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H Thng Tin T Quc T

Vn la chn c ch t gi hi oi

Cc c ch t gi hi oi
C bao nhiu c ch t gi hi oi m bn

nghe qua?
Cu hi thng gp:

Vit Nam nn theo c ch t gi no v cu tr li ca bn da trn c s lp lun g?

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u nhc im c ch t gi
T gi hi oi th ni u im:
Cho php chnh sch tin t theo ui mc tiu khc

(n nh gi c v vic lm).
Nhc im:
T gi hi oi bp bnh v khng chc chn, c th

lm cho hot ng thng mi, u t kh khn.

u nhc im c ch t gi
T gi hi oi c nh u im:
Thng mi, u t d dng hn (gim s khng

chc chn ca t gi). Gip c quan tin t hot ng trong khun php, c k cng, ngn cung tin tng trng thi qu.
Nhc im:
Chnh sch tin t khng c s dng theo

ui mc tiu chnh sch khc ngoi duy tr t gi. C quan tin t hot ng trong khun php c th dn n bt n nhiu hn v thu nhp v vic lm.

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Vn trung tm hin nay

Hi nhp v WTO
1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3.

Gim hng ro thu quan Khng hn ch nhp khu i x cng bng Vn di chuyn t do Thng mi u t di hn u t ti chnh T gi hi oi c nh Chnh sch tin t c lp Vn di chuyn t do

Vn di chuyn v ng tin c kh nng chuyn i

Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi

Lm th no dung ha gia vn lu chuyn t do & t gi n nh?

H thng tin t quc t t 1870

Bn v vng Gold Standard (1817-1933) Bretton Woods (1944-1973) Hu Bretton Woods Phi h thng (1973-nay)

Mi h thng vn hnh nh th no v nh hng g n chnh sch kinh t v m quc gia?

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Bn v Vng
Gi tr tin giy theo vng, chuyn i tin vng, v

ngoi thng dng vng T gi hi oi: gi tr ni t theo vng ca hai nc. C ch iu chnh BOP:

Nu hng ha M r hn ca Anh: M thng d thng mi, Vng chy t Anh sang M, tng cung tin ca M, P ca M tng - n khi P ca Anh-M ngang nhau Nc c TB<0: tng i, gim chi tiu, gim dng chy vng

Chnh sch tin t b ng v c sc thc ln: BOP<0: vng chy ra ngoi, gim cung tin, phc hi TB nhng ch khi tng cu gim mnh. Khm ph m vng mi c th lm pht. Gi trung bnh c nh, nhng dao ng sn lng v gi.

Bretton Woods
Nhu cu n nh t gi v hi phc sau chin

tranh 1944: M v phn b vng th gii

C ch 2 tng nc: M nh gi vng theo la (N-1) nc cn li c nh t gi theo la. Nu BOP<0 kinh nin: IMF v iu chnh nh k

C ch n nh gi v sn lng khi BOP thm

ht/thng d 1971: H thng sp

M: NX<0 ln, lm pht cao, ph gi la so Mark & Yen

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Hu Bretton Woods
C ch phi h thng (non-system) Lu chuyn vn quc t tng mnh T gi linh hot v NHTU can thip th trng ngoi hi

iu chnh dao ng Vng v a dng ti sn d tr quc t. Nc khng xut khu du v km pht trin tip cn ngun qu IMF Bn h thng t gi:
Th ni t do (Free Float) Th ni c qun l (Managed Float) C nh (Pegged to another currency)
la M hay Euro y ban/Hi ng Tin T (Currency Board)

Khng c ng tin quc gia

la ha hon ton (Full dollarization)

Bng chng st gim t gi trung gian - Tt c cc nc

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1997 2004

Th Ni Trung Gian C nh

Ngun: Eichengreen v Razo-Garcia 2006

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Kim Sot Vn (2003)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cc nc pht trin Cc nc mi ni Cc nc ang pht trin

ng M

Ngun: Eichengreen v Razo-Garcia 2006

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Tin trnh pht trin c ch t gi - Nc ang pht trin

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1997 2004

Th Ni Trung Gian C nh

Ngun: Eichengreen v Razo-Garcia 2006

C ch t gi v Kim sot vn - Nc ang pht trin

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1997 2003

ng-th ni ng-trung gian ng-c nh M-th ni M-trung gian M-c nh

Ngun: Eichengreen v Razo-Garcia 2006

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Xu hng la chn c ch t gi: Nc ang pht trin

Hard peg/Fixed (c nh) Intermediate (trung gian)

Capital controls (ng) ng C nh

ng Trung gian

Capital mobility (m) M - C nh

M - Trung gian

Floating (th ni)

ng Th ni

M - Th ni

La chn no ph hp Vit Nam nht? V sao?

Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi (The Impossible Trinity)

C ch t gi hi oi c nh Chnh sch tin t c lp Vn di chuyn hon ton t do

Free capital flows

Mt nc phi chn mt cnh ca tam gic v t b gc i din. Option 1 (U.S.) Option 2 (Hong Kong)

Independent monetary policy

Option 3 (China)

Fixed exchange rate

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Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi
C ch t gi hi oi c nh
Chnh sch tin t c lp Vn di chuyn hon ton t do

Liu chnh sch v hiu ha (Sterilization Policy) c gip t c 3 mt cch bn vng?

Xu hng la chn c ch t gi: Nc ang pht trin

T gi c nh/trung gian thng i km kim sot vn M ca ti khon vn v t gi th ni c c khng? M ca ti khon vn + t gi c nh? (km hp dn) Sp y ban tin t Argentine 2001 (T-G)<0 ln: chnh ph tm thm ngun Chnh ph bn tri phiu ra nc ngoi v ngn hng trong nc: gi tr tri phiu gim, kh nng v n tng, h thng ngn hng sp Kim sot vn + t gi th ni? (nhiu vn ) Khng th t bo him ri ro t gi (th trng quyn chn v H tng lai km pht trin) Ri ro tng nu m ca ti khon vn, bo m ngm H thng ngn hng vng mnh, th trng ti chnh ni a thanh khon, v h thng qun tr vng mnh cn thi gian Bt n kinh t v m

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T gi c nh v tn cng u c
Lm pht trong nc cao hn th gii, Ngang bng sc mua khng m bo, Thm ht cn cn thng mi ln, Nim tin v kh nng bo v/quyt tm theo ui

t gi c nh (Anh,1992)

Ti sao nhiu nc ang pht trin vn chn t gi trung gian?

Do ni t mt gi, khng th d bo nn mi ngi s

dng ngoi t. V sao ni t mt gi?

H thng ngn hng, doanh nghip trong nc i mt

bt cn i ni-ngoi t (do ni t mt gi? V sao?)

p lc ph gi - hiu ng bng cn i Cn st rt tin - rt tho ngoi t, rt ni t mua ngoi t

Dng t ngt: vn khng vo/chy ra dn n ph gi nh ch ti kha/tin t yu km Thm ht ti kha => Vn chy ra do k vng ph gi v ph gi tht nh ch yu km nn khng th ni t u Li ch th ni t gi l c chnh sch tin t c lp nh ch tin t thiu s tn nhim/nim tin, liu chnh sch tin t c thc s c lp?

La chn c ch t gi hay pht trin cc nh ch ti kha v tin t?

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Dng t Ngt v Khng Hong Ti Chnh 1992-2001

25 20 15 10 5 0 Cc nc pht trin Cc nc ang pht trin Ph gi nh ng khng dng t ngt Ph gi dn n dng t ngt Dng t Ngt dn n ph gi

Ngun: Calvo v Mishkin 2002

Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime

A new look at an old question: Should countries fix, float, or choose something in between? - Atish R Ghosh and Jonathan D. Ostry (2009)

IMF v 3 nghin cu 1999, 2003 v 2009 1999: cc quc gia nn theo c nh cng (hard

pegs) hay th ni hon ton. 2003: cc nn kinh t th trng mi ni v ang pht trin do hi nhp ti chnh su hn nn theo c ch th ni. Ni s th ni (fear of floating)

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Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime

A new look at an old question: Should countries fix, float, or choose something in between? - Atish R Ghosh and Jonathan D. Ostry (2009)

2009:
Cc c ch t gi gn vi c nh thng ri vo

khng hong, nhng cc c ch th ni cng khng hon ton min nhim. nh i quan trng ca vic chn c ch t gi. T gi nghing v c nh nhiu hn gip quc gia:
nh hnh k vng lm pht, tng trng sn lng n nh,

v thc y hi nhp kinh t su hn. Hn ch vic s dng cc chnh sch v m khc (impossible trinity). Gia tng bt n trc cc cuc khng hong Ngn cn cc iu chnh bn ngoi.

Kt lun
Nng lc chnh ph, k cng ngn sch Qun l, gim st v kim sot h thng ngn

hng, v h thng tin t c lp Mt khi cc nh ch trn pht trin, la chn c ch t gi c cn l vn ?

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C ch t gi hi oi Vit Nam

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La chn c ch t gi hi oi
L thuyt cho thy c nhiu la chn

C nh (fixed) C nh c bin (bands) C nh c iu chnh dn (crawling pegs) Th ni c qun l (managed float) Th ni (float)

Nu hng v vn di chuyn ngy cng t do th

mi la chn c ch t gi c hm khc nhau vi vai tr ca chnh sch tin t

nghi v c tnh c lp cao hn

T gi cng linh hot th chnh sch tin t cng ty

Thc t chnh sch t gi v chnh sch tin t Vit Nam

T 2008 n nay, s linh hot c ch t gi cho

php tnh ty nghi nhiu hn ca chnh sch tin t

Chnh sch tin t OMO (tht cht/ni lng thanh khon) c s dng bn cnh li sut c bn Mc tiu tn dng, quy nh hnh chnh, thuyt phc tinh thn Mc tiu lm pht trong khong 6-10% Chnh sch t gi C nh c iu chnh vi bin dao ng hp T gi giao dch bin trn K vng v p lc mt gi VND ngy cng ln

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Lp lun ng h v ph phn chnh sch hin hnh

ng h Cn bng tng trng v kim ch lm pht Mi trng ton cu bt n H thng ti chnh v ngn hng yu km Th trng ni a km pht trin Ph thuc nhp khu v n quc gia Phn bin Phn ng chnh sch chm v b ng Tnh bin ng, khng chc chn v kh d on ca chnh sch Thiu minh bch lm yu i nim tin trong vic qun l kinh t v m Chi ph giao dch cao v nim tin tin ng gim

Cu hi: T gi thc s l cha kha gii quyt hay ch l h qu ca nhng trc trc kinh t v m?

Cc cu hi thay li kt
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

H thng tin t quc t ang vn hnh nh th no v nh hng g n chnh sch kinh t v m quc gia? Lm th no dung ha gia vn lu chuyn t do v t gi n nh? La chn c ch t gi hay pht trin cc nh ch ti kha v tin t? Mt khi cc nh ch trn pht trin, la chn c ch t gi c cn l vn ? T gi thc s l cha kha gii quyt hay ch l h qu ca nhng trc trc kinh t v m? Vit Nam nn theo c ch t gi no v cu tr li ca bn da trn c s lp lun g?

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