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Value Indicator - Uk Main Market 20131002
Value Indicator - Uk Main Market 20131002
02 October 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued ....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Over Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 October 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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02 October 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 October 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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02 October 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVON RUBBER
550.50
297.50
550.50
Sell
Sell
508
0.93
BAE SYSTEMS
455.90
300.80
468.00
Neutral
Buy
623
0.70
CHEMRING GROUP
304.40
217.00
353.30
Neutral
Buy
337
0.67
COBHAM
290.20
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
297
0.82
MEGGITT
549.50
366.20
564.00
Neutral
Sell
519
1.25
QINETIQ GROUP
193.70
179.00
211.10
Neutral
Sell
116
0.65
1134.00
835.76
1240.00
Neutral
Buy
1522
0.98
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
SENIOR
Target
Beta
273.40
185.90
288.40
Neutral
Neutral
274
1.66
SMITHS GROUP
1419.00
1018.00
1419.00
Neutral
Sell
1223
0.76
1905.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1725
0.51
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
GKN
349.50
201.00
360.70
Neutral
Sell
-1699
1.96
INCHCAPE
606.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2808
1.41
LOOKERS
121.50
71.50
128.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
631
1.22
PENDRAGON
34.25
13.50
35.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
1.04
TOROTRAK
26.00
23.50
36.50
Neutral
Sell
12
0.73
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
269.80
203.45
308.39
Neutral
Sell
Target
-853
Beta
1.96
671.10
580.50
769.90
Neutral
Buy
820
1.19
74.64
37.01
78.00
Neutral
Sell
1.88
368.30
257.30
372.70
Neutral
Sell
-100
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1471.50
1380.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3285
1.67
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARR (AG)
526.50
432.20
588.50
Neutral
Sell
417
BRITVIC
574.50
349.10
592.00
Neutral
Buy
808
0.73
DIAGEO
1956.50
1746.50
2136.50
Neutral
Buy
2279
0.51
SABMILLER
3055.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4978
0.89
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
0.58
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Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
361.10
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3678
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
292.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
535
1.11
CARCLO
388.00
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
123
0.74
2666.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3220
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
239.70
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
294
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2813.00
2190.00
2985.00
Neutral
Buy
3961
1.44
VICTREX
1609.00
1331.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1325
1.16
SYNTHOMER
240.00
146.00
249.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
370
1.05
ZOTEFOAMS
195.00
186.50
225.00
Neutral
Buy
283
1.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
135.00
77.50
137.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
291
0.55
BALFOUR BEATTY
282.60
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1092
0.82
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
Target
Beta
312.20
174.50
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
640
1.67
BELLWAY
1319.00
913.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2982
0.96
0.55
2118.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5220
BOOT (HENRY)
184.00
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
373
0.74
729.00
487.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1496
1.07
CARILLION
309.20
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1614
1.06
CLARKE (T)
67.00
40.00
68.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
405
0.76
263.75
226.25
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1170
0.50
CRH
1502.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
908
1.03
GALLIFORD TRY
1055.00
678.00
1070.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3093
0.93
KELLER
1043.00
549.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2492
1.28
KIER GROUP
1692.00
1106.00
1692.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5584
0.99
74.25
50.00
80.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
233
1.08
MARSHALLS
169.75
85.00
184.00
Neutral
Buy
215
1.33
747.50
508.00
750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4798
0.70
COSTAIN GROUP
NORCROS
20.25
11.25
21.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
72
1.02
1106.00
685.75
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2084
0.99
REDROW
234.50
152.90
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
477
0.84
SIG
186.80
102.00
193.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
554
1.68
38.50
38.50
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4461
0.89
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
101.30
54.70
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
1.58
TRAVIS PERKINS
1685.00
1060.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4613
1.94
WOLSELEY
3296.00
2636.64
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6300
1.30
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1135.00
999.50
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
1067
0.67
644.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
894
1.12
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
145.75
105.50
148.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
291
1.25
INVENSYS
500.00
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
293
1.42
LAIRD
220.40
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
452
2.06
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1330.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1165
1.11
RENISHAW
1815.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2098
1.28
SPECTRIS
2250.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2860
1.51
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
172.50
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-436
0.76
TT ELECTRONICS
196.25
114.00
200.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
440
1.61
XAAR
824.00
247.50
898.00
Neutral
Sell
424
1.08
DIALIGHT
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
128.75
54.25
128.75
Sell
Buy
Target
147
Beta
1.14
BODYCOTE
650.00
345.10
685.00
Neutral
Neutral
658
1.59
CASTINGS
425.00
291.00
450.00
Neutral
Buy
581
0.93
VESUVIUS
440.60
263.19
487.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1202
2.23
FENNER
393.00
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Buy
578
1.47
HALMA
567.50
410.40
578.00
Neutral
Sell
428
0.79
472.50
364.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
560
1.31
1460.00
902.00
1513.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4523
1.39
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
310.00
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
515
1.89
2789.00
2229.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
282
1.01
59.75
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
51
0.79
3025.00
1932.53
3090.00
Neutral
Sell
1851
0.81
VITEC GROUP
683.50
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
489
1.34
WEIR GROUP
2335.00
1688.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2291
1.45
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
421.30
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
791
0.45
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
279.80
248.60
302.50
Neutral
Buy
380
0.37
SAINSBURY (J)
390.20
321.90
400.80
Neutral
Buy
459
0.55
TESCO
359.10
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
192
0.67
97.00
28.63
100.50
Neutral
Sell
61
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1886.00
1308.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1617
0.59
CRANSWICK
1155.00
732.50
1189.00
Neutral
Buy
1727
0.31
DAIRY CREST
460.00
339.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
386
0.88
DEVRO
323.00
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
490
0.36
PREMIER FOODS
152.00
59.75
166.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
249
1.23
738.00
671.00
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1294
0.65
2358.00
2262.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2111
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
25.50
24.00
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
46
0.67
522.50
266.40
577.00
Neutral
Neutral
534
0.50
1657.00
1000.00
1667.00
Neutral
Sell
1285
1.29
661.50
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
256
0.87
46.52
20.00
47.67
Neutral
Neutral
45
1.46
245.00
108.00
253.75
Neutral
Sell
154
1.04
Target
Beta
30.25
23.00
34.00
Sell
Sell
12
1.03
398.30
265.60
406.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
606
0.71
1060.00
670.00
1073.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2120
0.51
69.50
39.00
88.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
125
1.22
KINGFISHER
389.50
262.20
420.00
Neutral
Buy
563
0.90
501.00
359.00
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
764
0.61
69.00
51.50
74.88
Neutral
Buy
87
0.95
385.25
212.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
136
0.36
NEXT
5175.00
3496.00
5205.00
Neutral
Neutral
5496
0.59
TED BAKER
1914.00
908.00
2017.00
Neutral
Sell
1080
0.57
89.00
46.50
94.00
Neutral
Sell
82
1.50
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.00
130.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
116
0.38
CONSORT MEDICAL
880.00
660.50
880.00
Neutral
Sell
673
0.35
OPTOS
159.25
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
174
1.18
766.50
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
663
0.40
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
820.00
601.00
823.50
Neutral
Neutral
795
0.31
HEADLAM GROUP
395.50
295.00
415.00
Neutral
Buy
462
0.89
79.00
55.25
87.50
Neutral
Sell
47
0.69
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
998.00
577.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
442
0.69
CSR
520.00
330.90
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1554
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
65.50
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Buy
82
0.93
326.90
235.10
552.00
Neutral
Sell
238
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
127.10
118.00
169.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
400
0.90
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
174.50
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-20
0.93
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02 October 2013
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Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1225.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-481
0.52
AMLIN
403.50
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1538
0.38
BEAZLEY
211.70
167.30
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
953
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
484.70
455.30
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
477
0.23
HISCOX
654.50
463.32
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1909
0.42
0.30
ADMIRAL GROUP
Target
Beta
946.00
723.00
949.50
Neutral
Buy
1215
119.70
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.35
NOVAE GROUP
506.50
345.00
520.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3451
0.35
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2069.00
2069.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3244
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
151.00
62.25
153.80
Neutral
Sell
93
1.65
TUI TRAVEL
368.50
235.70
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
684
0.96
901.50
716.00
969.00
Neutral
Sell
562
0.27
GREENE KING
787.00
587.00
897.50
Neutral
Sell
573
0.89
LADBROKES
168.20
168.20
243.10
Neutral
Buy
245
0.90
1820.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1581
1.09
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
556.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
550
1.36
404.70
289.50
460.00
Neutral
Sell
250
0.98
122.00
101.30
156.00
Neutral
Sell
59
1.28
14.75
6.15
15.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
64
1.15
153.00
137.30
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
540
0.97
0.66
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
541.00
362.20
575.00
Neutral
Sell
366
WETHERSPOON (JD)
738.00
483.20
767.00
Neutral
Sell
645
0.54
WHITBREAD
2993.00
2300.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2045
0.98
WILLIAM HILL
415.50
299.96
494.50
Neutral
Sell
341
0.84
MARSTON'S
148.10
115.10
165.50
Neutral
Sell
10
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
408.10
294.10
419.80
Neutral
Sell
375
1.18
CHESNARA
273.00
176.50
276.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
533
0.61
197.30
131.40
203.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
504
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
187.10
166.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
404
1.55
PRUDENTIAL
1185.00
820.00
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1206
1.69
622.50
371.90
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6878
0.83
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
02 October 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
150.25
102.00
150.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.40
880.50
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.46
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
50.50
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
759.50
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.06
1160.00
747.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.93
INFORMA
526.00
380.50
545.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.64
ITE GROUP
289.00
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.46
ITV
178.70
85.65
183.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.21
JOHNSTON PRESS
14.00
8.01
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1250.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
PHOTO-ME INTL.
112.00
46.75
113.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.85
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
298.50
269.00
298.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.14
36.29
26.85
36.59
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
256.00
91.00
262.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
173.00
85.25
174.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.49
TRINITY MIRROR
121.00
51.25
128.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.58
UBM
720.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.34
212.50
125.00
212.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.83
1265.00
788.00
1296.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.25
PEARSON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1484.50
1207.00
2072.00
Neutral
Sell
1227
1.85
195.75
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
201
1.09
ANTOFAGASTA
816.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
813
1.42
1805.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2817
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
330.50
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
982
#NA
LONMIN
315.20
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
425
2.05
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4338.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2765
0.48
RIO TINTO
2996.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2413
1.55
992.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2675
2.29
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1175.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
874
0.84
BP
432.45
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
978
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
262.50
251.80
296.10
Neutral
Sell
-23
1.33
9.90
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
107
0.81
800.50
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
555
1.35
62.75
48.50
81.00
Neutral
Sell
-57
1.33
327.70
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
399
1.49
2116.00
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8143
0.83
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
398.00
290.14
398.00
Neutral
Buy
469
0.52
1031.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
683
1.07
797.50
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
707
1.44
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
02 October 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
120.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Buy
164
PZ CUSSONS
416.20
304.40
432.50
Neutral
Sell
369
0.71
4463.00
3568.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4600
0.31
Beta
0.83
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.33
0.33
3.58
Strong Buy
Sell
-3
0.91
3211.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8472
0.49
BTG
382.00
317.50
397.90
Neutral
Sell
196
0.70
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
715.00
569.00
780.00
Neutral
Buy
813
0.18
1558.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1818
0.50
0.53
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
Target
Beta
2.15
1.33
2.83
Buy
Sell
-3
63.50
51.50
612.50
Neutral
Sell
-261
0.90
2505.00
1727.00
2593.00
Neutral
Sell
1410
0.69
SKYEPHARMA
97.88
43.50
101.75
Neutral
Sell
66
0.55
VERNALIS
29.50
19.38
31.00
Neutral
Sell
10
0.84
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
460.00
312.00
460.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
764
BRITISH LAND
581.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
876
1.05
2400.00
1946.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5405
1.24
550.00
442.20
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1260
1.06
HAMMERSON
506.00
458.00
554.00
Neutral
Buy
591
1.27
INTU PROPERTIES
324.90
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
608
1.14
924.50
762.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1887
1.16
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
1.18
29.50
24.25
38.75
Neutral
Sell
-182
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
119.70
103.20
120.50
Neutral
Sell
-10
0.34
MCKAY SECURITIES
171.00
131.50
171.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
302
0.65
470.00
325.00
500.00
Neutral
Sell
250
0.37
330.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
117
0.26
46.25
30.69
47.25
Neutral
Sell
-420
0.62
1.82
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
SEGRO
313.80
221.60
313.80
Neutral
Sell
-341
SHAFTESBURY
607.00
522.50
668.00
Neutral
Buy
909
1.04
222.00
178.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-0
1.04
WORKSPACE GROUP
481.00
271.50
481.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1535
1.02
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 October 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
344.10
218.70
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
686
Beta
0.73
40.50
22.75
42.00
Neutral
Sell
-54
0.56
CLS HOLDINGS
1171.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2954
0.73
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4200.00
2706.00
4200.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
14858
0.47
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
205.50
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
195
0.98
GRAINGER
181.00
105.10
187.50
Neutral
Sell
112
1.57
HELICAL BAR
297.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
207
0.83
34.50
21.50
34.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
230
0.63
6412.50
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14654
0.68
1.02
86.75
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-213
RAVEN RUSSIA
76.00
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
211
1.52
622.00
391.20
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1795
0.69
0.32
SAVILLS
87.50
72.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
373
ST MODWEN PROPS.
SMART (J)
308.20
194.00
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
635
1.63
UNITE GROUP
392.50
260.70
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1652
1.78
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
113.00
109.60
162.00
Neutral
Buy
143
0.66
2625.00
1975.75
2650.00
Neutral
Sell
1504
1.52
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
530.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1484
0.90
KOFAX
363.00
260.75
388.00
Neutral
Neutral
347
1.04
30.25
20.75
30.25
Sell
Sell
27
0.81
762.00
543.00
812.50
Neutral
Buy
1048
0.81
PHOENIX IT GROUP
158.50
130.00
184.00
Neutral
Sell
-222
0.73
RM
109.00
64.00
114.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
270
0.54
2008.00
1275.00
2190.00
Neutral
Neutral
2177
0.77
330.60
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
440
0.69
INNOVATION GROUP
MICRO FOCUS INTL.
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
378.70
316.50
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1228
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
272.70
169.80
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
643
0.69
8676.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
80665
0.85
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
456.50
260.00
474.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1408
0.93
CHARLES TAYLOR
210.00
155.00
228.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1619
0.65
1185.00
830.00
1189.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4760
0.85
96.30
90.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
77
0.86
5.45
0.75
5.70
Neutral
Sell
-124
0.61
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
189.60
109.10
192.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
783
ICAP
369.90
280.80
422.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
819
1.07
446.00
287.20
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2198
1.70
INVESTEC
396.60
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2594
1.56
1567.00
930.00
1652.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6661
1.13
83.10
71.80
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4773
1.39
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1575.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5386
0.71
SCHRODERS
2613.00
1518.00
2631.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8040
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
2193.00
1190.00
2193.00
Sell
Strong Buy
11173
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 October 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
275.00
157.75
284.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
604
0.83
AGGREKO
1541.00
1541.00
2370.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3148
1.14
AMEC
1073.00
965.50
1150.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3224
1.11
620.00
336.10
730.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
945
1.64
1218.00
940.00
1218.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2523
0.49
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
Target
Beta
630.00
372.50
637.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2281
0.80
1352.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2700
0.50
600.00
261.88
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1587
0.42
1015.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1838
0.54
61.50
34.54
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
424
0.83
COMPASS GROUP
849.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1932
0.75
BERENDSEN
906.00
563.00
939.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3269
1.08
DE LA RUE
972.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2315
#NA
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
DIGNITY
1430.00
922.31
1567.68
Neutral
Buy
1627
0.25
DIPLOMA
651.00
435.00
661.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1290
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
279.30
200.00
280.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
862
0.98
ESSENTRA PLC
746.50
508.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1238
1.14
G4S
256.30
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
897
0.47
HAYS
118.00
75.20
118.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
388
1.03
HOMESERVE
259.80
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
906
0.89
INTERSERVE
573.00
349.10
591.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3030
1.25
INTERTEK GROUP
3354.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4331
0.80
49.25
32.75
51.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
232
1.10
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
181
0.57
MENZIES (JOHN)
799.00
573.00
809.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2014
1.41
500.00
346.40
502.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
783
1.36
MITIE GROUP
295.90
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1004
0.52
OFFICE2OFFICE
45.50
33.75
139.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
636
0.31
1077.00
741.00
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1792
0.75
PREMIER FARNELL
219.60
165.50
238.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
538
1.41
REGUS
190.60
96.00
193.40
Sell
Sell
72
1.38
RENTOKIL INITIAL
108.80
83.00
111.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
447
1.26
PAYPOINT
REXAM
484.30
432.56
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1756
0.84
RICARDO
567.00
349.63
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1580
0.90
ROBERT WALTERS
335.00
191.00
335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
924
1.15
RPC GROUP
460.80
378.00
477.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1594
0.81
RPS GROUP
274.60
195.50
274.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
885
1.51
SERCO GROUP
553.00
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2185
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
93.00
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
357
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
65.00
29.50
65.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.18
200.50
92.25
206.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
517
0.65
67.50
40.50
70.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
314
0.90
VP
490.00
313.00
499.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2210
0.79
WYG
110.00
50.25
110.00
Sell
Strong Buy
186
0.82
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 October 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
347.50
212.50
348.90
Neutral
Buy
Target
427
40.89
34.31
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
79
0.67
717.50
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
253
0.53
0.89
90.00
68.25
91.50
Neutral
Buy
118
1.20
1268.00
830.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
794
0.05
218.00
154.45
218.50
Neutral
Sell
121
0.51
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
295.90
195.70
326.00
Neutral
Sell
220
492.00
350.00
520.00
Neutral
Buy
557
1.06
CLARKSON
2270.00
1150.00
2270.00
Strong Sell
Sell
1251
0.86
EASYJET
1318.00
594.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
841
0.77
122.00
92.00
198.94
Neutral
Strong Buy
266
0.88
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1077.00
748.00
1148.00
Neutral
Sell
783
0.72
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1689.00
1220.00
1689.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2853
0.97
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.22
NATIONAL EXPRESS
258.90
164.50
274.90
Neutral
Sell
242
1.39
NORTHGATE
439.00
243.25
439.00
Neutral
Sell
347
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
331.90
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
455
0.97
WINCANTON
102.50
43.75
105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
271
0.95
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
368.10
310.80
402.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
564
0.50
NATIONAL GRID
731.00
682.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
964
0.45
PENNON GROUP
696.00
598.00
734.50
Neutral
Sell
618
0.63
SSE
1469.00
1364.00
1676.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2240
0.40
SEVERN TRENT
1774.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1481
0.37
700.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
745
0.49
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
02 October 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
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