Afghanistan-India & the World

Foreign policy of a country defines the future of a country to a greater extend as it decides two crucial issues namely 1.National security 2.Economic Integration Background How did Afghanistan come to this condition? Phase 1: British Empire(India) s! Emirate of Afghanistan Afghanistan has een called the !gra e"ard of Empires" as no single power was a le to rein it completely in the past ecause its resisti#e tri es this holds true e#en now Afghanistan with free foreign policy as a nation was orn as a result of $hird Anglo% Afghan &ar'1(1() $hird Anglo%Afghan &ar'1(1()* +ritish Empire'India) #s. Emirate of Afghanistan Wh" #ar? +ritain was worried a out ,ussian influence on Afghanistan which would lead to in#asion on India +ritain had een trying to influence Afghan in its fa#our through large su sidy to its ruler ut ore less fruit as Afghan played the side which paid more which had earlier resulted into -econd Afghan war'1./.01..1) effecti#ely ena led control o#er Afghanistan till the death of Ha i ullah Amanullah2 Ha i ullah third son too3 o#er amid power struggle in the 3ingdom sensing he cannot retain power if he didn4t placate the conser#ati#es 2 decided to go on war as the situation in +ritish India was sensiti#e post 5allianwala +agh 6assacre'1(1().Amanullah in#aded +ritish India

$esult% +ritish had a tactical #ictory pushing ac3 Afghanistan army +ut loss from the Indian side was high2 oth sides had their gains Amanuallah managed to sta#e off the domestic crisis and gained free foreign policy emerged as a independent state y the &reat" of $a#alpindi(1'1') +ritain political gain remained in Afghanistan4s acceptance of (urrand line

(urrand line is a contentious issue etween Afghanistan and 7a3istan now

Phase ):*old #ar Era: &he +o iet inter ention 7ost Afghanistan independence the nota le ruler of Afghanistan was 8ing 6ohammad 9ahir -hah2 remem ered for his modern outloo3 esta lished National legislature : impro#ing the status of &oman He uilt greater ties with the -o#iet ;nion arms purchases2 infra pro<ects = the height of >old war2 this ecame eye sore for ;-A which esta lished tie with 9ahir through ;-AI? Insta ility crept in when communist factions and Islamic factions of Afghan fighting each other 9ahir was o#erthrown y his cousin 6ohammad daoud India was the only country to recogni@e the so#iet ac3ed ?emocratic ,epu lic of Afghanistan in 1(.1s. $his pushed ac3 Afghanistan to pre% modern state as Islamic forces were against any change from traditional society -o#iet ;nion deployed troops to pre#ent further control of militias 3nown as 6u<ahedin $he ;-A assisted the 6u<ahedin in the war against -o#iet union $he anti war sentiments in -o#iet union : new leader in power 6i3ail Aor ache# decided to pull out which was decided ased on the ,ene a Accords'1(..) $he Aene#a accords led to withdraw on oth sidesB;-A it considered a decisi#e #ictory o#er -o#iet ;nion 6assi#e reduction in aids followed with the fall of -o#iet ;nion thus lea#ing a wea3 go#ernment under Na<i ullah Ahamed@ei

Phase -: $ise of &ali.an: $he wea3 go#ernment of Na<i ullah fell and the 6u<ahedins too3 o#er the rule of Afghanistan 6u<ahedins were primarily group of / Islamic organi@ations popularly 3nown as !7eshawar /"

$he fall of go#t lead to in fighting under agreement etween the 7/ ,a ani ecame the 7resident he was the ;N accepted 7resident e#en during the later $ali an regime : India too ac3nowledged him as the 7resident A group of 6u<ahedins disappointed with the infighting etween ,uling 6u<ahedins formed the $ali an mo#ement2 they mo#ed to 7a3istani madrassas ased on the learning there they esta lished the $ali an rule later in Afghanistan $he infighting among the mu<ahidin4s : the ci#il war made them unpopular which lead to rise in popularity of $ali an in Afghanistan $ali an captured Afghanistan at their pea3 almost had control o#er (1C of Afghanistan Dnly E countries recogni@ed them namely 7a3istan2 ;AE2 -audi Ara ia $ali an regime was lead y 6ullah 6ohammad ;mar $ali an regime'-eptem er 1((F%No#em er 2111) ecame #astly unpopular around the world for its treatment of woman2 anning $G2music2dance Al Haeda leader Dsama in laden shifted to Afghanistan from -udan $he ;-A throughout pressured Afghanistan to extradite Dsama +in Iaden for his attac3s on American Em assies throughout the world2 Afghanistan refused ties worsened to low point with the -eptem er 11 Attac3s $he +ush regime decided to o#er throw $ali ans militarily $he ;-A along with NA$D forces launched /peration Enduring 0reedom along with the Northern Alliance $he war ended with top leaders escaping to 7a3istan including 6ohammad ;mar : Dsama +in laden '3illed y ;-AJDperation code named /peration 1eptune +pear)

1orthern Alliance: $he Northern Alliance is primarily a group of 2ulti ethnic opposition group consisting of non 7astuns namely $a<i3s2;@ e3s : Ha@aras . $he $ali ans are primarily 7astuns.7astuns are the largest population in Afghanistan accounting to K2C $he Northern Alliance once a group with infighting <oined forces with America to defeat $ali ans

Phase 3: Post #ar Afghanistan 4ar5ai $egime 7ost war +ush regime argued that the past mista3e of ;-A post -o#iet defeat where ;-A left Afghanistan lead to the rise of terrorist organi@ations in Afghanistan hence the nations must come forward to Nation +uilding of Afghanistan which was accepted y ;N $he +onn Agreement was signed%to recreate the -tate of Afghanistan post American In#asion of Afghanistan +onn agreement called for creation of new constitution formation of Interim Ao#ernment which was headed y Hamid 8ar@ai $his was followed y elections which 8ar@ai won and is in his second term $he ;nited Nations in#ol#es itself in nation uilding through ;nited Nations Assistance 6ission in Afghanistan';NA6A) ;NA6A%in#ol#ed in Afghan Ao#ernance : Nation +uilding 7rocess America has een training the local forces to defend themsel#es post exit ut the current strength of the Afghanistan National security forces is not expected to hold itself against enemy onslaught post exit of western forces

2a6or *onferences held: International *onference on Afghanistan7 Bonn *onference I ()881) Ied to the appointment of Hamid 8ar@ai as leader of Afghan Interim Authority : signing of +onn agreement. $aglineJ &he (ecade of &ransition

International *onference on Afghanistan7 Bonn *onference II ()811) Held a decade after +onn I -hift from ?ecade of $ransition'2111%2111) to ?ecade of $ransformation'211K% 212K) 1A&/ /.6ecti e: Iea#e Afghanistan transferring power to Afghan National -ecurity Forces y 211K 4ar5ai $egime /.6ecti e: >on#ince &estern forces continue partnership of nation uilding of Afghanistan through Foreign Aids till >ountry ready to stand on its own.

7a3istan oycotted the conference thus reducing the scope of conference to some extend >onference mentioned need for reconciliation with insurgents groups to further peace process

Istan.ul Process()811 Istan.ul7)81) 4a.ul) a!k!a 9eart of Asia *onference Focused encouraging co operation etween Afghanistan : its neigh ours 8ey areas of >onfidence +uilding measures'>+6) Education2 student Exchange 7rogrammes'lead mem er Iran) ?isaster 6anagement 'lead mem er 7a3istan : 8a@a3hstan) ?rug traffic3ing 'lead mem er ,ussia : A@er ai<an) $errorism : counter $errorism measures 'lead mem ers ;AE2$ur3ey :Afghanistan) >ham ers of >ommerce : >ommercial Dpportunities 'lead mem er India)

1A&/ *hicago *onference( )81) ) Held in >hicago2 meeting etween heads of NA$D ?iscussed #arious issues one of them eing Afghanistan policy Endorse exit strategy of Afghan war Iong term support : commitment to Afghanistan 7ower transition to Afghanistan forces 7ledge fund for Afghan forces de#elopment

(elhi In estment +ummit on Afghanistan()81)) ADI partnering with >II : Afghanistan organi@ed in#estment summit on Afghanistan

to attract foreign in#estment on Afghanistan Earlier in Istan ul process the confidence uilding measure India was chosen the lead mem er of >ommerce and India followed it up with this summit pro#ing Afghanistan4s importance to India 8ey areas of in#estment eing 6ining2 hydrocar on2 Infrastructure2 Healthcare : $elecom

&ok"a *onference ()81)) $o3ya conference relates to series of conditions set y International >ommunity 8ey conditions eing hold fair elections in 211K Impro#e access to <ustice2 accept International standards on human rights Fight >orruption2$error Financing2money laundering >ounter menance of illicit narcotics drugs through crop eradication and mo#e towards alternati#e forms of Agriculture (2C of non 7harmaceutical Dpium originate from Afghanistan worth LK illion $he donors agreed to donate L1F +illion on acceptance of the a o#e conditions

Phase :: +ituation ; hand and +trategic Importance of Afghanistan &estern approach in sol#ing the Afghan $ali an crisis since Afghan war has een a failure &est is searching for a way to lea#e Afghanistan when the situation is worser than 2111 as the war has ecome unwinna le with the HaMMani : 7a3istani nexus hurting the western forces adly 7lausi le solution = ;- hand &ithdraw y 211K 6aintain a military presence post 211K in some form ,econciliation with the insurgency groups operating from 7a3istan $rain : ,e uild Afghan National -ecurity Forces 'AN-F) -ecurity transition to AN-F y 211K

,econciliation road loc3 as Non 7astuns 6inority ethnic groups oppose peace with $ali an as they fear oppression which in case may lead to a future ci#il war in Afghanistan In case of a ci#il war the situation might tilt towards 7a3istan : HaMMani networ3 which could e detrimental for India4s security interests

India<s Position India has een neutral so far in handling Afghanistan e#en during the $ali an regime India wor3ed with ;N recogni@ed go#ernment of +urhanuddin ,a ani. After the o#erthrow of $ali an regime India continues to wor3 with 8ar@ai Factors that affect India4s strategy are $ali an factor Iac3 of unity etween 8ar@ai : &estern forces ,eduction of &estern troops Impact of 7a3istan4s influence post western forces exit

India expects esta lishment of a modern Islamic state free from $ali ani : 7a3istani influences as the a o#e forces would deny India the space to wor3 in Afghanistan India has so far committed ;- L2 +illion for reconstruction is Afghanistan and cannot turn lind eye towards such a strategically important country as it might affect the power alance in Asia

India<s #ork in Afghanistan so far: India : Afghanistan ha#e so far signed -trategic 7artnership Agreement during 8ar@ai4s #isit to India India is the fifth +ilateral largest donor to Afghanistan India4s assistance to Afghanistan can e categori@ed as E types Humanitarian Assistance'e.g. food aid ) Infrastructure 7ro<ects >apacity +uilding measures

2a6or Infra pro6ects ." India >onstruction of 21. 3m road from 9aran< to ?elaram to facilitate mo#ement of goods and ser#ices from Afghanistan to the Iranian order and2 onward2 to the >hah ahar 7ort '-trategic Importance for India earlier explained y 6runal) >onstruction of the Afghan 7arliament >onstruction and commissioning of -alma ?am power pro<ect 'K2 6&) in Herat pro#ince ,estoration of telecommunication infrastructure in 11 pro#inces

-ourceJ httpJNNK. p. logspot.comN%&5u;-2w@1>EN$ p+g(8c% OINAAAAAAAAI%INI7Hs(fPf2f3NsK11NIndiaAfghanistan.<pg Education and capacit" de elopment ,econstruction of Ha i ia -chool2 8a ul. O11 annual long%term uni#ersity scholarships sponsored y the Indian >ouncil for >ultural ,elations for under%graduate and postgraduate studies for Afghan students in India.

Indian Interests in Afghanistan:

India4s Interest in Afghanistan is not <ust in maintaining the alance towards 7a3istan it also goes in the direction of economic purposes of trade on the long run A sta le Afghanistan would impro#e intercontinental trade for India through road +y 211O2 India4s trade with Europe2 >I-'>ommonwealth of Independent states) countries 2Iran2 Afghanistan and 7a3istan would e a out LO11 illion annually. If 21 per cent of this trade were to e conducted through road2 L111 illion of Indian trade would e passing through 7a3istan2 Afghanistan and the >entral Asian region. $his will greatly help North Indian states in the region of trade A sta le Afghanistan would ena le India to implement >onnect >entral Asia 7olicy of India'explained earlier y 6runal) $A7I pipeline could e implemented as this could fulfill India4s energy needs'$A7I pipeline explained in 6runal.org ) India plans to push International North%-outh $ransport >orridor 'IN-$>) which a sta le Afghanistan can play a role through ?elaram09aran< Highway'Afghanistan) #ia the >ha ahar 7ort 'Iran) ypassing 7a3istan in the process. +oth ?elaram09aran< Highway'Afghanistan) and reach the >ha ahar 7ort 'Iran) are funded y India

International 1orth-+outh &ransport *orridor (I1+&*): IN-$> is a 6ultimodal networ3 from India passing through Iran and thus reaching >entral Asia and Europe $he route starts with 6um ai'India) 0+andar A as 7ort'Iran) 06oscow',ussia) 0 Northern Europe IN-$> initiated y India2,ussia2Iran now <oined y 11 more countries A@er ai<a2Armenia28a@a3hstan28yrgy@stan2$a<i3istan2$ur3ey2;3raine2+elarus2Dman2 -yria2+ulgaria

-ourceJ$he Hindu /ther *ountries: Pakistan: 7a3istan plays a crucial role Afghanistan4s future 7a3istan4s o <ecti#es are diametrically opposite to that of India 7a3istan doesn4t want Afghanistan to align with India and wants it to pro#ide -trategic depth against India 7a3istan has een gi#ing safe ha#en for insurgent groups to gain le#erage in Afghanistan. 7a3istan also wants to train the AN-F $he Afghanistan 7a3istan relations ha#e impro#ed since -harif too3 charge : high le#el en#oy 2foreign policy ad#isor -arta< A@i@ was send to Afghanistan. 8ar@ai accepted 7a3istan in#itation to 7a3istan also attended -harif4s sworning as 76 Afghanistan has order issues with regard to ;N recogni@ed ?urrand line which Afghanistan doesn4t accept Afghanistan 7a3istan $ransit $rade Agreement 'A7$$A) was signed etween the two nations pro#ides easier transportation #ia 7a3istan of Afghan products

 Iran:

A7$$A allows dropping of Afghanistan goods to India ut doesn4t ta3ing ac3 Indian goods ac3 to Afghanistan

Iran see3s to pre#ent ;-A gain too much le#erage in Afghanistan as it might help ;-A to attac3 Iran on the long run Iran also wants to protect the -hia population in Afghanistan Iran is also seen to arm $ali an against ;-A

*entral Asian +tates: *hina: >hina has played a limited role in Afghanistan23eeping an eye on Islamic uprisings which could affect ;ighur community in >hina >hina4s interest has een primarily on in#estment in minerals and other in#estment oriented acti#ities also pro#ide some le#erage for its ally 7a3istan >entral Asian -tates are seen to pro#ide 3ey assistance to ;-A to fly in troops to the region $he ;-A proposed New -il3 ,oad'N-,) see3s to ring Afghanistan crossroads etween >entral : -outh Asia were >entral Asia states play a pi#otal role.

&he 0uture Ahead +tatus of 0orce Agreement=+trategic Partnership: $he ;-A signed strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan yet it is different from the -tatus of Force Agreement '-oFA) -tatus of Force Agreement '-oFA) was earlier signed etween ;-A : IraM to retain its forces there. $he current partnership agreement stops short of such conditions as it claims after the signing of the strategic partnership agreement the two countries would Qinitiate negotiation on a +ilateral -ecurity Agreement4 $his shows lac3 of consensus etween the two countries which could hamper peace after 211K 2depends on the troops that stay post 211K to understand the followup in Afghanistan

$he future of sta ility in Indian su continent depends to some extend on the le#el troops that is retained in Afghanistan that NA$D troops in Afghanistan are retained

&ali.an /ffice: Dn 5une 1.2 211E2 with ;.-. and Hatari concurrence2 the $ali an formally opened its political office in Hatar2 simultaneously issuing a statement refusing future ties to international terrorist groups Expressing willingness to e#entually transition to Afghan go#ernment%$ali an tal3s. Howe#er2 the $ali an #iolated reported understandings with the ;nited -tates and Hatar y raising a o#e the uilding the flag of the former $ali an regime and calling the facility the office of the !Islamic Emirate" of Afghanistan

*onclusion $he Future of Aeopolitical situation is Indian su continent largely rests on the sta ility in Afghanistan after exit of NA$D forces : how the world handles the $ali ani group and Northern Alliance. +y ,.Aditya +ources: httpJNNwww.mea.go#.inN;ploadsN7u lication?ocsN1/FPindia%and%afghanistan%a%de#elopment% partnership.pdf httpJNNwww.idsa.inNidsacommentsNIranfactorinIndiasAfghan7olicyPsspattanai3P2K1.12 httpJNNwww.idsa.inNstrategicanalysisNEFPKNIndiasAfghan7olicyP-mruti7attanai3 httpJNNwww.theguardian.comNcommentisfreeN211EN<unN2FNnato%tali an%india%pa3istan httpJNNwww.chathamhouse.orgNsitesNdefaultNfilesNpu licN,esearchNAsiaN1.1EppPindiaafghanist an.pdf httpJNNwww.fas.orgNsgpNcrsNrowN,IE1O...pdf httpJNNnews. c.co.u3N2NhiNsouthPasiaN1FO21./.stm

httpJNNwww.ipcs.orgNarticleNpa3istanN onn%ii%from%transition%to%transformation%in% afghanistan%EO2..html httpJNNcarnegieendowment.orgN211EN1KN2FNistan ul%process%ministerial%results%and%prospects% for%futureNg1O<

httpJNNwww.nytimes.comN2112N1ON22NworldNnato%formally%agrees%to%transition%on%afghan% security.html?pagewanted*all:Pr*1 httpJNNwww.idsa.inNidsacommentsN$he?elhiIn#estment-ummitonAfghanistanPgsachde#aP2F 1F12 httpJNNwww.unodc.orgNafghanistanNenNE#entsNto3yo%conference%on%afghanistan.html httpJNNwww.thehindu.comNnewsNnationalNglo al%corridor%will%cut%cargo%transit% timeNarticleEK/K22/.ece +oo3JIndia Qs Neigh ourhood >hallenges in Next two decades y IN-$I$;$E FD, ?EFEN>E -$;?IE- : ANAIR-E-'I?-A)