VIT NAM PROGRAM 79 John F.

Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138

TEL: (617) 495-1134 FAX: (617) 496-5245

TI TR PHT TRIN KINH T: NGHIN CU SO SNH CI CCH KHU VC TI CHNH VIT NAM V TRUNG QUC

Jay K. Rosengard1 v Hunh Th Du2

Thc hin cho Ti liu i thoi Chnh sch Harvard - UNDP Lot bi v nghin cu sc cnh tranh quc t v s gia nhp WTO ca Vit Nam Ti liu i thoi Chnh sch s 2

Jay K. Rosengard l ging vin Chnh sch cng v l Gim c Chng trnh Khu vc ti chnh ti Trng Harvard Kennedy. 2 Hunh Th Du ging vin ti Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright.

LI CM T Ti liu nghin cu ny l n lc phi hp gia Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright (FETP) ti Thnh ph H Ch Minh v Trng Harvard Kennedy i hc Harvard, vi s h tr ti chnh t Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc (UNDP). y l mt phn trong lot bi i thoi chnh sch ca UNDP-Harvard v nghin cu sc cnh tranh quc t v s gia nhp WTO ca Vit Nam.

CH V DANH T VIT TT ABC: Ngn hng Nng nghip Trung Quc ACB: Ngn hng Thng mi C phn chu ADB: Ngn hng Pht trin chu AMC: Cng ty Qun l Ti sn BIDV: Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam COB: Ngn hng Trung Quc BTA: Hip nh Thng mi Song phng CADB: Ngn hng Pht trin Nng nghip Trung Quc CAR: H s vn CBRC: y ban iu tit Ngn hng Trung Quc CCB: Ngn hng Xy dng Trung Quc CDB: Ngn hng Pht trin Trung Quc CEIB: Ngn hng Xut Nhp khu Trung Quc CIRC: y ban iu tit ngnh Bo him Trung Quc CSRC: y ban iu tit Chng khon Trung Quc DAF: Qu h tr pht trin DATC: Cng ty Mua bn n v Ti sn tn ng ca Doanh nghip FDIEs: Doanh nghip u t Trc tip Nc ngoi FED: C quan D tr Lin bang M (Ngn hng Trung ng M) FETP: Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright GDP: Tng sn phm ni a HASTC: Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon H Ni HCMC: Thnh ph H Ch Minh HOSTC: S Giao dch Chng khon TPHCM ICB: Ngn hng Cng Thng Vit Nam ICBC: Ngn hng Cng Thng Trung Quc ILO: T chc Lao ng Quc t IMF: Qu Tin t Quc t IPO: Pht hnh ra cng chng ln u LDIF: Qu u t Pht trin a phng MHB: Ngn hng Nh BSCL NGO: T chc phi chnh ph NHTMCP: Ngn hng thng mi c phn

NHTMNN: Ngn hng Thng mi Nh nc NIM: Chnh lch li sut rng NPL: N kh i OTC: Giao dch khng chnh thc PBOC: Ngn hng Nhn dn Trung Quc RMB: ng Nhn dn t ROA: Li nhun trn ti sn ROE: Li nhun trn vn ch s hu ROSCA: hi, h (Rotating Savings and Credit Association) Sacombank: Ngn hng Thng mi C phn Si Gn Thng Tn NHNN: Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam SCIC: Cng ty u t Vn Nh nc SEZ: c khu Kinh t DNNN: Doanh nghip Nh nc SSC: y ban Chng khon Nh nc TVEs: X nghip Hng Trn UNDP: Pht trin Lin Hp Quc USD: -la M VBARD: Ngn hng Nng nghip v Pht trin Nng thn Vit Nam NHCSXH: Ngn hng Chnh sch X hi Vit Nam VCB or Vietcombank: Ngn hng Ngoi thng Vit Nam VDB: Ngn hng Pht trin Vit Nam VDI: Bo him tin gi Vit Nam VND: Tin ng Vit Nam VNPT: Tp on Bu chnh Vin thng Vit Nam VPSC: Cng ty Tit kim Bu in WB: Ngn hng Th gii WDI: Cc Ch bo Pht trin Th gii WTO: T chc Thng mi Th gii

MC LC BNG ..................................................................................................................................vii HNH ................................................................................................................................. viii TM TT ............................................................................................................................. 1 PHN I: MC TIU NGHIN CU, PHNG PHP LUN V NHNG HN CH ................................................................................................................................................ 2 PHN II: KHUN KH T DUY NH GI CI CCH KHU VC TI CHNH ................................................................................................................................................ 2 PHN III: TNG QUAN KHU VC TI CHNH VIT NAM V TRUNG QUC ................................................................................................................................................ 3 III.1. S hnh thnh v cu trc ca khu vc ti chnh chnh thc ..............................3 III.1.1. Vit Nam......................................................................................................... 3 III.1.2. Trung Quc .................................................................................................... 5 III.2. Cung cp cc chc nng then cht ca khu vc ti chnh....................................7 III.2.1. Chnh sch tin t .......................................................................................... 7 III.2.2. iu tit v gim st khu vc ngn hng .................................................... 9 III.2.3. Trung gian ti chnh .................................................................................... 10 III.2.4. Cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng v cc loi th trng .................... 16 PHN IV: CI CCH KHU VC TI CHNH VIT NAM V TRUNG QUC21 IV.1. T do ha khu vc ti chnh ..................................................................................21 IV.1.1. Cc bin php kim sot li sut ................................................................ 21 IV.1.2. Hn mc tn dng v tn dng ch nh ..................................................... 22 IV.1.3. D tr bt buc............................................................................................ 23 IV.1.4. Chnh sch ngoi hi v qun l t gi hi oi ........................................ 23 IV.1.5. Chnh sch qun l dng vn v ti khon vn ........................................ 24 IV.2. Ni lng qui nh khu vc ti chnh .....................................................................25 IV.2.1. Cc ro cn gia nhp, m rng v a dng ha ....................................... 25

IV.2.2. T nhn ha/c phn ha ........................................................................... 26 IV.3. n nh khu vc ti chnh ......................................................................................30 IV.3.1. Ti c cu ..................................................................................................... 30 IV.3.2. Gii quyt n xu......................................................................................... 31 IV.3.3. Ti cp vn ................................................................................................... 33 IV.3.4. Gim st v iu tit .................................................................................... 34 V.1. Tng hp nhng im tng ng v khc bit gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc35 V.2. Khuyn ngh chnh sch nhm ci cch hn na khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam .36

BNG Bng 1: Tng quan cc ngn hng Vit Nam 2005 ........................................................... 12 Bng 2: Tng quan cc ngn hng Trung Quc t 1997 n 2003 ................................... 14 Bng 3: Chnh lch t gi gia th trng chnh thc v th trng t do ......................... 24 Bng 4: Cc nh u t nc ngoi ba ngn hng ln nht Trung Quc ...................... 28 Bng 5: Nh u t nc ngoi trong Ngn hng Thng mi c phn Vit Nam ......... 29

HNH Hnh 1: Mi quan h gia tng trng kinh t, tng trng cung tin v lm pht ............ 9 Hnh 2: Phn phi ti sn h thng ngn hng ca Vit Nam v Trung Quc .................. 16 Hnh 3: Xu hng ch s VN-Index v ch s Shanghai Composite t 1990 ................... 17 Hnh 4: C cu ti sn ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc (% GDP) ............................ 20 Hnh 5: Cc cam kt WTO ca Vit Nam trong khu vc ti chnh ................................... 29 Hnh 6: N xu ca cc NHTMNN Trung Quc ............................................................... 32

TM TT Nghin cu ny phn tch s pht trin khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc trong khun kh ci cch khu vc ti chnh c thc hin hai quc gia nhm: nh gi tin ci cch cho n nay v nhng thch thc tng lai mi nc; so snh v i chiu cc chin lc v kt qu ci cch khu vc ti chnh; v thit lp cc khuyn ngh chnh sch nhm thc y hn na ci cch ti chnh Vit Nam. Nghin cu ny tp trung vo ba kha cnh ci cch khu vc ti chnh: t do ha; ni lng qui nh; v n nh khu vc ti chnh. Nghin cu kt lun rng: c cu, s pht trin v tin trnh ci cch h thng ngn hng Vit Nam v Trung Quc v c bn kh ging nhau, v c hai nc u t c tin b ng k trong cc chng trnh ci cch ca mnh; qu trnh ci cch vn cn di hai nc; v vic quan st cn cnh hn ci cch khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc h m nhng khc bit chnh trong tin thc hin tnh n nay mi nc. Cc khuyn ngh nhm thc y hn na qu trnh ci cch khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam vi tm quan trng gim dn gm: thit lp mt c quan gim st ngn hng vng mnh vi nhng cng c gim st hiu qu nhm m bo s n nh v bn vng ca h thng ngn hng; thc y ti c cu ngn hng trong nc, c bit l cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc (NHTMNN), to ra nhng ngn hng cnh tranh, vng mnh thc hin tt vai tr trung gian ti chnh ch thc; pht trin cc nh ch, sn phm v h thng phn phi mang li cc dch v ti chnh chnh thc cho cc doanh nghip c th c thu nhp thp ca Vit Nam; v t do ha cn trng, duy tr nng lc xc nh v gim thiu ri ro ca khu vc ti chnh hot ng da vo th trng.

PHN I: MC TIU NGHIN CU, PHNG PHP LUN V NHNG HN CH Do tm quan trng ca s pht trin khu vc ti chnh i vi s tng trng kinh t lu bn, c bit trong bi cnh thnh tu ci cch kinh t ca Vit Nam k t khi thc hin chnh sch i Mi 20 nm trc, mc tiu ca nghin cu ny l phn tch s pht trin khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc trong khun kh cc cuc ci cch khu vc ti chnh c thc hin hai quc gia. Nghin cu s nh gi tin ci cch cho n nay v nhng thch thc tng lai mi nc; so snh v i chiu cc chin lc v kt qu ci cch khu vc ti chnh; v thit lp cc khuyn ngh chnh sch thc y hn na ci cch khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam. Phng php lun ca nghin cu ny l da vo nhng ti liu hin hu v s pht trin ca khu vc ti chnh thit k khun kh t duy cho vic phn tch cc cuc ci cch c thc hin Vit Nam v Trung Quc. Nghin cu tp trung vo ba kha cnh ci cch khu vc ti chnh: t do ha; ni lng qui nh; v n nh khu vc ti chnh. Khun kh t duy ny c p dng vo nh gi so snh s pht trin ca khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc, ch yu da vo ngun d liu th cp c tnh m t v cc cuc phng vn ly thng tin b sung h tr cho vic din dch lng thng tin ny. Khun kh t duy ny cng s c dng hnh thnh nhng gi cho hot ng ci cch khu vc ti chnh trong tng lai ca Vit Nam thng qua kt ni phn tch chnh sch vi cc khuyn ngh. Do tnh nhy cm cao ca ch ny nn nhng hn ch ca nghin cu xoay quanh vn tip cn thng tin v s liu. Nhiu t chc ti chnh xem s liu ca mnh l c quyn nn khng sn sng chia s nhng thng tin ny vi nn ngoi. H e ngi kh nng vi phm tnh bo mt ca khch hng, l nhng yu km ni b trc khch hng v c quan gim st, v nh mt b mt kinh doanh vo tay i th cnh tranh. Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v gim st khu vc ti chnh cng min cng chia s thng tin v e rng s lm l ra cc khim khuyt t chc v nhng vn nhy cm v mt quc gia. Do , c nhng l hng ln v s liu, m nu c lp y s c th lm thay i mt s pht hin v xut ca nghin cu ny. Nhng l hng ny c nu r trong bi vit. Hn na, nhng im tng ng v khc bit gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc khng nn c xem l nhng cch lm tt nht v xu nht, thay vo , nn c xem nh ngun thng tin tho lun v phn nh vi hy vng rng nhng kinh nghim ni khc c th gip hiu c tnh hnh Vit Nam v cung cp nhng tng c th c p dng theo yu cu v kh nng. PHN II: KHUN KH T DUY NH GI CI CCH KHU VC TI CHNH Nghin cu ny c cu trc theo ch , thay v ln lt phn tch ci cch khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc, sau so snh i chiu ci cch gia hai bn. Nghin cu s cng lc xem xt Vit Nam v Trung Quc theo ba kha cnh quan trng ca ci cch khu vc ti chnh gm: t do ha, ni lng qui nh v n nh khu vc ti chnh. Vic t do ha khu vc ti chnh s m t s chuyn dch t h thng ti chnh theo kiu hnh chnh sang h thng da vo th trng. Khi p dng vo h thng ngn hng, iu ny c ngha l thay cho vic li sut v phn b tn dng c ch nh v mt hnh chnh, th gi c th trng s c dng quyt nh gi tr vn, v li nhun trn vn s c dng phn b ngun vn ny. T do ha cng dn n vic s dng d tr bt buc nng cao tnh n nh

ca cc t chc nhn tin gi thay v l cng c ngn sch nh thu ln vn hoc ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch, hoc nh l cng c tin t kim sot cung tin thay cho nghip v hot ng th trng m. Khi c p dng rng ri cho h thng ti chnh, t do ha ni n t gi hi oi do th trng quyt nh v ti khon vn m. Kha cnh ni lng qui nh khu vc ti chnh m t s chuyn dch t h thng ti chnh ng sang h thng cnh tranh. Khi p dng vo h thng ngn hng, n c ngha l s chuyn tip t c quyn hay c quyn nhm ngn hng, vi nhng ro cn php l hay hnh chnh hn ch s cnh tranh, vic gia nhp th trng, m rng v a dng ha, sang h thng ngn hng m v cnh tranh, kt qu hot ng th trng ch khng phi nhng i x c bit s quyt nh th phn v kh nng li nhun ca ngn hng. Kt qu l s hnh thnh nn sn chi bnh ng khng ch ngn hng s hu t nhn cnh tranh vi ngn hng s hu nh nc, m cn cho php ngn hng nc ngoi cnh tranh vi cc ngn hng trong nc. Trong bi cnh ton b h thng ti chnh rng ln hn, th vic ni lng qui nh ni n s ng dng cc nguyn tc tng t cho c nhng nh ch ti chnh phi ngn hng v th trng vn. n nh khu vc ti chnh lin quan n vic m bo s n nh lu di ca h thng ti chnh mt nc. Thng thng, n c ngha l khi phc tnh thanh khon v kh nng thanh ton cho h thng ngn hng sau mt cuc khng hong ngn hng bng cch gii quyt n xu tn ng. Khi cn sau c th phi ti cp vn ngn hng v ci thin nng lc gim st v iu tit ngn hng duy tr s an ton v tnh trng sc khe ca ngn hng trong tng lai. Khi p dng cho ton b h thng ti chnh, s n nh s dn n vic hn ch nhng tht bi th trng trong khu vc ti chnh, nh tnh trng thng tin bt cn xng v th trng khng hon ho, qua gii quyt nhng hnh vi mang tnh bt n tim tng nh s chn la bt li, tm l li v s gian ln. PHN III: TNG QUAN KHU VC TI CHNH VIT NAM V TRUNG QUC III.1. S hnh thnh v cu trc ca khu vc ti chnh chnh thc III.1.1. Vit Nam Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam (NHNN) c thnh lp ngy 06/05/1951 v hot ng nh l ngn hng mt cp, theo NHNN va ng vai tr ngn hng trung ng (pht hnh tin) v ngn hng thng mi (huy ng vn v cho vay). Nh nc cng trc tip s hu v kim sot hai ngn hng c bit, thng c gi l ngn hng thng mi nh nc (NHTMNN): th nht l Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam (BIDV), thnh lp nm 1957 cung cp vn di hn cho cc d n c s h tng v cng trnh cng cng; th hai l Ngn hng Ngoi thng Vit Nam (VCB hay Vietcombank), thnh lp 1963 ti tr cho hot ng ngoi thng, qun l ngoi hi v h tr cho cc doanh nghip nh nc (DNNN). Theo m hnh ngn hng mt cp, h thng ngn hng Vit Nam ng vai tr nh phng tin trin khai cc chnh sch ca chnh ph thng qua cung cp ti lc cho nh nc v cc doanh nghip nh nc. Cng c ti tr pht trin chnh l tn dng ch nh vi li sut c tr cp mc cao.

Nhng trc trc ca hng i ny tr nn r rng trong thp nin 1980, khi NHNN khng th kim sot cung tin hay cht lng tn dng. Kt qu l lm pht tng cao, li sut thc m, thp hn c li sut tin gi, v n kh i (NPL) khi lng ln, khin cho Vit Nam tr nn c bit nhy cm vi khng hong tn dng v bt n kinh t v m. Do , nm 1988, Vit Nam thc hin ci cch quan trng u tin trong khu vc ti chnh l chuyn giao chc nng qun l ngn sch ca NHNN sang B Ti chnh mi thnh lp, chuyn giao chc nng ngn hng thng mi ca NHNN sang cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc, thnh lp thm hai ngn hng thng mi nh nc l Ngn hng Nng nghip v Pht trin Nng thn (VBARD) v Ngn hng Cng Thng Vit Nam (ICB), cp vn cho cc khu vc kinh t lin quan nh nng nghip/pht trin nng thn v cng nghip/thng mi. iu ny cng cho php tt c t chc kinh t, k c khu vc dn doanh, vay v huy ng vn t cng chng, nhng cng gp phn to ra khng hong cc qu tn dng v hp tc x tn dng vo nm 1990, km theo s tn tht lng tin ca cng chng i vi h thng ngn hng ca t nc.3 iu ny a Vit Nam chuyn dch mt cch hiu qu t h thng ngn hng mt cp sang h thng ngn hng hai cp trong cc chc nng ca ngn hng trung ng c gii hn chnh sch tin t (pht hnh tin v kim sot lm pht) v gim st cc ngn hng thng mi (iu tit v gim st hot ng ngn hng); trong khi chc nng trung gian ti chnh (huy ng v phn b vn) c chuyn sang cho cc ngn hng thng mi cng vi cc dch v chuyn tin v thanh ton. Tuy nhin, cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc khng phi l nhng ngn hng thng mi hot ng theo th trng: v li sut huy ng v cho vay ca h u do NHNN n nh; chnh lch li sut cho vay c xc nh da trn u tin u t tng i (khu vc kinh t) v mc ch s dng vn (vn lu ng hay u t ti sn c nh) thay v ri ro vn vay tng i. Cc tiu chun nhn vn vay phn nh cc u tin chnh sch ca chnh ph hn l tim nng th trng, v li sut tit kim c cn c vo i tng gi tin (h gia nh hay doanh nghip) v loi tin (VND hay ngoi t) thay v gi th trng v nhu cu thanh khon ca ngn hng. Giai on t 1986 n 1988 rt bt n: chnh ph in tin ti tr thm ht ngn sch, dn n siu lm pht 3 con s, cc sng kin t do ha ti chnh c thc hin m khng c ci cch doanh nghip nh nc, sn xut cng nghip hay thng mi, ch c khu vc nng nghip l c t do ha, gi c nhiu mt hng b bin dng nghim trng, v t do ha i rt xa n mc tt c t chc kinh t u c php giao dch tin t, m khng qua h thng gim st ti chnh no.4 Tuy nhin, mi n hai nm sau th h thng ngn hng Vit Nam mi bt u hot ng chnh thc nh h thng ngn hng hai cp, khi Hi ng Nh nc ban hnh cc php lnh ngn hng vo nm 1990. thi im ny, cc hp tc x tn dng c i tn thnh qu tn dng nhn dn do hu qu ca s b h thng hp tc x tn dng.5 Sau y l nhng din tin quan trng khc trong s tin ha ca h thng ngn hng Vit Nam t nm 1990: cc ngn hng thng mi c phn (NHTMCP) c php thnh lp v ngn hng nc ngoi c php thm nhp th trng thng qua m chi nhnh hay thit lp lin doanh vi
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Xem: http://www.sbv.gov.vn/home/gioithieu.asp. Xem: Nguyn Xun Thnh, Vit Nam: Con ng i n t do ha li sut, Nghin cu tnh hung [FETP] , 3/2003; xem: http://www.fetp.edu.vn/index.cfm?rframe=/research_casestudy/facresearchlist.htm 5 Thomas Dufhues, S chuyn i h thng ti chnh Vit Nam v ngha i vi th trng ti chnh nng thn bn cp nht, 2003, tr.31; xem: http://www.gov.si/zmar/apublic/jiidt/jiidt03/4dufhues.pdf.

ngn hng trong nc; ba ngn hng chnh sch v mt ngn hng thng mi nh nc khc c thnh lp ( l Ngn hng Chnh sch X hi (NHCSXH), Ngn hng Pht trin (VDB), v Cng ty Dch v Tit kim Bu in (VPSC), v Ngn hng Pht trin nh ng bng song Cu Long (MHB)6); quan h vi cc nh ch quc t c bnh thng ha, Lut Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam 1997 xc nhn vai tr ca NHNN l ngn hng trung ng; VDI (Bo him tin gi Vit Nam) c thit lp; bn cng ty qun l ti sn (AMC) c lp ra nh nhng chi nhnh thuc s hu ca cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc. M hnh ny tip tc c p dng khi cc AMC khc thuc nhm ngn hng thng mi c phn c thit lp; DATC (Cng ty Mua bn n v Ti sn tn ng ca Doanh nghip) xut hin nh l doanh nghip thng mi vi nhim v to li nhun t vic mua v bn ti sn xu ca doanh nghip nh nc; SCIC (Tng Cng ty u t v Kinh doanh Vn Nh nc) c thnh lp qun l vn nh nc trong tt c doanh nghip tr 19 doanh nghip nh nc ln nht; v Vit Nam tip tc tng bc m ca khu vc ti chnh vi cc t chc nc ngoi thng qua k kt hip nh thng mi song phng vi Hoa K nm 2001 v gia nhp T chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO) nm 2007. Hin ti, Vit Nam ang c phn ha cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc theo cch tng t nh chng trnh c phn ha ca Trung Quc, nhng tin n nay vn chm. Ch c VCB v ICB l c IPO (pht hnh ln u ra cng chng); cn ba ngn hng thng mi nh nc cn li l BIDV, VBARD, v MHB c hy vng s sm ra cng chng. Hn na, khng ging Trung Quc, VCB thc hin IPO m khng qua bc u tin l tm i tc chin lc. V vy, mc d t pht hnh din ra kh tt, nim tin ca cng chng vo VCB gim mnh k t t IPO, th hin qua s gim st gn 70% gi c phiu ca ngn hng ny sau mt nm, khi gi IPO ca ngn hng ICB cha bng 1/5 gi IPO ca VCB. Nm 1995 y ban Chng khon Nh nc (SSC) c thit lp nhm to iu kin pht trin th trng vn, theo sau l s hnh thnh Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon TPHCM vit tt l HOSTC nm 2000 v Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon H Ni, HASTC nm 2005. III.1.2. Trung Quc PBOC (Ngn hng Nhn dn Trung Quc) c thit lp ngy 01/12/1948 thuc B Ti chnh, v c vn hnh nh ngn hng mt cp ging nh NHNN Vit Nam. Khng lu sau , ba ngn hng chuyn bit c hnh thnh phc v chc nng ti tr cho nn kinh t: BOC (Ngn hng Trung Hoa), ABC (Ngn hng Nng nghip Trung Quc), v CCB (Ngn hng Xy dng Trung Quc) 7. Trung Quc cng ban hnh ng tin mi vi nm 1951, gi l Nhn dn t (remimbi hay yuan). Mt trong nhng cuc ci cch do ng Tiu Bnh pht ng nm 1978 theo k hoch chuyn i Trung Quc t mt nn kinh t k hoch tp trung sang nn kinh t th trng x hi ch ngha l quyt nh ca Hi ng Nh nc PBOC tr thnh ngn hng trung ng vo thng 9/1983. BOC v ABC cng tr thnh ngn hng thng mi nh nc nm 1979. Hai quyt nh quan trng ny chnh thc chuyn i Trung Quc theo h thng ngn hng hai cp. Hn na, mt ngn hng khc l ICBC (Ngn hng Cng Thng Trung Quc), cng c thnh lp nm 1984, cng gia nhp i ng ba ngn hng c bit nu. n nay y l b t
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Xem: http://www.mhb.com.vn/?p=gioi_thieu_mhb.asp&r=0, 28/12/2006. Xem: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/renhangjianjie/history.asp v http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Bank_of_China , 26/12/2006.

ngn hng thng mi ln nht Trung Quc. ng thi, nhng ngn hng ny chu trch nhim ti tr cho cc khu vc kinh t c giao, v phi hp chc ch vi PBOC. Cc ngn hng khu vc v ngn hng thng mi c phn cng c thit lp, ngn hng nc ngoi c php tham gia di hnh thc lin doanh, lp chi nhnh hay 100% s hu nc ngoi.8 Nm 1994, ba ngn hng chnh sch c thit lp tch bch ngun tn dng ch nh khi vn tn dng thng mi, l CDB (Ngn hng Pht trin), CEIB (Ngn hng Xut Nhp khu), v CADB (Ngn hng Pht trin Nng nghip). Sang nm sau, Quc hi Trung Quc thng qua hai o lut quan trng khc nh l bc tip theo trong pht trin khu vc ti chnh: Lut Ngn hng Nhn dn Trung Quc khng nh vai tr ca PBOC l ngn hng trung ng, v Lut Ngn hng Thng mi chnh thc cng nhn b t NHTMNN l ngn hng thng mi ng thi tch ring cc hot ng ngn hng, chng khon v bo him. Mt phn ca vic pht trin th trng vn l thit lp Th trng Chng khon Thng Hi v Thm Quyn ln lt nm 1990 v 1991, sau CSRC (y ban iu tit Chng khon Trung Quc) ra i nm 1992, v CIRC (y ban iu tit Bo him) nm 1998. Cng trong nm ny, PBOC c ti c cu, sp nhp chi nhnh cc tnh thnh chn vn phng vng.9 Nm 1999, di s qun l phi hp gia B Ti chnh v PBOC, bn AMC c thnh lp vi ngun vn 22 t -la do chnh ph Trung Quc cp gii quyt 169 t -la n xu ca t i NHTMNN10. Khng ging m hnh AMC thuc cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc Vit Nam, cc AMC ca Trung Quc hon ton c lp vi nhng ngn hng ny. Trong cuc hp u tin ca Quc hi Kha 10 nm 2003, Trung Quc quyt nh thit lp CBRC (y ban iu tit ngn hng) tch ri chc nng gim st v iu tit khi PBOC. Vic thit lp CBRC gip PBOC tp trung nhiu hn vo chc nng thc thi chnh sch tin t.11 Trong qu trnh ti c cu h thng ngn hng, c bit l ICBC, BOC v CCB c chuyn i thnh cc cng ty trch nhim hu hn mt thnh vin trc thuc Tng Cng ty u t Vn Nh nc Huijin thng 08/2004. Vo thng 10/2005, CCB thc hin pht hnh c phiu ln u (IPO) trn Th trng Chng khon Hng Kng, BOC ni gt vo thng 06/2006, v cui cng l ICBC thng 10/2006. n nay c ba ngn hng ny vn ang c nim yt hai th trng chng khon Hng Kng v Thng Hi. Nh hoch nh, chnh ph Trung Quc s chi khong 100 t -la cng c iu kin ti chnh ca ABC trc khi ngn hng ny ra cng chng.

James R. Barth, Rob Koepp, v Zhongfei Zhou, Ci cch ngn hng Trung Quc: To xc tc cho tng lai ti chnh ca t nc, bi nghin cu ca Vin Milken, 2004, tr. 6; v Christian Roland, Ci cch khu vc ngn hng n v Trung Quc Quan im so snh, tr. 13. Xem: http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN024226.pdf, 26/12/2006. 9 Laurence J Brahm, Chu Dung C v s chuyn i ca Trung Quc hin i (John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.: Singapore, 2002), tr. 178. 10 A. Garca-Herrero v D. Santabrbara, H thng ngn hng Trung Quc ang hng n u vi cuc ci cch hin nay?, CESifo Economic Studies, 2004, tr. 10 at: http://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0408001.html; v J. Bartel v Y. Huang, X l n xu ca cc ngn hng Trung Quc, 2000, tr.4, at: www.columbia.edu/cu/business/apec/publications/boninhuang.pdf. 11 Xem: http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/mod_en01/jsp/en010001.jsp, 26/12/2006; Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, op.cit., tr. 8; v Barth, Koepp, v Zhou, op.cit., tr. 8.

Mt ch quan trng trong s pht trin ca h thng ngn hng Trung Quc l cc hp tc x tn dng. S lng vo lc nh im ca cc t chc ny l gn 60.000, cc hp tc x nng thn v th u l mt phn khng th thiu trong h thng ngn hng ca Trung Quc. Chng ng vai tr quan trng nhng cng to ra nhng khim khuyt ng k cho h thng. 12 Vic ci cch cc hp tc x tn dng, c bit nng thn (RCC), c xem nh u tin hng u ca Chnh quyn trung ng Trung Quc trong 5 nm ti, bt u bng vic ci cch c cu s hu v qun tr, ng thi bm vo 20 t -la cho ngn sch ti cp vn. 13 Trong thi k ci cch kinh t v phn cp ngn sch, cc ngn hng khu vc a s thuc s hu ca cc chnh quyn a phng, c thnh lp. Vai tr hng u ca chng l hot ng nh nh ti tr cho cc k hoch pht trin ca a phng. y l mt trong nhng mi quan tm ln nht ca cc quan chc ngn hng Trung Quc, v nhiu ngn hng khu vc ny khng hiu qu. Do , cc ngn hng ny cng l trng tm ca k hoch ci cch c h thng. Lin quan n nhng tng tc ca Trung Quc vi cng ng ti chnh quc t, nc ny ti gia nhp IMF (Qu Tin t Quc t) v Ngn hng Th gii (WB) nm 1980, T chc Thng mi th gii (WTO) vo nm 2001, ng tng bc m ca khu vc ti chnh ca mnh vi cc nh ch quc t trong 5 nm. III.2. Cc chc nng chnh ca khu vc ti chnh III.2.1. Chnh sch tin t III.2.1.1. Vit Nam NHNN chu trch nhim v chnh sch tin t cng nh gim st v iu tit ngn hng. NHNN l c quan cp b thuc nhnh hnh php ca chnh ph, c tr s chnh t H Ni v chi nhnh hu ht cc tnh thnh. Thng c NHNN c b nhim v c vai tr ging nh mt b trng.14 Vi php nhn v c cu t chc ca mnh, cc chnh sch v hot ng ca NHNNchu nh hng mnh t chnh ph trung ng v cc chnh quyn a phng, nh th hin r trong bi cnh khng hong kinh t v m hin na y.15 Cc chi nhnh cp tnh ca NHNN c xem nh nhng c quan cp s ging nh nhng vn phng ngnh khc ca chnh ph, v mt chun mc nh v chi nhnh lun c p dng bt k a im, dn n vic c qu nhiu nhn vin v s can thip v mt hnh chnh ca a phng. Th tng Chnh ph ph duyt k hoch chuyn i NHNN thnh mt ngn hng trung ng hin i, v c Lut Ngn hng Nh nc v Lut Cc t chc Tn dng d kin s c iu chnh vo nm 2009 nhm ci t NHNN theo hng tng t nh chin lc ca Trung Quc.

12 13

Barth, Koepp, v Zhou, op.cit., tr. 5; Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, op.cit., tr. 11. Xem: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/31f2aba6-a1ce-11db-8bc1-0000779e2340,dwp_uuid=9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df0000779e2340.html, 13/01/2007. Da vo cc cuc tho lun ca cc tc gi vi gii chc Trung Quc. 14 Lut Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam 1997, sa i 2002, iu 1. 15 V d, Xem: Jonathan Pincus v V Thnh T Anh, Vit Nam: Con H gp nn v Tran Le Thuy, Tho kp n ngm ca Vit Nam, trong Far Easter Economic Review, vol. 17, no. 4 (05/2008), tr. 28-34 v tr. 34-36; Helen (Hong) Qiao, Vit Nam: lm pht tng, tng trng tht li v l trnh phn ng chnh sch kh d, Asia Economics Flash, Trang web Kinh t ton cu ca Goldman Sachs, 19/05/2008; v Stewart Newnham, VND: Vt qua im ti hn, Nghin cu ca Morgan Stanley, 28/05/2008.

Kt qu s l chuyn chc nng gim st ngn hng sang mt c quan mi, gip NHNN tp trung hon ton vo vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t.16 III.2.1.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc, trch nhim gim st ngn hng c chuyn ra khi PBOC khi thit lp CBRC vo nm 2003, iu ny cho php PBOC tp trung chuyn su vo qun l chnh sch tin t. Mc tiu ca sng kin ny l nhm ci thin cht lng ca vic gim st v thc thi chnh sch tin t bng cch cho php CBRC v PBOC chuyn mn ha vo nhng trch nhim chnh ca mnh. Khc vi NHNN, PBOC hin c c cu ging C quan D tr Lin bang ca M (FED), c tng hnh dinh t th , v cc hot ng thc t c phn chia cho cc chi nhnh khu vc. Vic thit lp chi nhnh vng thay v cp tnh l mt bi hc m Chu Dung C hc t Mao Trch ng: gim bt s can thip ca chnh quyn a phng vo hot ng qun i, Mao thit lp tm qun khu, mi khu s chu trch nhim nhiu tnh thay v mt tnh. Theo c cu t chc hin nay, nhiu ngi cho rng PBOC gim ng k s can thip ca chnh quyn a phng so vi c cu chi nhnh cp tnh trc y, nhng cng ging NHNN, s c lp ca PBOC vi chnh ph trung ng vn tng i thp theo chun mc quc t. C NHNN v PBOC u khng qun l chnh sch tin t bng mc tiu lm pht, thay vo h da vo vic kim sot c s tin. y l chnh sch th ng khng ph hp kim sot lm pht, v d dn n s mt gi ng tin ngm n, thm ht ti khon vng lai v khng hong ti chnh tin t tim tng.17 Mt s chuyn gia khuyn co nn thc hin chnh sch tin t tch cc hn, cng nh n nh mc tiu lm pht thp, xem nh l cht chn danh ngha cho chnh sch tin t.18 Hn na, c hai ngn hng trung ng u ph thuc nhiu vo cc bin php hnh chnh trc tip hn l nghip v hot ng th trng m thc thi chnh sch tin t. Thc t, nhiu chnh sch tin t dng nh theo sau thay v dn dt th trng, c bit l Vit Nam, c th y l mt du hiu khc v s thiu c lp ca ngn hng trung ng.

16 17

Qui hoch pht trin khu vc ngn hng n 2010 v nh hng 2020. Bnh lun ca ng L Xun Ngha, V trng V Chin lc pht trin ngn hng, Ngn hng Nh nc . 18 Marvin Goodfriend v Eswar Prasad, Thc thi chnh sch tin t Trung Quc, Nghin cu BIS s 31, tr. 30; Xem: http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap31c.pdf.

Hnh 1: Mi quan h gia tng trng kinh t, tng trng cung tin v lm pht

Ngun: WDI v NHNN.

Trong hai thp nin va qua, nn kinh t Trung Quc tng trng vi tc bnh qun hng nm l 10%, trong khi cung tin tng bnh qun 22% mt nm, cn lm pht bnh qun l 5,5%.19 Trong cng k, nn kinh t Vit Nam tng trng bnh qun 7,5%/nm, cung tin tng bnh qun 28%/nm, v mc tng gi bnh qun th hi chm hn Trung Quc tr thi gian gn y khi p lc lm pht tng nhanh Vit Nam. Khc vi Trung Quc, vn ln trong qun l chnh sch tin t Vit Nam l c n 3 loi tin trong giao dch thay v mt loi tin t. Vit Nam c l l nn kinh t -la ha nht trong khu vc, vi xp x 30% lng tin gi l bng la M.20 Vng cng l mt phng tin u t v trao i ph bin Vit Nam, lm tng thm thch thc cho NHNN trong vic qun l chnh sch tin t. III.2.2. iu tit v gim st khu vc ngn hng Vic gim st h thng ngn hng c hai thnh phn chnh: gim st t xa v gim st trc tip, hay cn gi l gim st t bn ngoi v gim st ti ch. Cch th nht l vic xem xt nh gi trn c s cc bo co thng k hay t xut ca cc t chc ti chnh, cn cch sau l vic ngn hng trung ng hay c quan gim st ngn hng thc hin nhng chuyn thm thc t hay thanh tra ti ch cc t chc ti chnh ny. Hai thnh phn ny lin quan chc ch vi nhau: kh c th m bo gi tr ca thng tin th cp m khng c xc minh thc t, v iu kin tin quyt cc chuyn thm thc t hiu qu li ph thuc vo s chun b y da vo thng tin c bo co. Cho n nay, vic thc hin hai thnh phn ny vn hn ch c Vit Nam ln
19 20

T l lm pht s thp hn nhiu nu loi b nhng bin ng ca u thp nin 1990. IMF, Vit Nam: Ph lc thng k, 2006, tr. 22; Xem: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr06423.pdf. Theo tc gi, con s ny hin cao hn.

Trung Quc, t to ra mt tm l khng chc chn v iu kin ti chnh thc s ca cc ngn hng c th, cng nh nhng nghi ng v tnh vng mnh ni chung ca h thng ngn hng ca mi nc. c bit quan tm l vic liu NHNN v CBRC c th xc nh mt cch nhanh chng v chnh xc thnh phn v cht lng danh mc vn vay ca mt ngn hng hay khng, iu ny c bit quan trng trong vic l gii xem mt ngn hng gp khng hong do vn thanh khon hay kh nng tr n. L do v triu chng ca s c ngn hng thng nh nhau: thiu tin mt p ng ngha v thanh ton ca ngn hng. Cng kh cho c NHNN v CBRC khi phi xc nhn s tun th nhng lut nh lin quan. V vi s sng to ca cc ngn hng v do tnh a dng ca ng tin, nn cc c quan ny kh c th pht hin c mt cuc khng hong ngm n trc khi n tht s xy ra. Mt vn khc i mt vi NHNN v CBRC trong vic gim st ngn hng ni ring v cc t chc ti chnh ni chung l hai nc u c khuynh hng kt hp cc dch v ngn hng, bo him v chng khon trong cng mt c cu ca ngn hng tng hp. Mc d c nhng im yu trong khu gim st v iu tit ngn hng, nng lc ca NHNN v CBRC vn tt hn nhiu so vi cc nh ch tng t vi nhim v gim st v iu tit th trng vn Vit Nam (SSC) v Trung Quc (CSRC v CIRC). Hn na, cn c nhng th trng ln hn nh th c phiu khng chnh thc (OTC) Vit Nam hot ng m khng chu s gim st no.21 III.2.3. Trung gian ti chnh III.2.3.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam, 5 ngn hng thng mi nh nc chim th phn a s trong tng ti sn ngn hng vo cui nm 2005, ln n 70,7%, phn th trng cn li c phn khc nh sau: 37 ngn hng thng mi c phn chim 17,2%; 31 chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi v 5 lin doanh chim 10,7%22; cc qu tn dng nhn dn ch chim 1,4%; v cc t chc ti chnh khc (VDB, VPSC, NHCSXH, v cc qu u t a phng) th khng c tnh n.23 Khc vi Trung Quc Vit Nam khng c ngn hng c 100% vn u t nc ngoi cho n cui nm 200624, nhng ngn hng nc ngoi vn c th phn ng k Vit Nam.25 Cng nh Trung Quc, cc ngn hng nc ngoi b rng buc v qui m hot ng, sn phm v vn huy ng khi khi s Vit Nam vo u nhng nm 1990. Theo thi gian, nhng rng

21

Nhat Linh, SSC cng b bo co ca IMF v th trng chng khon Vit Nam, VietnamNet Bridge, 02/032007 (http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2007/03/668812/) v Kay Johnson, S in r ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam, Time, 22/02/2007 (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1592579,00.html). 22 Ngn hng nc ngoi vn cha nm gi c phiu trong cc NHTMNN, nhng s hu c phiu tro ng cc ngn hng thng mi c phn. Nu tnh c s ny th th phn ca ngn hng nc ngoi c th n 20% Vit Nam. 23 NHNN, IMF, v tnh ton ca tc gi. 24 Theo cc cam kt WTO, ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi c php thnh lp v hot ng Vit Nam bt u t 01/04/2007. 25 Trong nhng nm gn y, cc ngn hng thng mi c phn c s gia tng ng k v th phn hot ng, nhng hin nay, th phn ca cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc vn chin hn 50%.

10

buc ny dn c bi b, cc ngn hng nc ngoi s c i x quc gia bnh ng vo nm 2010 theo cam kt WTO v Hip nh Thng mi Song phng Vit Nam Hoa K (BTA).26 Ngoi ngn hng, Vit Nam cng c cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng27: Nm cng ty ti chnh thuc s qun l ca 5 doanh nghip nh nc; 10 cng ty cho thu ti chnh trc thuc cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc; vi lin doanh; v cc doanh nghip u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDIEs).28 Hin ti, nhng t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng ny dng nh khng c vai tr g r rng ngoi vic hot ng nh cc trung gian ti chnh cho doanh nghip s hu nh nc. Mc d khng c cc ngn hng th nh Trung Quc, Vit Nam cng c c cu tng t di hnh thc cc Qu u t Pht trin a phng (LDIF). Cc qu ny hot ng theo s iu chnh ca Lut Ngn sch v khng chu s chi phi ca cc qui nh ngn hng. C ba nh ch ti chnh quan trng Vit Nam l VDB, VPSC, v NHCSXH. n cui nm 2006, tng d n vn vay ca VDB l 85 ngn t ng,29 ch hi thp hn so vi VBARD c tng d n cao nht lc . Thc cht VDB l mt c ch ngoi ngn sch chuyn ngun lc cho hot ng u t ca doanh nghip nh nc v cc d n thuc nh nc, vi mt trong nhng mun ch yu l t VPSC, tri phiu v vn ODA. VPSC c thnh lp 1999 thuc VNPT (Tp on Bu chnh Vin thng Vit Nam); tng t nh m hnh tit kim ca Nht, mi hot ng u t bu in. Nhim v chnh ca VPSC l huy ng vn sau cho VDB vay li, v mua chng khon ca chnh ph. Tng vn huy ng ca VPSC l khong 50 ngn t ng vo cui 2005, nhiu hn mt na tng mc bnh qun ca bn ngn hng thng mi nh nc. Sau cng, NHCSXH c thit lp nm 1995 phc v cc i tng chnh sch, c tng vn v d n xp x 20 ngn t ng vo cui nm 2005.30 So vi Trung Quc, h thng ngn hng Vit Nam c qui m nh hn, c v tuyt i ln tng i, tnh theo t l nn kinh t quc gia. n cui nm 2006, tng d n ca h thng ngn hng Vit Nam l khong 693 ngn t ng,31 hay 71,3% GDP. T l tn dng trn GDP ca Vit Nam, l thc o v su ti chnh, t ra khim tn khng ch so vi Trung Quc m cn so vi cc nc khc trong khu vc. Tuy nhin, vi tc tng trng tn dng hng nm hn 25% trong thi gn y, lng d n c cho l s vt qua GDP trong thi gian ngn. Nh IMF v WB lu , tc tng trng tn dng cao c th to p lc lm pht v dn nn kinh t n tnh trng qu nng, kt qu c th gy bt n nh kinh t v m v phng hi n s pht trin lu di. 32 Tng t nh Trung Quc, h thng ngn hng ca Vit Nam ch yu do cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc chim lnh. Hn na, cc sn phm v dch v ngn hng vn cn manh mn v khng c cp nht do hot ng ca cc ngn hng ni a vn xoay quanh vic huy ng vn v cho vay. Thu nhp chnh ca h l t ngun cho vay, v chnh lch li sut thm ch cn cao hn Trung Quc v cc nc ty u; chnh lch li sut rng c tnh hn 2% Vit Nam . V d, nm 2005, chnh lch li sut ca cc ngn hng thng mi c cho l hiu qu nht Vit
26 27

Ph lc cam kt dch v gia nhp WTO ca Vit Nam, tr. 48. Cc t chc ti chnh thng c phn loi l t chc ngn hng v phi ngn hng. Tuy nhin, Lut Vit Nam phn loi t chc ti chnh l cc t chc tn dng ngn hng v tn dng phi ngn hng. 28 Xem: http://www.sbv.gov.vn/home/hethongTCTD.asp, 25/08/2006. 29 Xem: http://www.svv.gov.vn/home/TinThoibao.asp?tin=717, 25/08/2006. 30 Xem: http://www.mof.gov.vn/Default.aspx?tabid=612&ItemID=34869. 31 Thng k ca NHNN, 2005. 32 Nm 2007, ln u tin tng ti sn ngn hng vt hn GDP, nhng tng d n th cha ti 70% GDP v n gia nm 2009, d n tn dng vt qu mt ln GDP .

11

Nam nh Sacombank (Ngn hng Thng mi C phn Si Gn Thng Tn), ACB, v Vietcombank ln lt l 3,9, 2,8, v 2,9 phn trm,33 cn cc hot ng ngoi cho vay ca h th rt hn ch. Hiu qu hot ng v nng lc ti chnh ngn hng cng cn yu, c bit i vi cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc: h s ROA (li nhun trn ti sn) ch c 0,6% v CAR (h s vn) l khong 5% vo cui 200534; cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc c kt qu kinh doanh thp nht. Theo s liu chnh thc th t l n xu l rt thp: tr BIDV vi t l n xu l 10,8%, cn ca cc ngn hng khc th an ton mc thp hn 5%, nhiu ngn hng c cha ti 2% .35 Tuy nhin, cc t chc quc t li cho rng con s ny phi t 15 n 20%, v mt s nh nghin cu c lp c tnh s ny l gn 30%.36,37 c bit ng lo ngi l tc ng tiu cc tim n ca cc ngn hng chnh sch v c nh hng bt li ln kh nng phn b vn mt cch hiu qu. C nhiu quan ngi v kh nng huy ng vn ca VPSC, v n c th ly i ngun vn m cc ngn hng khc c th huy ng cho khu vc t nhn ang tng trng vay li.38 Vic gii quyt mi quan ngi ny l kh rc ri v cc kha cnh chnh tr: VDB ch yu tp trung vo doanh nghip nh nc v hot ng ca h l do B Ti chnh chi phi m dng nhkhng l thuc vo nhng qui nh v s gim st ca NHNN. iu ny t ra ri ro ln, v VDB hin nay l mt trong nhng t chc ti chnh ln nht Vit Nam vi lng d n c tnh hn 10% GDP. Bng 1: Tng quan cc ngn hng Vit Nam 2005 n v tnh: ngn t VND
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Hng mc Vn ch s hu Tng ti sn Thu nhp trc thu Tin gi khch hng Cho vay khch hng Li nhun trn ti sn Li nhun trn vn Th phn ti sn Vn/tng ti sn (1/2) NHTMNN NHTMCP 29,4 622,8 4,4 453,0 392,3 0,6% 11,9% 60,4% 4,7% 11,4 151,7 2,2 95,1 80,4 1,2% 15,8% 14,7% 7,5% NHNNg 8,9 81,2 1,1 42,0 45,8 1,1% 9,7% 7,9% 10,9% NHLD 1,5 13,1 0,2 6,1 6,5 1,3% 11,1% 1,3% 11,4% QTD n.a. 12,3 0,2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,2% n.a. NHCS n.a. 150,0 n.a. ---n.a. n.a. n.a. 14,5% n.a. Tng 51,2 1,031 7,9 596,2 525,0 0,6% 12,3% 100% 5,0%

33 34

i tm b mt li nhun ngn hng, Thi bo kinh t Si Gn, s 2/2007, ngy 25/01/2007, tr. 12. nh gi xp hng ca Fitch, Bo co quc gia: H thng ngn hng Vit Nam , 2006, tr. 5. 35 Xem: http://www.hvnh.edu.vn/modules.php?name=News&op=detailsnews&mid=452&mcid=5 ; http://www.dddn.com.vn/Desktop.aspx/TinTuc/TintucSukien/BIDV_cong_bo_ty_le_no_xau_theo_thong_le_quoc_te/ ; 08/02/2007. 36 Hunh Th Du, X l n xu ca h thng ngn hng Vit Nam ,; kinh nghim t Trung Quc v cc nc, 2004, tr. 2; http://www.fetp.edu.vn/index.cfm?rframe=/research_casestudy/facresearchlist.htm. 37 Trong mt vi nm gn y, mt s ngn hng thng mi thu c nhng khon li nhun cng nh chu thua l ln t kinh doanh chng khon, nht l c phiu. Nhng hot ng mang tnh u c may ri cao khng nhng khng ci thin hot ng, to s n nh trong hot ng kinh doanh m cn to ra nhiu ri ro hn trong hot ng ca cc ngn hng ni ring v h thng ti chnh ni chung. Thm vo , h s vn (CAR), hiu qu hot ng cng nh n xu theo s liu cng b chnh thc c s ci thin ng k trong thi gian qua, nhng do mc minh bch cha cao nn cu hi thc s vn c ci thin n mc no vn ang c quan tm rt nhiu. 38 World Bank, nh gi khu vc Ngn hng: Vit Nam, 06/2002, tr. 46-7; Dufhues, tr. 35; Fitch, tr. 5.

12

Ngun: Tc gi tng hp t nhiu ngun.

III.2.3.2. Trung Quc Bn ngn hng thng mi nh nc ln nht chim n 54,6% tng ti sn ngn hng vo cui 2004. Nhng ngn hng ny khng ch hot ng trn th trng ni a, h cn c chi nhnh nc ngoi. Hn na, ba trong s ny ra cng chng, mc d nh nc vn s hu a s. Phn th trng cn li Trung Quc c phn khc nh sau: 3 ngn hng chnh sch chim 11,4% ti sn, 11 ngn hng thng mi c phn chim 15%; 112 ngn hng th m mi ngn hng u gn lin vi mt thnh ph chim 5,4%, 191 chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi v ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi (gm 15 ngn hng c vn u t nc ngoi, 157 chi nhnh v 11 chi nhnh ph) th ch chim 1,6%;39 c xp x 35.000 hp tc x tn dng nng thn v 1000 hp tc x tn dng th, tng cng chim 10,4%; v 1,5% tng ti sn cn li thuc v cc t chc ti chnh khc.40 Cc ngn hng nc ngoi c thnh lp Trung Quc t 1981. Ban u, qui m hot ng v dch v ca h cn b hn ch theo qui nh. Theo thi gian, nhng rng buc ny c bi b, v n nay trn nguyn tc th cc ngn hng nc ngoi c i x quc gia bnh ng theo nhng qui nh ca WTO.41 Tuy nhin, hot ng ca khi ngn hng nc ngoi vn cn rt khim tn. Cng c cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng thuc trch nhim ca PBOC v CBRC nh cc cng ty ti chnh, cho thu ti chnh, cc cng ty u t v tn thc, cng ty hp ng tng lai ti chnh, ti tr tn dng v cng ty x l n. H thng ngn hng Trung Quc kh ln khi so vi nn kinh t. Nm 2005, tng tn dng ni a l 3 ngn t -la (24,8 ngn t Nhn dn t),42 tng ng 150% GDP. H thng ny cng kh ln so vi th gii, ng hng th 5 sau M, Nht, c v Anh. Tuy nhin, hin cng c quan ngi v tnh vng mnh ca h thng ngn hng Trung Quc. V vn do cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc chim lnh nn t c s cnh tranh, ngn hng Trung Quc c chnh lch li sut tng i cao khong 1,79%, so vi 1,38% cc nc ty u.43 S thiu cnh tranh cng l nguyn nhn ca tnh trng thiu hiu qu trong hot ng. Vn vay chin 61% tng ti sn ngn hng, vi 85% cc khon vay n tay doanh nghip. Trong phm vi danh mc vn vay kinh doanh, mc d doanh nghip t nhn hin to ra hn GDP ca Trung Quc, nhng h ch nhn c 27% tng tn dng, phn cn li 73% dnh cho doanh nghip nh nc. Nhng hnh thc cho vay hin i nh vn vay c th chp v ti chnh tiu dng chim t l rt nh trong tng hot ng cho vay. V cc hnh thc u t ngn hng khc cng chim phn nh trong tng ti sn ngn hng. Xt v n, lng tin gi v vn huy ng ngn hn chim 89,1% tng ti sn,

39

Nu xem vic cc t chc ti chnh nc ngoi ang nm gi c phiu ca NHTMNN c phn ha nh l th phn tng ng th th phn ca h l khong 10%. Tuy nhin, v s thay i s hu ch mi din ra trong nm ngoi, nn vai tr ca cc t chc ti chnh nc ngoi vn cha c nh gi. 40 Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, op.cit., Table 1, tr. 342; Nicolas Hope v Fred Hu, Ci cch h thng ngn hng Trung Quc: u t chin lc nc ngoi c th h tr n mc no? , Trung tm pht trin quc t Stanford, 2006, tr. 44; Xem: http://scid.stanford.edu/pdf/SCID276.pdf. 41 Li Ruogu, Nhn li ci cch ti chnh Trung Quc, 2001, tr. 15, http://www.emeap.org/review/0111/speach.pdf. 42 Xem: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2005S4.htm, 22/08/2006. 43 Theo Ligang Songbieen, li sut tng mnh vo cui thp nin 90. i vi khon vay k hn mt nm, li sut tng ng 3,6% vo thng 6/1999 (Huang, 2006, tr. 122).

13

trong khi con s ny cc nc ty u l 78,1%, cho thy s khan him dch v ngn hng cho i tng khch hng Trung Quc. Do cc chun mc th trng truyn thng vn cha c p dng rng ri, nn vn vay c cht lng rt km, v t l n xu kh cao. Trung Quc s dng s liu n xu 2004 l 480 t -la, hay 36% GDP.44 Tuy nhin, Ernst & Young c tnh n xu ca h thng ngn hng Trung Quc c th ln n 900 t, hay 40% tng vn vay v 55 GDP, mc d vo nm 2006 h rt li bo co ny.45 Theo cc s liu chnh thc c CBRC cng b, tng n xu ca h thng ngn hng Trung Quc (khng k s n chuyn sang cho cc cng ty qun l ti sn AMC) l 170 t -la tnh n qu 3/2006, trong cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc chim 132 t.46 Bt k con s tht s l bao nhiu, n xu chc chn l mt vn nghim trng trong h thng ngn hng Trung Quc. Hot ng v li nhun ca ngn hng ch yu ph thuc vo hot ng cho vay, chim n 80,8% li nhun hot ng. thu nhp t hot ng ngoi cho vay chim t l nh trong tng thu nhp ngn hng. Ngc li, t l thu nhp rng t li sut v khng phi li sut cc nc ty u l 57-43. Hiu qu hot ng cng rt thp. Nm 2003 ROA v ROE l 0,14 v 3,05%, trong khi cc ngn hng ty u l 1,43 v 13, 57%. Mc d c s h tr to ln t pha nh nc vi nhiu t ti cp vn, h s CAR vn thp do hot ng khng hiu qu v t l n xu cao. n cui 2003, h s CAR l 6,73%, so vi 8% theo tiu chun quc t v mc bnh qun 12,35% ca ty u.47 Cn CAR ca cc ngn hng c phn ha th ci thin ng k. Bng 2: Tng quan cc ngn hng Trung Quc t 1997 n 2003
Hng mc ROA (%)
NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc Ngn hng chnh sch

1997 0,43
0,19 1,05 0,78 1,5 0,12

1998 0,22
0,09 0,75 0,58 1,03 0,07

1999 0,2
0,13 0,49 0,45 0,57 0,06

2000 0,26
0,22 0,41 0,4 0,43 0,14

2001 0,23
0,16 0,41 0,39 0,46 0,26

2002 0,22
0,18 0,37 0,34 0,51 0,01

2003 0,14
0,08 0,32 0,29 0,47 0,03

ROE (%)
NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc Ngn hng chnh sch

9,39
5,94 14,61 13,76 15,42 2.68

4,19
2,08 10,55 10,47 10,62 1.4

3,48
2,35 7,22 8,69 5,86 1.21

4,59
4,07 6,49 8,42 4,54 2.97

4,21
3,16 8,1 9,5 5,86 4.99

4,48
3,78 9,33 9,17 9,81 0.23

3,05
1,73 8,56 8,07 10 1

Thu nhp rng t li (%)

NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc
44

2.03
2.4 2.49 2.38 2.68

2.07
2.47 2.5 2.57 2.4

1.9
2.07 2.25 2.2 2.32

2.22
2.35 2.24 2.3 2.14

1.93
1.98 2.1 2.32 1.43

1.95
2.02 2.18 2.21 2.04

2.03
2.11 2.19 2.27 1.89

Hunh Th Du, Quan h ba bn gia Nh nc Doanh nghip Ngn hng, 2005, tr. 2 at http://www.fetp.edu.vn/index.cfm?rframe=/research_casestudy/facresearchlist.htm. 45 The Financial Times, 4/5/2006 at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-05/15/content_590282.htm, 09/02/2007; v Ernst & Young, Bo co NPL ton cu 2006, http://www.chinalawblog.com/chinalawblog/files/ey_rehc_nonperformingloans_may20061.pdf . 46 Xem: http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/english/home/jsp/docView.jsp?docID=2887, 08/02/2007. 47 Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, op.cit., tr. 309-311.

14

Ngn hng chnh sch

0.06

0.02

0.81

1.63

1.47

1.01

1.21

Chi tiu/thu nhp (%)

NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc Ngn hng chnh sch

54.51
49.31 49.56 56.05 38.61 65.94

65.4
66.33 59.96 63.13 54.47 34.25

62.22
59.16 64.07 55.33 77.17 48.49

56.61
56.18 59.8 52.24 75.2 23.47

54.51
55.52 51.17 50.48 54.47 6.23

55.52
51.76 50.92 50.64 52.04 64.93

51.68
47.87 45.67 44.71 49.52 67.22

Vn/tng ti sn (%)
NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc Ngn hng chnh sch

4.54
3.15 7.2 5.68 9.72 4.6

6.03
5.61 7.01 5.36 9.63 4.73

5.72
5.28 6.6 4.95 9.7 4.59

5.56
5.32 5.99 4.53 9.07 4.72

5.16
5.04 4.22 3.86 5.91 5.98

4.54
4.59 3.81 3.56 4.78 2.81

4.34
4.38 3.76 3.55 4.57 2.95

Vn/n (%)
NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc Ngn hng chnh sch

4.76
3.26 7.76 6.02 10.76 4.82

6.41
5.94 7.54 5.66 10.66 4.97

6.07
5.57 7.07 5.2 10.75 4.81

5.89
5.62 6.37 4.75 9.97 4.96

5.44
5.31 4.41 4.01 6.28 6.36

4.76
4.81 3.96 3.69 5.02 2.9

4.55
4.58 3.97 3.77 4.79 3.04

DP ri ro/vn vay (%)

NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc Ngn hng chnh sch

1.03
1 1.83 1.05 3.06 0.73

1.26
1.12 2.43 1.63 3.84 1.06

1.55
1.52 2.99 2.23 4.69 0.79

1.46
1.24 3.82 3.94 3.52 0.73

1.81
1.66 2.93 3.35 0.8 1.64

1.81
1.82 2.32 2.6 1.01 1.02

3.3
3.91 2.08 2.24 1.32 1.01

DP ri ro (triu -la)
NHTMNN Ngn hng thng mi khc Ngn hng c phn Loi hnh khc Ngn hng chnh sch

2,197
2,109 74 74 0 0

2,957
2,409 113 113 0 436

3,662
3,203 371 355 15 89

6,971
5,565 756 715 41 650

10,277
7,989 1,008 906 102 1,281

10,379
8,798 1,582 1,229 353 0

14,061
11,025 3,036 2,603 433 0

Source: Garca-Herrero and Santabrbara.

15

Hnh 2: Phn phi ti sn h thng ngn hng ca Vit Nam v Trung Quc48

Khc HTX tn dng NH nc ngoi JSCBs NH th NH chnh sch SOCBs Vit Nam (2005) Trung Quc (2004)

Ngun: NHNN, Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, IMF, cng c tnh ca tc gi.

III.2.4. Cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng v cc th trng ti chnh49 III.2.4.1. Th trng c phiu III.2.4.1.1. Vit Nam Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon TPHCM (HOSTC) bt u hot ng vi 2 cng ty nim yt v ngy 28/07/2000.50 K t ch s VN-Index thng xuyn tng gim phn nh iu kin th trng lun thay i v i khi bin ng. Sau gn 8 nm (22/06/2008), ch s Vit Nam-index l 368, ng vi tc tng trng hng nm 17,8%. Mc d ch s ny l kh cao so vi cc trung tm giao dch khc vi iu kin tng t, nhng n vn thp hn mc nh 69% vo thng 3/2007 khi ch s t 1.171 im. n cui thng 04/2008, c khong 300 cng ty c nim yt trn hai th trng ca Vit Nam vi tng mc vn ha l 20 t -la, tng ng 28% GDP ca Vit Nam. Ging nh Trung Quc, vai tr ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam
48

Cc ngn hng chnh sch Vit Nam gm VBSP, VDB, v VPSC; cc qu u t pht trin a phng c phn loi nh l ngn hng th. 49 c c bc tranh hon chnh hn v s tin ha v nhng c tnh ca th trng vn Vit Nam , xem: Vo Tri Thanh v Pham Chi Quang, Qun l cc dng vn: Tnh hung Vit Nam, Nghin cu tho lun ca Vin ADB s 105, 05/2008, tr. 12-19. c c bc tranh hon chnh hn v s tin ha v nhng c tnh ca th trng vn Trung Quc, xem: Franklin Allen, Jun Qian, v Meijun Qian, H thng ti chnh Trung Quc: Qu kh, hin ti v tng lai, bn tho iu chnh, 21/07/2005, tr. 25-30. 50 HOSTC tr thnh S Giao dch Chng khon TPHCM nm 2007.

16

ang gia tng, nhng vn kh khim tn so vi vai tr ni tri ca cc ngn hng. Mc d kh c kt t liu, nhng tng mc vn ha th trng OTC theo c tnh l ln hn 3 hay 4 ln so vi th trng chnh thc.51 Th trng chng khon Vit Nam cng tng i km thanh khon, d rng khi lng giao dch gia tng nhanh chng cho n thng 10/2007: lng giao dch hng ngy bnh qun vo thng 8/2007 l 51,5 triu -la, gp su ln con s 8,3 triu -la ca 2006. Tuy nhin, trong su thng u nm 2008, thi gian m chnh ph thu hp bin giao dch, th gi tr giao dch gim xung cn cha ti 10 triu -la. III.2.4.1.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc th trng chng khon c thnh lp vo u nm 1990 gm hai s giao dch: S Giao dch Chng khon Thng Hi nm 1990 v S Giao dch Chng Thm Quyn nm 1991. C hai loi c phiu c giao dch trn hai th trng ny: c phiu loi A bng ni t c giao dch bi cc nh u t trong nc v nc ngoi, nhng ngi hi yu cu ca Trung Quc c nu r trong Qui nh i vi cc Nh u t T chc Nc ngoi iu kin; v c phiu loi B bng ngoi t (-la M sn Thng Hi v -la Hng Kng sn Thm Quyn), n nm 2001 vn ch dnh cho nh u t nc ngoi, nhng nay m cho nh u t ni a c tit kim ngoi t hp php. Sau gn 17 nm (ngy 22/06/2008), ch s thnh phn Thng Hi (Shanghai Composite), mt trong nhng ch s chnh, t 2.760 im, vi mc tng trng bnh qun hng nm l 21,5%, kh cao so vi cc th trng chng khon khc c cng iu kin, nhng vn thp hn 55% so vi nh im ca n vo thng 10/2007 l 6.092 im. n thng 06/2007, mc vn ha th trng l 17,21 ngn t NDT (2,25 ngn t -la M),52 hay bng 89,3% GDP Trung Quc nm 2006. Mc d vai tr ca th trng chng khon ang gia tng Trung Quc, nhng n vn khim tn so vi vai tr ca ngn hng. Hnh 3: Xu hng ch s VN-Index v ch s tng hp Thng Hi t 1990

Ngun: Global Financial Data

51 52

Thanh v Quang, op.cit., tr. 13. Tn Hoa X, 03/06/2007

17

Hnh 3 so snh su th ca Vit Nam-index vi Sch s tng hp Thng Hi t nm 1990. c im quan trng ca cc giao dch th trng chng khon v xu th c Vit Nam ln Trung Quc l gi c phiu v hnh vi ca nh u t mang nng tnh u c hn l da vo gi tr c bn ca cc cng ty nim yt, nh th hin qua s bin ng khi lng cc k ln vi tp trung tng i thp53; gi c phiu chuyn dch ng thi54; v tng quan gia cc giao dch mua v bn cao.55 iu ny thng c qui l do thiu bo v quyn ca c ng thiu s v hot ng gim st v iu tit yu km, kt qu l giao dch mang tnh ni gin v lng on bn trong.56 III.2.4.2. Th trng tri phiu III.2.4.2.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam, vo cui 2007, tri phiu ang lu hnh t 9,79 t -la, tng ng 13,7% GDP, trong tri phiu chnh ph chim 8,28 t -la hay 84,6%.57 S chng khon n cn li bao gm tri phiu gio dc v c s h tng, tri phiu chnh quyn TPHCM v H Ni ,58 tri phiu DAF/VDB (Qu H tr Pht trin/Ngn hng Pht trin Vit Nam),59 tri phiu ti cp vn ngn hng thng mi nh nc,60 tri phiu ca BIDV, tri phiu chuyn i ca Vietcombank, v cc loi tri phiu doanh nghip khc. III.2.4.2.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc, cng vo cui 2007, tri phiu lu hnh tng tr gi 1,69 ngn t -la tng ng 50% GDP, trong tri phiu chnh ph chim 1,53 ngn t -la, tng ng 90,7% ton b lng tri phiu ang lu hnh. c Vit Nam ln Trung Quc, th trng tri phiu u kh nh so vi vn vay ngn hng (c bit Vit Nam), v hai ni a s tri phiu u do chnh ph pht hnh. Tnh thanh khon ca th trng tri phiu u rt thp, v a s nh u t gia tri phiu cho n khi ht hn do khng c c hi u t thay th c th so snh. Vit Nam, phn ln tri phiu di hn (10 n 15 nm), khong 40% tng s, l c mua bi cc cng ty bo him; cn tri phiu ngn hn (hu ht l 5 nm) th c cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc mua v.61
53

Bin ng khi lng l tng khi lng thay i trong nm tnh theo phn trm tng mc vn ha th trng; s tp trung l t l tng mc vn ha th trng ca mt giao dch c o bng mc vn ha tng hp ca cc doanh nghip ln nht nm trong nhm u 5% (lng vn ha). 54 ng thi ngha l gi c phiu tng v gim cng lc, ging nh hnh vi by n. 55 Tng quan cao ngha l cc giao dch mua v bn xy ra trong cng thi k, chng hn trong ngy. 56 Cc v d v ba ch bo t Trung Quc c tm tt trong on ny, cng nh hng lot cc v kin chng li giao dch v lng on ni gin. Xem: Allen, Qian, v Qian, op.cit., tr. 25 -28. 57 Cc tnh ton ca tc gi t nhiu ngun chnh thc ln khng chnh thc, s liu ny ln hn nhiu so vi s liu trong bi ca Thanh v Quang (tr. 17). 58 TPHCM v H Ni c thm quyn pht hnh tri phiu th ln n 100% ngn sch u t hng nm, hn mc ca cc thnh ph khc l 30% ngn sch u t hng nm. 59 Theo Thanh v Quang, op.cit., tr. 17, d n vn vay ca VDB tng ng 20% GDP, khong c ti tr t vn ODA; na kia c ti tr t vic pht hnh tri phiu v tin gi tit kim do VPSC chuyn sang di hnh thc cho vay. 60 Theo Thanh v Quang, op.cit., tr. 17, nm 2001 chnh ph ti ti tr 10,9 ngn t VND cho NPL (bng 2,5% GDP nm 2000) trong 9,7 ngn t VND l tri phiu ti cp vn v phn cn li l tin mt theo chng trnh ti c cu NHTMNN. 61 Thanh v Quang, op.cit., tr. 17.

18

III.2.4.3. Th trng bo him Trung Quc bt u m ca th trng bo him trong thp nin 1980, v Vit Nam l thp nin 1990. T khi gia nhp WTO (Trung Quc nm 2001 v Vit Nam 2007), c hai nc u cam kt m ca th trng bo him ni a cho nc ngoi tham gia. Th trng bo him Vit Nam v Trung Quc kh nh so vi tim nng, trn c s tnh hnh dn s v xu hng kinh t, cng nh so vi qui m ca cc th trng bo him nc khc. Cho n nay, tng doanh thu ca hnh thc bo him nhn th v phi nhn th l cha n 2% GDP Vit Nam v cha ti 3% GDP Trung Quc. Nm 2007 doanh thu bo him tnh theo u ngi Vit Nam l khong 13 -la, bng 1/3 ca Trung Quc, 1/8 ca Thi Lan v 1/131 ca Hn Quc nm 2005. III.2.4.4. Ti chnh vi m III.2.4.4.1. Vit Nam Ti chnh vi m l mt hn hp hot ng chnh thc, bn chnh thc v phi chnh thc. Chnh quyn xem y l phng tin xa ngho hn l trung gian ti chnh. Nh nc cho rng c th h tr cho ngi ngho tt nht bng cch chuyn giao thu nhp thng qua cc chng trnh tn dng v tit kim hn l thc y cc dch v ti chnh bn vng cho cc h c thu nhp thp v doanh nghip c th. Do chnh ph c gng gip ngi ngho thng qua cc chng trnh c bit do cc t nhc ti chnh nh nc thc hin, v thng qua h thng vn tn dng, bao gm cc t chc c s kim sot mt phn ca nh nc. Cc t chc phi chnh ph (NGO) cng ng vai tr quan trng: theo T chc Lao ng Quc t (ILO), hin c 57 NGO quc t ang cung cp dch v ti chnh vi m ch yu l tn dng, Vit Nam.62 Mc d vic NGO thc hin ti chnh vi m l mnh t mu m th nghim v i mi, nhng sng kin ny thng khng bn vng v chng khng th m rng hn qui m bao ph vng a l. Phn ln ti chnh vi m l hot ng phi chnh thc gi l Hi hay H; y l mt dng ca hnh thc hip hi tn dng v tit kim xoay vng (ROSCAs) ca ngi Vit Nam dnh cho b con, bn b, v hng xm qui t v phn phi tit kim. c mt thi ROSCAs l bt hp php Vit Nam, nhng nay c php hot ng. Mc d hi hay h gip huy ng tin tit kim, nhng chc nng ca chng cng mang tnh x hi nh t chc ti chnh, do hnh thc ny c tnh b sung hn l thay th cho dch v ti chnh chnh thc. C gn 1000 qu tn dng nhn dn vi khong 10 ngn t ng vn vay lu hnh v cng c vai tr trong vic cung cp dch v ti chnh vi m (ch yu l vn vay) cho ngi ngho. Tm li, Vit Nam vn cha c mt m hnh trn c s thng mi cho vic cung cp dch v tit kim, tn dng v thanh ton cho phn ln ngi dn, c bit n nh s ng khng ngn hng. Do , vn cn rt nhiu tim nng pht trin mt khu vc ti chnh mang tnh bao qut hn Vit Nam.63 III.2.4.4.2. Trung Quc Tnh hnh Trung Quc cng ging vi Vit Nam, ti chnh vi m cng l hn hp hot ng chnh thc, bn chnh thc v phi chnh thc. Phn ln chi tiu do chnh ph thc hin theo cc chng trnh xa ngho ca mnh, ch yu thc hin thng qua cc th ch nh nc. NGO,
62

Le Lan v Nhu-An Tran, Hng n khu vc ti chnh vi m kh thi Vit Nam: Cc vn v thch thc, lot bi nghin cu ca ILO Vit Nam s 5 (H Ni: Vn phng ILO Vit Nam, 2005), tr. 1. 63 c mt phn tch r rng v tim nng v nhng thch thc cho vic pht trin ti chnh vi m Vit Nam, xem: Bo co tm tt hi ngh: thc hin s chuyn tip sang nn ti chnh vi m Vit Nam c iu tit v bn vng v mt ti chnh, Hi ngh ti chnh vi m Vit Nam CEP, 14 -16/05/2007, TPHCM.

19

cng phi hp vi chnh ph v cc nh ti tr nc ngoi, cng trin khai nhiu d n th im ti chnh vi m. Tuy nhin nhng d n th im ny cng c cng kh khn nh Vit Nam, l lm th no duy tr v nhn rng cc m hnh ny khi ngun ti tr v ngun ngn sch nh nc khng cn? Trung Quc cng c ROSCA, v cng gi l hi, vi chc nng ging nh cc nc khc. Tuy nhin, hi Trung Quc dn chuyn hnh thc t mt c ch cp c s chuyn cung cp ngun tin tit kim v tn dng da vo cng ng cho cc h gia nh thu nhp thp thnh cc chng trnh u t theo dng kim t thp. Trung Quc cn c mng li cc t chc ti chnh nng thn ton quc to nn tng cho qui m ln hn, v gip cho vic cung cp bn vng dch v ti chnh vi m: l cc HTX tn dng nng thn (HTXTDNTs). Vic ci cch cc HTXTDNTs l u tin hng u ca chnh ph, th hin qua vic bm ngn sch ti cp vn 20 t -la gn y, cng vi nhng n lc hp nht cc HTXTDNT cp huyn x v tng cng c cu s hu cng nh qun tr ca chng. Mc d vic cung cp tn dng vi m ca HTXTDNT cng gp nhng kh khn tng t cp c s nh kh khn ca ngn hng thng mi nh nc cp quc gia, c th l chnh sch hay hot ng cho vay trn c s chnh tr vi cc x nghip hng trn (TVE), HTXTDNT vn rt thnh cng trong vic huy ng tin tit kim. n cui nm 2001, HTXTDNT c 210 t -la tin tit kim, chim 12% lng tin gi ca tt c t chc ti chnh Trung Quc, v 80% lng tin tit kim ny n t cc h gia nh nng thn.64 III.2.4.5. Cc t chc ti chnh v th trng ngn hng so vi phi ngn hng Vit Nam th trng chng khon mi n 2006 mi khi sc, v lc 14 t -la tng gi tr ca tt c doanh nghip nim yt cng vi 5 t -la tri phiu chnh ph v doanh nghip cng ch chim 20% tng ti sn ti chnh v bng 30% GDP. Trung Quc th trng chng khon c thnh lp u thp nin 1990, nhng n cui 2005, gi tr th trng ca tt c cng ty nim yt v tri phiu ang lu hnh ch chim 20% tng ti sn ti chnh v bng 40% GDP. Hn na, nh nc nm gia gn 2/3 tng s c phiu ca cc cng ty nim yt, v nhng c phiu ny hu nh khng bao gi c giao dch.65 Cc ngn hng tip tc chim u th trong vic cung cp cc dch v ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc, nh trong hnh 4 bn di. Hnh 4: C cu ti sn ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc (% GDP)
Trung Q uc ('05) Vit Nam ('06)

40

80

120

160

200

Ti sn ngn hng

C phiu

Tri phiu

Ngun: WB v tnh ton ca tc gi

64

c thm s liu ti chnh vi m, v s tm lc r rng v ti chnh vi m Trung Quc, xem : Rou mei Sun, S pht trin ti chnh vi m Trung Quc, Chng trnh khu vc ti chnh Trng Qun l Nh nc Kennedy, ti liu nghin cu s 1, 08/2003. 65 Goodfriend v Prasad, op.cit., tr. 29.

20

240

PHN IV: CI CCH KHU VC TI CHNH VIT NAM V TRUNG QUC IV.1. T do ha khu vc ti chnh IV.1.1. Cc bin php kim sot li sut IV.1.1.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam, qu trnh t do ha h thng ngn hng cui thp nin 1980 din ra kh rng, hu nh mi t chc kinh t u c php huy ng vn t cng chng v cho vay li theo nhng iu khon vn vay t quyt nh. S on tuyt vi qu kh ny qu thnh cng n lm ni bt nhng him ha ca s t do ha ti chnh khi khng c gim st v iu tit y 66. Sau mt lot nhng gin on gy bt n, cc hot ng tn dng b tht cht nghim ngt, li sut vn vay v tin gi u b ct gim. T 1992, NHNN c gng rng buc li sut danh ngha vi ch s gi tiu dng trong n lc m bo li sut thc dng. Chnh lch li sut cho vay gia cc khu vc kinh t c hy b nm 1993. Bt u t 1995, NHNN cho php cc ngn hng thng mi t do n nh li sut tin gi gia tng cnh tranh trong vic huy ng vn, nhng chnh lch li sut ti a gia vn vay v tin gi c hn ch mc 0,35% mt thng. Nh vy cc ngn hng gin tip vn chu s chi phi ca cc mc trn li sut cho vay v tin gi. Khi s cnh tranh li sut gia cc ngn hng bt u gia tng th hn mc chnh lch 0,35% mt thng dn tr nn khng hiu qu, v cui cng c chnh thc bi b. Khi hot ng ngn hng tr nn thng mi ha hn, th cc ngn hng bt u tp trung nhiu vo p ng nhu cu th trng hn l cung cp tn dng ch nh. iu ny to nn s cnh tranh gay gt gia cc ngn hng v nhng kh khn trong vic tm kim cc d n c ngn hng h tr, kt qu l to p lc lm gim li sut huy ng v cho vay. Thng 8/2000 mt c ch li sut mi c p dng: li sut cho vay bng ni t c iu chnh da vo li sut c bn do NHNN cng b. Quy nh ny hu nh khng c tc dng v s cnh tranh gay gt gia cc ngn hng v bin li sut tng i ln. Trn li sut vn vay ngoi t c hy b thng 11/2001, v nhng hn mc li sut cui cng cng c bi b v thng 06/2002. K t , t nht l theo lut ngn hng v nhng qui nh trin khai i km, cc ngn hng hon ton t do n nh li sut huy ng v cho vay ca mnh. Tuy nhin, theo lut dn s th iu ny khng ng v trn li sut thc cht vn cn tc dng67. Tnh hnh cng tr nn m h hn v s khc bit gia li sut c bn theo nh nh ngha ca lut ngn hng Vit Nam v cch din dch thng thng v li sut c bn. Tm li, bt k nhng ci thin quan trng trong vic qun l chnh sch li sut trong hn hai thp nin qua, s thc thi cc quyt nh t do ha li sut thng khng t c nhng mc tiu ra trong cc t ci cch chnh sch ny v s nhm ln xoay quanh vn li sut v t do ha li sut Vit Nam. NHNN gim tc dng ca chnh sch t do ha li sut ca mnh thng qua s kt hp gia vic ph bin li sut c bn, vic p dng cc iu khon trong lut dn s nh nu, v vic tha thun li sut vi Hip hi ngn hng Vit Nam, mt lin minh trong ngnh m cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc vn ng vai tr then cht. iu ny c bit hin r trong ln sng lm pht trong nhng nm gn y.

66 67

S HTX tn dng tng t 1 n v nm 1983 ln 7.180 vo cui thp nin 1980 (Thnh, op.cit., tr. 3). Trc iu khon 473 ca b lut dn s 1995 qui nh rng li sut cho vay s do bn i vay v bn cho vay m phn tha thun, nhng khng c cao hn 50% li sut c bn ca NHNN.

21

Bc tip theo trong qu trnh t do ha li sut Vit Nam l tng bc nng li sut c bn ca NHNN ln t nht bng vi t l lm pht cc ngn hng c th cho mi li sut thc dng vi ngi gi tin, v qua to ng c mnh m a vn tr vo khu vc ti chnh chnh thc; v sau khi nng lc gim st ngn hng c ci thin ngn chn s cnh tranh khng lnh mnh trong vic huy ng vn, iu chnh lut dn s b mc trn li sut c bn 150%. IV.1.1.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc, li sut tng bc c t do ha trong thi gian 12 nm, nhng ging nh Vit Nam tin trnh ny vn cha hon tt. Li sut trc tin c t do ha trn th trng tin t v th trng tri phiu, theo sau l li sut cho vay, v cui cng l li sut tin gi. Tuy nhin, gi tr thc ca li sut huy ng vn m v chnh lch li sut cho vay cng qu nh trang tri chi ph giao dch ca hot ng ti chnh vi m bn vng v mt thng mi. PBOC ln k hoc xa trn li sut i vi tin gi bng ng NDT v trong tng lai s t do ha li sut i vi cc khon tin gi nh, c k hn mt nm. Lc ny PBOC cng a ra cc cng c chnh sch tin t da vo th trng68. IV.1.2. Hn mc tn dng v tn dng ch nh IV.1.2.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam, hn mc tn dng c s dng rng ri qun l chnh sch tin t bt u nm 1994, nhng trn l thuyt chnh ph bi b cch lm ny nm 1998. Tuy nhin, NHNN vn tip tc n nh mc tiu tc tng trng tn dng cho h thng ngn hng, trong ngn hng thng mi nh nc chim t trng a s. Thc t, tn dng ch nh v tn dng dnh cho doanh nghip nh nc gim ng k, t 90%69 tng tn dng u thp nin 1990 xung cn 31,4% vo thng 03/200770. iu ny cho thy p lc i vi cc ngn hng thng mi k c ngn hng thng mi nh nc trong vic cp tn dng cho khu vc cng ang gim i. Tuy nhin, cu chuyn s hon ton khc i nu tnh lun c cn i vn vay ca cc ngn hng chnh sch, c bit l ca VDB, cc qu u t a phng v vn vay ca VBARD cho nng dn71. Vic cch ly tn dng ch nh khi cc ngn hng chnh thng s gip ci thin nh hng th trng v kt qu hot ng thng mi ca khu vc ngn hng Vit Nam , t lm gim kh nng thit hi trc ri ro tn dng h thng, nhng cng t ra nhiu c hi cho vic phn b vn sai lch v tham nhng v mt t chc. y l nhng c ch ngoi ngn sch nhm chuyn ngun lc cho cc DNNN, m khng yu cu phi cng b thng tin ti thiu v s minh bch; thc cht y l nhng t chc mang tnh chnh tr vi hnh thc bn ngoi l ngn hng, nm ngoi s kim sot ca NHNN.

68

Garca-Herrero and Santabrbara, op.cit., tr. 318; Christian Roland, Ci cch khu vc ngn hng n v Trung Quc Quan im so snh, 2006, tr. 14, 69 Jens Kousted v cc tc gi khc Ci cch khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam mt s vn kh khn chn lc, bo co CIEM/NIAS, NIASPess, 2003, tr. 19. 70 IMF. Vit Nam: Ph lc thng k, 2007, tr. 23, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/cr06423.pdf. 71 Thnh, op.cit., tr. 142.

22

IV.1.2.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc c nhiu quyn t tr v trch nhim gii trnh hn trong cc quyt nh cho vay k t u thp nin 1990. Hn ngch tn dng cng khng cn v s can thip ca nh nc trong phn b tn dng cng b nghim cm, t ra l chnh thc72. Tuy nhin thc t l phn ln cn i vn vay ca cc ngn hng c bit l ngn hng thng mi nh nc u nm trn bng cn i ti sn ca doanh nghip nh nc, cho thy tn dng ch nh dng nh vn ph bin cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc Trung Quc d mun hay khng, ngoi cc t chc ti chnh c mc tiu c bit thc hin cho vay ch nh theo lut73. y vn cn l vn ln trong ci cch h thng ngn hng, c bit l cc ngn h ng thng mi nh nc Trung Quc, v ch c th gii quyt hon ton khi bn thn doanh nghip nh nc c thng mi ha, c phn ha, hay thanh l. Dng nh tn dng ch nh v tn dng dnh cho doanh nghip nh nc Trung Quc vn ph bin hn Vit Nam. IV.1.3. D tr bt buc Vi Vit Nam, d tr bt buc74 cha bao gi l ngun thu ngn sch, v mc d t l d tr bt buc c th cao n 35%75, thc t n vn cha bao gi vt qu 15%, thay vo , d tr bt buc c s dng nh cng c thc thi chnh sch tin t. NHNN tn dng t l d tr bt buc bng -la theo cch tng t. Trung Quc cng i x vi d tr bt buc nh Vit Nam, h xem y nh l cng c thc thi chnh sch tin t hn l cch ti tr thm ht ngn sch. IV.1.4. Chnh sch ngoi hi v qun l t gi hi oi IV.1.4.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam, c ngoi hi v t gi hi oi u c kim sot cht ch, mc d c ch t gi hi oi c nh c thay bng c ch t gi th ni c kim sot 76. Theo lut hin hnh, t gi hi oi ng tin Vit Nam l do cung v cu ngoi hi trn th trng quyt nh vi s iu tit ca nh nc.77 Thc t, NHNN cng b t gi lin ngn hng gia VND v -la M hng ngy. Theo , cc ngn hng s quyt nh t l giao dch trong bin c th xoay quanh t gi c cng b78. i vi ngoi t khc, cc ngn hng hon ton t do quyt nh t gi. Nu cn thit, chnh ph c th p dng cc qui nh v ngha v bn ngoi t i vi cc t chc thng tr cng nh cc bin php hnh chnh khc79. Hin ti, IMF xem nh Vit Nam p dng iu 8 trong cc qui nh ca IMF v cc bin php kim sot ti khon vn v t gi hi oi 80.

72 73

Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, op.cit., tr. 327. Cui 1999, d n vn vay i vi khu vc t nhn ch c 7 t -la, chim khong 0,62% tng d n ngn hng v cha ti 0,5% d n ca cc NHTMNN (Huang, op.cit., tr. 117). 74 T l d tr bt buc l phn trm s tin gi ca khch hng m ngn hng phi dnh ring d tr. 75 Xem Quyt nh s 108/Q-NH ngy 09/06/1992 ca NHNN. 76 Nguyn Vn Tin, Nn Ti chnh Hin i Quc t: nh gi chnh sch t gi hi oi ca Vit Nam sau 20 nm i mi, NXB Thng K, 2005, tr. 795; v Ph ng Minh, Hin trng v iu kin t do ha ti khon vn Vit Nam, NHNN, 2007, tr. 23 77 Php lnh v ngoi hi 2005, iu 1, khon 30. 78 Quyt nh 2554/2006/Q-NHNN ngy 31/12/2006, khon 1. 79 Php lnh v ngoi hi 2005, khon 41. 80 Xem: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2006/pr0602.htm, 31/12/2006.

23

Trong qu trnh ci cch c nhiu loi t gi xut hin: t gi chnh thc do NHNN cng b, t gi giao dch ca cc ngn hng thng mi (danh ngha v hiu dng), v t gi trn th trng t do (ch en). Trong nhng nm u ci cch, t gi chnh thc v th trng t do chnh lch rt ln, nhng c thu hp ng k n cui 2006 (xem bng 3). Tuy nhin, chnh lch ny bt u ln hn trong giai on khng hong ti chnh hin nay, nh trng hp khc bit gia t gi danh ngha v hiu dng ca cc ngn hng thng mi khi bin giao dch chnh thc ca NHNN khng phn nh ng gi th trng. Bng 3: Chnh lch t gi gia th trng chnh thc v th trng t do
Nm Chnh thc T do TDo/CThc '85 15 115 7.67 '86 80 425 5.31 '87 368 1.270 3,45 '88 3.000 5.000 1,67 '89 3.900 4.750 1,22 '90 5.133 5.610 1,09 '91 9.274 9.546 1,03 '06 16.091 16.120 1,002 '07 16.114 16.150 1,002 08 03/20 06/19 15.861 15.355 0,968 16.619 19.500 1,222

Source: NHNN; Tin, v cc ngun khc.

IV.1.4.2. Trung Quc ng Nhn dn t c ban hnh ngay trc khi ch Quc dn ng sp 1949 trong iu kin kinh t v m suy sp cng vi s chuyn giao chnh tr m mu. Do , mt trong nhng thch thc cp bch nht ca chnh quyn ng Cng sn l khc phc siu lm pht. Ba thp nin tip theo, trong k nguyn nn kinh t ch huy ca Trung Quc, ng NDT c n nh t gi mc cao khng thc t so vi ngoi t, do nhng qui nh v chuyn i tin t ngt ngho c ban hnh nhm thc thi chnh sch ng vi ng NDT c nh gi qu cao. Khi Trung Quc bt u chuyn i vo nm 1978 sang nn kinh t nh hng th trng hn, h a ra h thng tin t kp theo ch c ng NDT c s dng trong nc v ngi nc ngoi phi s dng chng ch ngoi hi. H thng ny vn tip tc cht t gi NDT mc rt cao, to iu kin chn mi cho th trng giao dch tin t ch en pht trin mnh. T cui thp nin 80 n gia thp nin 90, Trung Quc lm cho NDT d chuyn i hn, xa b h thng tin t kp v a NDT xung gn hn vi gi tr th trng thng qua s dng cc trung tm hon i. Thng qua mt s t ph gi c qun l, t gi hi oi NDT vi USD dn gim t 3,7 cn 8,6 trong giai on 5 nm, sau gn nh c nh mc 8,27 NDT/USD cho n thng 07/200581. NDT hin ang trong giai on tng gi c kim sot; n tng 6% so vi -la tnh n cui 2006, xu hng ny tip tc qua na u nm 2008, tng ln 6,9 NDT/USD. IV.1.5. Chnh sch qun l dng vn v ti khon vn M ca ti khon vn l bc cui cng trong t do ha ti chnh, c bit sau giai on khng hong ti chnh ng 97-98, lm nghim trng hn vn t nht l Thi Lan do nc ny m ca ti khon vn qu nhanh. Vi Vit Nam v Trung Quc th y l bc i chm nht
81

Min Zhao, T do ha bn ngoi v s tin ha ca h thng t gi Trung Quc: Hng tip cn thc tin, Ti liu nghin cu ca World Bank s 4 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2005), tr. 12, 15, 16 v Ph lc 2, tr. 31,
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCHIINDGLOECO/Resources/external_liberalization_and_exchange_control.pdf.

24

trong ci cch khu vc ti chnh. Nhng vi ri ro t do ha ti khon vn khng c kim sot tt, th y cng khng hn l iu xu. IV.2. Ni lng qui nh khu vc ti chnh IV.2.1. Cc ro cn gia nhp, m rng v a dng ha IV.2.1.1. Vit Nam Khng lu sau khi h thng ngn hng bt u hot ng chnh thc nh mt h thng hai cp nm 1990. Chnh ph bt u tng bc gim i cc ro cn hnh chnh v php l i vi vic gia nhp, m rng v a dng ha h thng ngn hng c cu trc mi ca mnh. Th trng dn c m ra cho ngn hng thng mi c phn v ngn hng nc ngoi cng c php m chi nhnh hay lp lin doanh vi cc ngn hng trong nc. Vic m ca h thng ngn hng Vit Nam l mt hn hp thnh cng. S cnh tranh tng mnh khi s lng NHTMCP tng t 4 nm 1991 ln 51 nm 199782. Tuy nhin, s tng trng nhanh ny cng to ra mt th trng mt cn i trong phn ln ti sn tp trung vo cc NHTMNN v phn cn li trn th trng li rt phn tn v mang c trng cnh tranh trit tiu gia cc NHTMCP. iu ny dn n s cng c th trng thng qua cc v sp nhp v ti c cu ngn hng, c bit trong giai on 1999-2001, n nm 2006 s NHTMCP gim cn 37. Tuy nhin, NHNN gn y cho php thnh lp cc ngn hng mi. S m rng h thng ngn hng Vit Nam gn y cn c mt vn khc l vic cp giy php ngn hng cho cc tp on kinh t nh nc, cng nh vic DNNN mua li cc NHTMCP. iu ny t ra nhng ri ro h thng tng t nh nhng g i km vi hot ng cho vay Nht, Hn Quc, v Indonesia trc khi cc cuc khng hong ngn hng lin quan xy ra cc nc ny. Ri ro ny cng cao hn khi DNNN v cc NHTMNN s hu cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng nh cng ty ti chnh v cng ty cho thu ti chnh. y c coi l hnh thc c ng s hu gia cc t chc mt cch dn tri v khng minh bch ca cc DNNN, NHTMNN v cc t chc ti chnh trc thuc. Ri ro t vic doanh nghip nh nc a dng ha sang ngnh ti chnh cn c b sung vi vic nhiu ngn hng cng mun a dng ha hot ng tr thnh cc ngn hng tng hp. Th cho nn Vit Nam hin nay va c trang b tt ln khng tt bng h thng ngn hng. Xt v s lng v mng li phn phi bn l, th s tng trng l ng khch l: hin c 80 ngn hng v 924 HTX tn dng Vit Nam, v ch ring cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc c hn 3000 vn phng giao dch trn khp c nc. Nhng xt theo c cu th trng, cc s liu cho thy vn cn nhng yu km c cu quan trng trong v th cnh tranh ca cc ngn hng thng mi c phn so vi ngn hng thng mi nh nc: nm 2006, th phn ca NHTMNN chim gn 70% lng tin gi v 65% d n tn dng, trong khi tt c 15 ngn hng ng u Vit Nam c 92,4% th phn v ti sn, khng tnh cc chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi83. Hn na, a s doanh nghip v h gia nh Vit Nam vn cha tip cn c nhng

82

Vu Viet Ngoan, Ci cch ti chnh Vit Nam: Hng n hi nhp quc t, Phin hp ln th 20 ca ABA v cc cuc hi tho thng nin, 2003. 83 Thanh v Quang, op. cit., tr. 7-8.

25

dch v ti chnh chnh thc, v a s ngn hng Vit Nam u nhm n cng mt b phn nh cc doanh nghip chnh thc v ngi tiu dng thnh th c thu nhp tng i cao. IV.2.1.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc cu chuyn b ro cn gia nhp, m rng v a dng ha cng ging nh Vit Nam, nhng bt u sm hn mt thp nin. Trong hu ht thp nin 80, pht trin quan trng nht ca h thng ti chnh Trung Quc l s tng trng ca cc trung gian ti chnh ngoi NHTMNN: cc ngn hng vng do chnh quyn a phng s hu mt phn c thnh lp trong cc c khu kinh t (SEZ) vng duyn hi; cc HTXTDNT c thnh lp nng thn v HTXTDTT thnh th; cng xut hin mt s t chc phi ngn hng khc nh Cng ty u t v tn thc; ngn hng nc ngoi thnh lp vn phng chi nhnh cc c khu kinh t cho hot ng giao dch ngoi hi84. Tt c nhng trung gian ti chnh ny u bt u nhn tin gi v cho vay, hot ng lnh mnh nng cao tnh cnh tranh th trng v rt thnh cng trong vic huy ng tin tit kim. Tuy nhin, iu ny cng gp phn gy lm pht cao hn, v a s tn dng c ch nh cho doanh nghip nh nc hay TVE vay, cch ny n thun l thay th vic ti tr thng qua phn b ngn sch bng ti tr vn thng qua h thng ngn hng85. C ch ti tr ngoi ngn sch ny d hp dn v mc chnh tr, nhng khng ch lm gim i s vng chc ca cc trung gian ti chnh Trung Quc, m cn mang tnh o tng. Khi phn ln nhng khon vay ny khng c hon tr v ch n mt kh nng chi tr, th gnh nng s chuyn ngc v cho ngn sch di hnh thc phn b ti cp vn cho nhng trung gian ti chnh ny. Nhng p lc lm pht to ra t s m rng nhanh chng trn lm cho tc ci cch ti chnh chm i t 1988 n 1991, trong thi gian chnh ph cng sp nhp nhiu t chc mi, nhng s ni lng qui nh vi khu vc ti chnh c tip tc tr li bng mt t bng n kinh t khc nm 1992. Kt qu cng tng t nh Vit Nam vi kh nhiu t chc ti chnh, mt s c mng li phn phi bn l rng khp. Nhng h thng ngn hng vn do cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc chim u th v ch yu cho doanh nghip nh nc vay vn. IV.2.2. T nhn ha/c phn ha IV.2.2.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam va mi bt u chng trnh c phn ha ngn hng thng mi nh nc: t IPO u tin cho VCB c thc hin thng 12/2007 sau nhiu ln tr hon. t th hai c thc hin mt nm sau (cho ICB). Mc d cn ba NHTMNN khc (BIDV, VBARD, v MHB) vn ln k hoch ra cng chng, cc t IPO ca h sm nht cng tr hon n ht 2009. Hn na, t IPO ca VCB cng kh tht vng v trc IPO khng tm c nh u t chin lc; nim tin ca cng chng gim mnh k t t IPO, th hin qua s gim st gn 70% gi c phiu ca VCB mt nm sau, khi gi IPO ca ngn hng ICB cha bng 1/5 gi IPO ca VCB.

84 85

Allen, Qian, v Qian, op. cit., tr. 7. V d, Knh u t chnh i vi cc doanh nghip (t chnh ph cho n doanh nghip nh nc) chuyn t phn b ngn sch (70% 1978) sang vn vay t cc ngn hng s hu nh nc (80% 1982). (Alle n, Qian, v Qian, p.7.)

26

IV.2.2.2. Trung Quc Kt qu ca cc t IPO nm 2005 v 2006 Trung Quc l ba trong s bn NHTMNN ln nht c nim yt trn th trng chng khon Hng Kng v Thng Hi (gm BOC, CCB, v ICBC), v t IPO khc c d nh cho ABC (Ngn hng Nng nghip Trung Quc) sau khi ngn hng ny c ti cp vn 100 t -la t tin nh nc. S khc bit chnh gia ba t IPO ca Trung Quc v v IPO VCB ca Vit Nam l cho n nay, Trung Quc vn bm st khi nim c phn ha 2 giai on nh nu r trong bng 4. Cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc Trung Quc khng ch huy ng khi lng vn ln t cc nh u t chin lc ca mnh, m nhng nh u t ny cng tham gia vo hot ng qun tr v iu h nh NHTMNN, v cung cp nhiu hnh thc h tr k thut86. IV.2.3. S tham gia ca cc t chc ti chnh nc ngoi IV.2.3.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam v ang tng bc m ca khu vc ti chnh cho cc t chc nc ngoi theo nh hip nh BTA k kt vi Hoa K nm 2000 (hiu lc 2001), v theo cc iu khon gia nhp WTO 2007, xem tm tt trong hnh 5. p li vic m ca khu vc ti chnh ca Vit Nam, dng vn u t nc ngoi chy vo cc ngn hng thng mi c phn trong nc. Trong s ny c nhng giao dch ln nh ANZ mua 10% Sacombank, Standard Chartered mua 8,6% ACB cc nh u t ny khng ch u t vo c phiu blue-chip (c gi tr cao), m h cn mua phn vn ca hai trong s cc ngn hng thng mi c phn ln nht v c li nhun nht ca Vit Nam (xem bng 5). Gn y xut hin s tranh lun kh nng v kh nng tng trn s hu nc ngoi trong ngn hng ni a ln 49%, vn ny vn cha ng ng. Vi qui m tng i nh ca cc ngn hng Vit Nam v nn kinh t Vit Nam so vi Trung Quc, ngi ta e ngi nhiu v tc ng ca s hu nc ngoi ln ch quyn ca Vit Nam hn l Trung Quc.

86

Chin lc c phn ha ca Trung Quc c PBOC m t chi tit trn trang web: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english//detail.asp?col=6400&ID=966

27

Bng 4: Cc nh u t nc ngoi ba ngn hng ln nht Trung Quc

Qui m giao dch (t US$) Tng ti sn (t US$) iu khon quan trng C mt gh trong HQT Hp tc rng ri v qun tr doanh nghip, hot ng ngn kh, qun l ri ro, qun l ti sn, v o to nhn lc, etc. Hp tc nhiu mt v th tn dng, doanh nghip kinh doanh, bo him c nhn C mt gh trong HQT Cam kt nm gi ti thiu 500 triu -la gi tr c phiu trong t IPO C mt gh trong HQT Hp tc v qun tr doanh nghip, qun l ri ro, cng ngh thng tin, qun l ti chnh C gh trong HQT Khong 50 nhn vin ca BOA s sang CCB cung cp dch v t vn Quyn mua thm c phiu trong tng lai tng s hu ln 19,9% Cam kt nm gi ti thiu 1 t -la tr gi c phiu trong t IPO H tr ti c cu CCB C mt gh trong HQT % c phiu 10 10 5 9,1 5,1 Nh u t chin lc Ngn hng Ngy hon tt 01/06 08/05 08/05 06/05 07/05 Gi tr th trng/ti sn (%) 5,6% Thng tin ni bt Ngn hng thng mi ln nht Trung Quc vi tng ti sn 5,59 ngn t NDT, cui nm 2004 Ngn hng thng mi ln th hai Trung Quc vi tng ti sn 4,27 ngn t NDT, cui 2004 Ngn hng thng mi ln th ba Trung Quc vi tng ti sn 3,91 ngn t NDT, cui 2004

Ngn hng Cng Thng Trung Quc

675,94

Goldman Sachs, Allianz v America Express

3.800

Bank of China

516,32

5,9%

Royal Bank of Scotland v cc nh u t khc Temasek

3.048

1.524

Ngn hng Xy dng Trung Quc

72,79

6,1%

Bank of America

2.500

Temasek

1.466

Ngun: Hope and Hu, v cc ngun khc.

28

Bng 5: Nh u t nc ngoi trong Ngn hng Thng mi c phn Vit Nam

Ngn hng Tng ti sn (t US$) Nh u t chin lc Ngy hon tt Quy m giao dch (triu US$) 45 27 17 Na Na Na Na Na % c phiu

ACB Sacombank Techcombank VB Bank Ngn hng Phng ng Ngn hng Phng Nam Habubank Eximbank
Ngun: Tc gi thu thp t cc ngun

1,5 1,5 1,1 0,6 0,4 0,6 0,7 1,5

Standard Chartered ANZ HSBC OCBC BNP Paribas UOB Deutsche Bank SMBC

06/05 03/06 12/05 03/06 11/06 06/07 02/07 03/07

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Hnh 5: Cc cam kt WTO ca Vit Nam trong khu vc ti chnh

1. Cc t chc tn dng nc ngoi ch c php thit lp s hin din thng mi Vit Nam theo cc hnh thc sau: a. Vi cc ngn hng thng mi nc ngoi: vn phng i din, chi nhnh ngn hng thng mi nc ngoi, ngn hng thng mi lin doanh trong vn gp nc ngoi khng vt qu 50% vn iu l, cng ty cho thu ti chnh lin doanh, cng ty cho thu ti chnh 100% vn nc ngoi, cng ty ti chnh lin doanh v cng ty ti chnh 100% vn nc ngoi, v bt u t 01/04/2007, cho php m ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi . b. Vi cc cng ty ti chnh nc ngoi: vn phng i din, cng ty ti chnh lin doanh, cng ty ti chnh 100% vn nc ngoi, cng ty cho thu ti chnh lin doanh, cng ty cho thu ti chnh 100% vn nc ngoi. Trong 5 nm k t ngy gia nhp, Vit Nam c th hn ch quyn nhn tin gi bng VND t ngi Vit Nam ca cc chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi m vi s tin gi ny ngn hng khng thit lp quan h tn dng tnh theo h s vn gp ca chi nhnh, theo lch trnh nh sau: 01/01/2007: 650% vn php nh gp; 01/01/2008: 800% vn php nh gp; 01/01/2009: 900% vn php nh gp; 01/01/2010: 1.000% vn php nh gp; 01/01/2011: i x quc gia y .

2.

3. Tham gia vn ch s hu: Vit Nam c th hn ch s tham gia vn ch s hu ca cc t chc tn dng nc ngoi trong cc ngn hng nh nc c c phn ha ngang bng vi mc tham gia vn ch s hu ca cc ngn hng Vit Nam. i vi vic gp vn di hnh thc mua c phiu, tng vn ch s hu do cc t chc v c nhn nc ngoi nm gi trong mi ngn hng thng mi c phn Vit Nam khng c vt qu 30% vn iu l ca ngn hng, tr khi lut Vit Nam qui nh khc i hoc c mt c quan c thm quyn ca Vit Nam cho php. Ngun: WTO, T cng tc v s gia nhp ca Vit Nam

29

IV.2.3.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc, ct mc quan trng trong t do ha khu vc ti chnh l vic gia nhp WTO vo cui 2001. Theo cam kt vi WTO, Trung Quc c l trnh 5 nm tng t nh Vit Nam. Trung Quc lin tc phn u t c mc tiu ny, mc d tin vn cn chm do s phc tp v nhy cm ca vic c nc ngoi tham gia vo th trng ngn hng ni a Trung Quc. n hn hai nm trc th tin c gia tng v tht s khi ng. S chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi tng t 175 nm 2001 (gia nhp WTO) ln 192 nm 2004. a s tr s ca cc ngn hng ny u n t cc nn kinh t chu (i Loan, Hng Kng, v Hn Quc)87. S vn phng i din cng gia tng t 184 ln 223. Mc d khng phi l mt phn trong cam kt WTO, Trung Quc vn gia tng mc trn s hu ca mt nh u t nc ngoi trong ngn hng ni a t 15 ln 20%, v mc trn tng s hu nc ngoi ln 25%. iu ny nht qun vi nhn nh chung cho rng h thng ngn hng Trung Quc ang tht s cn vn, cng nh chuyn mn v qun tr v iu hnh ngn hng. n thng 10/2005, c 17 ngn hng nc ngoi mua c phiu trong cc ngn hng ni a vi tng tr gi l 20,88 t -la.88. IV.3. n nh khu vc ti chnh IV.3.1. Ti c cu IV.3.1.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam trng tm ca a s n lc ti c cu ngn hng u dn vo cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc chun b pht hnh ra cng chng ln u (IPO). Trc mc hiu qu v li nhun tng i thp ca NHTMNN, chnh ph tp trung n lc vo vic ci thin h thng qun l v iu hnh, c cu vn v cht lng ti sn, cng vic ng dng hiu qu cng ngh ngn hng. c nhiu tin b t c trong vic gim hn mc tn dng u i chnh thc v tn dng ch nh chnh thc trong qu trnh t do ha khu vc ti chnh, nhng chnh ph vn cn can thip ng k vo hot ng ca NHTMNN. i vi NHTMCP Vit Nam cng c nhng ci cch quan trng, chng hn nh cng c t chc v nng cao nng lc ti chnh trong giai on cui thp nin 199089. Mt trong nhng kt qu r rt ca nhng n lc ny l hai ngn hng thng mi c phn Sacombank v ACB hai NHTMNN l VCB v Vietinbank chnh thc nim yt trn th trng chng khon, v tr thnh hai n v c mc vn ha cao nht trong tt c doanh nghip nin yt. Tin trnh ny vn cn di, bng chng l nhng kh khn bt n trong khu vc ti chnh ang gia tng. IV.3.1.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc cng dn s tp trung vo vic ti c cu cc NHTMNN chun b IPO. H cng thc hin nhng ci cch quan trng khc gii quyt nhng yu km c cu trong khu vc ti chnh, c bit l h thng HTX tn dng. Cc hp tc x tn dng no
87 88

Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, op.cit., tr. 319-320 Thomas Achhorner, Johnson Chang, Holger Michaelis, v Tjun Tang, Hot ng ngn hng Trung Quc: Chin lc thnh cng i vi t chc nc ngoi mi vo. The Boston Consulting Group, 2006, ptr. 11-12, at http://www.bcg.com/publications/files/Banking_on_China_Successful_Strategies_May06.pdf. 89 Xem: http://www.sbv.gov.vn/home/hethongTCTD.asp, 30/12/2006.

30

p ng c nhng iu kin do chnh ph n nh s c quyn nhn thm vn hoc c u i thu t PBOC hay chnh quyn a phng. Hn na cc hp tc x tn dng lm n thua l s phi ng ca. Mc tiu l gim s lng 36.000 nm 2004 xung cn 10.000 hp tc x tn dng vo nm 2007, ch yu l thng qua hp nht cp huyn. n nay, chnh ph bm 20 t -la h tr n lc sp nhp v ti c cu hp tc x tn dng, cng vi vic ci thin s hu v thc tin qun tr. Khuyt im quan trng ca nhng ci cch ny l thiu tp trung vo pha vn hnh ca ca cc hp tc x tn dng, c bit l dch v tn dng. IV.3.2. Gii quyt n xu IV.3.2.1. Vit Nam Khc vi Trung Quc, Vit Nam, bn NHTMNN thit lp cc AMC ni b vo nm 2000 theo k hoch ti c cu ngn hng thng mi c nc. Vn iu l ca mi AMC l 30 t ng, tng cng l 120 t ng tng ng 0,5% tng s n xu ca cc ngn hng thng mi vo cui 2000. Do s gn kt v mt t chc ca cc AMC vi NHTMNN lin quan, cng nh s vn iu l t i ca cc cng ty ny, c th ni vai tr ca AMC n nay vn khng ng k, v cc cng ty ny ch yu hot ng nh nhng phng ban x l n ca cc NHTMNN. Tuy nhin khng c s liu chnh thc no ng h cho nhn nh ny. V n nay vn cha c trng hp chuyn n xu t ngn hng sang AMC. T cch ni b ca AMC Vit Nam cng c h ly ng k v mt k ton. Trung Quc mc d cc AMC c lin quan mt thit vi ngn hng, nhng vn c thnh lp mt cc c lp, do cc khon n m ngn hng xa s s c chuyn sang AMC. Cn Vit Nam, n xu chuyn cho AMC vn xut hin trn bo co k ton hp nht ca ngn hng, do nh hng tiu cc n nhiu ch bo hot ng kinh doanh quan trng v kh nng thanh ton v li nhun ca ngn hng. 90 V iu ny dn n ng c bo co thp n xu, s dng nhng k thut nh: o hn n kh i bng vic vn ha li sut cha thanh ton (evergreening); ti c cu n kh thanh ton bng li sut thp hn v k hn thanh ton di hn (reshceduling); v nng khng cc khon gii ngn n vn d cha bao gi ri khi ngn hng nhng li c chuyn vo ti khon vng lai ca bn vay, hoc nhanh chng chuyn ngc tr v ngn hng sau khi kt thc giai on bo co (window dressing). Ngoi bn cng ty AMC ca NHTMNN, Vit Nam cng thit lp mt DATC nm 2003 vi 2 ngn t ng vn iu l. DATC l mt cng ty thng mi c nhim v di hn l to li nhun t vic mua v bn cc ti sn xu ca doanh nghip nh nc, khc vi mt AMC truyn thng. IV.3.2.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc, cc ngn hng v AMC u tham gia x l n xu, thng qua thanh l ti sn th chp, chuyn n thnh vn ch s hu, v bn n cho cc nh u t, k c nc ngoi. Cc AMC nhn tng cng 323 t -la n xu ca NHTMNN. n cui thng 3/2006, AMC x l c 111 t v thu hi c 23,1 t -la; t l thu hi rt nh, ch
90

VCB c k hoch gii th AMC trong chng trnh c phn ha ca mnh.

31

24,2%. Khng c s liu v vic x l s n xu 153 t -la c chuyn gn y. Cc AMC hot ng gn 10 nm, y cng chnh l vng i d kin ca cc cng ty ny, nhng kt qu hot ng li rt hn ch, v c nhiu kin chn vn v c s l lun v vai tr ca cc AMC Trung Quc91. Hnh 6: N xu ca cc NHTMNN Trung Quc
1600 1400 30%

25%

800 600 400 200 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

15%

10% 5%

0%

D D n n

N xu xu N

N N xu/d xu/D n n

N xu/GDP xu/GDP N

Ngun: CBRC, Garca-Herrero and Santabrbara, op.cit., v tnh ton ca tc gi.

Ngoi s n xu chuyn giao cho AMC, cc NHTMNN vn cn s n xu rt ln phi t gii quyt. Tng s n xu ca b t NHTMNN ln nht gim t 232 t -la 2003 xung cn 140 t nm 2006, v bn thn cc NHTMNN cng x l 157 t vo cui 200592. Khng c s liu chi tit nhng c kh nng n xu c x l bng cch chuyn i v xa chng khi bng cn i ti sn ca NHTMNN, iu ny li to thm cc vn khc cho ngn hng.93 Xu hng n xu ca cc ngn hng thng mi nh

91

Cc s liu c tnh ton da trn nhng ti liu nghin cu ca PriceWaterHouseCooper, Kho st nh u t NPL Trung Quc 2006, http://www.pwchk.com/webmedia/doc/633009151052592032_cn_npl_survey2006.pdf ; v Ernst &Young, "Bo co NPL ton cu 2006" http://www.chinalawblog.com/china/files/ey_rehc_nonperformingloans_may20061.pdf. v Guifen Pei v Sayuri Shirai (2004): Nhng vn chnh ca ngnh ti chnh v cc cng ty qun l ti sn ca Trung Quc http://coe21-policy.sfc.keio.ac.jp/ja/event/file/s1-7.pdf 92 Xem: http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/english/info/statistics/index.jsp v http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/english/home/jsp/docView.jsp?docID=20070212B7F451E045DD251AFFB4C251 2EB89E00 . 93 Xem Khng nn eo gng cho mnh http://www.saigontimes.com.vn/tbktsg/detail.asp?muc=205&Sobao=846&SoTT=27&sotrang=1 .

32

Phn trm

T -la

T USD

Phn trm

1200 1000 20%

nc Trung Quc c th hin trong hnh 6, tuy nhin cn nh nhn nh ph bin cho rng n xu Trung Quc c bo co thp hn thc t.94 n cui thng 8/2004, cc ngn hng v cng ty AMC ca Trung Quc bn n theo mnh gi khong 6 t -la cho cc nh u t nc ngoi, trong Citigroup mua t l ln nht vi gi gn 2,2 t -la.95 Con s ny l mt phn nh trong tng n xu ca ngn hng ni a Trung Quc, nhng li kh ln i vi mt ngn hng nc ngoi, c l mt phn do chin lc gia tng th phn ca h Trung Quc. IV.3.3. Ti cp vn IV.3.3.1. Vit Nam Vit Nam, NHTMNN hu nh khng nhn vn chnh thc t chnh ph trong thp nin 1990. Hot ng chnh ca NHTMNN thuc chnh ph trong thi k ny l ti c cu hot ng ngn hng v tch tn dng ch nh khi hot ng thng mi thng qua thit lp NHCSXH v VDB. T 2001 n 2005, chnh ph cp gn 15 ngn t ng vn iu l cho cc NHTMNN cng c c cu ti chnh.96 Phn ln s vn iu l b sung ny c cp di hnh thc tri phiu khng chuyn nhng ca chnh ph vi mc li sut hng nm l 3%. Nu tnh c vic x l n xu th s vn cp cho cc NHTMNN l gn 2 t -la, hay 4% GDP nm 2005, nh hn nhiu so vi Trung Quc. IV.3.3.2. Trung Quc Cn Trung Quc, ln sng ti c cu NHTMNN u tin bt u nm 1998 khi chnh ph rt 33 t -la vo bn NHTMNN di hnh thc tri phiu khng chuyn nhng bng ng NDT. Mt nm sau, 170 t -la n xu c chuyn cho bn cng ty AMC.97 Ln sng ti c cu th hai bt u nm 2003 khi c thm 45 t -la c cp cho BOC v CCB, hai NHTMNN c thnh tch x l n xu tt nht. S tin ny c cp di hnh thc chuyn giao s hu tri phiu chnh ph M t ngun d tr ngoi hi quc gia sang cho cc ngn hng ny. Cng ging nh tri phiu khng chuyn nhng cp, cc ngn hng khng c php chuyn tri phiu thnh NDT trong mt thi gian nht nh. Tuy nhin mc vn ha ngn hng gia tng, v qu d phng n xu c s dng xa s n tr gi 23,4 t -la. Vo thng 6/2004, BOC nhn c 18,1 t -la v CCB nhn 15,6 t t vic bn cho cc AMC n xu vi mnh gi cao gp i s tin thu v.98 Hn na, BOC v CCB tng vn cp 2 thng qua pht hnh n th cp tr gi ln lt l 7,8 t -la v 4,8 t -la. Bc cui cng ca ln sng th hai ny l IPO c hai

94

hiu r thm phn tho lun v tin cy (hoc thiu ht) cc s liu NPL c bo co Trung Quc, xem: Guifen Pei v Sayuri Shirai, Nhng vn chnh ca ngnh ti chnh v cc cng ty qun l ti sn ca Trung Quc, bn tho cha cng b, 02/2005. 95 PriceWaterHouseCooper, Kho st nh u t NPL Trung Quc 2004. 96 NHNN; Phung Khac Ke, Gia nhp WTO v ci cch ngn hng Vit Nam, 2006, http://www.epic.com.vn/resources/WTO_accession_banking_sector.pdf. 97 Vn ny c tho lun chi tit trong phn x l n xu trn . 98 Vic bn n s to ra mt khon chnh lch 50% gi tr khon n gia bn c v bn n trong bng cn i ti sn; phn chnh lch ny c b p bng khon vn ti tr ca nh nc v qu d phng n xu.

33

ngn hng ny, trong CCB c nim yt trn th trng chng khon Hng Kng cui 2005, v BOC thng 06/2006.99 Ln sng th ba bt u thng 04/2005, khi chnh ph cp 15 t -la cho ICBC theo hnh thc ging nh cp cho BOC v CCB trc . Qu trnh ti c cu ICBC din ra cho n thng 06/2005, khi ngn hng ny c php chuyn nhng 85,5 t -la n xu cho mt cng ty AMC, ng thi pht hnh 12,1 t -la n th cp. Thng 10/2006, ICBC thc hin IPO v t thnh cng vt bc, ging nh CCB v BOC trc . Ngn hng ln vn ang gp kh khn l ABC; chnh ph s chi 100 t cng c iu kin ti chnh ca ngn hng ny trc khi IPO nm 2008. Nh vy Trung Quc chi hn 200 t -la, bng 10% GDP 2005 trong hn 10 nm dn dp bng cn i ti sn ca cc NHTMNN. Nu tnh lun c cc khon chuyn giao cho AMC th tng chi tiu ln n 500 t, bng lng d tr ngoi hi ca Trung Quc cui 2006. IV.3.4. Gim st v iu tit IV.3.4.1. Vit Nam Mc d Vit Nam gp nhiu kh khn ban hnh v thc thi nhng qui nh theo tiu chun quc t v cn rt nhiu vic phi lm nng h thng gim st v iu tit ca t nc ln chun mc quc t, c nhng tin b ng k trong vic xy dng mt khung php l hiu qu cho hot ng ngn hng. Hin ti, mc d khung php l ny c tng cng nhng vn cn hai vn chnh: NHNN thiu nng lc k thut trong vic xc nh tnh vng mnh thc s ca cc ngn hng, xt c nhy cm v yu km ca tng ngn hng ln ri ro h thng ca cc ngn hng; v NHNN thiu s c lp can thip vo hot ng ngn hng nhm hn ch nhng thiu st c th pht hin c. gii quyt hai vn ny, Vit Nam c k hoch chuyn trch nhim gim st ngn hng t NHNN sang mt c quan gim st ngn hng ring bit, ging nh m hnh p dng Trung Quc, xem y nh bc tip theo trong vic ci thin c khun kh php l ln hot ng cho h thng ngn hng Vit Nam.100 IV.3.4.2. Trung Quc Trung Quc thc hin bc u tin ci cch c s h tng h thng ngn hng vo nm 1984, khi thit lp h thng ngn hng hai cp. n 1995, nhiu bc quan trng khc c thc hin: v th ca ngn hng trung ng c nng ln khi c trao quyn hn ln hn; cc qui nh v vn, cc h s an ton ti chnh, v c cu vn vay thanh khon c p dng cho tt c ngn hng thng mi. Hn na, nm 2002, PBOC p dng h thng phn loi vn vay 5 nhm c quc t p dng, c cc c quan lp php a vo lut nm 2003. Tuy nhin, qui nh ny khng c thc thi cht ch v PBOC khng c bin php trng pht hu hiu i vi cc n v vi phm. Nhng hot ng iu tit c nhiu ci thin t khi thnh lp CBRC nm 2003, th hin qua vic p dng mi nhng chun mc gim st v cht lng ti sn v s vn.

99

Garca-Herrero v Santabrbara, op.cit., tr. 313-14. Vo nm 2008, c quan gim st ti chnh quc gia c thnh lp nhng hot ng v vai tr ca n vn rt hn ch.
100

34

PHN V: KT LUN V KHUYN NGH V.1. Tng hp nhng im tng ng v khc bit gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc C th rt ra ba kt lun quan trng t so snh h thng ngn hng Vit Nam v Trung Quc trn. Th nht, c cu, s pht trin v tun t ci cch h thng ngn hng Vit Nam v Trung Quc v c bn tng t nhau, v c hai nc u t c nhng tin b quan trng trong chng trnh ci cch ca mnh. Th hai, tin trnh ci cch vn cn di. Th ba, nhn cn cnh tin trnh ci cch khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam v Trung Quc cho thy nhng khc bit quan trng cho n nay mi nc. C nhiu im ci cch tng ng. V t do ha khu vc ti chnh, l: t do ha li sut mt phn phn nh gi th trng st thc hn; chuyn giao khi lng ln tn dng ch nh t ngn hng thng mi sang cc ngn hng chnh sch c bit v gia tng s t ch trong hot ng cho vay ca cc NHTMNN; khng s dng d tr bt buc nh cng c ti tr ngn sch; chnh sch ngoi hi linh hot hn v chu tc ng ca th trng hn, v tng bc thn trng m ca ti khon vn. V ni lng qui nh khu vc ti chnh, l: gim ro cn gia nhp, m rng v a dng ha thc y cnh tranh; khu vc t nhn tham gia nhiu hn thng qua c phn ha cc NHTMNN v thit lp NHTMCP; cc t chc ti chnh nc ngoi tham gia nhiu hn vo hot ng ngn hng trong nc; v s pht trin ca cc t chc, sn phm, v mng li bn l khu vc ti chnh. i vi lnh vc n nh khu vc ti chnh, l: ti c cu mnh ngn hng, ch trng vo NHTMNN chun b IPO v cng c li NHTMCP sau giai on pht trin qu mc; x l n xu mc khim tn; cu trc ti chnh mnh hn thng qua ti cp vn nh k cho ngn hng; nng cao nng lc gim st v iu tit khu vc ti chnh. Cn rt nhiu vic phi lm Vit Nam v Trung Quc. i vi t do ha khu vc ti chnh, l: hon thnh t do ha li sut phn nh chnh xc gi th trng; loi b tn dng ch nh v hn mc tn dng u i; s dng d tr bt buc ch cng c s vng mnh ca cc ngn hng thay v thc hin chnh sch tin t; ban hnh chnh sch ngoi hi da vo th trng v tng bc m ca ti khon vn. i vi vic ni lng qui nh khu vc ti chnh, cn gim hn na ro cn gia nhp, m rng v a dng ha thc y cnh tranh; gia tng hn na s tham gia ca khu vc t nhn thng qua c phn ha cc NHTMNN v i x bnh ng v mt php l hn vi cc NHTMCP; gia tng hn na s tham gia ca cc t chc ti chnh nc ngoi vo hot ng ngn hng trong nc bng cch b nhng hn nh v u t nc ngoi; v pht trin hn na cc t chc, sn phm, v mng li bn l ca khu vc ti chnh, c bit i vi h gia nh c thu nhp thp v doanh nghip c th, cng nh cung cp hot ng trung gian ti chnh phi ngn hng. i vi lnh vc n nh khu vc ti chnh, l: tip tc ti c cu ngn hng ch trng vo NHTMNN trong qu trnh c phn ha su hn v tin hnh cng c ln hai cc NHTMCP; p dng cc gii php x l n xu hiu qu hn; ti cp vn b sung cc ngn hng p ng cc tiu chun Basel; v nng cao hn na nng lc gim st v iu tit khu vc ti chnh v th trng vn, c bit lin quan n s gn kt gia doanh nghip nh nc v cc t chc ti chnh ngn hng v phi ngn hng, ng thi bo v quyn ca c ng thiu s v cc nh u t qui m nh. Bt k c nhiu im tng ng, vn c nhiu khc bit quan trng trong ci cch khu vc ti chnh gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc. Vit Nam t kt qu tng i tt hn

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Trung Quc trong nhng lnh vc sau: t do ha li sut nhanh hn; t ph thuc vo vic s dng d tr bt buc thc thi chnh sch tin t; t l tn dng ch nh so vi tng tn dng ngn hng nh hn, v t l ti sn doanh nghip nh nc so vi tng ti sn ngn hng nh hn; qun l t gi hi oi linh hot hn v ti khon vn m hn; cc ngn hng nc ngoi v NHTMCP tham gia nhiu hn vo th trng; vic ti c cu NHTMNN t tn km hn. Ngc li, Trung Quc cng t kt qu tt hn Vit Nam trong nhng lnh vc sau: nng cao nng lc gim st v iu tit, bao gm ci cch ngn hng trung ng v thit lp mt c quan gim st ngn hng ring bit; c phn ha NHTMNN; pht trin v a dng ha khu vc ti chnh ni chung. Theo nhiu kha cnh th s rt ri ro khi Vit Nam chuyn dch nhanh hn sang cc chnh sch da vo th trng, trong khi khng t c tin b trong vic ci thin khung php l v nng lc thc thi gim st v iu tit khu vc ti chnh hiu qu, iu ny s to ra nhng yu im ln trong h thng ti chnh v tin t. Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch Vit Nam ch cn nh li cuc khng hong cc hp tc x tn dng vo cui thp nin 90 c th hiu r nhng ri ro khi ci cch khu vc ti chnh vi v v thiu chun b v trnh t. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam vn c th tip tc ci cch khu vc ti chnh nhanh hn vi chi ph thp hn Trung Quc nu thc hin mt cch cn trng, ch yu v qui m khu vc ti chnh ca Vit Nam ni chung v h thng ngn hng ni ring l nh hn nhiu so vi Trung Quc c v tuyt i ln tng i, xt theo qui m nn kinh t. Khi c hai nc tip tc theo ui cc chng trnh ci cch khu vc ti chnh ca mnh, c bit l thc thi cam kt WTO, th bt k tc v trnh t ci cch th no, Vit Nam v Trung Quc u phi gii quyt mt lot thch thc dai dng nh sau: s yu km vn c ca NHTMNN vi vai tr chi phi; s bt n v khng chc chn ca h thng ngn hng ni chung; v nguy c b cc t chc ti chnh nc ngoi thn tnh. V.2. Khuyn ngh chnh sch nhm ci cch hn na khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam Cn tip tc ci cch khu vc ti chnh c ba lnh vc t do ha, ni lng qui nh, v n nh. Tuy nhin, y nhanh tc ci cch trong khi gii quyt s bt cn i trong ci cch hin ti, th chnh ph nn t u tin theo hng ngc li. T do ha hn na khu vc ti chnh m khng c nng lc gim st v iu tit mt khu vc ti chnh hot ng da vo th trng cng chnh l mt yu t dn n tai ha ging nh nhng g m Thi Lan v Indonesia gp phi 10 nm trc trong cuc khng hong ti chnh ng . Sau y l nhng u tin y mnh ci cch cn c thc hin Vit Nam theo th t quan trng gim dn: 1) Thit lp mt c quan gim ngn hng vng mnh vi nhng cng c theo di hiu qu m bo s n nh v bn vng ca h thng ngn hng. iu ny i hi phi ci cch NHNN, bao gm cng c cc chi nhnh cp tnh v vng, thit lp mt c quan mi gim st ngn hng, p dng nhng qui nh ph hp vi khu vc ti chnh, v nhng cng c gim st ti ch v t bn ngoi. Chnh ph cng nn t cc ngn hng chnh sch c bit l VDB cng nh cc

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t chc ti chnh nh ngn hng khc do cc c quan b ngnh v chnh quyn a phng qun l, di s gim st v iu tit ca c quan chnh thc. 2) y mnh ti c cu ngn hng ni a, c bit l ngn hng thng mi nh nc to ra nhng ngn hng mnh v cnh tranh c th ng vai tr ca nhng trung gian ti chnh thc th. Nn tp trung vo thng mi ha v c phn ha hai bc cc NHTMNN, gim khi lng n xu to ln ang tn ng hin ang cn tr h thng ngn hng t mc cn bng mi, ti cp vn cho nhng ngn hng mt kh nng thanh ton duy tr lng tin vo h thng ngn hng, v hp nht cc NHTMCP, cc ngn hng ni a Vit Nam c qui m rt nh. 3) Pht trin cc t chc, sn phm v h thng phn phi cung cp dch v ti chnh chnh thc n cc h gia nh v doanh nghip c th trong nc. u tin hng u ca chnh ph nhm ci thin cht lng, s lng v kh nng tip cn dch v ti chnh chnh thc Vit Nam l nn thc y hot ng ti chnh vi m bn vng trn c nc. a s cc gia nh v doanh nghip vn khng th tip cn cc dch v ti chnh c bn nh tit kim, tn dng v cc phng tin thanh ton, mc d Vit Nam tng trng kinh t rt nhanh trong hai thp nin qua. S ng khng c ngn hng phc v ny cn c cung cp cc dch v ti chnh c th hin thc ha y tim nng ca mnh. a s cc n lc ti chnh vi m cho n nay ch yu vn l cc sng kin xa ngho ca chnh ph v cc nh ti tr hoc l nhng d n th im ca cc t chc NGO, vn kh c th nhn rng ra c nc. Chnh ph nn c gng p dng cc m hnh ti chnh vi m thnh cng cc nc vo Vit Nam nh ngn hng Rakyat ca Indonesia. 4) T do ha cn trng, duy tr nng lc xc nh v gim thiu ri ro ca khu vc ti chnh hot ng da vo th trng. Bc quan trng nht tip theo t do ha khu vc ti chnh Vit Nam l loi b hon ton trn li sut v tn dng ch nh, li sut tit kim v cho vay phn nh ng gi vn trn th trng, t cc t chc ti chnh chnh thc mi c th huy ng vn mt cch hiu qu t cng chng v phn b s vn ny cho nhng hot ng u t mang li sut sinh li cao nht. Tuy nhin chnh ph cn tin hnh vi vic t do ha ti khon vn mt cch cn trng, y l bc cui cng ca qu trnh t do ha ti chnh. Cc dng vn chy vo v ra t do s to ra nhng ri ro rt ln khi cc th ch th trng vn cha c thit lp hon chnh.

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