CHNG 6

CC TIU CHUN NH GI V LA CHN D N U T

Hin gi thun NPV (Net Present value)

Nm 2

..

CF

-I

CF1

CF2

CFn

CF NPV I
1

CF
2

CF ...
2 n

(1 + r)

(1 + r)

(1 + r)

Hin gi thun NPV (Net Present value)

Chn la d n khi c lp NPV cho thy gi tr tng thm m d n t c. NPV>0 : Chp nhn d n NPV<0: Loi b d n. NPV =0: Loi b hay chp nhn ph thuc vo quan im ca nh u t.Lc ny gi tr d n to ra b p v gi tr ca tin t theo thi gian v c ri ro, ngoi ra chng khng nhn c g thm na. Chn la d n loi tr ln nhau: Khi p dng tiu chun NPV i vi cc d n loi tr ln nhau, chng ta chn d n c NPV ln nht.

Hin gi thun NPV (Net Present value)

V d: gi s mt cng ty mun lp t mt thit b sn xut. C hai h thng c xem xt, A v B. H thng A yu cu mt khon u t ban u l 300.000$, dng tin vo mi nm l 72.000$ trong 6 nm.H thng B yu cu mt khon u t ban u l 420.000$, tuy nhin h thng B tiu hao lao ng t hn v chi ph hot ng cng thp hn, nn dng tin vo mi nm l 103.000$ trong 6 nm. Chi ph s dng ca cng ty l 10%. Hy la chn h thng ?

Hin gi thun NPV (Net Present value)

D n u t ban u CF hng nm i sng d n Chi ph s dng vn NPV A 300.000$ 72.000$ 6 10% 13.582$ B 420.000$ 103.000$ 6 10% 28.596$

u nhc im ca NPV
Tiu chun NPV ghi nhn tin t c gi tr theo thi gian NPV ch da trn 2 d liu l dng tin c d on t d n v chi ph c hi ca vn. Bt k mt d n u t no m kt qu thm nh b tc ng bi ch quan ca nh qun l, s la chn phng php k ton hoc kh nng sinh li ca nhng d n c lp khc u dn n nhng quyt nh khng ng. NPV c tnh cht cng :NPV (A+B) = NPV(A)+NPV(B) NPV c nhc im l n khng a ra kt lun la chn khi cc d n khng ng nht v mt thi gian cng nh xp hng tin trong vic la chn cc d n u t khi ngun vn cua doanh nghip b gii hn

Tiu chun t sut thu nhp ni b- IRR

T sut thu nhp ni b o lng t sut sinh li m bn thn d n to ra. IRR ca d n li sut chit khu m ti NPV = 0 IRR v quyt nh chp nhn hoc loi b d n Trng hp d n c lp ln nhau: IRR > r : chp nhn d n (r l t sut mong i ca nh u t) IRR<r : Loi b d n Trng hp d n loi tr ln nhau Nh u t chn d n no c IRR ln nht min l IRR ca d n ln hn r.

u nhc im ca ch tiu IRR(So vi NPV)

u im Khng bit sut chit khu vn tnh c IRR Trong trng hp c nhiu ngun ti tr khc nhau i vi d n, thng qua ch tiu IRR nh u t c th nh gi c ngun u t no l thch hp i vi iu kin hot ng ca d n Nhc im Khi s dng ch tiu IRR trong trng hp d n loi tr ln nhau thng khng a ra kt qu ng trong xp hng cc d n. Do nu nh u t ch da vo ch tiu ny quyt nh la chn d n ti u trong cc d n loi tr ln nhau c th mc sai lm.

u nhc im ca ch tiu IRR(So vi NPV)

-D n c ngn lu bt thng: Trng hp 1: Mt d n dng tin thun lun dng trong cc nm hot ng, d n loi ny khng c IRR v d n lun hiu qu vi mi sut chit khu r. Trng hp 2: D n i du lin tc t m sang dng v ngc li, trong trng hp ny d n c kh nng xut hin IRR a tr. V nh u t rt kh quyt nh l nn theo gi tr IRR no so snh vi cc d n khc v ra quyt nh la chn cui cng.

u nhc im ca ch tiu IRR(So vi NPV)

V d c 2 d n A v B loi tr vi dng ngn lu nh nhau: Nm t 0 1 2 3

CFA CFB

-600 -100

320 430

280 -591,25

240 262,5

D n A c IRR duy nht l 20%, D n B c 3 gi tr IRR 5%,25%,100%

u nhc im ca ch tiu IRR(So vi NPV)

Xp hng cc d n loi tr nhau c qui m khc nhau. Nm D n A D n B 0 -100 -1000 1 120 1200 IRR 20% 20% NPV(r=10%) 9.09 90.9

Khi c mu thun xy ra gia NPV v IRR th tiu chun NPV l thch hp hn

T s li ch trn chi ph
T s li ch trn chi ph (B/C)=PV(li ch)/PV (Chi ph) Trng hp d n c lp vi nhau: -Nu (B/C) > 1 : Chp nhn d n -Nu (B/C)<1: Bc b d n -Nu (B/C) =1 : Ty quan im nh u t Trng hp d n loi tr ln nhau: - Chn d n c B/C max. Nhc im: Khi cc d n khc nhau v qui m:

T s li ch trn chi ph

V d:
D n PV chi ph PV li ch B/C NPV

A B

1 10

3 16

3 1.6

2 6

Nu da vo B/C s chn d n A, nhng da vo NPV s chn d n B

T s li ch trn chi ph
D n K L M 0 -5.000 -10.000 -5.000 1 6.000 2.000 5.300 2 1.000 12000 1.800 NVP 1.281 1.736 1.360 B/C 1,256 1,174 1,261 IRR 34,8% 20% 33,1%

Nu xt NPV, d n L c NPV ln nht Nu xt theo PI d n M c B/C cao nht Nu xt IRR th d n K c IRR cao nht

T s li ch trn chi ph
3 tiu chun cho 3 kt qu khc nhau, nu cc d n c lp ln nhau vic loi la chn hay t b d n kh n gin. Tuy nhin nu y l cc d n ph thuc ln nhau, s l sai lm khi s dng ch tiu B/C. Trong nhng trng hp ny tt nht vn s dng tiu chun NPV.

Thi gian hon vn

Thi gian hon vn khng c chit khu Tp: -I+CFt =0 (t=1, Tp) Thi gian hon vn c chit khu: -It/(1+r)t + CFt/(1+r)t =0 (t= 1,Tp) Tiu chun nh gi d n l Tp E(TP) E(Tp) l thi gian hon vn k vng, ty thuc vo tng ngnh, tng a phng. Trong trng hp s dng TP la chn cc d n loi tr nhau th d n no c thi gian hon vn ngn hn s hp dn hn

U nhc im ca ch tiu thi gian hon vn

i vi tiu chun thi gian hon vn khng c chit khu: u im : Cho bit thi gian thu hi vn u t ban u Nhc im: -Khng tnh n thi gi tin t -Tt c dng tin pht sinh sau thi gian thu hi vn b b qua i vi tiu chun thi gian hon vn c chit khu u im: - C tnh n thi gi ca tin t Nhc im: -Dng tin pht sinh sau thi gian thu hi vn b b qua v nh vy d n c NPV dng c th khng c chp nhn - Thi gian hon vn c chit khu ca DA ngn khng c ngha l NPV >0