Professional Documents
Culture Documents
np
Date:2065/4/15
Engineering Economics:
Recommended Books:
E.P. Degrama, W.G Sullivan and J.A Bostadel
N.N Borish and S. Kaplan Economic analysis for Engineering
and Managerial Decision making.
Gerald J. Thuesen, W.J Fabrycky
Mannuals (TU pulchok and kirah Thapa)
Introduction:
Engineering: Engineering is not a science but an application of
science. It is an art composed of skill and ingenuity in adopting
knowledge to the use of huminity. Engineering activities of
analysis and design are not an end in themselves. They are means
for satisfying human wants. Modern Civilization depends to a
large degree upon engineering. Most products and services used to
facilitate work, communication, transportation and national
defence and to furnish sustenance , shelter and health are directly
or indirectly a result of engineering activities.
Economic enviromnet
Production
Construction
Want
Satisfaction
Acquisition phase
Product use/
Construction
Design
Utilization phase
for it. Utility and value are closely related. The utility that an
object has for a person is the satisfaction he or she derives from it.
Cost/Price: The term cost and price are often use together. The
cost of a product or service is the total of resources , direct and
indirect , required to produce it. The price is the value of good or
service in the market place. In general price is equal to cost plus
profit. Two class of goods are recognized by economist: consumer
goods and producer goods . Consumer goods are the goods and
services that directly satisfy human wants. Examples are consumer
goods are T.V sets, house, shoes, book. Producer goods are the
goods or services the indirect as part of production or construction
process. Example: bulldozer, machine tools, raw material.
J
k
Variable cost
Date:2065/4/22
Annuity: An amount of money payable to a beneficiary at regular
interval for a prescribed period of time out ofa find reserved for
that purpose.
- A series of equal payments occurring at regular periods of time.
L
Fixed cost
Demand (volume)
Figure:
Assets: Capital owned by a company (cash, receivable, equipment
building, land etc.)
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4
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1 2 3 4 5 6=n
1 2 3 4 5 6=n
5
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Date:2065/4/24
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Solution:
Total annual direct Labour hours = 250000 hrs.
Labour hours needed for 100 racquets = 200
hrs Therefore, Total production capacity
per year = (25000/200)*100
= 125000 Nos.
Cost breakdown for 125000 Nos. racquet.
Prime costs:
(a) Labour cost: 40* 200/100*125000 = Rs. 10000000
(b) Material cost:
i. Cost of leather = ((50/100)*200*125000)/100
ii. Cost of Gut = (300/100)*50*125000 = Rs. 18750000
iii. Cost of Graphite = (100/100)*200)125000 = Rs.
25000000
Therefore , total direct material cost = Rs. 56250000
Therefore Total cost for production of 125000 badminton
racquet = Labour cost + material cost.
= Rs. 10000000+56250000
= Rs. 66250000
Overhead cost = Rs. 5000000
Therefore, cost for production of 125000 No. of badminton for
racquets
= prime cost +overhead cost
= Rs. 66250000+ Rs. 5000000
= Rs. 71250000
Therefore,
Manufacturing cost of each racquet = Rs. 71250000/125000
= Rs. 570
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I) Variable overhead
Expenditure variance
Direct material
usage variance: = ( Actual quantity
consumed x st. rate) (st. quantity specified x standard
rate)
=
I) Fixed overhead
expenditure variance
Fixed overhead
efficiency variance.
Q.
Calculate:
Process-I
2000
100
300
200
2600
26
Process-II
500
300
100
600
1500
15
Process-III
500
100
200
200
1000
10
Tot.
3000
500
600
1000
5100
51
Year(n) Amount at
Beginning of
Year(P)
1
P
2
P(1+i)
2
P(1+i)
3
.
.
.
.
.
.
n-2
n-1
P(1+i)
n-1
P(1+i)
n
Compound amount
At end of year
(A) =(P+i)
P(1+i)
2
P(1+i)
3
P(1+i)
.
.
.
n-1
P(l+i)
n
P(1+i)
Interest=Pni/100
i = R/100
Pi
P(1+i)i
2
P(1+i) i
.
.
.
n-2
P(1+i) i
n-1
P(1+i) i
2. Compound interest:
Therefore, AF = P(1+i)
In functional form , this is written
as F = P(F/P, i, n)
n
The factor (1+i) is known as single payment compound amount
factor.
0
1
F = (Future value)
2 3
P = (Present value)
........
n-2 n-1
We know,
n
F = p(1+i)
n
-n
Therefore, P = F/(1+i) = F(1+i)
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n-2 n-1
In functional form,
P= F ( p/F, i, n)
-n
The factor (1+i) is known as single payment present worth factor
and is designated as (p/F, i, n)
C. Equal-payment, series compound amount factor (F/n, i, n)
Date: 2065/5/2
d. Equal payment series sinking fund factor [ A/F, i, n]
A = F.
i
(1 + i )n 1
In general form;
A = F ( A/F, i, n )
Cash flow
F
The resulting
1
n-1
(1 + i) 1
n
[A/F, i, n]
Figure:
We know that A = F.
factor
..(i)
(1 + i)
i
1
-A
F = A{(1+i) -1}
Fi= A (1+i)
(1 + i) n
i(1 + i)
= A ( F/A, i% , n)
A=p
(1
+ i) n
is known as equal
(1 + i) 1
i(1 + i) n
n
(1 + i) 1
payment
series
Therefore P = A
i(1 + i)
n
The resulting factor (1 + i) 1
i(1 + i)
n
Hence , the man has to deposit Rs 13800 each year in the saving
account
# (2) If a women deposits Rs. 1500 at the end of each year for 10
continuous years, how much money is accumulated at the end of 10
years ? i = 10% compounded annually.
# (1) A man wants to have Rs 200000 for the studies of his son
after a period of 10 yrs. How much does he has to deposit each
year in a saving account that earns 8% per year?
Solution:
Solution:
Given, No. of year, (n) = 10 yrs
Interest rate, i = 10% = 0.1
Annuity, A = Rs. 1500
Rs. 200000
0 1
10
10
i = 8%
A
i = 10%
A A A
A=Rs. 1500
We know that , A = F
Sinking Factor =
(1 + i) n 1
W e know that , F = A.
i
Equal pay ment series com pound am ount factor =
(1 + i) n 1
i
10
i
(1 + i )n 1
10
n
(1 + i) 1
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A A A A A A A
P= Rs. 100000
1
i = 10% 1 2 3 4 6 6 7 8
8
i = 10%
i = 10% = 0.10
n = 8 yrs
P = Rs. 100000
A=?
We know that
i = 10% n
= 8 years
A = Rs. 2000
P=?
We know that, P = A .
Present worth factor =
i(1 + i)
(1 + i) n 1
i( 1 + i)
A = P (1 + i )n n 1
(1 + i) n 1
n
i(1 + i)
8
or, (p/A, i, n)
-k
-n
r
i=1
Date: 2065/5/4
3.3 Nominal and effective Interest rates:
The basic annual rate of interest is know as nominal interest rate
denoted by r .
The actual or exact rate of interest earned on the principal during
one year is known as effective interest rate denoted by i.
Relationship between nominal interest and effective interest rate
is given by :
+
m
0.18 52
i=1
12
52
m
0.10 26
i=1
52
m
0.13 24
+
12
12
i=1
i=1
i=1
m
0.12 12
i=1
m
0.14
r
i=1
r
i=1
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e = (1+i)
r
i = e -1
Date: 2065/5/13
3.4 Continuous Compounding and continuous compounding
formula:
Continuous compounding assumes that cash flows occur at
discrete intervals but the compounding is
continuous throughout
the intervals.
a) Single payment compound amount factor for annual
compounding.
n
F = P(1+r)
For semi-annual compounding
2n
F = p(1+1/r)
For monthly compounding
12n
F = p(1 + r/12)
In general , if there are m compounding periods per year.
mn
F = p(1+r/m)
Date: 2065/5/13
mn
(1 + i) 1
We know for discrete compounding P = A
r
= p* [lim m { ( 1+r/m) } ]
m/r
(1+r/m) = e = 2.7182
But, lim m
rn
F = pe
r.n
r.n
For n years the compound amount factor will be e . Since e for
n
to (1+i) for discrete
continuous compounding corresponding
compounding.
i(1 + i)
As we have, e =1+i, i = e -1
e
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r.n
(e
r.n
1)e
r.n
r.n
1)e
(e
A=P
1)e
r.n
r.n
(e
r.n
1)e
r.n
(1
+ i) n1 1
.....
4
(n-2) (n-1) n
(1 + i)
+ G (1
+ i) n2 1
i
i
3
0
0
A
A
A
.
.
.
A
A
1 2
Annual
series
+ ....... + G
(1 + i)
n1
n2
2
1
+ (1 + i) + .......... + (1 + i) + (1 + i) (n i)]
= G [(1 + i)
i
= G [(1 + i)n1 + (1 + i)n2 + .......... + (1 + i)2 + (1 + i)1 +1] nG
i
i
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series
G (1 + i) 1
nG
G = $1000
n=4
i = 15%
1
We know that A = F
(1 + i)
G
1
+ i) 1
n
(1
G
i
nG
1
(1 + i) 1
nG
i
2
(1 + i)
+1
4
i=15%
i
n2
i (1 + i)
Therefore, A =
1
G
$1000
n
(1 + i)
Po = ?
(1 + i) 1
n
= $1000
i(1 + i)
Or , P = G i
1
= $1000
(1 + i) n 1
2n
i (1 + i)
4
(1 + 0.15) 1 4 0.15
2
0.15 (1 + 0.15)
= $1000*(3.79)
=$3790
(b) The annual equipment can be calculated from
A = G [A/G, 15%, 4]
(1 + i)
P=G
(i + 1) 1 ni
(1 + i) 1
1(1 + i)
n
1
n
=G 2
n
n
i(1 + i)
i (1 + i)
(1
$3000
$2000
+ i) 1 ni
= G[
2n
i (1 + i)
(1 + i) 1
= $1000
Date: 2065/5/25
0.15 (1 + 0.15) 1
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4
Cash flow/$
1
2
3
4
-5000
-6000
-7000
cash flows($)
-8000
-7000
-6000
-5000
$5000
$6000
$7000
PoT = ?
$7000
i=15%
$5000 $5000
$5000
PoT= ?
$500
0
$6000
$5000
$8000
1
4
i=15%
PoA = ?
$8000
PoA = ?
$1000
PoG = ?
$1000
$1000
$3000
$2000
$3000
i=15%
PoA = ?
=A
(1 + i) 1
n
(1 + i) 1 ni
+ G
i (1 + i)
i(1 + i)
4
4
(1 + 0.15) 1
(1 + 0.15) 1 4 0.15
= -$5000
+ &1000
2
4
0.15(1 + 0.15)4
0.15 (1 + 0.15)
= -&5000(2.8550)-$1000(3.74)
= -$14275 - $3790 = -$18065
(1 + i) 1
= -A
(1 + i) 1 ni
+G
n
2
n
i (1 + i)
i(1 + i)
4n
2
(1 + 0.05) 1
(1 + 0.15) 1 4 * 0.15
=$8000
4 + $1000
2
4
0.15(1 + 0.15)
0.15 (1 + 0.15)
= -$19050
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# (5) The first investment cash for a projects is Rs 500000. The net
annual revenue from the end of first years onwards are 3,00, 000,
2,50,000, 2,00,000, 1,50,000 and so on i.e decreasing by an
amount of Rs 50,000 each year. Find out the FW of this cash flows
at the end of 5 years. i = 5%.
= -p(1+i ) + A
(1 + i)
(1 + 0.01)
Rs300000
0.01
nG
$5,00000(1+0.01)
5
Solution:
(1 + i) 1
1 G
0.01
0.10
0.10
i=10%
1
(6) What is the efficient interest rate if the nominal rate is 9% per
year, a 365 day year is used and the compounding period is (a)
yearly (b) quarterly (c) daily (d) hourly
Solution:
Rs500000
Equal to (=)
0
5
i=10%
Rs 500000
R = 9% , i = ?
(a) When the compounding period is yearly
m
i = (1+r/m) + 1
1
= (1 +0.09/1) 1
= 0.09
=9%
FW1 = ?
+
A = 30000
FW2 = ?
i=10%
1
0
2
1
3
2
4
3
5
4
5
i=10%
i = (1+r/m) -1
50000
365
= ( 1+ 0.09/365) 1
(d) when compounding period
m
hourly i = (1+r/m) -1
100000
150000
200000
FW3 = ?
20
8760
= ( 1+0.09/8760)
-1
is
will earn 10% per year or more on all invested capital. Show
whether this is desirable investment by using the PW method.
Date: 2065/6/3
Figure:
4.
$3000 (1 + 0.01)
1
0.01(1 + 0.10)5
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Date: 2065/6/10
Figure:
AW(%) = R-E-CR
= $5310 - $3000 [ $1000(A/P, 10%, 5) - $2000(A/F,10%,
5)
=
5310
-$
3000
Rk
(p/F, i%, k ) =
0 Ek (p/F, i, k) by using present worth
formulation.
For a single alternative , IRR is not positive unless both receipts
and expenses are present in the cash flow pattern and the sum of
receipts exceeds the sum of all cash outflows cash flow pattern and
the sum of receipts exceeds the sum of all cash outflows.
th
Rk = net receipts for k year.
th
Ek = net expenses including investment for the k
year. N = project life.
Once i% is calculated it is compared with MARR. If i%
MARR , the alternative is
acceptable,
Ek(P/F, i%, k ) = 0
otherwise not.
5
$1000 (1 + 0.01) 0.10 -$
5
(1 + 0.10) 1
5
2000 $1000 (1 + 0.01) 0.10
5
(1 + 0.10) 1
= -$5310-$3000-[$2638-$32800]
=0
The project is shown to be marginally acceptable.
4.2 Future Worth method: In this method all cash inflow and
outflow are compounded forward to a reference point in the time
Alternative form
N
22
Rk (p/F, i%, k) -
formulation.
Date: 2065/6/13
10,0000
5000 5000
5000
5000
5000
P(1+i)
P (1+i)
(R1-E1)
(R2-E2)
(1+i)
(R3-E3)
(Rk-Ek)
(RN-EN)
0
1
kN
PW
1
5%
3 4 5
e
10% 15%
C
$1262
i%
10%
20%
25%
PW
-$25000+$8000(3.7908)+$5000(0.6209)= $830.90
-$25000+$8000(2.9908)+$5000(0.4019)= $934.30
-$25000+$8000(2.6893)+($50000.3277)= -$1847.10
By interpolation :
i% = 20% + [$934.30/($93430+ $1897.10)]. (25% - 20%)
= 20% + 1.7%
= 21.7%
For exact value of i%
i = 21.577% i.e p.w = 0
IRR = 21.577% > MARR
This investment is a good one .
4.4 Drawbacks of IRR method:
a. The IRR method is based on assumption that recovered
fund, if not consumed in each time period are reinvest at i%
rather than at MARR. This is not always practical.
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Date: 2065/7/22
# When E=15% and MARR is 20% per year determine whether
the project whose cash flow diagram appears below is acceptable.
Here;
{$1000+$5000(1+0.15)-1}(1+i)6 = ($6000-$1000)(F/A ,E%,
5) Or, 14347.83(1+i)6 = $5000[{ (1+0.15)5-1}/0.15]
Or 14347.83(1+i)6 = 33711.90
i = 14.2 < 20 ( so project is not acceptable)
4.5 Minimum Attractive Rate of Return method: (MARR)
The minimum attractive rate of return is usually is a policy
issue resolved by top management of an organization in view of
numerous consideration. This consideration are as follows:
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-450,000 -42500
202,200
30,000
30,000
200,000
AW = R-E-CR = 0
AW = 30,000 -200,000(A/P,i,3) = 0
3
3
Or , 30,000 200,000 [{(1+i) i}/((1+i) -1)] = 0
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3000000
200000
50000
10
150000
250,0000
5000
8000
Date: 2065/7/27
25000
5. Cost/Benefit analysis:
The objective is to learn how to use the benefit/cost (B/C) ratio
method as a criterion for the selection for the project .
As the name implies, the benefit/cost method involves the
calculation of a ratio of benefits to costs. Whether evaluating a
project in the private sector or in the public sector the time values
of money must be considered to account for the timing of cash
flows (or benefits) occurring after the inception of the project.
Thus B/C ratio is actually a ratio of discounted benefit to
discounted costs.
Any method for formally evaluating project in the public sector
must be consider the worthiness of allocating resources to achieve
social goals. For over 60 yrs , the B/C ratio method has been the
accepted procedure for making go/no- go decisions on independent
projects and for comparing alternative projects in the public sectors
, even though the other methods. i.e PW, AW, IRR etc, will lead to
identical recommendation, assuming all these procedures are
properly applied.
The B/C ratio is defiend as the ratio of the equivalent worth of
benefits to the equivalent worth of costs. The equivalent worth
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14 15
25000
200000
Date: 2065/7/29
5.2 Modified benefit/Cost ratio: The numerator of the modified
B/C ration expresses the equivalent worth of the benefits
minus the equivalent worth of the O&M costs and
denominator includes only the initial investment costs.
Modified B/C ratio with PW = {PW(B) PW(O&M)}/I
(i) Modified B/C ratio with P/W, salvage value included ,
= {PW(B) PW(O&M)}/{I-PW(s)}
Modified B/C ratio with AW = {AW(B) AW(O&M)}/CR
85000
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Variable cost Cv
Fixed costCf
Unit of o/p (x)
Example: 100 HP
Motor A
Purchase cost
125000
74%
Life
10 yrs
Maintenance cost 5000/yrs
Motor B
1,60,000
92%
10 yrs
2500 yrs
Motor B:
CR cost = 160000 (A/p, 15, 10)
10
10
= 160000[(0.15*1.15 )/(1.15 -1)]
= 31880.32
O.P cost = (100*0.746*5x)/0.92 = 405.43x
Tax and insurance cost = 160000*0.015 = 2400
Maintenance cost = 2500
Total annual cost = 31880.32+ 405.43x + 2400+2500
Now , According to given condition,
Annual cost of Motor A = Annual cost of Motor B .
24906.50 + 504x+1875+5000 = 31880.32+405.43x+2400+2500
x = 50.713 51 hrs.
g
Motor A:
CR cost = 125000 ( A/P, 15,10)
10
10
= 125000[ (0.15*1.15 )/(1.15 -1)]
= 24906.50
Operating cost for power: = (100*0.746*5x)/0.75 = 504x
Maintenance cost = 5000/yrs
Tax and insurance cost = 0.015 * 125000 = 1875
Total Annual cost = 24906.50+504x +1875+5000
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AW method:
AWA(10%) = R-E-CR = 69000-390000(A/P,10%,10) =5529.00
Annual
Cost
Motor A
FW method:
FWA(10%) = -390000(F/p,10%,10)+69000(F/A,10%,10) = 88122
Motor B
51
Hrs
Date: 2065/8/4
<6.0> Investment Decision:
<6.1> Comparison of alternative having useful life:
(a) Equivalent worth method: (pw, FW, AW)
(b) Rate of return methods (IRR, ERR)
(a) Equivalent worth methods:
# Study period = 10 yrs.
MARR = 10%
Useful life = 10 yrs
Salvage value = 0
Which alternative should be selected?
Alternative
A
Investment cost
390000
Net annual recipts less expenses 69000
B
920000
167000
PW method:
PWA(10%) = -390000+69000(p/A,10%,10) = 33975
PWB(10%) = -92000+167000(P/A,10%,10) = 106143
PWc(10%) = -660000+133500+(p/A,10%,10) =
160300 Therefore, order of preference is C>B>A
C
660000
133500
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6298
-3271
-9569
5720
-3429
-9143
Date: 2065/8/9
End of period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
A
B
10.6 13
C
9.6
B
-680000
-40000
392000
380000
380000
380000
380000
C
-755000
205000
406000
400000
390000
390000
324000
Figure:
Solution:
For project A:
640000(F/P,i%,6)
=
262000(F/P,20%,5)+290000(F/P,20%,4)+302000(F/P,20%,3)+310
000(F/P,20%,2)+310000(F/P,20%,1)+260000(F/P,20%,0)
D
E
F
19.1 18.3 15.6
iA% = .
For project B:
{
680000+40000(P/F,20%,1)}(F/P,i,6)
=
392000(F/P,20%,4)+380000(F/P,20%,3)+380000(F/p,20%,2)+380
000(F/P,20%,1)+380000
iB = ..
For Project C:
755000(P/F,ic%,6) = 205000(F/P, 20%,5) + 406000(F/P,20%,4) +
400000(F/p,20%,3)+390000(F/p,20%,2)+39000(F/p,20%,1)+3240
00(F/p, 20%, 0)
g
A
-640000
2620000
290000
302000
310000
310000
260000
ic =
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A-B
-40000
-302000
102000
78000
70000
7000
120000
A
ERR on cash flow
28.3%
Is increment is justified yes
C is preferred.
A-C
-115000
-57000
116000
98000
80000
80000
64000
A-B
14.3%
no
A-C
27%
yes
1900
i = 20%
645
3500
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645
645
645
2500
B 1020
5000
The least common multiple of the useful lines of alt A and B is 12.
A
4
B1
12
B2
Solution:
1900
Date: 2065/8/13
# Suppose in the above example the expected period of required
service for A and B is only 6 yrs. MARR = 10%, Which alternative
is more desirable using co-terminated assumption.
10
11 12
645
3500
3500
3500
Using PW method:
PW(10%)A = -3500-3500(P/F,10%,4)-3500(P/F,10%,8)+(1900645) (P/A,10%,12)
= 1028
2500
1020
5000
5000
10
11 12
CW = [X(A/F,i%,K)]
A
0
M
12000
= A h
(1 + i) 1 A
=
n
i(1 + i)
i
th
N
40000
40000
1000
25
Solution:
MARR=15%
M
I
12000
S
0
Annual expenses 2200
Useful life
10
Assume infinite project life
First cost
Replacements:
12000(A/F,15%,10)/0.15
3940
(40000-10,000)(A/F,15%,25)/0.15
Annual expenses
14667
2200/0.15
1000/0.15
Total capitalized worth (cost) 30607
N
40000
940
6667
47607
Date: 2056/8/16
35
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XB
0
0
1
1
Project
XC
0
0
0
1
Project
xA1
Accept none
Accept A
Accept B
Accept C
XA
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
Project
XB
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
XC
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
Accept none
Accept A
Accept B
Accept C
Accept A or B
Accept A or C
Accept B or C
Accept A or C or B
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
xA2
xB1
xB2
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
D contigent on acceptance of c1
4
5
6
7
C.F
Project
B1
B2
C1
C2
D
1
20
12
4
5
6
2
20
12
4
5
6
3
20
12
4
5
6
4
20
12
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
B2
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
C1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
C2
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
16
17
22
24
16
17
22
24
16
171
22
24
6.7
8.9
15.7
..
D
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
Date: 2065/8/20
7.3 Decision tree (Risk tree analysis):
init.cap.
4
0
20
12
-44
-45
-54
-64
Chapter: 7
Project
B1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
16
17
22
24
Date: 2065/8/18
-44
-45
-54
-64
pw(10%)
0
-50
-30
0
13.4
8.0
37
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High
medium
170
0.8
Market
170
Low
0.4 High
0.5 medium
0.1 Low
0.1 High
0.6 medium
0.3
Low
0.1 High
Profit (000)
150
-50
Low success
High
Lalitpur
-250
200
100
-100
150
Lalitpur
200
Mediiumsuccess 3500
0.4
0.4
high success
0.4
Low success
0.2
Bhaktapur
Low
650
50
medium 450 Finish price
Low
2000
0.1
0.2
0.7 medium -50
0.2
Adj.cost (000)
0.4
4500
2000
Mediiumsuccess 3000
high success
150
4000
(2000*0.2)+(0.4*3500)+(450*0.4)-200 = 3400
(2000*0.4)+(3000*0.2)+(4000*0.4) -150 = 2850
250
Profit(000)
2000
3000
4000
The cost of advertising for lalitpur is Rs. 200000 and for Bhaktapur
is Rs. 150000. Find out which market should be targeted by the
firm.
38
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7000
6000
5000
4000
n
3000
10%
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
Date:2065/8/27
8.1 Taxation law in Nepal:
VAT = Value added tax = 13%
8.2 Depreciation rate:
8.3 Recapture depreciation:
8.4 Taxes on normal gain.
8.5 Taxes on capital gain.
Chapter:9
9.0 Demand Analysis and sales forecasting:
Regression Analysis:
This method involves.
- Determining the trend of Consumption by analysis past
consumption statistics.
- Projecting future consumption by extrapolating trend.
Most commonly used relationship is the linear relationship.
39 y = a+bx
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Demand
(y)
13
14
17
18
18
19
20
22
23
22
24
24
25
y= 259
y = 259
y(bar) = 19.92
xy = 1998
x = 819
xy
x2
13
28
51
72
90
114
140
207
220
264
288
325
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
81
100
125
144
169
2
xy = 1998 x = 819
b = (xy n xy )/(x n x 2 )
= 1.018
a = y(bar) bx(bar)
= 19.92 1.018*7
= 12.794
40
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