Energy Scenario of India

Energy Efficiency Certification Experience Sharing and Consulting Workshop 6th - 7th February,2013

K. K. Chakarvarti Energy Economist, Bureau of Energy Efficiency New Delhi (INDIA)

Energy Scenario of India

Population : 1.24 billion GDP : $ 1.53 trillion GDP Growth : 8.5% pa GDP Share :
Service Sector (55.3%) Industry (28.6%) Agriculture ( 16.1%)
Base: Year 2010

5th Largest Primary Energy Demand 1 / 4.7th of World per capita consumption 1 / 22nd of US per capita consumption

Indian Energy Scenario(Source: World Energy Outlook 2007)

Primary Energy Demand Trend (MTOE)

1990

2005

2015

2030

Coal
Oil

106
63

208
129

330
188

620
328

Gas
Nuclear

10
2

29
5

48
16

93
33

Hydro
Biomass

6
133

9
158

13
171

22
195

Other Rnw.
Total

0
320

1
537

4
770

9
1300

By 2030, India will be the 3rd largest energy consumer in the world after China & United States

Indian Sectoral Demand Mtoe (2009-35) [1/2]

[With respect to 450 and NPS scenario]

Source: IEA, 2011a.

450 Scenario: A scenario presented in the World Energy Outlook, which sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2

New Policies Scenario: A scenario in the World Energy Outlook which takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced

Sectoral Demand Mtoe (2009-35) [2/2]

Sectoral energy demand reflects the economic structure of a country.
In 1990, the building sector was Indias largest energy consumer, representing 42% of Indias total primary energy demand (TPED), using biomass as the major fuel.

The share of buildings dropped to 29% in 2009 and will decrease to about 18% in 2035. The industry sector consumed approximately 22% of TPED in 1990 and will remain similar until 2035.

India- CO2 Emission reduction

Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035

Efficiency Renewables Biofuels Nuclear CCS 51% 32% 1% 8% 8%

Indian Energy Scenario-

Annual Generation and Growth Rate

Sources: CEA, 2012

Indian Energy ScenarioSources: CEA, 2012a; MOP, 2007a.

Installed capacity Addition by fuel

Almost 86% of added capacity is thermal based, which highlights the importance of securing coal and gas supply for the new plants Despite this record capacity addition, India still had a shortage of 9.8% of electricity supply during peak time in 2010 and 2011, as only 110 GW of demand was met out of a peak demand of 122 GW. This supply-demand gap is anticipated to grow even larger, reaching 12.9% or 17.5 GW shortage in FY 2011/12

Why Energy Efficiency Essential?

Source: Human Development Index 2010 data United Nations; Annual Per Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh) - 2007 data World Bank Updated: 4/11

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