Despite the doubts expressed about the utility of the term, however, conference participants generally agreed that

globalization is a new phenomenon with a number of core characteristics:

Unprecedented economic interdependence, driven by cross-border capital movements, rapid technology transfer, and "real time" communication and information flows; Rise of new actors that challenge state authority, particularly nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and civic groups, truly global firms and production networks, and even financial markets; Growing pressure on states to conform to new international standards of governance, particularly in the areas of transparency, accountability, and the rule of law; The emergence of an increasingly Western-dominated international culture, a trend which has sparked concern about the erosion of national identity and traditional values in many Asian countries; and The rise of increasingly severe transnational problems such as energy and environmental concerns, large-scale migration flows, and organized crime networks that require multilateral cooperation to resolve.

The forces of globalization will not totally transform Asias regional security order, but they will produce a new set of challenges and opportunities for policymakers in the next century.

Globalization and Regional Security

The impact of globalization on Asias security environment is complex. In

addition to affecting political and economic conditions within states, globalization may be transforming relations among states. This impact is not necessarily negative. A number of participants argued that in some ways the forces of globalization have brought about greater stability in the region. Deeper economic integration, and the emergence of regional "growth triangles" such as the Johor-Riau-Singapore triangle in Southeast Asia have reduced the potential for conflict; the unprecedented interdependence spurred by globalization gives states an incentive to cooperate. Indeed, in the words of an Indonesian participant, the "absence of war" in Southeast Asia in recent years must be attributed at least in part to the forces of globalization. Nevertheless, the impact of globalization on the regional security environment is not entirely positive. Though globalization may mitigate the potential for conflict in some parts of the region, other traditional

security concerns appear immune to its effects; indeed, globalization may actually serve to aggravate long-standing tensions. The forces of globalization are also giving rise to new challenges that will test the ability of regional governments to cooperate. Participants linked the following set of concerns with globalization: New Threats A number of participants linked the rise of new "transnational" concerns to the impact of globalization. Many of these challenges represent long-term threats that have traditionally fallen outside the realm of foreign policy. The cross-boundary nature of these threats also poses a dilemma for Asian governments. Developing the institutional capacity at both the domestic and international level to address these concerns will be a major challenge for the region in the next century. These new threats include:

Energy and environmental concerns. Rapid economic growth in Asia has led to growing reliance on energy imports, increasing the importance of sea lanes and transportation routes. The regions increased use of energy has also exacerbated environmental degradation, which several participants linked to social unrest. Food and water security. The growing problem of environmental degradation, coupled with growing populations in the region have increased pressure on food and water supplies. Although improvements in agricultural technology appear likely to mitigate food security issues, water availability was cited by several participants as a likely source of conflict in the future. Migration. The combination of rapidly growing populations in much of the developing world, increasingly porous national borders, and disparities in economic growth rates, have sparked a dramatic increase in international migration. Migration has already emerged as a source of tension in Southeast Asia; Malaysia deployed troops and naval vessels to limit the arrival of Indonesian migrants during the financial crisis. Organized crime and threats from other "non-state" actors. Through the increasing ease of communication and transportation flows, and the growing permeability of national borders, organized crime networks, terrorists, drugs and weapons traffickers, and even human smugglers face fewer constraints on their activity. Some participants suggested that these threats may prove to be some of the most pernicious of the 21st century.

Weakening Regional Institutions? Asias financial crisis, and the forces of globalization more broadly, may have a corrosive effect on the regions multilateral institutions. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forums inability to forge a response to the financial crisis has led

many to question the institutions future relevance. Participants also noted that the future of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) appears increasingly uncertain, given the current turmoil in Indonesia, although the organization will continue to be Southeast Asias core institution for the foreseeable future. Rifts also appear to be emerging between ASEANs democratic and more authoritarian members. Thailand and the Philippines, for example, have advocated a policy of "flexible engagement", which would allow ASEAN members to comment on each others internal policy matters; these countries have similarly supported proposals for a new ASEAN surveillance system, in which members would cooperate in monitoring economic indicators for signs of impending crisis. These initiatives would represent a departure from ASEANs traditional stance of non-interference in domestic affairs and could spark opposition from within the organization. Globalization may ultimately bring about new concepts of sovereignty and regional security interaction. Shifts in the Balance of Power The capacity of globalization to fuel rapid economic growth and to ravage economies almost overnight implies that regional and global balances of power can change more quickly than in the past. The combination of rapid Chinese economic growth and extended stagnation in Japan, for example, could significantly alter the balance of political, economic, and military power in Asia in a relatively short period of time. Participants noted that globalization could also give rise to new sources of rivalry. Deepening economic integration, for example, could contribute to the emergence of regional economic blocks that compete for power and influence. Some participants suggested that the European Unions rise as a possible challenge to American economic dominance can be seen as a political consequence of globalization. Expanding Roles for the Military The combination of lingering traditional threats, the prospect of increased internal tensions in Asian countries, and the emergence of new security challenges will place unprecedented demands on regional militaries. Military organizations will have to take on new roles, a trend that may spark resistance within the ranks of uniformed personnel. At the same time, other demands in Asian societies will compete for financial resources, and growing economic opportunities elsewhere will likely reduce recruitment levels. Increasing demands on the military, in other words, will likely coincide with a period of declining resources stretching the armed forces in many countries very thin. How Important is Globalization? Conference participants agreed that globalization undoubtedly is introducing new complexity into the