Cardinality Bayes Theorem

How Big is a Set?

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Motivating Example: Drug Tests

A drug test gives a false positive 2% of the time (that is, 2% of those who test positive actually are not drug users) Cardinality And the same test gives a false negative 1% of the time (that is, 1% of those who test negative actually are drug users) How Big is are a Set? If Joe tests positive, what the odds Joe is a drug user? Insufficient information! Suppose we know that 1% of the population uses the drug?
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Setting Up the Drug Test Problem

Let T be the set of people who test positive Let D be the set of drug users These are events, and Pr(T|D) is the probability that a drug user tests positive Cardinality Pr(T|D) = .99 because the false negative rate is 1%, that is, 99% of drug users test positive, 1% test negative How Big is a Set? We want to know: What is Pr(D|T)? This is a very different question: What is the probability you are a drug user, given that you test positive?
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Bayes Theorem
Theorem: If Pr(A) and Pr(B) are both nonzero,

(*)Pr( A | B) Pr( B) = Pr( A B) = Pr( B | A) Pr( A)

How Big is a Set? by the definition of conditional probability: and Pr( A B) similarly for Pr(B|A). Pr( A | B) = , Pr( B) Then divide the left and right sides of (*) by Pr(B|A)Pr(B).
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Proof. We know that

Pr( A | B) Pr( A) = Pr( B | A) Pr( B) Cardinality

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Bayes, v. 2
Pr( A) Pr( B | A) Pr( A | B) = Pr( B | A) Pr( A) + Pr( B | A) Pr( A)
This enables us to calculate Pr(A|B) using only the Cardinality absolute probability Pr(A) and the conditional probabilities Pr(B|A) and Pr(B|A). Pr( Aa |B ) Pr( A) How is Set? Proof. We know that Big

Pr( B | A)

Pr( B)

Now multiply by Pr(B|A) and rewrite Pr(B) using the law of total probability.
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Drug Test again

Suppose that a drug test has
2% false positives (that is, 2% of the people who test positive are not drug users ) 1% false negatives (1% of those who test negative are drug users).

Cardinality

How Big is a Set? Suppose 1% of the population uses drugs. If you test positive, what are the odds you are actually a drug user?
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Drug test, contd

Let D = Uses drugs Let T = Tests positive
Pr( D ) = .01 Pr(T | D ) = .02

Cardinality

How Big is a Set? Pr(T | D ) = .99

What is Pr(D|T)?

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Pr( D ) = .01 Pr(T | D ) = .02 Pr(T | D ) = .99

Pr( D ) Pr(T | D ) Pr( D | T ) = Pr(T | D ) Pr( D ) + Pr(T | D ) Pr( D ) .01 .99 = .33 .99 .01 + .02 .99

Cardinality If you fail the drug test, there is only one chance in three you are actually a drug user! How can this be? Think about it.
How Big is a Set? Out of 1000 people there are 10 drug users and
990 non-users. Of those 990, 2% or almost 20 test positive. Almost all of the 10 users also test positive. So there are 2 non-users for every user, among those who test positive! 1/18/12% Harry% Lewis/CS20/CSCI% E4 120/with% thanks% to% Albert% R.% Meyer%

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FINISH

Cardinality
How Big is a Set?

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