The Review of the Book

" No Win War"

By Zahid Hussain

Reviewed by: Jameel Baloch Adv. (Jameel.rodeni@gmail.com)

The below mentioned are the crux and briefed review of the book
No Win War. The book mainly ventilates and unearths the
contradiction and 20 years of distrust between US-Pak relation
under the shadow of Afghanistan.

Pak had neither a bonhomie nor tense relation with US and its
allies, but the 9/11 event morphed the history.

• The 9/11 attack was deemed as new chapter of history between

Pakistan and US. But both the countries could not built a trust
beside they remained a close ally. Albeit, Pak neither had much
cordiality nor tense relation with US before the 9/11. Soon after
the horrendous attack on US, Pak had no option, but to support US
against Taliban and al-Qaeda. In the case, Pak had turned down,
US would have to obliterate Pakistan if it did not cooperate. Even
Washington sometime warned and attacks on Pakistan for 'Do
More', Salala incident is an example. Pakistan, in keeping view its
economic, political and national interest, had to stooged the US
and become part of US war against terror. While India, the biggest
rival of Pak, was ready to give much airbases to US for expanding
its influence and isolate Pakistan internationally. Hence, Pak had to
give three airbases- Shamsi Airbase in Washuk, Pasni and
Jacobabad to US forces conditionally.
•The biggest worries for Pakistan was the increasing Indian
influence in Afghanistan and cordiality of US with New Dehli.

• Soon after 9/11, the blood of US was become more warmer than
ever for military revenge, even negotiation with Taliban or al-
Qaeda was considered to be an humiliation to the Superpower.
Albeit, US has no war with Taliban at the beginning, but only
demanding the handover or obliteration of Usama bin Laden and
others leaders from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pak was made
to make Mullah Umar, the then leader of Taliban regime, to
accept the US demand, but he clearly refused to do so. Hence the
US and Northern Alliance had to invade and topple the Taliban
regime. For future war on Afghanistan, an immediate conference
was called by US and Northern Alliance in November 2001 in
Germany to discuss the invasion and installation of their own
styled government in Afghanistan, which is known as 'Bonn
Conference 2001', soon after this conference, Afghanistan was
invaded and Taliban was uninstalled while US made Hamid Karzai
the president.
•Unfortunately , Pakistan was not included in the consultative
conference, because US had no trust on Pak. The seven years of
friendship between Pakistan and Taliban had created huge
mistrust on Islamabad's effort.
US knew that Pakistan wants to intact the Taliban regime and
could help the Islamic militants. Even Taliban regime was
recognised by Pakistan in 1996, while Musharaf had tried his best
to include the Afghan Taliban in Bonn Conference.
• Pakistan had greatly tried to convince the US to normalised the
situation between US and Taliban but failed. Pak had never wanted
to see the Taliban regime toppled, because it was in the interest of
Islamabad and because India could not be able to increase its
influences in Afghanistan during Taliban regime. Truthfully
speaking, Pakistan was compelled to cut its tie from Taliban and
support the US unconditionally.
•The increased bonhomie of US for India was major worries to
Pakistan, and is the reason for Islamabad by not acting against
Taliban on its soil and not fully cooperate with the coalition forces.
• When Pakistan had backed the Taliban, the Northern Alliance
had close links with both India and Iran to isolate Pakistan. Itan
tactically supported the US invasion for removal of Sunni regime,
hence attacking and gaining control on Afghanistan as
advantageous to Iran's regional interest. For, Pakistan it was
unfavourable. Pakistan had support the Taliban un order to contain
the Indian and Iranian influence.
•The Taliban should have been included in the Boon Conference as
a political organisation. There could have been ethnic balance in
the new dispensation in Afghanistan. It also could have been easy
for Islamabad to cooperate to US and Northern Alliance. Pak
disliked the US installed govt in Afghanistan, because it had much
amity with India against Pakistan's interest. Thats why Pakistan had
to support and shelter the Taliban groups.
•Taliban was finished as political force although a deal would have
ended the war much quicker and could have brought reconcile
elements of Taliban into the new power arrangement. US had no
ground knowledge that its desire for revenge would be achieved
merely on war, but a peace deal. Taliban accepted the challenge
and a war started. Civilian death caused by US air raids added to
the support for Taliban. Pak had supported the Quetta Shura which
was the main centre for recruitment for Taliban insurgents in
Afghanistan, it was absolutely unfavourable to India, Kabul, Iran
and US. They even accused of Pakistan supporting Taliban.
• Even more than 8000 new pupils were enrolled in the border
areas (Chaman) alone for making them fighter in future. Most the
Afghan Taliban had to flee in Pakistan along with their families
particularly in Quetta and Peshawar.
• Taliban had reorganised themselves in Pakistan. Pakistan's major
objective of supporting the insurgents was to undermine the Karzai
govt, because Kabul haf allowed India to use Afghan land for
alleged subversive activities in Pakistan e.g. stirring up the
insurgency in Balochistan.
• The lack of group knowledge about Taliban was prime reason of
devastation by US. Taliban roses due to public support in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. US should have negotiated with
moderated Taliban, and curtail the Indian influences in
Afghanistan. Pakistan was scapegoated hence it widened the
mistrust between US and Pakistan.
•The Taliban and al-Qaeda orchestrated its roots in Pakistan is
mainly due to some strategic support from Pakistani Generals e.g
Gen Shahid Aziz and Gen Mahmood. JUI and JI also greatly helped
Taliban & al-Qaeda to fight against US in Afghanistan.
•Balochistan and FATA had been remained the safest place for
them. There had been different views over US and Taliban among
the Pakistan Army. The main reason of paradox and mistrust
between US and Pakistan was that US had deemed that Islamabad
is playing double game in the War against Terror. Because US knew
everything about any move on Pakistan's side and was watching
that Taliban is receiving support from Pak-Army and Political
parties e.g JUI and JI.
•The fact is that Pakistan has supported the Haqqani Network and
Taliban only to the extent of encountering the Indian influences in
Afghanistan. It was Islamabad's unavoidable compulsion to
support those Islamic militants. Albeit, Islamabad was a closer ally
of US, nevertheless the Pak had to take a risk by supporting the
Taliban. Because Indian was taking advantage of the situation and
supported Baloch separatist groups to destabilise the peace in
Balochistan through Afghanistan.
•It was the prime interest of US to see Taliban and al-Qaeda be
defeated, but it greatly tamed and left Pakistan in the long term
herculean by fighting US's war against its own people.
•For a short term, Pakistan may got much economic and political
relief, but now it has to pay back a heavy price in a longer term.
Pak had made the Taliban its enemy by fighting the war of US
without any goal.
• In fighting with TTP, Pak had lost more than 70,000 civilian and
army and $40 billion dollars lose to national economy, while it had
received only $11 billion since 2001 as an Aid from US,
nevertheless US is demanding 'Do More' and is not building a trust
as it should have been. This mistrust disappointed the Islamabad
to the core.
•Due to US's arbitrarily, a huge gap come on surface b/w civilian
and military leadership. US had tried to diminished the army on ISI
and some other like thing through Kerry-Luger Bill.
•The Bill was endorsed by the PPP govt, but rebuffed by military
govt, IS had tried its best to make it acceptable by all. The bill's
unacceptability by military had showed that the elected civilian
govt cannot decide the all matters by its own. The power always
remained imbalanced.
•The is no doubt that the Bill was paradox to the sovereignty and
State policy, hence it was absolutely unfavourable military leaders.
US also realised that the civilian govt cannot afford too much
pressure, though it had to take the military chapter into
confidence.
•Fight for power between civil and military is not a new
phenomenon. While in the Kerry Bill, Civilian lost and Military won
over the issue in Sept 2009.
•US left Afghanistan and Pakistan in the lurch by expanding its
military operative. The then Presidents since 2001 had mainly
focused on the military solution, but did not realise that they will
never win the war by use of forces. While on war front, Pakistan
and Afghanistan had an equal importance before YS against Islamic
militants. Pak had greatly danced on the tune of US, by the later
had never built a trust on the former. Instead Islamabad was
greatly blamed, even attacked e.g Salala incident and Raymond
Davis incident.
•US did what it had wanted and handled things by her own
volition. Pak had no strong option to refuse American dictations,
but to cooperate. Even US had deemed Pakistan as its enemy.
Although, Pak authority was blindly following the directions of US,
by Asif Zardari govt thats why Islamabad lost to implement its
policy on Raymond Davis case.
•Killing of Usama bin Laden in Abbottabad without taking Pakistan
into confidence is an instance of huge distrust. US had said that
they did not alert Pakistani counterparts to raid, because they
feared that the terrorist leader would be warned before the US
forces carried out the target. Killing of Usama was a landmark
victory for US forces, but was a matter of national humiliation to
Pakistan.
•Due to widening trust deficit between Islamabad and
Washington, CIA had built its own clandestine network to track
down al-Qaeda leaders. ISI was totally bypassed. CIA had stopped
sharing information with Pakistani counterpart since 2005. Even
CIA had its own operating network of intelligence persons
including some Pakistani national.
•Pak-US relationship had largely been military to military. US
forces' failure in Afghanistan always scapegoated Pakistan,
because Washington often accused of Islamabad supporting
Taliban insurgents. Even at some times, US had warned that it
could take action against Pakistan if it refused to act jointly.
Truthfully speaking, US took action in the shape of Salala and
Raymond Davis incidents. After these incidents, the relation
between Islamabad and Washington become more alienated and
slippery, because Pak had closed Ground Line of Communication of
NATO and vacate the Shamsi Airbase in Washuk. Pak took these
step due public outrage. While Indian influences were increased to
pressurise Pakistan.
•US had done much attacks, humiliations and violation of
International Law in Pak, but was not willing to offer a sorry for
those incidents. This antagonists of US further widen the gap
between Islamabad and Washington. Pakistani authority deemed
those incidents as an attack on its sovereignty and sacrifices which
given since 2001.
•Due to those incident, the civil and military brass become
angered to each other and hurled a serious accusations of having
much bonhomie with US unconditionally and unconstitutional. Pak
had to face a national political crisis and instability . Even a military
coup was imminent.
•Pakistan had just wanted to hear an apology. Although, merely
insisting for a sorry will never filled a the vacuum of sovereignty,
because Salala incident was a slap on the sovereignty of the
country. Pakistan's efforts were at dubious on the eyes of US.
•Pakistan should not have compromised on its sovereignty and
national integrity, at least for some money. Because some part of
the Pakistani authority was demanding money in compensation for
Salala incident.
•At the beginning, US had never digested to talk to Taliban, but
after much realisation, US was convinced for negotiations. Pak had
played a constructive role in bringing the Taliban on the
negotiating table with US. Afghanistan and US was suspicious in
Pakistan's role initially, because India had never wanted Pakistan
to be a meditator. So, Talk to Taliban become fruitful with US.
• It was the great interest of Pakistan to have a peaceful
Afghanistan and successful negotiation between Washington and
Islamic Emirates.
• Due US war and Pakistan's participation, TTP had stormed at
various places in Pakistan, because they deemed Islamabad the
biggest ally of Washington. After that Pak military was finally
convinced that until TTP is eliminated, Islamabad could win the
war. But it was not accomplished, because Afghan govt was not
cooperating with Pakistan. Although, a stable and peaceful
Afghanistan was essential for the stability of Pakistan. US wanted
to engage Pakistan in War in which it could depend Islamabad on.
•Pakistan since 2001 was in in favour of the use of force in
Afghanistan, but blood of US was enough warm to take revenge.
Now, US is realising that Pak was right, because US had to
negotiated and had to sit along with 20 years old enemy. It was
Islamabad which had played its hard ball to convince the
Washington for a peaceful dialogue. Pakistan loses the trust
of both side: Taliban and US, nevertheless continued its efforts for
peace in the region.
•Manifold insurgents group had entrenched theirs feet in war-torn
country by sabotaging the peace talk. It was again the biggest
challenge for Trump administration to wipe out them, hence it had
to accept the Taliban as a political organisation and call for a
meaningful dialogue.
•The proposed deal involved the Withdrawal of US/Alliance troops
in Afghanistan and the Taliban not allowing other Jihadists to
operate within the country. While Taliban guaranteed that Afghan
soil would not again be used by terrorist groups like al-Qaeda.
•In all these junctures, Pak had facilitated peaceful negotiation
between US and Taliban which became fruitful.
•It was unwinnable war by US by is calling it as a 'Good War'. US
gad no ground knowledge about Afghanistan and Taliban, hence it
had to face an indirect defeat by the Taliban.
•Tens of thousands Afghans and US troops in the war by spending
more than $3 trillion in Afghanistan on war against Terror and
deployed over 775,000 since 2001.
•The fact is that the peace deal with Taliban is the major victory of
Trump. But a major concern of US is that the IS or al-Qaeda would
gain ground in Afghanistan while the Afghan and Taliban fight each
other as it is.
•To conclude, I can say that the Afghan War is the basic cause of
tension between US-Pak and Pak-Afghan, while complete breakup
was not a good option for either. US-Pak relation can be called as
frenemies.
•US will be withdrawn in this month, but the fact is that it has left
Afghanistan in the herculean lurch and engaged Pakistan in so-
called Islamic war.

Afghan-Taliban conflict and its impact on Pakistan.

In briefly, the following would be the impact on Pakistan due to
volatile situation in the war-torn country (Afghanistan):

■ Pakistan shares about 2252 km borderlines with Afghanistan,

while out of 2252 km, it shares 800 km only with Balochistan
province which has been remained a centre for terrorism through
Afghanistan. There is no doubt that Balochistan's security situation
correlates with the former.
■The security situation of Afghanistan is almost all correlate to the
security, economic and political volatility of Pakistan, hence it
would not be wrong to say that there will be manifold impact due
deteriorating situation of Afghanistan on Pakistan .

■As far as the ongoing war in Afghanistan is concerned, Pakistan

would witnessed a fresh influx of refugees into Pakistan. This will
exacerbate the burden on Pakistan which is already bearing
innumerable Afghan refugees due to the very large refugee
presence in the country.
■A civil war in Afghanistan could have a spillover effect and
regenerate violence and militancy in the border areas including the
erstwhile FATA region as well as in Balochistan.
▪︎Estimatedly, 500,000 to 700,000 Afghan refugees would influx
into Pakistan, hence it poses a great security threat. Terrorism
once again would be spread in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan
and KPK area .
■The situation may be worsen in Balochistan due international
proxies, and India will use its all the best to destabilise the peace in
Balochistan by supporting Baloch separatist movements.
■The Taliban group now controls border crossings and main trade
routes with all neighbouring countries, denying the Afghan
government a major source of income from custom duties and
transit fees.
■Further instability or Taliban gains in Afghanistan could embolden
Pakistani militants aligned with their Afghan counterparts,
deepening insecurity in Pakistan.
■There will be more drug trafficking into Pakistan
from Afghanistan.
■There are genuine fears that the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
which has found shelter on Afghan soil, could gain fresh traction
and attempt to unleash terror on Pakistani soil.
■There will be huge impact on the trade and goods transit in
Pakistan, as the Taliban have captured many exiting or entey
borders points of Afghanistan with others neighbouring countries.
■Inflation will be up surged in Pakistan, because most of goods
come from Afghanistan as duty free or with much low rate, they
become closed as soon as situation got worsen in Afghanistan.
■Sunni militancy would be surged and they could impose their
Shariah rule and counter the Shia community.
■There would be an impact on the Baloch separatist movement in
Balochistan as their supply chain may not be run properly as it is.
■Balochistan's fissiparous groups may not be able to received
much materials help as they are receiving in the present US
installed govt in Afghanistan.
■There could be a political conflict between Baloch and Pashtoon
over the refugees matter in Balochistan.
■Pahtoon dominated area will be more religiosed and women
educated might be marginalised.
■There will be huge impact on the CPEC project due to insecurity
in the province of Balochistan.
■The influence of Baloch movement will be limited in Balochistan,
because it almost depends on the Indian influences in Afghanistan.
■Pakistan will not be able to come out from the interdependency
of US, because US would continue to be engaged in the area. Even
US may pressurise Pakistan for 'Do More', while Islamabad is
already facing manifold wars against TTP and others like groups.
▪︎World powers are using the Afghan land to permeate
destabilisation and insurgency in the name of religious war. In
reality there is no holy war, but proxies in order to counter the
Afghan people.

■ Pakistan's hard-won gains in its counterterrorism campaign

could be upended, because the security of Pakistan is inextricably
tied to Afghanistan. This will place Pakistan in a zone of instability
which will dampen trade and investment badly needed to achieve
economic growth targets.
▪︎Pakistan had already bearded billions of Dollars in economic loses
in the aftermath of 9/11 when the 'war on terror' spilled over into
the country's border areas and cities. In case of Civil War, it could
lead to a proxy in the region as it had been done in the past.

The Deteriorating of Afghanistan and its bad impacts on

Balochistan:
Following would be the bad impacts on Balochistan due to
insecurity and insurgency in Afghanistan.
●There will be a new influx of Afghan refugees in Balochistan.
●The more refugees, the greater insecurity and destabilisation
would get increased in Balochistan.
●There will be more drug trafficking in Balochistan through
Afghanistan drug dealers.
● There will be huge impact on the goods transit in Balochistan
●Inflation will be increased in Balochistan.
● Sunni militancy may be surged in order to spread their Shariah
rule and counter the Shia community.
● Balochistan's fissiparous groups may not be able to received
much materials help as they are receiving in the present US
installed govt in Afghanistan.
● There could be a political conflict between Baloch and Pashtoon
over the refugees matter in Balochistan.
●Pahtoon dominated area will be more religiosed and women
educated might be marginalised.
● There will be huge impact on the CPEC due to insecurity in the
province.
● The influence of Baloch political movement will be limited in
Balochistan
●What more impact on the Baloch are:
There will be three main issues in which the Baloch would face
them in case of bad situation of Afghanistan are :
•the Identity crisis,
•the resources exploitation
•the self-government in the province due to the mass influx of
Afghans refugees into Balochistan.
● The poverty ratio in Balochistan is already to 80%, but it will be
surged.
● As due Nutrition , 16 women, 18% children die in Balochistan.
●Baloch want self governance independently in Balochistan
without any interface by Islamabad, while it will not be easy to get
it in case of more refugees in Balochistan.
● Pakistan will not be able to come out from the interdependency
of US as it has been drowned in the hole of issues.
●World powers are using the Afghan land to permeate
destabilisation and insurgency in the name of religious war. In
reality there is no holy war, but proxies in order to counter the
Afghan people.
●Lastly, Balochistan will witness much more security, business,
Political, Food, Identity, resources, governance and peace and
prosperity issues. The impact of these issues would make the
inhabitants more unsecured.
● Because the security situation of Afghanistan is almost correlate
to each other.

May Almighty Allah bring eternal peace in the region!