngy c thc hin theo cc nguyn tc sau: a) Biu ph ti d bo phi c xy dng cho tng min. Biu ph ti h thng in quc gia c xy dng bng cch cng biu ph ti tng min ca tng gi tng ng; b) Biu ph ti d bo phi c cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu, in nng tiu th ngy ca mt min bng ng cng sut cc i, cng sut cc tiu v in nng tiu th ngy ca min c d bo trc :
db Pmin = min Pi db
db Pmax i

( ) = max( P )
db
24 i =1

A db = Pi db
db

c) Biu ph ti d bo ( Pi ) ca mt min phi c dng iu ging m vi dng iu ca biu ph ti mu ( Pi ) ca min ; d) Cng sut d bo ti gi i ca mt min c coi l c quan h hm bc hai vi cng sut gi i ca ngy ly mu ca cng min :
Pi db = a. Pi m

( )

+ b.Pi m + c

(1)

Trong : db - Pmax : Cng sut cc i d bo;

db - Pmin : Cng sut cc tiu d bo;

A db

: in nng tiu th d bo; : Cng sut cc i ca ngy ly mu; Cng sut gi i ca ngy ly mu; Cng sut d bo ti gi i ;
Pi db

m max

m - Pmin : Cng sut cc tiu ca ngy ly mu;

Pi m : Pi db :

- a , b , c : Cc h s ca hm bc hai biu din quan h ca

34

Pi m

. Cc h s ny c gii ra t h phng trnh sau:

db m 2 m Pmin = a. Pmin + b.Pmin +c db m 2 m Pmax = a. Pmax + b.Pmax + c 24 24 db m 2 A = a . P + b . Pi m + 24.c i i =1 i =1

( )

( (

) )

( )

Hoc
Da a = D Db b= D Dc c= D db m Pmin Pmin db m Da = Pmax Pmax 24 A db Pi m i =1 m 2 db Pmin Pmin m 2 db Db = Pmax Pmax 24 2 Pi m A db i =1 m 2 m Pmin Pmin m 2 m Pmax Dc = Pmax 24 24 m 2 Pi Pi m i =1 i =1 m 2 m Pmin Pmin m 2 m Pmax D = Pmax 24 24 m 2 P Pi m i i =1 i =1

1 1 24 1 1 24
db Pmin db Pmax

( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( 2)

( ) ( ) ( )

( )

A db 1 1 24

( ) ( ) ( )

( )

2. Trnh t xy dng biu a) Cp nht cc gi tr cng sut cc i ( Pmax ), cng sut cc tiu ( Pmin ) v in nng tiu th ngy ( A ) ca Min Bc d bo c t m hnh mng nron nhn to trc ;
db

db

db

35

b) Chn biu ph ti mu cho Min Bc. Biu ph ti mu c chn phi c dng iu in hnh, c trng cho biu ph ti ca Min Bc trong giai on hin ti, phi ph hp vi ngy cn d bo (th trong tun, ngy l tt, ngy c s kin vn ho, chnh tr ln ). Ngy c ly lm mu khng c c nhng bin ng ln v ph ti (ph ti tiu th in gim t bin do thiu ngun, iu ha ph ti ); c) Tnh cc h s m t hm quan h gia cng sut d bo tng gi ( Pi m ) vi cng sut mu ca gi tng ng ( Pi ) ca Min Bc a , b , c theo cng thc ( 2) ; d) T cc h s a , b , c tnh c v cng sut mu ca gi tng ng ( m Pi ) , tnh cng sut d bo tng gi ( Pi db ) ca Min Bc theo cng thc (1) ; ) Lp li cc bc tnh ton a, b, c, d cho Min Trung v Min Nam; e) T biu ph ti ba min Bc, Trung, Nam, xy dng biu ph ti ton h thng in quc gia:
Pi QG = Pi B + Pi T + Pi N
db

Trong : Pi QG Pi B Pi T Pi N

: Cng sut gi i ca h thng in quc gia;

: Cng sut gi i ca h thng in Min Bc; : Cng sut gi i ca h thng in Min Nam; : Cng sut gi i ca h thng in Min Trung.

36

Ph lc 8 S TRNH T D BO PH TI IN NM (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) Trch nhim thc hin QG n v bn bun in Cc TCT in lc QG S qu trnh thc hin Thi gian thc hin Trc 01/8

Trc 01/8

Trc 01/8

Trc 01/8

QG

Trc 01/9

QG QG

Trc 01/9 Trc 01/9

37

QG

nh gi kt qu d bo nm N-1 S liu in nng xut nhp khu nm ti D bo ph ti (Pmin, Pmax, Ath, biu in hnh) ca cc TCT in lc La chn phng php d bo

Trc 01/9

D bo Pmin, Pmax, Ath

QG
Hiu chnh Pmin, Pmax, Ath

Trc 01/9

To biu ph ti in hnh nm ti

Kim tra

Cng b kt qu d bo

38

Ph lc 9 S TRNH T D BO PH TI IN THNG (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) Trch nhim thc hin QG n v bn bun in Cc TCT in lc QG S qu trnh thc hin
nh gi kt qu d bo thng M-1 S liu in nng xut nhp khu thng ti D bo ph ti (Pmin, Pmax, Ath, biu in hnh) ca cc TCT in lc La chn phng php d bo

Thi gian thc hin Trc 20 hng thng Trc 20 hng thng Trc 20 hng thng Trc 25 hng thng Trc 25 hng thng Trc 25 hng thng Trc 25 hng thng Trc 25 hng thng Trc 25 hng thng

QG

D bo Pmin, Pmax, Ath

QG

Hiu chnh Pmin, Pmax, Ath

QG

To biu ph ti in hnh thng ti

QG

Kim tra

QG

Cng b kt qu d bo

39

Ph lc 10 S TRNH T D BO PH TI IN TUN (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) Trch nhim thc hin QG S qu trnh thc hin
nh gi kt qu d bo tun W-1 Cp nht d bo thi tit tun W+1, W+2

Thi gian thc hin 16h30 th Hai

QG Cc TCT in lc QG

08h00 th Ba

D bo ph ti ca cc TCT in lc Hun luyn M hnh mng Nron

08h00 th Ba

08h30 th Ba

QG

D bo Pmin, Pmax, Ang theo nhit

09h00 th Ba

QG

Hiu chnh Pmin, Pmax, Ang

09h00 th Ba

QG

To biu ph ti 336h cho 02 tun ti

10h00 th Ba

QG

Kim tra

10h00 th Ba

QG

Cng b kt qu d bo

15h00 th Nm

40

Ph lc 11 S TRNH T D BO PH TI IN NGY (Ban hnh km theo Quy trnh d bo ph ti h thng in quc gia) Trch nhim thc hin QG Thi gian thc hin 08h00

S qu trnh thc hin

nh gi kt qu d bo ngy D-1 Cp nht d bo thi tit ngy D+1

QG

08h30

QG

Hun luyn M hnh mng Nron

09h00

QG

D bo Pmin, Pmax, Ang theo nhit

09h30

QG

Hiu chnh Pmin, Pmax, Ang

09h30

QG

To biu ph ti 24h cho ngy ti

10h00

QG

Kim tra

10h00

QG

Cng b kt qu d bo

10h00

41