Afghan Peace Process

*Peace process is the end of violence and hostility between different groups. There should be an end of war as
well as threat of the war.

Background
 Post 9/11, U.S. started military operation in Afghanistan after Taliban refused to handover OBL.
 Pakistan joined the U.S. in WOT.
 Taliban were dismissed and Hamid Karzai became President.
 President Bush’s (2001-2008) policy was to defeat Taliban militarily and end the threat of Taliban from
Afghanistan
 According to ‘Obama’s Af-Pak Strategy’, the real enemy was Al-Qaida.
 During Obama’s Govt., number of troops was increased in Afghanistan to weaker Taliban and force them
to negotiate with Afghan Govt. to end the war.
 Pakistan advised to have talks instead of increasing forces. (Afghan-led Afghan-owned process)
 Afghan Govt. termed Taliban as terrorists and refused to have any talks with them.
 U.S. Govt. had decided to withdraw troops by 2014.
 Pakistan proposed establishment of QCG (Quadrilateral Coordination Group) including Pak-Afg-U.S-China
to negotiate with Taliban.
 In the meanwhile, U.S. killed Taliban leader in a Drone attack and talks failed.

Trump’s Policy Towards South Asia and Afghanistan (2007)

 According to this policy, Pakistan’s backing was the reason of U.S. failure in Afg. Pakistan was declared as
part of the problem, not solution.
 Trump announced not to have any talks with Taliban. He announced to defeat them and force them to
talk to the Afg Govt.
 During Obama’s tenure, 1.5 lac U.S. and NATO forces were present, while at Trump’s time, there were just
20k troops.
 Trump asked India to play a proactive role in Afg.
 Ultimately, Trump realized that there can’t be peace in Afg without the involvement of Pak, Taliban can’t
be defeated with mere 20k troops and India can’t play a pro-active role.
 All these factors pushed U.S. Govt. to re-visit its policy and by the end of 2018, U.S Govt. agreed to have
direct talks with Taliban.
 Pak welcomed it while Afg Govt. opposed it.

Doha Deal
a) U.S. will withdraw troops from Afg gradually. In the first 135 days:
i) U.S. will vacate 5 bases.
ii) U.S. will withdraw 5k troops.
b) U.S. will ensure the release of 5k Afg prisoners in the first 100 days.
c) Intra-Afg talks will be resumed.
d) Taliban will not harbor any trans-national terrorist group, instead they will take military actions against
them.
Pakistan’s Role
a) Political support: Pak used its influence on Taliban to bring them to the table of talks. For this purpose
Pak had to release Mullah Bahadur (2nd in command after Taliban chief) from jail to act as a bridge
between Taliban and U.S. Govt.
b) Logistical support: Talks were held at different places. Pak provided logistical support to Taliban to
facilitate these talks.

Taliban’s Rise to Power

 On 15th of August 2021, Taliban entered Kabul. It was a sudden and unprecedented development for the
whole world.
 Ashraf Ghani fled to UAE and he is in self exile.
 U.S. forces and NATO allies left on 31st of August 2021.
 Despite the presence of 3.5 lac trained forces, Taliban were successful in capturing almost all the districts
within 10 days.

Why U.S. Backed Govt. Collapsed?

a) U.S. Policy Shift in Afg: Trump had announced to withdraw troops by May 2021 (according to Doha deal).
Unfortunately, the intra-afghan dialogue was not successful and after holding office, President Biden
announced to withdraw forces in August 2021 despite the circumstances in Afg. Without American
support, the Afg Govt. proved to be ineffective against Taliban.
b) Taliban’s Military Strategy: After Doha deal, Taliban stopped attacks on U.S. forces, preferred to move
towards the periphery of Afg and waited for U.S. withdrawal.
c) Internal Rivalries of Afghan Government: The regional warlords had no trust in the central govt. ,
therefore, they signed deals with Taliban and handed-over their districts to them in return for general
amnesty.

Implication of Taliban Takeover

a) Impacts on Afghanistan:
 Refugee crisis Despite amnesty scheme.
 Economic crisis As Canada, Germany and France stopped giving aid. During Ghani govt. 80% of
the developmental work was done through foreign aid. Due to these Western sanctions, Taliban
made an alliance with Al-Qaida in 1990’s to gain financial resources. If the sanctions continue,
Taliban may look to those trans-national elements for financial help.
 Fear of civil war in Afg Taliban are strong due to the possession of 20k armed vehicles and
fighter jets given to Afg army by U.S.
 Human right issues Although Taliban have announced to grant rights to women and minorities.
b) Impacts on International Community:
 Taliban takeover has Damaged U.S. Credibility A global perception has developed that U.S. is
not a trustable ally. America failed to contain Daesh and still carrying out drone attacks against
them
 America-Europe rift U.S. withdrawal manner was publically criticized by UK officials. According
to Former P.M of UK Tony Blair’s article (We must not abandon the people of Afg- For their sakes
and ours) published in Institute of Global Change, U.S. withdrawal was untimely and unwise and
U.S. has failed to achieve the core objective.
 Fear of rise in Radicalization The radical groups may rise around the world because their sister
ideology has defeated a global power.
  Cause of cautious celebration for China and Russia Because a power vacuum is present in Afg
which can be filled by global powers.
c) Impacts on Pakistan:
 Dilemma of recognition Pak should prefer a collective recognition and should consult regional
and global powers such as China, Turkey and Arab allies.
 Threat of refugee crises Pak already hosting 3 million Afg refugees and more influx would be
unsustainable for Pak due to current security and economic challenges.
 Fear of TTP regrouping Pak has deployed regular forces on afghan border since Taliban came to
power.
 Opportunities for Pak India’s influence in receding in Afg and there is an increased probability for
Pak to meet its geo-economic interests in Central Asia.