ANSWER KEY Extra Probability ProblemsChallenging! (OPT ONA!"#st $or $#n!

% &' n a game o$ (o)er* +hat is the (robability that a ,-.ar/ han/ +ill .ontain (a% a straight ($i0e .ar/s in #nbro)en n#meri.al se1#en.e%* (b% $o#r or a )in/* an/ (.% a $#ll ho#se (three .ar/s o$ one 0al#e an/ t+o .ar/s o$ another 0al#e%2 (a% Thin) o$ this one as $ollo+s3 there are &4 (ossible straights sin.e a.es .an .o#nt as the lo+est or highest .ar/ (a.e-thro#gh-$i0e* t+o-thro#gh-six*5''* ten-thro#gha.e%' So* .al.#late the (robability o$ one (arti.#lar straight* an/ then m#lti(ly this (robability by &4 (they6re all e1#ally li)ely%' We .an #se the 7.hoosing $#n.tion here83 < < < < < < x< x< x< x< & & & & & = = '444:;< P(a.e-thro#gh-$i0e straight% 9 ,= ,= x,&x,4 x <; x <> , x < x:x = x& , &4x('444:;<%9 '44:; 4':;? .han.e @OR* alternati0ely* yo# .an thin) abo#t this (roblem in terms o$ (robabilities' Yo# .an m#lti(ly the (robabilities o$ getting3 a.e on the $irst /ra+ (<A,=%* t+o on the se.on/ /ra+ (<A,&%* three on the thir/ /ra+ (<A,4%* $o#r on the $o#rth /ra+ (<A<;%* $i0e on the $i$th /ra+ (<A<>% as3 P(a.e* =*:*<*,% 9
< < < < < x x x x ,= ,& ,4 <; <>

BCTthis only gi0es yo# the (robability o$ this one (arti.#lar se1#en.e o$ /ra+ing the .ar/s' Yo# +o#l/ also get a straight i$ yo# /re+ these .ar/s in any other or/er' Dor exam(le* the (robability o$ /ra+ing $i0e* then $o#r* then three* then t+o* then a.e is also3 P(,*<*:*=*a.e% 9
< < < < < x x x x ,= ,& ,4 <; <>

Eo+ many s#.h se1#en.es are there2 There are ,! +ays (, +ays to arrange , /istin.t .ar/s% yo# .o#l/ /ra+ these $i0e .ar/s' P(a.e-thro#gh-$i0e straight% 9 &4x('444:;<%9 '44:; 4':;? .han.e
< < < < < x x x x x,! = '444:;< ,= ,& ,4 <; <>

ANSWER KEY Note3 yo# may also see the (robability o$ a straight .al.#late/ as < < < < < < & & & & & &4 x( % ,= , n this .ase* the (robability o$ a straight flush (a straight +here all the .ar/s are o$ the same s#it% has been s#btra.te/ $rom the (robability o$ a straight* sin.e these are .onsi/ere/ /istin.t han/s' The $o#r re(resents that there are only <4 straight $l#shes (ossible (< s#its $or ea.h o$ the ten se1#en.es%' (b% There are &: /istin.t sets o$ $o#r-o$-a-)in/ (all the a.es* all the )ings* all the 1#eens* et.'%' So* .al.#late the (robability o$ a (arti.#lar $o#r-o$-a-)in/ (say $o#r )ings% an/ then m#lti(ly by &:' There are <> +ays to get $o#r )ings in a han/ o$ $i0e .ar/s3 yo# ha0e to get all $o#r )ings* b#t yo#r $i$th .ar/ .an be any o$ the remaining <> .ar/s' P($o#r-o$-a-)in/%9 < <> &:x <> &: x <> &:x&=4 < & &: x = = = = '444=< or ' ,= x,&x,4 x <; x <> ,= x,&x,4 x <; ,= ,= , x < x: x = x& , , 4=<? .han.e (.% This is similar to the (roblem that yo# ha/ $or home+or)* +here as)e/ yo# to .al.#late a $#ll ho#se o$ )ings an/ a.es' The (robability o$ any (arti.#lar $#ll ho#se (as .al.#late/ in yo#r home+or)% +as3 < < : = P(: )ings an/ =a.es% = ,= , B#t ho+ many /istin.t $#ll ho#ses are there2 There are F&: .hoose =6 (ossible (airs (a.es*)ingsG a.es* t+osG a.es* threesG )ings* t+os* et.'% an/ $or ea.h (air* there are t+o (ossible arrangements3 yo# .o#l/ ha0e : )ings an/ = a.es or = a.es an/ : )ings' There$ore* the n#mber o$ /istin.t $#ll ho#ses is3
&: x&= &: = x = = x = &: x&= /istin.t $#ll ho#ses = =

ANSWER KEY < < &:x&= x < xH : = = '44&<< or 4'&<? P($#ll ho#se% 9 &:x&= x ,= = ,= x,&x,4 x <; x <> , x < x: x = x& , .han.e So* a $o#r-o$-a-)in/ beats a $#ll ho#se* +hi.h beats a straight (tho#gh straight $l#sh beats them all!% =' $ a $i0e-letter +or/ is $orme/ at ran/om (meaning that all se1#en.es o$ $i0e letters are e1#ally li)ely%* +hat is the (robability that no letter o..#rs more than on.e2 Ienominator (+ith re(la.ement* sin.e letters .an re(eat%3 =H , N#merator (+itho#t re(la.ement* sin.e no letters .an re(eat%3
=H! = =H x =, x =< x =: x == (=H ,%!

!i)e the birth/ay (roblem* sin.e the /enominator has to be .al.#late/ .onsi/ering or/er* so /oes the n#merator (there$ore* #se (erm#tations rather than .hoosing%'
=H! P(no letter re(eats% 9 (=H ,%! =H x =, x =< x =:x == .han.e = = HH? , , =H =H

:' An ele0ator .ontaining $i0e (eo(le .an sto( at any o$ se0en $loors' What is the (robability that no t+o (eo(le get o$$ at the same $loor2 Ass#me that the o..#(ants a.t in/e(en/ently an/ that all $loors are e1#ally li)ely $or ea.h o..#(ant' Same logi. as (roblem (=%3 Ienominator (+ith re(la.ement* sin.e e0eryone .o#l/ get o$$ at the same $loor%3 J , N#merator (+itho#t re(la.ement%3 J xH x, x < x: P(no t+o (eo(le on the same $loor% 9
J x H x , x < x: = &,? .han.e J,

<' A mon)ey at a ty(e+riter ty(es ea.h o$ the =H letters o$ the al(habet exa.tly on.e* the or/er being ran/om' What is the (robability that the +or/ Eamlet a((ears some+here in the string o$ letters2

ANSWER KEY Eamlet (a H-letter string% .o#l/ a((ear in =& /i$$erent s(ots in the =H-letter string (e'g'* s(ot &3 Eamlet.xs5G s(ot =3 .Eamlet.)s/5G s(ot :3 .)Eamlet/s$/5G et.' #( to3 s(ot =&3 1+ry#io(s/$gh")Kx.0bnEamlet The remaining =4 letters .an be arrange/ in any se1#en.e (there are =4! +ays to arrange the other =4 letters in the remaining =4 s(ots%' There$ore* there are =&x=4! 9 =&! +ays to get Eamlet' There are =H letters to $ill =H s(ots* so there are =H! total arrangements o$ the letters' P(getting Eamlet% 9
=&! & = = '444444&=H 0ery small! =H! =H x =, x =< x =: x ==

,' S#((ose that the (robability o$ li0ing to be ol/er than J4 is 4'H an/ the (robability o$ li0ing to be ol/er than >4 is 4'=' $ a (erson rea.hes her J4th birth/ay* +hat is the (robability that she +ill .elebrate her >4th2 P(LJ4 years% 9 4'H4 P(L>4 years% 94'=4 Cse Bayes6 R#le3 P(L>4ALJ4% 9
P (> J4 A > >4% @ P( > >4% &44? @ =4? = = ::? P (> J4% H4?

H' A hat .ontains a n#mber o$ .ar/s* +ith :4? +hite on both si/es* ,4? bla.) on one si/e an/ +hite on the other* =4? bla.) on both si/es' The .ar/s are mixe/ #(* then a single .ar/ is /ra+n at ran/om an/ (la.e/ on the table' $ the to( si/e is bla.)* +hat is the .han.e that the other si/e is +hite2 ',4
P ( Mixed A Black % =

',4

P ( Black A Mixed % P( Mixed % = ,,'H? P ( Black %

' , (',%M'= (&%