C LNG SN LNG TIM NNG CHO VIT NAM

C LNG SN LNG TIM NNG CHO VIT NAM Bo co nghin cu RS - 06 Bn quyn 2013 thuc v y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi v UNDP ti Vit Nam. Mi s sao chp v lu hnh khng c s ng ca y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi v UNDP l vi phm bn quyn.

C LNG SN LNG TIM NNG CHO VIT NAM

LI GII THIU
Vit Nam tri qua nhng giai on pht trin nhanh v n tng k t khi i mi nm 1986. Mc d sau hn 25 nm, Vit Nam gia nhp nhm nc c thu nhp trung bnh trn th gii v hon thnh cc Mc tiu Thin nin k, nhng bin ng kinh t v m trong nhng nm gn y, c bit t khi chnh thc tr thnh thnh vin ca T chc Thng mi Th gii, cng vi nhng c sc tiu cc t qu trnh hi nhp v ton cu ha, khin nn kinh t ng trc rt nhiu th thch trn con ng duy tr tng trng nhanh v bn vng. Yu cu thay i m hnh tng trng v ti c cu nn kinh t l nhng vn ang tr nn cp thit hin nay. Trong bi cnh , nghin cu v sn lng tim nng ca nn kinh t v a ra nhng bng chng thc nghim l mt trong nhng u vo hu ch cho qu trnh ny. c lng sn lng tim nng cng nh chnh lch gia sn lng tim nng v sn lng thc t cho php nh v c nn kinh t ang mc cao hn hoc thp hn mc tng trng bn vng m khng gy ra lm pht, nh gi c p lc lm pht hay gim pht ca nn kinh t v c ngha i vi hoch nh chnh sch v m. Nu sn lng thc t cao hn sn lng tim nng, p lc lm pht gia tng, cn thc thi chnh sch gim cu. Ngc li, khi sn lng thc t thp hn sn lng tim nng, lm pht c xu hng gim v c th cn n cc chnh sch v m thc y tng cu. Ngoi ra, c lng sn lng tim nng cng cho php xc nh c mc tng trng mc tiu bo m tng trng bn vng i km vi lm pht thp v n nh. Nghin cu ny ng dng nhng phng php thng k v m hnh khc nhau o lng mc sn lng tim nng ca Vit
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Nam v a ra c nhng kt qu thch hp l gii din bin tng trng ca nn kinh t cng nh nhng tho lun chnh sch c cht lng. y l nghin cu trong chui nhng nghin cu da trn bng chng thc nghim gn vi nhng vn chnh sch kinh t v m ang c trin khai trong khun kh D n H tr nng cao nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m ca y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi do Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc (UNDP) ti Vit Nam ti tr. Bo co nghin cu ny do nhm tc gi ca Trung tm Nghin cu Chnh sch v Pht trin (DEPOCEN) thc hin. Mi nhn nh, phn tch, nh gi trong bo co ny th hin quan im c lp ca nhm tc gi v khng phn nh quan im ca y ban Kinh t cng nh ca Ban Qun l D n. Xin trn trng gii thiu cng bn c. TS. Nguyn Vn Giu y vin y ban Thng v Quc hi Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi

Nghin cu c thc hin trong khun kh D n H tr nng cao nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m do y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi ch tr, vi s ti tr ca Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc (UNDP) ti Vit Nam.

Trng Ban ch o D n: Nguyn Vn Giu Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi Gim c D n: Nguyn Vn Phc Ph Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi Ph Gim c D n: Nguyn Minh Sn V trng V Kinh t, Vn phng Quc hi Qun c D n: Nguyn Tr Dng Nhm tc gi: Nguyn Ngc Anh Nguyn nh Chc Martin Gould

Cc tc gi xin by t li cm n i vi cc ng/b Nguyn Vn Giu, Nguyn Vn Phc, Nguyn Hu c, Nguyn Minh Sn, Nguyn Tr Dng, T Trung Thnh, Rodney Schmidt, Trn Th t, Mai Th Thu, Nguyn Tin Phong, Nguyn Thng, Nguyn Anh Dng v V Quc Huy v nhng kin ng gp v s ng h ca h.

MC LC

LI GII THIU 5

M u

11 16

Phng php v hng tip cn Xu hng tuyn tnh

17

Phng php s dng b lc Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Phng php tip cn theo hm sn xut S liu
24 25 25 22

18

Kt qu c lng

Phng php tuyn tnh

c lng sn lng tim nng cho chui s liu theo nm c lng sn lng tim nng s dng s liu theo qu Phng php s dng b lc Hodrick-Prescott Phng php c lng s dng hm sn xut Tho lun chnh sch v kt lun Ph lc
41 34 29 31 27

26

Ph lc 1: Tnh ton TFP cho Vit Nam giai on 1991-2010 Ph lc 2: Kt qu c lng trong STATA Ti liu tham kho
45

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M u Trong nhng nm gn y, kinh t Vit Nam, mt trong nhng nn kinh t nh v c m ln, tri qua nhiu thay i mang tnh c cu v chu tc ng ca nhng c sc ton cu, l nhng yu t gy ra bin ng mnh trong mc sn lng. C th l tc tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam gim t mc trn 8% trong nhng nm 20062007 xung mc 5,3% vo nm 2009. K t nm 2008, Vit Nam tri qua nhng bin ng kinh t v m ln nh lm pht hai ch s, thm ht ti kha v thng mi nng n1. Vo nm 2007, nn kinh t tng trng nng vi tc tng trng ln ti trn 8% v nm 2008, lm pht vt qu 20%. Sau mt khong thi gian di theo ui mc tiu tc tng trng kinh t cao, ln u tin Chnh ph Vit Nam cng khai tha nhn s nh i gia tng trng kinh t v n nh kinh t v m vo nm 20082. Trong nm 2010, kinh t Vit Nam tip tc phc hi nhanh chng sau khng hong kinh t vi tc tng trng GDP l 6,8%, mc tng trng ny t c mt phn l do mc u t cng tng mnh v tn dng tng trng nhanh chng. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam khng th tip tc duy tr chnh sch m rng ny do chnh sch gy ra mt vng xoy lm pht mi v buc phi thc hin chnh
1Sau

hn 25 nm i mi, Vit Nam c c tng trng kinh t ng n tng, khin cho Vit Nam t v tr mt trong s nhng nc ngho nht khu vc chu vo thi im bt u chuyn i, vn ln v th ca mt nc c thu nhp trung bnh (thp) vo nm 2010. 2Vit Nam chng kin s bng n tn dng vo nm 2007, cng vi l gi nng lng v lng thc thc phm trn th trng th gii tng mnh khin cho p lc lm pht gia tng. Trc dng vn vo mnh (c vn FDI v vn u t gin tip), Chnh ph gp nhiu lng tng. Nhng iu ny thc y Chnh ph phi chuyn u tin t tng trng kinh t sang n nh kinh t v m vo nm 2008: cc nh qun l thc hin chnh sch ti kha v tin t tht cht. Chnh sch ny c hiu lc v gim c lm pht, n nh th trng nh t v thm ch lm v nhng bong bng ti chnh. Do , vo cui nm 2008, khi khng hong n di chun tc ng ti Vit Nam, Chnh ph phi nhanh chng phn ng li bng gi kch thch kinh t c gi tr tng i ln.

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sch tin t tht cht vo u nm 2011. Theo Ngn hng Th gii3, giai on bt n kinh t v m hin ti cng nng n nh giai on gia nm 2008. iu ny thc y Chnh ph phi a ra nhng hnh ng mnh m, quyt lit v hp l c th kim sot c lm pht v chnh nhng hnh ng ny gy ra hin tng ng bng thanh khon trong nn kinh t vi mc li sut ln ti trn 20% trong cc thng lin tip sau . i mt vi nhng bt n kinh t v m v nhng bin ng bi mc lm pht cao vo u nm 2011, Chnh ph ra Ngh quyt 11 nhm kim sot lm pht v thm ht thng mi, bo m n nh kinh t v m. Ti nhiu quc gia trn th gii, k c Vit Nam, nhim v chnh ca chnh sch tin t v chnh sch tn dng l cung cp thanh khon cho nn kinh t, gi cho gi c n nh v h tr tng cu. Chnh ph c th thc hin c cc mc tiu ny, iu quan trng l phi xc nh c nn kinh t ang nm u trong mi quan h vi mc sn lng ti a bn vng, hay cn gi l mc sn lng tim nng. Do sn lng tim nng lin quan cht ch vi lm pht, vic xem xt bin ng ca lm pht l cn thit. Tnh hnh vo u cc nm 2008 v 2011 dng nh cho thy sn lng thc t cao hn sn lng tim nng, tc l khong cch sn lng c con s dng. Mi quan h ny c m t trong Hnh 1. Lm pht trong nhng nm gn y cho thy nhng bin ng mnh m vi hai nm c gi tr cao t bin l 2008 v 2010. ng thi, ba chui s liu lm pht, u t v cung tin cng c nhng im tng ng.

3World

Bank (2011): Taking Stock: An Update on Vietnams Recent Economic Developments (thng 6/2011).

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Hnh 1: Tng trng ca mt s bin s kinh t v m chnh

Ngun: CEIC v TCTK. S liu GDP nm 2011 l s liu ca 6 thng u nm v s liu lm pht nm 2011 l s liu ca 8 thng u nm theo TCTK.

Nghin cu ny s tnh ton sn lng tim nng cho nn kinh t Vit Nam. Mc chnh lch sn lng tng ng4 c xc nh l mc chnh lch t l phn trm gia sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng. Theo nh nhng nghin cu trc y, sn lng tim nng l mc sn lng m nn kinh t c th sn xut mc ton dng nhn cng5. Sn lng tim nng c nh ngha nh mc sn lng ti a m mt nn kinh t c th t c mt cch bn vng m khng gy ra lm pht gia tng (Masi 1997)6, tc l mc sn lng ph hp vi mt t l lm pht n nh7. Hay ni cch khc, sn lng tim nng l mc sn lng ti a m mt nn kinh t c th sn xut m khng gy ra p lc qu mc ln mc gi c. Sn lng tim nng l mc sn lng m tng cu v tng cung ca nn
4Chnh lch sn lng tim nng biu hin cho nhng khc bit trong ngn hn so vi sn lng tim nng.

c lng ca mc chnh lch ny cung cp mt gi tr tiu chun nh gi p lc lm pht, gim pht v v tr ca nn kinh t trong chu k kinh doanh. 5Mc d cm t sn lng tim nng c cc nh kinh t s dng kh rng ri, nhng vn thng c mt s nhm ln trong cch hiu cm t ny. Thng cm t ny c s dng kt hp vi hm nng lc sn xut, hm s phn nh mc u ra m mt nn kinh t c th to ra vi cc u vo sn c. Sn lng tim nng cp ti mc ti a ha mc sn lng bn vng hoc mc sn lng ph hp vi mt mc lm pht n nh. Bt k khi no sn lng thc t vt qu mc sn lng tim nng cng hm rng cc u vo hin ti ang b s dng qu mc v bt u to nn p lc lm pht gia tng. 6Paula De Masi (1997) Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice, International Monetary Fund. 7Tuy nhin, bi mc sn lng tim nng l khng quan st c, cc m hnh c lng khc nhau c th a ti cc kt qu c lng khc nhau cho cng mt nn kinh t.

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kinh t bng nhau v do vy, lm pht c xu hng t mc k vng trong di hn trong trng hp cc yu t khc khng i8. Vic o lng mc sn lng tim nng ca mt nn kinh t v mc chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng l vic lm hu ch nh gi cc chnh sch kinh t v m. Khi mc sn lng thc t cao hn mc sn lng tim nng v xut hin khong cch sn lng th lm pht c xu hng tng do mc cu tng qu mc trong nn kinh t. Trong trng hp ngc li, nu nh chnh lch sn lng tim nng nh hn 0, lm pht c xu hng gim v cc chnh sch kinh t v m s c s dng thc y tng cu. tng v sn lng tim nng, do vy, v bn cht l phn nh nhng thay i ca lm pht trong mt nn kinh t. Tuy vy, sn lng tim nng li khng th quan st mt cch trc tip m cn phi c c lng. bo m c n nh gi c, th k vng v tng trng phi nht qun vi c lng v sn lng tim nng. Khi hai i lng ny khc nhau, cn thit phi c s can thip chnh sch. Mc d khi nim sn lng tim nng c v hp dn v mt l thuyt nhng trin khai nghin cu thc nghim c lng sn lng tim nng li khng d dng. Ngi ta pht trin mt s phng php c lng sn lng tim nng v mc chnh lch sn lng tim nng. Tuy nhin, i khi nhng nhng m hnh/ phng php/ k thut c lng khc nhau c th a ra cc kt qu khc nhau v sn lng tim nng ca mt nn kinh t9. Do khng c phng php no l phng php ti u, cc nh nghin cu khuyn ngh rng nn s dng mt s phng php v so snh kt qu vi nhau. Do , trong nghin cu ny, chng ti cng lm nh vy, s dng c phng php phn tch hi quy n chiu v a chiu, v c
8Khi

mc sn lng thc t vt qu mc sn lng tim nng, tc l chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng chuyn sang du +, cu tng dn ti gia tng trong mc gi c nu nh cc nhn t cung trong ngn hn c gi nguyn. S gia tng trong ngn hn ny c xem nh ngun gc gy ra p lc lm pht v l du hiu Ngn hng Nh nc thc hin chnh sch tin t tht cht. 9Xem thm Gordon de Brouwer (1998); Dupasquier, Guay v St-Amant (1999); Scacciavillani v Swagel (1999); Cerra v Saxena (2000).

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phng php hay c p dng l phng php c lng hm sn xut a ra nhng c lng ng tin cy v sn lng tim nng cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch. Gn y c mt s nghin cu c lng sn lng tim nng cho trng hp ca Vit Nam, bao gm Vn Thnh v cng s (2012), Bi Trinh v cng s (2012) v Maliszewski (2010)10. Nhng tc gi ny p dng cc phng php khc nhau v cc cch tip cn khc nhau c lng sn lng tim nng. Vn Thnh v cng s (2012) n thun da vo c lng theo hm sn xut, Bi Trinh v cng s (2010) s dng ng thi c tip cn theo hm sn xut v tip cn dng b lc HP cn Maliszewski (2010) li s dng cch tip cn hon ton khc, da theo phng php Bayesian. Trong khi hai nghin cu trc tp trung vo cc hm chnh sch, nghin cu ca Maliszewski (2010) tp trung vo vn phng php c lng. Mc d hai nghin cu ca Vn Thnh v cng s (2012) v Bi Trinh v cng s (2010) cng s dng hm sn xut, kt qu c lng ca cc phng php ny hon ton khc nhau. Vn Thnh v cng s (2012) cho rng trong giai on 2011-2015, tc tng trng tim nng trung bnh ca Vit Nam l khong 7,79%, cao hn kh nhiu so vi tc tng trng tim nng 5-6% m Bi Trinh v cng s (2011)11 c lng c. Mt trong nhng hn ch ca hai nghin cu ny l khng c lng cc mc tim nng ca cc thnh phn trong hm sn xut. C th, nh c th hin di y, c th c lng mc sn lng tim nng, chng ta cn phi c lng mc tim nng ca vn, lao ng v nng sut cc nhn t tng hp trong cch tip cn hm sn xut. Mt hn ch khc ca vic s dng kinh t lng c lng hm sn xut m c hai nghin cu ny gp phi l vic s dng s liu chui thi gian kh ngn. Nhn chung,
10Maliszewski 11Bi Trinh v cng s (2011), Bo co Trin vng Kinh t Vit Nam 2012-2013, chun b cho U ban Gim

(2010) Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap; International Monetary Fund.

st Ti chnh Quc gia.

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s liu thng k theo tng nm ca Vit Nam mi ch c trong vng khong 20 nm12. Nghin cu ny c sp xp c cu trc nh sau: Phn II s trnh by ngn gn cc phng php c lng; Phn III s a ra cc kt qu thc nghim. Trc ht, sn lng tim nng v chnh lch sn lng thc t vi sn lng tim nng s c tnh ra da vo cc phng php hi quy n chiu v phn tch xu hng. Tip theo s thc hin c lng hm sn xut v t tnh ra mc sn lng tim nng; v cui cng, Phn IV s tng hp v a ra kt lun. Phng php v hng tip cn V c bn, c hai cch tip cn sn lng tim nng: (i) phng php phn tch xu hng s dng phng php thng k; v (ii) phng php c lng cc quan h c tnh cu trc gia cc bin s quan trng trong nn kinh t. Phng php th nht c gng phn tch chui s liu thi gian thnh cc thnh phn xu hng c nh v cc thnh phn mang tnh chu k. Trong khi , phng php th hai (tc l phng php s dng hm sn xut hoc c lng theo phng php vector t hi quy m hnh cu trc - SVAR) li c gng loi b nhng tc ng c cu v nhng tc ng mang tnh chu k khi sn lng thc t. Phng php phn tch xu hng thng k c th c p dng m khng cn cc thng tin v cc bin s v m khc, trong khi tip cn theo m hnh cu trc li xc nh mc sn lng tim nng da vo nhiu bin s kinh t v m khc. Nhng phng php tip cn thng k ny li b hn ch do yu cu chui s liu thc t phi di hn. ng thi, phng php thng k cng khng gii thch c nhng thay i mang tnh c cu trong nn kinh t, nhng iu kh ph bin i vi cc nc ang pht trin nh Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, phng php p dng hm sn xut cng
12Nghin

cu ca chng ti xt li cch tip cn da trn hm sn xut c lng mc sn lng tim nng cho Vit Nam. Thay v c lng li hm sn xut theo kinh t lng, chng ti da vo k thut hch ton tng trng tiu chun c lng gi tr sn lng tim nng cho Vit Nam.

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b hn ch do tnh sn c ca cc s liu cng nh cht lng/ tnh ng tin cy ca s liu thu thp c13. Xu hng tuyn tnh Phng php xu hng tuyn tnh l mt phng php n gin tch xu hng khi dy s liu GDP thc t. Phng php ny da trn gi nh rng sn lng tim nng l mt hm s xc nh ca thi gian v chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng l phn cn li sau khi tch xu hng. Sn lng tim nng c th hin bi ng xu hng tuyn tnh c th c c lng theo m hnh sau:

Trong Yt* l sn lng tim nng, l h s c c lng trong m hnh hi quy vi mc sn lng thc t ph thuc theo xu hng thi gian v t=1,2,........, t l cc ch s v thi gian14. Trong thc t, chng ta thc hin hi quy hm thi gian tuyn tnh theo log GDP mc gi c nh v c bn m ni th vic ny tng ng vi vic s dng tc tng trng trung bnh quan st c trong c giai on trong nghin cu. Vic gi nh mt
phng php c s dng gn y c lng sn lng tim nng l phng php vector t hi quy m hnh cu trc (SVAR). M hnh SVAR t trc ti gi vn c coi l cng c c lc trong cc phn tch v c ch tc ng tin t v ngun gc ca cc bin ng chu k kinh t. Li th ca vic tip cn theo m hnh SVAR nm vic m hnh ny c th kt hp cc l thuyt kinh t vi cc k thut thng k phn bit cc thay i mang tnh di hn v tm thi trong mc sn lng. i mi (c coi l c sc trong h thng) trong m hnh SVAR c phn tch a tr li v th trc cc c sc. S dng cc quy tc xc nh, cc c sc mang tnh c cu c tch thnh cc c sc v cung v sc v cu. Tc ng ca sc cu ln sn lng tim nng c phn loi l tc ng ngn hn trong khi tc ng ca sc cung l tc ng lu di. Ph thuc vo mc sn c ca s liu m m hnh SVAR s dng cc thng tin t mt s cc bin c xem l c mi quan h ng k nh GDP, kh nng ti u ha v lm pht trong nc, c lng mc GDP tim nng v mc chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng. Phng php s dng m hnh SVAR tn dng mi quan h gia lm pht v tng trng phn bit cc thay i mang tnh ngn hn hay lu di trong sn lng tim nng - tng trng nhanh hn vi lm pht thp hn cho thy nn kinh t ang vn hnh di mc tim nng, trong khi khi p lc lm pht tng ln hn ch tng trng li hm tng trng vt qu mc tim nng. Trong khung kh phn tch ca nghin cu ny v do nhng hn ch v ngun lc cng nh thi gian, nhm nghin cu khng thc hin c lng theo phng php ny. Thay vo , chng ti s tch ring phng php ny trong cc nghin cu sau. 14Mc chnh lch sn lng c tnh ton theo cng thc , trong Gapt l mc chnh lch sn lng, Yt l mc sn lng thc t v Yt* l mc sn lng tim nng c c lng theo m hnh (1).
13Mt

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mc tng trng c nh tng ng vi vic c lng mi quan h logarit - tuyn tnh: , trong 1 l tc tng trng tim nng c lng c. Li th c bn ca phng php tuyn tnh ny l s n gin do phng php ny ch s dng thng tin chui thi gian ca mc sn lng thc t. Tuy nhin, phng php ny c kh nhiu hn ch. Trc ht, khi gi nh s pht trin trong di hn ca chui thi gian l mi quan h chc chn c nh, phng php ny ng thi gi nh rng sn lng tim nng c th c d on mt cch hon ton15. Th hai, mc chnh lch sn lng tim nng tnh c t phng php tuyn tnh l d b thay i theo cc khong thi gian s dng trong hi quy. Do vy, khi thc hin c lng bng phng php ny phi ht sc cn thn trong vic la chn ng khong thi gian do iu ny c tc ng ti kt qu cui cng. V th ba, gi nh sn lng tim nng tng vi mt tc khng i nhn chung kh c th bo m (de Brouwer 1998)16. Phng php s dng b lc Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Mt phng php khc c lng xu hng thi gian l gi nh tc tng trng tim nng khng phi l khng i theo thi gian. C th thc hin iu ny thng qua vic s dng mt s b lc, vi mc ch chnh l xc nh cc thnh phn cu thnh xu hng ca chui s liu thi gian. tng c bn ca cch tip cn ny l phn tch cc chui s liu kinh t cn phn tch (v d nh log
hng tuyn tnh ca GDP c th c c lng khi tnh n c cc c sc mang tnh cu trc (structural breaks). iu ny tng ng vi vic gi nh c nhng tc tng trng khc nhau i vi mc sn lng tim nng ti cc giai on thi gian khc nhau. Cch lm ny cng c th dn ti cc mc sn lng tim nng khc nhau cho cc chu k kinh t khc nhau. Thay vo , chng ti cng c lng theo xu hng thi gian vi phng trnh bc hai cho sn lng tim nng m trong mc sn lng c xem nh dng hm bc 2 ca thi gian. Thnh phn bc 2 trong thi gian hm cha cc yu t tc ng khng tuyn tnh trong chui s liu thi gian. vi bin trend = 1,2 n; v trend2 = 1,4 n2. 16Trong iu kin tng trng sn lng c th c phn tch thnh tc ng ca cc phn t cc yu t sn xut, khng th gi nh rng nhng yu t ny l khng i theo thi gian, c bit khi mt nc tri qua nhng thay i v k thut hoc c nhng tin b. Mt im cn tnh n nh vic xu hng tuyn tnh c th c coi l c ngha hn cc nc pht trin so vi cc nc ang pht trin c tc tng trng khng c n nh bng.
15Xu

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ca GDP) thnh tng ca mt xu hng pht trin c nh v mt sai khc tm thi khi xu hng c gi l chu k:

Chui s liu trong quan st = Xu hng c nh + Chu k Khng ging vi phng php hi quy tuyn tnh - phng php coi mi quan st c trng s nh nhau - phng php b lc ny gn cho mi quan st mt trng s khc nhau ty thuc vo mc gn gi ca quan st ny vi khong thi gian trng tm trong nghin cu. Phng php ph bin nht c s dng tch xu hng khi chui s liu thi gian l phng php s dng b lc HP, l mt th tc thng k lm trn s liu v tr nn ph bin bi tnh linh hot v kh nng tch c xu hng khi cc ch s thng k kinh t v m. B lc HP phn tch chui s liu thi gian Yt thnh hai thnh phn: Thnh phn tng trng (Y*) m c th c coi nh sn lng tim nng v thnh phn mang tnh chu k (Mc chnh lch) c coi l chnh lch gia sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng:

Phng php ny da vo gi nh l cc thnh phn mang tnh chu k dao ng quanh thnh phn tng trng vi tc ng gim dn theo thi gian (time diminishing amplitudes). Do , trung bnh ca cc sai lch ca Yt so vi gi tr Y* c gi nh xp x bng 0 cho c giai on. Phng php b lc HP lm mt xu hng thi gian ph hp i vi tt c cc quan st trong mt chui s liu cho trc, khng tnh n bt k mt thay i t ngt mang tnh c cu no xy ra, bng cch cho php cc h s hi quy thay i theo thi gian. iu ny c th thc hin c thng qua vic tm mt xu hng thi gian c th ti thiu ha tng ca cc chnh lch gia sn lng thc t vi sn lng theo xu hng tt c cc thi im v tc thay i trong sn lng theo xu hng ti quan st thi
19

im cui cng (T). B lc HP phn tch xu hng t, bng cch gii bi ton c bn sau: Trong h s lm trn quyt nh mc lm trn ca chui s liu xu hng c iu chnh (lm mt), . Biu thc trong du ngoc u tin th hin mc ph hp gia hm c lng v s liu thc t, biu thc th hai phn nh mc th rp ca hm c lng. Nh c th thy trong biu thc trn, b lc HP c lng sn lng tim nng bng cch tnh ton gi tr trung bnh trt c trng s s dng cc gi tr trong qu kh v c tng lai ca sn lng quan st c vi trng s ln hn cho nhng nm gn vi thi im tnh ton sn lng tim nng hn. B lc HP cng i hi phi la chn gi tr ca h s lm trn trong biu thc cn ti thiu ha trn. Gi tr ca h s phi l mt s ln hn 0, b p nhng bin ng trong chui thnh phn tng trng v c th c xc nh ty thuc vo mc lm trn s liu cui cng m ngi tnh ton mun. Gi tr nh cho php tnh ra mc sn lng tim nng dao ng theo nhng thay i ca mc sn lng thc t; trong khi , gi tr ln s gim co gin ca xu hng i vi nhng thay i ngn hn ca mc sn lng thc t. iu ny cng phn nh vic la chn gia mt chui sn lng tim nng tng i mt vi la chn mt chui sn lng tim nng st vi gi tr thc t. Trong , xu hng c chng c cc trng hp c bit, v d nh s xp x chui s liu thc t (yt) v khi , xu hng c c lng tr thnh gn nh tuyn tnh. Mt gi tr nh hn cng tng ng vi mt mc sn lng cng st vi gi tr thc t quan st c, do cng l mt chui bin ng mnh hn. Ngc li, mt gi tr cao hn s cho mt ng sn lng trn hn v do vy gn vi mt ng xu hng tuyn tnh hn. Nhng kt qu ny c gii thch bi thc t l gi tr thp th tng ng vi vic s dng t
20

s nm trong cng thc tnh trung bnh trt hn. Nhn chung, gi tr 16 00 c p dng cho cc chui s liu theo qu v gi tr t 10 ti 100 thng c p dng cho s liu thng k theo nm. Bng vic p dng cc gi tr khc nhau, cn phi lu rng gi tr cng ln th s khc bit gia sn lng thc t v sn lng theo xu hng cng ln. Mc d thc t l phng php b lc HP c p dng kh nhiu trong cc nghin cu, phng php ny cng c mt s hn ch. Trc ht, phng php ny cho nhng kt qu kh tt cc nn kinh t n nh v khng tri qua nhng c sc ng k. Trong trng hp ny, b lc HP v cc phng php kinh t lng khc trong c lng sn lng tim nng t ra tt hn so vi phng php tuyn tnh. Tuy nhin, cc nn kinh t ang pht trin li tri qua nhiu c sc khc nhau tc ng ln tc tng trng trong ngn hn nhng khng nht thit lm thay i mc sn lng tim nng. Mt hn ch khc ca phng php s dng b lc HP l cc thay i mang tnh cu trc (structural breaks) cng b lm mt bi b lc ny. Do , tc ng ca cc thay i mang tnh cu trc c xu hng b phn tn qua mt vi giai on, thay v ch nm trong mt giai on ring bit - v d nh trng hp xy ra i vi xu hng tuyn tnh, giai on c thay i cu trc c xc nh r. Hn na, b lc HP c xu hng to ra chu k mang tnh gi to, tc l b lc ny t to ra chu k ngay c khi chu k khng tn ti trong s liu gc. Tuy nhin, phng php ny cng c nhng u th trong vic bo m chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng c lng c (thnh phn mang tnh chu k) l mt dy dng17.
17Mt

bt li khc ca phng php s dng b lc HP l khin cho cc mu nhng thi im cui ca mu quan st c kh nng b chch ln. Vic ti thiu ha qu trnh to chui s theo xu hng, l nhm gim thiu nhng sai khc khi xu hng v lm mt chui s liu theo xu hng. Tuy nhin phn cui ca mu, qu trnh ny li khng c thc hin. Do , phn ng ca xu hng s c v gn vi c sc ngn hn phn cui ca chui s liu mu hn so vi phn ng ca xu hng vi c sc phn gia ca chui s liu. De Brouwer (1998) kt lun rng s dng b lc HP kh nhy i vi cc gi tr h s khc nhau, iu ny hm rt kh xc nh mt h s lm trn thch hp. Mc d vy, khng xt ti bt li ny, phng php s dng b lc HP vn c p dng c lng sn lng tim nng bi phng php ny thc hin kh n gin.

21

Phng php tip cn theo hm sn xut Nhng phng php c cp trn l nhng th tc thng k nhm mc ch xc nh xu hng ca mt chui s thi gian. Hn ch chnh ca nhng phng php ny chnh l vic nhng phng php thun tu ch l nhng th tc thng k n gin v v bn cht mang tnh k thut v hon ton b qua tt c nhng thng tin v nhng rng buc cu trc cng nh nhng hn ch trong sn xut do s sn c cc yu t sn xut hoc cc tc ng ni sinh khc (endogenous influences). Do vy, nhng phng php ny c th khng o lng c tc ng ca nhng c sc mang tnh c cu ln sn lng tim nng v nhng c lng v chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng thu c t nhng phng php ny c th khng ng tin cy. Cc phng php phn tch xu hng trn c th khng thng nht vi nhng iu quan st hoc nhng gi nh v tng trng vn, cung lao ng hoc nng sut cc nhn t tng hp. V vy, sn lng tim nng thu c t bt k phng php no trong cc phng php c m t trn u c th c nhng bin i khng mu thun vi nhng thay i trong vn tch ly, lao ng v nng sut. Mt cch tip cn thay th cho cc phng php thng k phn trn l s dng hm sn xut. Phng php ny c tc dng l khc phc c nhng thiu st bng cch tnh n s sn c d nhiu hn hay t hn ca cc yu t sn xut. Trong cc nghin cu, hm sn xut hai yu t Cobb-Douglass thng c s dng lm c s cho vic c lng sn lng tim nng thng c dng , trong A l nng sut cc nhn t tng hp hm (TFP), L l yu t lao ng trong hm sn xut, K l vn tch ly v l co gin theo yu t lao ng ca hm sn xut (ng thi cng th hin t l thu nhp ca yu t lao ng)18. Vi khung phn
18Tnh

cht ca hm sn xut ny l: t l thun vi yu t lao ng trong cc yu t trong sn xut, co gin ca lao ng v vn l dng v c tng bng 1. Vi dng hm sn xut Cobb-Douglas, gi tr cng ng thi l phn thu nhp ca lao ng trong tng sn lng u ra, vi gi nh rng mc lng phn nh ng mc sn phm cn bin ca lao ng.

22

tch ca phng php tip cn hm sn xut, chng ta s c c sn lng tim nng khi cc yu t sn xut, lao ng v vn c s dng cng mc ti u (tc l mc tim nng) v khi s pht trin cng ngh tun theo xu hng trong di hn. mc tim nng ny, hm sn xut Cobb-Douglas dng c lng cho sn lng tim nng c th c tuyn tnh ha t dng sang dng , trong * th hin mc tim nng ca cc bin: Y* l sn lng tim nng, L* v K* l cc u vo lao ng tim nng (hay ni cch khc l ton dng nhn cng) v u vo vn tim nng, A* l mc nng sut cc nhn t tng hp tim nng (TFP*) v l co gin theo lao ng ca sn lng tim nng ((dYY)(dLL)). c lng sn lng tim nng i hi phi xc nh c mc u vo vn (K*) mc ton dng nhn cng v lao ng tim nng (L*), mc TFP tim nng (TFP*) v mc thu nhp ca lao ng . Mc lao ng tim nng (L*) c xc nh trc bng vi s lao ng khi t l tht nghip gi tr cn bng19. i vi vn mc ton dng nhn cng (K*), gi tr vn tch ly thc t c s dng thay th cho mc vn tim nng do vn tch ly khng th bin ng ng k. Cc nghin cu cng thng gi nh vn tch ly lun c s dng mc tim nng: K*=K. Gi tr TFP tim nng (TFP*) c tnh t phng php s dng b lc HP gi nh rng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp c xu hng thay i ring. c lng c cc gi tr K*, TFP* v L*, nhm nghin cu cn phi c lng h s (h s ny c th thu c t c lng s dng kinh t lng, hoc gi nh h s ny bng mt gi tr nht nh theo cch tip cn hch ton tng trng). Hin nhin, gi tr ca h s s tc ng n gi tr TFP thc t v mc TFP tim nng.

19Ti cc quc gia pht trin, mc tht nghip ti im cn bng c xc nh bi mc tht nghip t nhin.

23

So vi cc phng php khc, tip cn theo hm sn xut cho php phn tch su hn cc thnh t ng gp vo tng trng tim nng ca nn kinh t. Tuy nhin, phng php ny li s dng nhng gi nh mang tnh n gin ho vn , v d nh gi nh v dng hm sn xut hoc mc lao ng tim nng m c th nhng gi thit ny khng nht thit c tha mn. ng thi, s liu s dng trong phn tch c th khin cho nhng c lng b sai lch. Trong trng hp cc phng php c lng s dng s liu cng gp v lao ng v vn, rt kh c th c c kt qu c lng tt do cc bin s ny c s dng cc mc ti u khc nhau v c bn cht khc nhau. Hn na, rt kh xc nh thc t th no l ti u hon ton cc nhn t sn xut20. Cui cng, vic gii thch ngha kinh t ca phn d trong c lng m hnh Solow cng kh kh khn. Tuy nhin, phng php tip cn theo hm sn xut cho php s dng cc thng tin t nn kinh t c lng gi tr sn lng tim nng, v c th hu ch trong cc phn tch khc nhau. Theo nh cc tho lun trn trong phn m u ca nghin cu ny, vic s dng cc phng php kinh t lng c lng hm sn xut gp phi vn chui s liu thi gian qu ngn. i vi d liu theo nm ch c khong 20 quan st v cha m bo ngha v mt thng k. Thay vo , nhm nghin cu da vo khung phn tch hch ton tng trng phn tch tng trng theo cc yu t ng gp nh vn, lao ng v TFP. Chui s ny sau c lc thng qua b lc HP thu c gi tr tim nng ca cc yu t. S liu Tnh sn c ca s liu l mt tr ngi i vi cc nghin cu kinh t Vit Nam bi: (i) khng c s liu theo chui thi gian di; v (ii) tnh ng tin cy v kh nng c th tip cn c cc s liu chui thi gian. Trong phn tch ca nhm nghin cu, chng
20V

d trong trng hp mt lng vn tch ly khng c s dng na do tin b cng ngh phi dn c thay th v lao ng theo cng phi c o to c th vn hnh c nhng cng ngh mi.

24

ti da vo s liu t nhiu ngun khc nhau, trong s dng cc ngun c cng b rng ri t cc c quan thng k thuc Chnh ph nh B Ti chnh, c s d liu CEIC21. Ph thuc vo s sn c ca s liu i vi mi m hnh v i vi mi bin, chng ti s la chn nhng chui s liu ph hp v m hnh ph hp c lng sn lng tim nng. V d, i vi m hnh theo thi gian v theo phng php HP, chng ti s dng c s liu theo nm v s liu theo qu. Tuy nhin, i vi phng php tip cn theo hm sn xut, do s liu v u t v lao ng khng c theo qu nn nhn chung cch tip cn ny c p dng i vi s liu theo nm. Trong cc phn di y, chng ti s cung cp y tn sut s dng s liu cng nh ngun ca cc s liu . Kt qu c lng Phng php tuyn tnh Nh trn phn tch, cch n gin nht c lng chnh lch sn lng tim nng l tnh ton sn lng tim nng theo xu hng tuyn tnh. i vi trng hp ca Vit Nam, chng ti thc hin tnh ton i vi c chui s liu theo nm v chui s liu theo qu. S liu theo nm ko di trong khong thi gian t nm 1990 n nm 2010; trong khi , s liu theo qu ko di t nm 2000 ti nm 2011. Nhn vo Hnh 2 c th thy chui s liu GDP ca Vit Nam (gi tr logarit ca GDP), hay ni cch khc chui s liu sn lng ca Vit Nam cho thy mt xu hng kh r rng. Gi tr GDP thc ( mc gi so snh nm 1994) cho thy xu hng nhn chung tng v c mt s bin ng kh r nt quanh xu hng ca sn lng22.

21Macroeconomic

22Cc nghin cu thc nghim ch ra rng i vi nhiu quc gia, chui s liu v sn lng khng c c

database for global emerging and developed markets, ca CEIC Data Company Ltd.

gi tr trung bnh khng i theo thi gian v do khng phi l chui s liu dng. Tuy nhin, vi s lng quan st t trong chui s liu, rt kh c th kt lun chui s liu l dng hay khng.

25

Hnh 2: Gi tr GDP hng nm v tc tng trng

Ngun: C s d liu CEIC.

c lng sn lng tim nng cho chui s liu theo nm c lng sn lng tim nng cho chui s liu theo nm c kt qu nh trong biu thc di y23: t-stat (1303) (100) R-square 0.99; DW=0.4

Kt qu cho thy h s ca phng trnh c c lng c mc ngha ln v ng hi quy rt st vi ng thc t (gi tr R-squared = 0,99). c lng ca sn lng tim nng (Khung a) v mc chnh lch sn lng tim nng (Khung b) da theo ng tuyn tnh c th hin trong Hnh 3. Hnh 3 cho thy trong nhng nm u ca ci cch kinh t, nn kinh t vn hnh di mc sn lng tim nng (tc l chnh lch m hay nh hn 0) v vn hnh vt qu mc sn lng tim nng trong thi k bng n kinh t trong sut nhng nm 1995-2000. Mt ln na, mc chnh lch sn lng tim nng chuyn thnh m trong nhng nm u th k 21 v chuyn du
23Mc d kh n gin v phi c thm gi nh v tuyn tnh, phng php c lng xu hng tuyn tnh

vn c p dng phn tch cho mt s nc (Njuguna v cng s (2005) cho trng hp ca Kenya; Erotokritos (2006) cho trng hp ca Hy Lp; Scheibe (2003) cho trng hp ca Trung Quc; Brouwer (1998) cho trng hp ca Australia; Botas v cng s (1998) cho trng hp ca B o Nha; Yap (2003) cho trng hp ca Phillipine; Vasconcelos Araujo v cng s (2004) cho trng hp ca Brazil; Benk v cng s (2005) cho trng hp ca Hungary; v.v

26

thnh dng (hay ln hn 0) k t nm 2005 n 2008. Nm 2009 v 2010, chnh lch sn lng li m tr li mc d lm pht cao24. Theo phng php ny, mc tng trng tim nng l khong 7,2%.

Hnh 3: Sn lng tim nng v chnh lch sn lng, s liu theo nm giai on 1990-2010
13.5
.04
Year linear potential output

13

GDP 12.5

12

11.5

-.04

1990

1995 log GDP

2000

2005

2010

-.02

output gap 0

.02

1990

1995

2000 year

2005

2010

Khung a: Sn lng tim nng

Khung b: Chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng

Ngun: C s d liu CEIC.

c lng sn lng tim nng s dng s liu theo qu c lng sn lng tim nng v chnh lch sn lng tim nng s dng s liu theo qu c th gii thch c r hn s dng s liu theo nm. Trong phn ny, chng ti p dng phng php tuyn tnh tng t cho s liu theo qu. S liu theo qu ch c t nm 1999 song giai on ny cng c v ph hp hn vi mc ch chnh sch. Hnh 4 cho thy, nh k vng t trc, tnh thi v ca s liu theo qu l tng i ln (Khung a). Sau khi loi b tnh ma v bng cch s dng bin gi kh n gin, s liu GDP ca Vit Nam iu chnh tnh thi v c th hin trong Khung b Hnh 425.
24Thc

t c v i lp ny (mc chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng m trong khi lm pht cao) c th c gii thch bi mc sn lng tim nng (nng lc sn xut) ca nn kinh t thc b tc ng ng k bi khng hong kinh t n ni bt k n lc no ca Chnh ph nhm thc y nn kinh t trong ngn hn cng ch c th dn ti lm pht do nn kinh t khng c kh nng phn ng li trc s kch thch ny. 25Hnh biu din cng cho thy chui s liu c v khng phi chui dng.

27

Hnh 4: GDP theo qu trc v sau khi loi b tnh ma v

13

11.5

11

-.4

-.2

log GDP deseasoned 0 .2

log GDP 12

12.5

.4

1999q3

2002q3

2005q3 newtime

2008q3

2011q3

1999q3

2002q3

2005q3 newtime

2008q3

2011q3

Khung a: S liu gc theo qu (log)

Khung b: GDP iu chnh ma v (log)

Ngun: C s d liu CEIC.

c lng sn lng tim nng theo qu cho kt qu nh trong biu thc di y: t-stat (-76,69) (88,12) R-square 0,99; DW=1,18

Kt qu ny cho thy xu hng kh ph hp vi s liu thc t (vi gi tr R-square = 0.99). Gi tr c lng sn lng tim nng s liu theo qu (Khung a) v chnh lch (Khung b) da trn phng php xu hng tuyn tnh c th hin trong Hnh 5. Nh c th thy, trong thi k u, ng xu hng kh khp vi gi tr sn lng thc t, tuy nhin, xu hng ny khng c duy tr cho n s liu ca nhng nm gn y. S liu sn lng tim nng theo qu c c lng bng khong 1,68% mi qu. Nh vy tc tng trng GDP hng nm cng khong 7,96% mt nm (theo nh cch c lng ny).

28

Hnh 5: Sn lng tim nng v chnh lch sn lng, s liu theo qu giai on 1999-2010
.4
.05

.2

-.4

-.2

log GDP deseasoned

newtime

-.05

1999q3

2002q3

2005q3

2008q3 linear potential output

2011q3

output gap 0

1999q3

2002q3

2005q3 newtime

2008q3

2011q3

Khung a: Sn lng tim nng

Khung b: Chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng

Ngun: C s d liu CEIC.

Tuy nhin, kt qu thu c t s liu theo nm v s liu theo qu cng th hin nhng hn ch ca phng php c lng xu hng tuyn tnh, khi gi nh rng tc tng trng kinh t tim nng l khng i trong c giai on. iu ny khng ng trong iu kin sn lng thc t tng ko di, do vy c s cho vic tnh ton tc tng trng cho thy rng tc tng trng tim nng c th khng c nh26. Phng php s dng b lc Hodrick-Prescott Hnh 6 cho thy sn lng thc t (sau khi c iu chnh ma v) so vi mc sn lng tim nng c c lng theo b lc HP. Mc sn lng c lng c theo phng php ny c lm mt hn nh d tnh. Nh c th thy trong Hnh 6, trong thi gian u, mc sn lng thc t quan st c tng i st vi ng sn lng tim nng c lng. Tuy nhin, trong nhng
26Tuy

nhin, c th c cch l gii cho iu ny, mc chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng c lin h mt thit vi chu k kinh t, do vy i vi d liu qu kh v phng php c lng tuyn tnh khng tnh n cc c sc hoc cc thay i mang tnh c cu. Hn na, thng k Durbin-Watson cng cho thy mt s minh chng v vn t tng quan trong phn d thng k, hm vn cha xc nh ng dng m hnh.

29

nm gn y, sn lng thc t c v bin ng kh nhiu quanh ng xu hng ca sn lng tim nng. V nn lu l tc ng ca khng hong kinh t nm 2008 khng c phn nh do phng php lc HP. iu ny c th l do bn cht ca phng php ny, do s dng b lc n chiu nn phng php ny vn gy ra vn sai lch vo cui chui gi tr mu.

Hnh 6: Sn lng tim nng s dng b lc HP

.4 -.4 -.2 0 .2

1999q3

2002q3

2005q3

2008q3 log GDP deseasoned

2011q3

newtime potential output HP filter

Hnh 7 cho thy b lc HP lc tc tng trng GDP t tc tng trng thc t quan st c. c lng ca chng ti cho thy sn lng tim nng ca Vit Nam trong sut giai on l khong 1,6% trung bnh qu, tnh tng ng khong 6,5% mt nm.

Hnh 7: S dng b lc HP v gi tr GDP thc t

.05 -.05 0

1999q3

2002q3 HPgrowth

2005q3

2008q3

2011q3

newtime observed GDP growthrate

30

Hnh 8 so snh c lng theo phng php xu hng tuyn tnh v phng php s dng b lc HP.

Hnh 8: So snh c lng theo phng php tuyn tnh v s dng b lc HP

.05

-.05

1999q3

2002q3

2005q3

2008q3 output gap HP filter

2011q3

-.4

-.2

.2

.4

1999q3

2002q3

2005q3

2008q3 linear potential output

2011q3

newtime output gap linear trend

newtime potential output HP filter

Phng php c lng s dng hm sn xut Nh trnh by phn trn, c th s dng phng php tip cn hm sn xut, chng ta cn phi c c cc gi tr tim nng ca mc vn, lao ng v nng sut. Trong nhng phn tch tng t cho cc nc khc, mc lao ng tim nng (L*) thu c bng cch s dng t l tht nghip t nhin NAIRU. Tuy nhin, s liu v t l tht nghip t nhin ny khng sn c trong trng hp ca Vit Nam. Trong nghin cu ny, chng ti s s dng lc lng lao ng nh mt bin thay th i din cho lao ng tim nng v s dng b lc HP thu c gi tr mc tim nng. V mc vn K v mc vn tim nng K*, Vit Nam hin vn cha c s liu thng k chnh thc v vn vt cht cho sn xut, do vy chng ti s xy dng ch s ny s dng cc thng k c lin quan v cc gi nh thng thng trong cc nghin cu trc y. Chui s thi gian tng ng c tnh da theo tiu chun PIM (Perpetual Inventory Method - phng php kim k lin tip). i vi trng hp ca Vit Nam, mc d khng c s liu v vn tch ly song li thu thp c s liu v u t (capital formation). Chng ti xy dng chui s v tch ly vn da trn nhng gi nh nh sau: (i) vn tch ly trong nhng nm u tin l t l thun vi sn lng
31

(GDP) ca nm , ngha l . H s l t l lng vn trn sn lng27; v (ii) lng vn tch ly c th c tnh ton theo phng php kim k lin tip, tc l , l t l khu hao I l tng u t trong khong thi gian t-1. T l khu hao c gi nh khong 6% mt nm. Trong c lng ca chng ti, nm u tin l 1986 v gi nh h s vn trn sn lng bng 2. Tng t, gi tr TFP v TFP tim nng cng cn phi c c lng. Trong khung tip cn theo hch ton tng trng, h s c gi nh l mt gi tr xc nh. i vi mt s nc, h s ny thng c gi nh bng (v d trong nghin cu ca Ngn hng Albania do Vasilika Kota thc hin nm 2007, gi tr 1- c gi nh bng 0,3). Trong phn tch ca chng ti, cc d liu gn y v bng phn tch u vo, u ra IO nm 2005 cho thy gi tr ny vo khong 0,642 (phn ng gp ca lao ng) gi tr cng tng i st vi con s 0,66. Do vy, chng ti gi nh rng gi tr ca Vit Nam cng bng nh cc nc khc. Mt khi gi tr c xc nh, chng ti c th tnh ton c gi tr TFP l phn cn li ca biu thc c nu trn. Sau s dng b lc HP lm mt cc gi tr TFP v thu ly gi tr tim nng (TFP*).

Hnh 9: Sn lng tim nng: tip cn theo hm sn xut

27Gi

nh ny theo m hnh Harrod-Domar vi quan im c mi quan h n nh gia mc sn lng v vn tch ly ph thuc vo tnh c cu ca cng ngh hin ti c s dng.

32

Da vo cc gi tr L*, K* v TFP*, chng ti c th thc hin tnh ton sn lng tim nng cho Vit Nam giai on 1985-2010 v biu din trong Hnh 9 c gi tr GDP thc t v gi tr tim nng tng ng. C th thy, gi tr sn lng tim nng bm kh st vi gi tr GDP thc t trong sut giai on. Chnh lch sn lng tim nng v sn lng thc t c th thy trong Hnh 10. Theo cch tip cn ny, mc chnh lch c gi tr dng trong giai on t nm 2005-2008. Nu tin tng vo gi tr chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng c lng c y, mc lm pht cao vo nm 2008 l c nguyn nhn su xa t ba nm trc . Hnh 10 ng thi cng cho thy trong hai nm gn nht (2009 v 2010), do khng hong ti chnh, mc sn lng thc t thp hn mc sn lng tim nng.

Hnh 10: Chnh lch sn lng tim nng: tip cn theo hm sn xut

Hnh 11 cho thy tc tng trng thc t v tc tng trng tim nng thu c t phng php tip cn theo hm sn xut. Cng thng nht vi chnh lch sn lng c cp phn trn, c th thy ti nhng thi im tc tng trng thc t thp hn tc tng trng tim nng. Theo phng php tip cn ny, tc tng trng tim nng trung bnh vo khong 6,8% mt nm, cao hn mt cht so vi gi tr tnh ton c t phng php s dng b lc HP (6,5%), tuy nhin li thp hn so vi gi tr nhn c t phng php c lng theo xu hng tuyn tnh (7,9%).
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Hnh 11: Tc tng sn lng tim nng v sn lng thc t tip cn theo hm sn xut

Tho lun chnh sch v kt lun Nghin cu ny s dng mt s phng php tip cn khc nhau c lng mc sn lng tim nng ca nn kinh t Vit Nam. c lng mc chnh lch sn lng tim nng cung cp cho ta nhng thng tin quan trng nh gi p lc lm pht hoc gim pht v v tr theo chu k tng ng vi tim nng pht trin di hn ca nn kinh t. Phn tch sn lng tim nng dn ti hai ng li can thip chnh sch ring bit. Trong ngn hn, chnh lch gia sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng i hi cc chnh sch ti kha v tin t tp trung nhiu vo pha cu, sao cho cc bin php trong ngn hn c th y nn kinh t quay tr li v tr tim nng ca n. Tuy nhin, trong di hn, pha cung li c ch trng do mc tng trng tim nng c xc nh bi nng sut cc nhn t tng hp, lao ng v vn u vo. Bt c chnh lch no gia sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng cng c th gy hi cho sc khe ca nn kinh t trong di hn. Trong ngn hn, nu sn lng thc t ln hn sn lng tim nng, nn kinh t ang c d cu. Tnh trng ny thng c xem nh ngun gc ca p lc lm pht v i hi phi gim tng cu, tng ng vi gim chi tiu ca Chnh ph hoc tht cht chnh
34

sch tin t. Trng hp ngc li cho thy s d tha nng lc sn xut, v nh vy cn c chnh sch tin t ni lng hoc cc chnh sch khc thc y cu. Suy thoi kinh t ton cu cui nm 2008 l mt v d cho thy s cn thit ca cc bin php can thip chnh sch. Mc chnh lch sn lng m khong 2 im phn trm trong nm 2008 l du hiu ca nn kinh t ang tri qua thi k tng cu b nh tr. Tht nghip gia tng v xut khu suy gim nh hng ti thu nhp. Khi m tng trng ca nn kinh t nhn chung ch duy tr mc thp, nhng n lc ci thin cc phc li x hi v gim thiu i ngho s b hn ch ng k. chng li cc tc ng tiu cc ca cuc khng hong ton cu, Chnh ph thc hin ni lng chnh sch tin t v a ra mt gi kch thch ti chnh tr gi 8 t USD thng qua cc hnh thc nh gim thu, thc hin u t cng, a ra cc gi chuyn giao x hi v tr cp li sut tng ng khong 10% GDP. Kt qu ca nhng bin php kch thch ny cng vi s phc hi ca nn kinh t ton cu gip cho tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam phc hi nhanh trong nm 2010, ch yu l thu hp mc chnh lch sn lng v a nn kinh t tr li mc pht trin tim nng. Tuy nhin, a nn kinh t quay tr li mc tng trng bn vng trong di hn th khng ch da vo cc chnh sch ti kha v tin t, l nhng chnh sch ngn hn. Sn lng tim nng khng phi l yu t khng i, thng qua cc bin php ph hp, mc sn lng tim nng c th tng ln qua thi gian. Phng php tip cn vn qua hm sn xut cho thy vic tng bt k mt hay tt c ba yu t: nng sut cc yu t tng hp, lao ng v vn u vo u c th lm tng mc sn lng tim nng. Trong tnh hnh sn lng tim nng st gim lin tc, chng ti s tho lun v tng yu t ca sn lng tim nng cng nh nhng lnh vc c th can thip ci thin sn lng tim nng. Cch kh nht nhng cng l cch quan trng nht tng mc sn lng tim nng trong di hn l tng nng sut cc nhn t tng
35

hp. Mc d mc tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam vn c duy tr kh vng chc trong vng 20 nm qua, bn cht ca nhng kt qu n tng ny thc s thay i. Trong nhng nm 1990, mc tng trng kinh t mnh m l do da trn nng sut cc nhn t tng hp (TFP) tng i cao, yu t ny chim khong 50% tc tng trng hng nm. Nhng khi chuyn qua giai on 1998-2008, ng gp ca yu t ny gim xung, ch cn chim khong 11%. Tng trng ca nng sut cc nhn t tng hp thng c cho l ng gp vo tng trng ca nn kinh t thng qua cc ci tin v t chc v k thut, da trn nhng th ch php l lnh mnh. N i din cho s tng trng ca nn kinh t khi khng c tc ng ca lao ng hay vn. i vi mt nn kinh t ang pht trin nh Vit Nam, tng trng thng qua nng sut cc nhn t tng hp (TFP) cn cha c khai thc mt cch y do cn thiu cc ci cch th ch. Cng tc qun tr doanh nghip ngho nn, u i cn c dnh qu nhiu cho cc doanh nghip nh nc hot ng km hiu qu v thiu u t vo c s h tng, y t v gio dc l nhng nguyn nhn km hm tng trng thng qua nng sut cc nhn t tng hp. Do thiu vng s tng trng nng sut, mt nn kinh t tng trng da vo u t vn vt cht tr nn y bin ng khng phi l iu ng ngc nhin. i vi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch, khng c bin php c th no h tr tng trng trong TFP. Chng ti gi nn thc hin nghin cu xc nh cc im nghn tng trng cho trng hp ca Vit Nam, qua a ra cc chnh sch ph hp. May mn l tc ng ca lao ng n tng trng tim nng li t phc tp hn. Trong hai thp k qua, ng gp ca lao ng n tc tng trng c gi n nh mc khong 18%. ng gp ny c th c o lng da trn tng s gi lm vic ca lao ng trong nn kinh t. Thng thng, y l mt hm ca dn s, lc lng lao ng ang lm vic v s gi lm vic ca cng nhn trong mt khong thi gian nht nh. im ng lu l cc bin
36

ny u gp phn vo s n nh trong tc ng ca tng lao ng ti tng trng kinh t. Hng ti tng lai, trong thi gian ti, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch nn lu ti cc yu t ny. Ch li tc nhn khu hc ca Vit Nam vn c cp nhiu, trong , dn s trong tui lao ng ca Vit Nam l yu t quan trng hng u ca u vo lao ng. Cng vi thi gian, li ch t li tc nhn khu hc s gim, nu khng tin hnh cc bin php cn thit kch thch ngi dn tham gia lao ng nhiu hn th lao ng u vo tim nng c th b gim ng k. Mt nn kinh t khuyn khch u t nhiu hn vo gio dc, tp trung nhiu hn vo lao ng ton thi gian v c nhiu khuyn khch hn cho lao ng bc cao ( c hai gii) s to ra mt mc sn lng tim nng cao hn. Tm li, trong thi gian ti, Vit Nam cn theo ui nhng ci cch th ch gip to ra mt th trng lao ng c k nng v linh hot. c bit quan trng, mc sn lng ny c th bin ng khi nng sut tng ln, thay i c ng tng trng ln mc cao hn v bn vng hn. Ngc li, st gim trong nng sut cng c th c xem nh st gim trong tc tng trng ca nn kinh t m khng lm tng lm pht. Thay i trong cc yu t u vo nh vn v lao ng cng c th c nhng tc ng ny song nhng yu t d b nh hng bi quy lut li nhun cn bin gim dn. Tng nng sut, d l iu rt kh c c, li chnh l yu t quan trng bo m duy tr tng trng kinh t. Cui cng, tc ng ln nht vo tng trng kinh t trong nhng nm gn y l vn. Vic y mnh u t vn trong giai on 1998-2008 ng gp khong 70% vo tng trng hng nm, t mc 28% nm 1990-1997. S gia tng ny c thc y bi hai yu t. Yu t th nht l gia tng trong vn u t trc tip nc ngoi do nn kinh t m ca. Vit Nam chng kin hai giai on thu ht u t trc tip nc ngoi tng t bin: giai on th nht vo khong 1994-1997 vi vn u t trc tip nc ngoi
37

trung bnh bng khong 9% GDP; giai on th hai l vo nm 2007 - sau khi Vit Nam gia nhp WTO - t l cng vo khong hn 9% GDP v sau duy tr mc 7% cho ti nm 2010. Chng no m u t nc ngoi cn hng ti khu vc sn xut xut khu th th tc tng trng yu t TFP s tng ln do cnh tranh ton cu thc y cc ngnh ny phi nng cao hiu qu28. Yu t th hai thc y gia tng u t ca Vit Nam l khu vc kinh t nh nc. K t khi thc hin chnh sch i mi nm 1986, t trng u t ca khu vc kinh t nh nc ca Vit Nam c xu hng gim dn. Tuy nhin, trong bi cnh khng hong kinh t ton cu nm 2008 ko theo s st gim trong u t ca khu vc kinh t t nhn, th u t ca khu vc kinh t nh nc li tng ln nhanh chng, mt phn l do gi kch thch kinh t. Trong u t ca khu vc kinh t nh nc c u t ca cc doanh nghip nh nc (DNNN). Nhng doanh nghip ny va m rng quy m ngnh kinh doanh chnh v cng thc hin u t ngoi ngnh kinh doanh chnh. H qu l trong qu I/2011, khong 45% tng u t x hi l u t t khu vc kinh t nh nc, trong khi t trng u t t khu vc kinh t t nhn trong nc v khu vc c vn u t nc ngoi ch chim ln lt khong 27% v 29%29. Vit Nam, dng nh mc hoc xu hng u t l mt trong s nhng yu t gy ra bt n kinh t v m. L do c th l do vn u t tng nhanh hn tc m nn kinh t c th to ra nhng lao ng c k nng cn thit c th thc hin cc khon u t hoc nhn cng lm vic trong cc nh my v cng xng mi . Trong khi khu vc DNNN l ra thng hot ng trong cc ngnh thm dng vn v do vy phi thc hin cc khon u t thng xuyn th gn y cc DNNN li thc hin u t ra ngoi ngnh kinh doanh chnh, dn ti rt nhiu vn pht sinh. R rng nht l
28FDI

l yu t tng i quan trng bi nhiu l do, trong bao gm c vai tr ca FDI i vi vic b p cho thm ht ti khon vng lai. 29Phn ng gp ca yu t lao ng trong c hai giai on u tng i n nh, vo khong 18%.

38

nhng kh khn trong vic tr n ca cc DNNN, mt du hiu cho thy s khng hiu qu trong cc khon u t v do khng to ra li nhun nh d kin . Nghin cu ca Ngn hng Th gii (Bo co Pht trin Vit Nam - 2012) tnh ton s st gim hiu qu ca DNNN. Nu nh trong nm 2000, DNNN to ra c 1,6 ng sn lng t mt ng vn th n nm 2009 gim xung ch cn 1,1 ng sn lng. Trong cng mt khong thi gian, cc doanh nghip t nhn ca Vit Nam tng hiu qu t mc to ra 8,8 ng sn lng t mt ng vn ln mc 21 ng sn lng t mt ng vn. Trong khi cc DNNN c mong i to ra nhng khc bit c bn so vi cc doanh nghip t nhn do cc doanh nghip ny thng trong cc ngnh cng nghip thm dng vn v c cc trch nhim x hi (thng th hin cc khon u t phi thng mi nhng cn thit), th nhng thay i trong giai on 2000-2009 nh ni l rt ng lo ngi. Khi cc doanh nghip t nhn tr nn hiu qu hn th hiu qu s dng vn ca cc DNNN li gim st. iu ny cng tng t i vi nng sut lao ng, khu vc DNNN c nng sut trn mi lao ng ang gim dn (mc d su vn tng ln) trong khi khu vc kinh t t nhn li c sn lng trn mi lao ng tng dn ln trong giai on 2000-2009. Cn xem xt n quy m v v th chin lc ca cc DNNN trong ci cch kinh t v iu ny c th h tr tng bn vng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp. Ci cch trong ni b DNNN cng c th tp trung vo ci thin m hnh qun tr v tng tnh minh bch. iu ny c th gip lm tng nim tin ca nh u t v cho php Chnh ph xc nh cc vn n sm hn. Ci cch DNNN cng hm thay i cc quy tc vn hnh th trng v m hn cho cnh tranh d l trong nc hay vi nc ngoi. To mt sn chi bnh ng s tng s cnh tranh cng nh nng sut, thc y tng trng v khng cn nhng khon u t km bn vng.
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Mc d cc phn tch v chnh lch sn lng tim nng l mt cng c hu ch h tr vic thc hin cc chnh sch ti kha v tin t ngn hn m khng i hi phi ci cch v th ch, v th trng lao ng v u t, nhng nu ch da vo th trin vng kinh t trong di hn ca Vit Nam nhn chung vn c th khng sng sa. Duy tr tc tng trng kinh t v tng thu nhp bn vng ch c th thc hin c nu nh nng sut tng ln. u t ca Nh nc hiu qu hn, ti c cu doanh nghip nh nc cng nh vic ci thin cc iu kin th trng c th gia tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp v thc y nn kinh t Vit Nam theo mt mc tng trng cao v bn vng hn. V pha cc nh hoch nh chnh sch, cc mc tiu cn t c (sn phm u ra tim nng) cn phi c xy dng da trn tnh hnh thc t (mc tng trng tim nng).

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PH LC
Ph lc 1: Tnh ton TFP cho Vit Nam giai on 1991-2010 Tng trng theo m hnh tn c in bao gm hai ngun: tch ly cc nhn t v tng nng sut. Nng sut v c bn l mt khi nim mang tnh k thut cp ti mt t l u ra so vi u vo v l mt thc o hiu qu30. Nng sut cc nhn t tng hp (TFP) l mt khi nim tn c in s dng o lng nng sut, trong c tnh n tt c cc yu t cn li trong hm sn xut. TFP l mt khi nim c lin quan kh cht ch ti hm sn xut tng gp. dng n gin nht, hm sn xut ca c nn kinh t c th c biu din di dng Yt = F(Kt, Lt, t) trong sn lng (Y) c biu din nh mt hm ca cc yu t vn tch ly (K), lao ng (L) v yu t dch chuyn thi gian (t). Yu t dch chuyn l mt bin i din cho gia tng trong nng sut v tin b cng ngh. K hiu t i cng vi cc bin s th hin cho thi gian. Gi nh rng yu t thay i t c lp i vi K v L, chng ta c th thu c Yt = At F(Kt, Lt). V t cng thc ny c th suy ra gi tr A nh sau: . Tnh ton theo cng thc ny, c xem nh mt bin ngoi sinh, tch ri, l yu t tin b k thut trung tnh Hicks31 c o bng thay i trong mc sn lng khi thi gian thay i v cc yu t u vo K v L khng i. Hai phng php thng dng nht c
cp ti mt yu t u vo n l (tc l nng sut n l ca mt yu t), nhn chung nng sut ca lao ng (Q/L), khi nim nng sut khng gy ra nhm ln g. Tuy nhin xem xt trong trng hp c nhiu hn mt yu t u vo (v d vn v lao ng), vn ny sinh s l lm th no tnh c t trng ca tng yu t theo t l. 31Tin b k thut xy ra khi sn phm trung bnh v sn phm cn bin ca tt c cc yu t tng ln vi cng mt t l. V d xt hm y=f(K, L), trong y l sn lng, L l lao ng v K l vn v hm s f(.) c li sut khng i theo quy m. Vi tin b k thut trung tnh Hicks, tc l khi nng sut ca cc yu t tng ln ti khi >1, mc sn lng s l y*(L,K)=f(L, K)=y. Ngc li, theo tin b k thut trung tnh Harrod (tit kim lao ng) hoc tin b k thut iu chnh n thun yu t lao ng l trng thi m nng sut lao ng tng trong khi yu t vn khng c s thay i , do vy mc sn lng sau nhng tin b k thut ny s c dng y*(L,K)=y(L,K).
30Khi

41

s dng c lng yu t TFP l hch ton tng trng v c lng hm sn xut. Trong phn ny, chng ti s tm tt ngn gn hai phng php ny. Mc ch ca phng php ny l xc nh tng trng kinh t do tch ly cc yu t tng ln v do tin b k thut ng gp vo nh th no. Do K v L c o lng bng cc n v khc nhau, c th gy kh khn trong vic din gii TFP nh l mt h s t l ca sn lng vi cc u vo kt hp, nn chng ti biu din TFP di dng tc tng trng ca yu t ny. Ly o hm ca hm sn xut theo yu t thi gian (t), chng ta c th thu c tc tng trng ca TFP theo cng thc sau:

Trong ln lt l k hiu tc tng trng ca sn lng, lao ng v vn, cn l tc tng trng TFP. Cng thc biu din tc tng trng cc yu t cng kh tng ng vi cng thc th hin co gin. Xt v thc t, TFP c tnh ton s dng cng thc . Cng thc ny tch bit nhng ng gp ca nhiu yu t khc vo tng trng v nhng phn khng gii thch c a vo yu t TFP. Cch tip cn ny v TFP c cp ti nh phn d trong m hnh Solow sau khi Solow (1957) s dng khung phn tch ny c lng tc tng nng sut trong ngnh cng nghip ch bin ca M giai on 1909-1949. Trong phng php tip cn theo hch ton tng trng (phng php khng c yu t ngu nhin), chng ta khng th c lng yu t TFP v mt thng k v khng cn thit phi c lng cc h s v (hai h s ny c tng bng 1). Ngc li, vi cch tip cn theo hm sn xut, chng ta c lng TFP cng vi cc h s v s dng kinh t lng, cc thng k kim nh trong khung kh phn tch kinh t lng cng c th c p dng y. Trong c lng kinh t lng, cc h s nhn chung l khng b rng buc v khng nht thit phi c tng bng 1 (tr khi buc phi tun theo
42

mt s rng buc c li sut khng i theo quy m m bo + =1). Thay v s dng phng php hch ton tng trng, chng ta cng c th c lng trc tip hm sn xut tng th ca nn kinh t. n gin, dng hm hay c s dng trong c lng nht l hm sn xut Cobb-Douglas. Hm s c c lng vi s liu cho trc s c dng trong o lng tc tng trng bnh qun ca sn lng trong iu kin gi nguyn cc yu t u vo v l nhiu ngu nhin.

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Ph lc 2: Kt qu c lng trong STATA Kt qu c lng m hnh 1: c lng chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng s dng cch tip cn theo xu hng thi gian vi s liu theo nm

Kt qu c lng m hnh 2: c lng chnh lch sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng s dng cch tip cn theo xu hng thi gian vi s liu theo qu

44

TI LIU THAM KHO

Bi Trinh v cng s (2011), Bo co Trin vng Kinh t Vit Nam 2012-2013, chun b cho U ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia. Maliszewski (2010), Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap; International Monetary Fund. Paula De Masi (1997), Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice, International Monetary Fund. Paul D. McNelis and Cristeta B. Bagsic (2007), Output Gap Estimation for Inflation Forecasting: The Case of the Philippines, Center for Monetary and Financial Policy, BSP Working Paper Series No. 2007-01, Central Bank of Philippines. Jrg Scheibe (2003), The chinese output gap during the reform Period 1978-2002, Working paper, University of Oxford. Njuguna, Angelica E.; Karingi, Stephen N.; and Kimenyi, Mwangi S., (2005), Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya. Economics Working Papers. Paper 200545. Erotokritos Varelas (2006), Output Gap - Inflation: The Case of Greece (1858-1938) International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. Gordon de Brouwer (1998), Estimating output gaps, Discussion Paper Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Susana Botas, Carlos Robalo Marques and Pedro Duarte Neves (1998), Estimation Of Potential Output For The Portuguese Economy, Economic bulletin December 1998, Banco de Portugal. Josef T. Yap (2003), The Output Gap and its Role in InflationTargeting in the Philippines, Discussion paper series no. 2003-10, Philippine Institute for Development Studies. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo; Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa; Osmani Teixera de Carvalho Guilln (2004), Estimating Potential Output and Output Gap for Brazil; Banco Central do Brasil. Szilrd Benk, Zoltn M. Jakab, Gbor Vadas (2005), Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches, Central bank of Hungary, Economic Research Department. Scacciavillani, Fabio and Swagel, Phillip, Measures of Potential Output An Application to Israel (July 1999), IMF Working Paper, Vol., pp. 1-28, 1999. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000, Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap - An Application to Sweden, IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund. World Bank (2012), Vietnam Development Report - A level playing field: Reforming the stated-owned sector, World Bank. World Bank (2011), Taking Stock: An Update on Vietnams Recent Economic Developments (June 2011).

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C LNG SN LNG TIM NNG CHO VIT NAM

Chu trch nhim xut bn: chu ho Bin tp: nguyn bch thy Sa bn in: Hong Nam V ba: Thi Dng

ISBN: 978-604-908-668-7
In 1000 cun, kh 16x24 cm ti Doanh nghip t nhn In H Pht. Giy ng k KHXB s: 180-2013/CXB/14-04/TrT. Quyt nh xut bn s: 12/QLK - NXB TrT ca Gim c NXB Tri thc ngy 12/04/2013. In xong v np lu chiu Qu II nm 2013.

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D n H tr nng cao nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m do y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi ch tr thc hin vi s h tr k thut ca Chng trnh Pht trin Lin hp quc (UNDP). Mc tiu ca D n l nng cao nng lc cc c quan tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m thng qua cc hot ng: (i) tp hun/o to nng cao nng lc; (ii) thc hin nghin cu, i thoi chnh sch v nhng vn kinh t v m; (iii) tng cng v th ch ha c ch phi hp, hp tc gia cc c quan th hng d n, bao gm y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi, Vn phng Trung ng ng, Vn phng Chnh ph, Vn phng Ch tch nc, y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia v Vin Hn lm Khoa hc X hi Vit Nam. H tr thc hin D n l mng li cc Vin, Trng, Trung tm nghin cu kinh t, bao gm Vin Kinh t Vit Nam, Trung tm Phn tch v D bo (thuc Vin Hn lm Khoa hc X hi Vit Nam), Vin Nghin cu Qun l kinh t Trung ng (CIEM), i hc Kinh t (thuc i hc Quc gia H Ni), i hc Kinh t Quc dn H Ni, Trung tm Thng tin v D bo Kinh t - X hi Quc gia (thuc B K hoch v u t), Trung tm Nghin cu chnh sch v pht trin (DEPOCEN - Trung tm nghin cu c lp) v Nhm t vn chnh sch kinh t v m (MAG). Trong thi gian qua, D n h tr t chc nhiu din n i thoi gia cc i biu Quc hi, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch vi cc chuyn gia kinh t trong v ngoi nc v cc vn kinh t v m bc thit ca t nc. Sau mi hi tho, ta m u c nhng kin ngh c th, di hnh thc Kin ngh Chnh sch (Policy Note), gi ti cc v i biu Quc hi v cc c quan th hng ni trn tho lun v xem xt trong qu trnh xy dng chnh sch. Tiu biu l Din n Kinh t Ma xun, Din n Kinh t Ma thu, 10 kin ngh n nh kinh t v m nhn c nhiu nh gi tch cc t cc i biu Quc hi v chuyn gia kinh t. u tin th hai l trin khai mt lot nghin cu da trn bng chng thc nghim gn vi nhng vn kinh t v m hin thu ht nhiu s quan tm ca cc nh hoch nh chnh sch nh t gi, n cng, tnh ton sn lng tim nng v.v... Cc khuyn ngh chnh sch t nhng nghin cu ny cng c gi ti cc v i biu Quc hi v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch di hnh thc Tm tt Chnh sch (Policy Brief ).