MAFIA XVI: ADVANCED LYNCH MODEL

Day 3
A model on a appropriate lynch target for day 3, in Mafia XVI. Before we have been blessed only with plans, but it is time we evolve unto models.

Written by Kluckmuck Hosted by`0verflow kluckmucki@gmail.com Sweden Gothenburg 10/1/2013

Who to lynch?
Nolifer is an excellent lynch today. The chance of scum is high, and if he flips scum Wololo is most likely scum as well! 1 There is already support from a handful of players, all who you know to well, Puttepingvin, Auora and Somethingodd. 2 Lynching Nolifer might solve important issues: Is there a beast horde? Is Somethingodd telling the truth, or is it all an elaborate lie? Should have made a plan instead of a model?

Cops nightaction
Choose a target whose alignment you are uncertain of. 1. If Nolifer is beasthorde a. Scout targets you think can be scum, but not beasthorde 2. If nolifer is beasthorde and Ophelia a. Scout targets you think are scum 3. If nolifer is legion a. Scout targets who pushed a lynch on him

http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showthread.php?517263-Mafia-XVI-Vive-lar%E9volution!&p=15917378&viewfull=1#post15917378
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj410uJLW_XYdHBCVWtsd1dweGkydm1IUmdRRDdjRnc&usp=sha ring#gid=2

Doctors nightaction
Flip a coin between Bangatron and a second target. The second the target should be chosen based on nolifers death. 1. Nolifer is Beasthorde a. Protect someone who forced a lynch onto him 2. Nolifer is Legion a. Protect someone who defended him 3. If these three does not feel like attractive targets to our doctor, saving our bombardier might be a wise choice

Empath nightaction
1. If Nolifer is Hellbourne, there might not be two factions. Use your skill on potential scum. 2. If Nolifer is Beasthorde, it is still beneficial to target someone who you believe to be scum. Only one side will be able to kill you. 3. Or just target someone you want to confirm, but isnt likely to die.