Afghan Peace Process: A Stalemate

The seventh round of US-Taliban peace talks in Doha, Qatar is to be started on 29 June.
Peace talks also held in Moscow and Islamabad. US want a way out of 18-year long war but
couldn’t find it so far. Foreign troops mainly US’ are in Afghanistan since 2001. Taliban regime
was toppled for harboring Al-Qaeda. Since then, there have a continuous war in Afghanistan and
peace has been a dream. After a long war against armed fighters of Taliban, US finally decided
to find a political way out of Afghanistan but couldn’t find yet.

Why there hasn’t been any major breakthrough?

A desperate exit of US from Afghanistan may leave the country in the quagmire of never
ending war again and jeopardize the lives of peace seeking Afghans. US itself cannot afford to
leave the country on the verge of vendetta; therefore US want Taliban to have intra-Afghan
consensus by dialogue to provide Afghanistan a politically stable system of government. On the
other hand, US is clearly is reluctant to hand-over the country to Taliban solely. US’ fear about
Taliban taking whole control of the country after US withdrawal has some ground. Now Taliban
control territory more than any other point since 2001. This makes US think a lot before
withdrawal and Taliban a resurgent. US want to ensure that Afghanistan will not be used as a
base to support terrorism in which US may be successful if she plays wisely.

Civil rights of citizens, freedom of living minorities, infrastructure and political stability
are the major concerns after US’ withdrawal for which US have to trust Taliban but they don’t.
Therefore, US is trying to have intra-Afghan dialogue to make sure power may be distributed
rather than dominated by Taliban.

Taliban have long wanted foreign troops’ withdrawal without a precondition and the
reason is simple; Taliban don’t trust US. Taliban want troops out of Afghanistan before any
major agreement but US can’t do this and think to be hand-cuffed in talks with no troops there.

There is clearly a lack of trust from both sides and no side is ready to compromise.
Taliban are not ready to stop fighting and US is not clear on the timeline of troops’ withdrawal
which may break the ice for a major breakthrough. Afghan government has already been written-
off from the negotiations as Taliban consider them as a “puppet” having no free will. This
scenario may well be dealt by regional actors.
Role of regional actors
In Afghan peace process Pakistan has been the third important actor after US and
Taliban. Zalmay Khalilzad has appreciated Pakistan’s efforts for peace in Afghanistan earlier but
Afghan government want minimum role of Pakistan in the process as they are feared that after
US withdrawal their survival is difficult against Pakistan backed Taliban. US and Afghan
government both want Pakistan to pressurize Taliban to make concessions. Pakistan can’t
pressurize Taliban as American withdrawal is inevitable and Pakistan does not want to
jeopardize its relations with any group in Afghanistan including Taliban. However, Pakistan may
facilitate peace process which it has been doing sincerely and may suggest Taliban to make
sincere concessions for the prosperity of Afghanistan and the region beyond.

On 22nd June, Afghan leaders including Gulbadin Hekmatyar arrived in Pakistan to make
sure their interests are not threatened. On 27th June, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is about to
land in Islamabad for an important visit to eliminate the differences between two governments.
Upcoming round of talks is to be held in Doha, Qatar and Qatari Emir recently visited Pakistan
for two day visit. Things are getting clear and Pakistan is playing and must carry on an important
role in Afghan peace process.

China and Russia both have hosted Taliban leaders and giving respect to them as both are
seeing American hegemony perished in the region and are making relations better with Taliban
for the future. Russia and China want soon withdrawal of US to have US influence minimum in
the region and it may become easier for China to expand its Belt and Road Initiative further and
freely with no adversary in the region like US.

India wants peace in Afghanistan but don’t want US withdrawal. US presence in

Afghanistan makes it easier for India to invest there and have free access to the markets to
increase influence but growing role of Taliban increasing Indian apprehensions about her future.
India considers its future dark if Taliban regain power. Consequently, Taliban controlled
Afghanistan will have Pakistani influence and a region can be influenced by either India or
Pakistan.
A way forward
A sincere effort is required to break the stalemate. US and Taliban both are going rigid.
There is a lack of flexibility. They have to compromise for lasting peace. Till now both are
seemingly not backing from their key demands but sincere and continuous efforts from all actors
may find a way forward to break the deadlock.

Next round of talks in Qatar later this week may have a breakthrough but it does not seem
to be following the earlier traditions.