Afghanistan post-withdrawl

scenario: Challenges for

Pakistan
 Before indulging in the discussion, let’s see
what’s actually meant by “post-withdrawl”

 To answer this question, let’s have a glimpse

at the history …
Russia invasion of Afghanistan
 In 1979 Russia invaded afghanistan in order
to

Gain access to warm waters

To expand its influence to warm waters
To save a communist party “ PDPA”
USA gets inviolved

 Due to cold war, USA gets involed

 CIA aids Mujahideen (Freedom fighter) from

all across the world and ISI trains those
fighters.
 Al-Qaeda is formed and Osama bin Laden

becomes a protagonist Mujahid.

Disintegration of Russia

 As a result Russia withdraws from

Afghanistan in 1989.

 Russia disintegrates in 1991.

Security vacuum and Taliban
 Due to withdrawal of Russia a security
vacuum was created and domestic instability
due to tribal skirmishes occur.

 In 1996, Taliban under the leadership of

Mullah Umar forms government in
Afghanistan.
9/11 Attacks and its aftermath
 On 9th Sept, 2001, 19 members of Al-Qaeda
hijacked 4 commercial plans of USA.

 2 crashed into world trade centre, 1 in the

Pentagon and 1in Pennsylvnia.

 This causes more than 3,000 casualties and

resentment grown among the Americans.
War on Terror

 In response to 9/11 attacks, President of US

George W. Bush declares war against Taliban
in Afghanistan called “ War on Terror”

 Since then, for nearly 2 decades they’ve been

fighting war on terror.
A failed Global War on Terror
 USA has failed completely in “War on Terror”

 After costing approximatelt 2 Trillion dollars

they are unable to curb Talibans.

 About 70-75% area of Afghanistan is under

the control of Talibans.
Peace deal, “Doha Agreement”
 To ease the burden of the useless “War on
terror”, and to save its economy from
collapsing, USA is retreating from
Afghanistan.

 And for its own face saving they signed a

peace deal with Taliban.
Post-Withdrawl Challenges
 Afghanistan is in the north-west of Pakistan
sharing 26,70 Km of border called Durand
line.

 Any kind of insurgency or political stability in

Afghanistan will lead to chaos in Pakistan.

 Some of them are as follows

1.Forming of its Foreign Policy
 The 1st and the foremost challenge for
Pakistan would be, how it will react towards
the USA, Taliban and Afghan Government.
 USA has urged Pakistan to give its airbases to

launch counter terrorism attacks but our PM

IK has blatantly denied that plea.
 Reason for doing so is CPEC and China

influence in Pakistan.
2. Security threats
 The most challenging point after withdrawl of
USA would be security threats for Pakistan.

 As Afghan govt is not a party of Doha

Agreement, so it can lead to A “Civil War” in
Afghanistan.
Concequenses of Civil war
1. Influx of Refugees as we had faced during
Russian invasion.

2. Burden on already crippled economy

3. Intenisification of TTP.

4. Regrouping of ISIS ( Dash)

What Pakistan can do ?
 In order to counter all these factors, Pakistan
can
 Can contribute to promote peaceful political

settlement between “Afghan government” and

“Afghan Talibans” to avoid Civil War.

 Fencing and security beats across Pak-

Afghan border should be more rapid to halt
the cross border terrorism.
Now the students are rulling over
afghanistan

THE END