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EN618/401 Energy Systems Modelling and Analysis ASSIGNMENT #1 Due date:16/8/13

1. Y(KWh sales) X(household Income) Z(Price of Oil)

40 100 36 45 200 33 50 300 37 65 400 37 70 500 34 70 600 32 80 700 36 (a) Use linear regression analysis to develop a linear equation which gives KWh sales in terms of household income and price of oil. (b) Compute t-statistic for each variable. From the t-statistic compute approximate % confidence that the variable is an explanatory (or driver) variable. (c) Also, calculate R2 . For calculating % confidence, t-statistics table from wikipedia can be used.(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student's_t-distribution). Use 2-sided values. 2. X Y

5 28.1390 7 51.6911 12 84.5192 14 160.8388 19 381.8770 (a) Use linear as well as quadratic regression for the above data (Y as function of X). (b) Also, find R2 values in both cases. (c) Plot data, and both regression lies on same graph. 3. X Y

0.0 2.64 1.0 1.24 3.0 0.18 4.0 0.15 5.0 0.04 (a)Using non linear regression of the following form,

find betas for the above data. Carry out only 2 iterations of Newtons method for finding betas with an initial guess of , . You can use any software for inverting matrices. (b) Plot the data and regression line.

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