Manzoor Alam: Sir Fareed’s Lecture on Afghan Peace Process:

1-The Resurgence / Revival of Afghan Taliban:

In 2001 after twin tower attacks, when US launched attacks on Afghanistan:

October 2001 US military intervened in Afghanistan through OEF. Operation Enduring

Freedom (OEF):/ topple down Afghan Taliban Government.

 The (ISAF) was later created by the UN Security Council to train Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF).
 Afghan Taliban and Al Qaida
 1000 were killed.
 1000 were being captured.
 1000 Many more took refuge in hilly belt
 Many more infiltrate in Trible Belt of Baluchistan- Pakistan

2-USA declared victory against Taliban and Al Qaida (2002):

i. That war on terror had been won

ii. But 2004 onward, the revival of Afghan Taliban begins
iii. Military resurgence
iv. Territorial expansion
v. Diplomatic acceptability

2.1-Military Resurgence of Afghan Taliban:

 The world's largest military machine was failed to defeat Afghan Taliban
 1 trillion US Dollars (1 thousand billion US dollars)
 19 years’ war
 1 lac troops (Afghanistan and Iraq – most military forces in their history)
 1 lac troops (Afghanistan and Iraq – most military forces in their
history
 It brought in all the possible military technology in Afghanistan to fight against
Gorilla.
 Drone (most specified - moving object as 80 miles)
 Cobra helicopter (not hit a single cobra helicopter)
 Internationally and militarily established rule.
 Whenever a conventional army / state force fail to defeat a Gorilla, it is supposed to
be a defeat of Conventional army.

2.2-Territorial Expansion:

 Since 2004 onward

 2004 – 2010:
 Afghan Taliban expended its territorial expansion across the Pashtun belt (Rural
Areas) – strong hold in rural Areas.
 Eastern and southern Afghanistan
 Carried out Attacks across the Pashtun belt
 Hideout places (Hilly Ares and Rural Area)
  2010 – 2014:
 Expanded their attacks and hide out places to centers of Pashtun belt.
 Kabul strong presence --- in capital
 Nangahar
 2014 onward
 1st time in history from 2001 onward, expanded attack on non-Pashtun belt
 Expended their presence across non-Pashtun belt.
 The bordering areas:
 Iran
 Uzbekistan
 Turkmenistan
 US justice department report, 2018
 2014 onward --- more than 35% of the attacks made by Afghan Taliban in non-
Pashtun belts

2.3-Diplomatic Acceptability of Afghan Taliban:

 From 2001 till 2008:

 There was not a single country to support negotiation with afghan Taliban.
 Pakistan is the only country to support negotiation with Afghan Taliban.
 Pakistan stance:
 Military solution was not possible.
 US
 NATO
 How Afghan Force could do it.
 Pakistan was criticized:
 US
 Afghanistan
 India
 Secretly supporting Afghan Taliban
 2014 onward the neighboring countries changed their stance towards Afghan Taliban
 They adopted the Pakistan Stance
 Russia
 China
 Iran
 Central Asian Republics
 Do not call Afghan Taliban as Terrorist.
 War is not the solution.
 Table talk is the only solution.

 Release Taliban prisoners

 Power share b/w Afghan Taliban.
 A comprehensive strategy would be adapted to mainstream Afghan Taliban.

2.3.1-US Taliban Doha Deal 2020:

 It made Afghan Taliban certified diplomat entity.US Taliban Doha Deal 2020.
2.3.1.1-The Rise OF ISIS and its implications on Afghanistan and Reign as a whole.

 A Middle Eastern phenomenon.

 Formed in Iraq.
 2014 onward – presence and expanded in Afghanistan.
 ISKP – Islamic state of Khurasan Province.
 It made presence in 12 provinces.
 Target:
 It fights against Afghan Taliban.
 Shia population and Afghan Government.
 ISKP brought a new spell of civil war in Afghanistan.
 It is not only threat to Afghanistan but it became an existential threat to peace and
security to whole region
o Lash Kara Jhangavi / TTP nexus with ISIS
 Became b-team of ISKP
 Threat to Pakistan
 Sectarian terrorism is major threat.
 Carrying out series attacks in Pakistan
 Hazara Community:
 1-Jundullah nexus with ISKP in Iran
 Iran based terrorist organization.
 Tehran had a strong concern behind
 Security threat

 2-ISKP ETIM Nexus in China – Sikiong:

 Security threat to China

 3-ISKP Nexus IMU.

 Threats to Central Asian states
 4-Chechen fighters nexus with ISKP:
 In Russia
 Threat for BRI and CPEC
 Strong concern of neighbors
 Blame that ISIS is supported by US
 Edmond Norcent NSA leaks
 5-ISIS is the nexus of US, UK and Israel
 Russian Authorities
 Iran Authorities
 Hamid Karzai
 There is increasing attack against ISKP by all stakeholders.
 The future of ISKP is bleak in Afghanistan.
2.3.1.2-Intra-Afghan Talks:

 Release prisoners
 Share in government
 What to do with ISKP?
 Afghan Taliban
 Afghan Government
 International troop
 All will continue to fight against ISKP.
 Afghan Taliban only seriously fighting with ISKP.

2.3.1.3-Intra-Afghan Dialogue:

 Key points:
 The release of the prisoners
 There were around 5000 afghan Taliban prisoners with Afghan Govt.
 There were around 1200 prisoners of afghan Govt. with Taliban.
 In the first phase release 100’s of prisoners were released.
 Afterward, Afghan govt. refused to release
 Refused to release those who were involved in killing afghan personals and civilian.
 But in Doha deal US promised to release all prisoners.
 Afghan govt refused to release.
 War was resumed again.
 Again Negotiation
 Doha negotiation
 Afghan Taliban and Govt
 US and Pakistan played a role of facilitator.
 Agreed to release all prisoner .
 Key Taliban leaders
 They were not live in Afghanistan.
 Rather they would live in Qatar.
 [8:27 PM, 1/12/2021] Manzoor Alam: Power share b/w Afghan govt and Afghan
Taliban:
 This is the complicated step in negotiation.
 Could be broadly three heads:
 The govern ship in provinces.
 Taliban had de facto government in 12 provinces.
 Strong presence in 5 more provinces
 They tried to maximize governed ship in 5 provinces.
 Afghan govt id reluctant to give these more share
 Share in federal government
 Minimize share in afghan govt.
 Key ministries:
 Foreign
 Defence
 Finance
 Interior
  Afghan Taliban wants jobs in paramilitary:
 US promised to mainstream Taliban.
 Who will gain the most?
 Afghan Taliban has a bright future in Afghanistan.
 It has emerged as a strongest group.
 There are chances that would get more
 Afghan Gov.is weak.
 Though afghan Taliban strong enough not to be defeated but it is not powerful
enough to control Kabul. So they had to compromise too.
 Afghan govt is weak.
 And now afghan Taliban got diplomatic acceptance.
 Afghan Govt divided
 Ashraf Ghani
 Abdullah Abdullah
 After 2014 and 2019 elections
 US intervened to bring
 Afghan govt has not the financial and military capabilities to defeat Afghan Taliban
 They are dependent on foreign aids to fight against Taliban.
 Afghan govt is weak but the international community and Neighbors on the other
hand.
 Wants the same government structure.
 Nor the structure would be removed.
 Nor afghan Taliban dominate.
 Nor they would be under mine at all.

2.3.1.4-Pakistan objectives in Afghanistan:

 The elimination of Indian military and intelligence from Afghanistan

 Wants the defeat of ISKP from Afghanistan.
 Existential threat to region – CPEC – BRI
 Pakistan do not want abrupt withdrawal of US and NATO from Afghanistan.
 Withdrawal create power vacuum.
 Filled by Non- state actors.
 Pakistan wants peace and stability in Afghanistan.
 If there is war in Afghanistan, there will be no peace in Pakistan.
 Worst affected of Afghan Jihad
 Jihadist culture
 Weapon culture
 Drugs culture
 Expansion of terrorist organization in Pakistan
 TTP. Lashkar Jhangvi
 2nd largest country of having suicide attacks.
 The dream to become transit corridor.
 64 countries become dependent .