C S L LUN KHOA HC V TIU CH

XUT LI TRM KH TNG GIM ST BIN I KH HU

TS. Bi Vn c(1), PGS.TS Nguyn Vit Lnh, CN. inh Xun Trng(2)
(1) Trung tm D bo Kh tng Thy vn Quc Gia
(2) Trung tm ng dng cng ngh v Bi dng nghip v kh tng thy vn v mi trng.

ri t ang nng dn ln do nng cc loi kh nh knh trong bu kh

quyn ang c xu hng tng dn ln dn n bin i kh hu. Bin i
kh hu , ang v s tc ng n mi trng t nhin, mi lnh vc kinh
t - x hi, n mi ngi trn tri t. V th, bin i kh hu l vn kinh t, a l v
chnh tr trng tm ca loi ngi trong th k XXI.

Vit Nam l mt trong nhng quc gia chu nh hng ca bin i kh hu

nghim trng nht. Bin i kh hu s tc ng nng n n i sng, sn xut, mi
trng, h tng c s, sc khe cng ng nc ta. Chnh v vy, Nh nc coi vic xy
dng chin lc tng th ng ph vi bin i kh hu v nc bin dng l vn sng
cn v sm xy dng Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu.
Bi bo a ra kt qu nghin cu bc u v c s l lun khoa hc v tiu ch
xy dng mng li kh tng gim st BKH, phc v cho cng tc theo ri, gim st
hin trng, xu hng bin ng v cc tc ng ca BKH.
1. C s l lun khoa hc
Ni dung c bn ca cng tc quy hoch li trm gim st BKH nc ta ngy
nay l hp l ha li trm hin c. Cng vic hp l ha cn thit c tin hnh theo
nhng nguyn tc sau y:
-

Bo m tnh khoa hc ca li trm.

Phc v c lc cc ngnh kinh t quc dn v quc phng.

K tha, bo v c cu ch yu v tnh hp l ca li trm hin c.

Tn trng hon cnh thc t, trc ht l iu kin kinh t k thut lin quan n
vic duy tr hot ng ca mi mt trm, nht l trm min ni v trm hi o.

to iu kin thun li cho vic hp l ha li trm gim st BKH theo

nhng nguyn tc trn, phi c nhng khu chun b cn thit, bao gm:
-

Hon thin vic phn nh loi trm hin c.

Phn nh mt s hng trm trong mi mt loi trm.

Xc nh ch tiu mt cho mt s loi trm trn mt s khu vc.

Xc nh mt s ch tiu k thut khc, ngoi mt , cho mt s loi trm.

Kt qu ca cc khu cng tc chun b ni trn c coi l c s ca vic hp l

ha li trm gim st BKH bao gm cc ni dung chnh sau y:
-

i chiu cc ch tiu k thut vi hin trng ca tng loi trm gim st BKH.

Pht hin nhng tn ti trong mi mt loi trm hin ti.

Kin ngh iu chnh mt trm thng qua vic gii th mt s trm khng tiu
chun tn ti v thnh lp mt s trm cn thit.

 xy dng c h thng mng li trm hp l cn tnh ton, phn tch cc mi

quan h thng k gia cc trm hin ti, lm c s cho vic thm, bt trm. Vic loi b
hay thm trm cn c cc tiu ch chun, tiu ch ny c xy dng t cc trm c s v
trm c s l trm c chn ra t h thng mng li trm hin c.
T vic phn tch cc tiu ch c cn c v c s loi b hoc thm trm, vn
ny sinh l v tr s t trm mi. V tr ny c xc nh thng qua nhng tiu ch sau:
-

V tr c chn phi th hin r s phn ha ca kh hu, thy vn. Yu t ch o

thy c s phn ha ny ch yu da vo iu kin a hnh, hng gi ch
o, ch ma v ch nhit.

p ng c cc yu cu pht trin kinh t - x hi. Da vo bn hin trng v

bn quy hoch tng th pht tin kinh t - x hi theo cc thi k.

Quy phm xy dng trm chung.

2. Phng php xy dng li trm kh tng gim st BKH

2.1. Phng php nghin cu
Phng php c la chn nghin cu xy dng li trm kh tng gim st
BKH l phng php hm cu trc D-S, da trn c trng quan trng ca trng ngu
nhin ng nht v ng hng ca cc yu t kh tng.
Thc cht ca phng php ny trong vic xy dng li trm kh tng gim st
BKH l i tm hm tng quan khng gian gia tr s hm cu trc vi khong cch gia
cc trm ang xt. Phng trnh ton m t phng php D-S nh sau:

Trong : l tr s hm cu trc gia trm I v trm J; l l khong cch gia 2

trm I v J.
2.2. Trm c s la chn tnh ton
Trm c s c hiu l trm c la chn xy dng cc tiu ch c bn dng
so snh, nh gi cc trm khc vi trm c s .Tc l cc gi tr, cc c trng ca
trm c s l chun, t hoc gn nh khng thay i trong cc iu kin khc nhau, v phn
nh ng tnh ngu nhin ca i lng nghin cu.
i vi bi ton gim st BBKH th vic la chn trm c s rt quan trng, n
quyt nh ti kt qu ng sai ca bi ton. Vic la chn cc trm c s khc nhau th s
hnh thnh nn mng li gim st BKH khc nhau. Do vy cn phi nghin cu xy
dng c cc tiu ch la chn c trm c s, p ng y nht cc yu cu ca
vic xy dng mng li gim st BKH.
Qua nghin cu, phn tch nhm nghin cu thc hin ti a ra 3 tiu ch c
bn la chn trm c s nh sau:
-

Trm c thi gian quan trc di v lin tc (T 30 nm tr nn);

Khng hoc t chu s tc ng t cc hot ng kinh t, x hi ca con ngi,

khng b xm phm hnh lang;

Trong sut thi gian hot ng khng c s thay i thit b quan trc khc loi vi
thit b c hoc h hng.

Bng 1: Danh sch trm c s 7 vng kh hu trn lnh th Vit Nam

TT

Vng kh hu

Ty Bc (B1)

ng Bc (B2)

ng bng Bc
B (B3)

Bc Trung B
(B4)

Nam Trung B
(N1)

Ty Nguyn
(N2)

ng bng Nam
B (N3)

Trm

Kinh (m)

V (m)

Lai Chu
in Bin
Sn La
Mc Chu
Sa Pa
Yn Bi
H Giang
Tuyn Quang
Thi Nguyn
Lng Sn
Ha Bnh
Ph Lin
C T
Thi Bnh
Ninh Bnh
Hi Xun
Thanh Ha
Tng Dng
Vinh
Hng Kh
K Anh
ng Hi
Hu
Nng
Qung Ngi
Quy Nhn
Nha Trang
Phan Thit
Kon Tum
Lt
Bun Ma Thut
c Nng
Cn Th
Rch Gi
C Mau
Ph Quc

308982.642
292119.684
387264.359
463508.692
381984.437
489487.06
497126.002
521110.194
588839.622
681334.453
537616.75
666661.55
786959.603
640593.764
605140.048
514315.264
582128.568
443338.401
570698.459
576499.344
641299.37
669260.739
772928.648
844681.519
911265.706
954553.049
955974.039
838664.914
828419.288
876061.434
831511.306
793267.452
584862.989
511185.414
517448.71
386899.719

2443859.99
2352324.58
2354331.1
2298583.28
2472073.12
2398899.03
2526273.19
2412704.51
2382037.6
2417251.9
2294838.62
2292716.95
2314477.74
2254193.5
2231342.74
2245706.58
2185827.58
2115826.34
2050219.81
1997251.62
1976330.54
1916564.27
1802528.82
1759452.24
1659921.44
1514015.22
1351119.35
1208929.7
1567414.35
1315296.04
1390935.33
1323295.02
1110694.89
1110426.97
1022706.72
1124986.69

3. Tiu ch xut li trm kh tng gim st BKH

xy dng c li trm kh tng gim st BKH, cn a ra cc tiu ch
lm c s thit lp h thng li trm. Cc tiu ch ny bao gm:
-

Tiu ch m bo tnh cht ch v mc phn b trm, s phn ha v cc iu

kin kh hu. Tiu ch ny c nh gi thng qua h s tng quan R ca phng
trnh hi qui hm cu trc vi khong cch v c so snh vi h s tng quan
( l mc ngha, thng c chn l
)

Tiu ch m bo tin cy, tnh ng nht v ng hng ca trng s liu phn

tch. Tiu ch ny c nh gi thng qua h s hiu qu F ca phng trnh hi
qui hm cu trc vi khong cch v c so snh vi h s tng quan
( l
ch tiu Fisher vi mc ngha
)

4. xut li trm kh tng gim st BKH

Da trn c s l lun khoa hc v phng php D-S trong vic xy dng li trm
kh tng gim st BKH, bi bo tin hnh tnh ton hm cu trc cho cc yu t c
trng nh sau:
-

Tnh ton cc c trng thng k cho cc yu t c trng;

Tnh ton tr s hm cu trc cho chui s liu;

Tnh ton khong cch gia cc trm;

Xy dng tng quan khong cch gia cc trm vi tr s hm cu trc.

Trn c s cc tiu ch trn, s dng phng php th sai, kt hp vi chng trnh

tnh ton hm cu trc, bi bo la chn c h thng trm kh tng phc v cho
cng tc gim st BKH v phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc ca 2 yu t nhit v
lng ma trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X nh sau:
Bng 2: Trm gim st BKH cho 7 vng kh hu Vit Nam
TT

Vng kh hu

Ty Bc (B1)

ng Bc (B2)

ng bng Bc
B (B3)

Bc Trung B
(B4)

Nam Trung B
(N1)

Trm
Lai Chu
in Bin
Mc Chu
Yn Bi
H Giang
Tuyn Quang
Ha Bnh
Ph Lin
Thi Bnh
Tng Dng
K Anh
Hu
Nng
Quy Nhn
Nha Trang

Kinh (m)
308982.642
292119.684
463508.692
489487.06
497126.002
521110.194
537616.75
666661.55
640593.764
443338.401
641299.37
772928.648
844681.519
954553.049
955974.039

V (m)
2443859.99
2352324.58
2298583.28
2398899.03
2526273.19
2412704.51
2294838.62
2292716.95
2254193.5
2115826.34
1976330.54
1802528.82
1759452.24
1514015.22
1351119.35

Ty Nguyn
(N2)

ng bng Nam
B (N3)

Kon Tum
Lt
Bun Ma Thut
Rch Gi
C Mau
Cn Th

828419.288
876061.434
831511.306
511185.414
517448.71
584862.989

1567414.35
1315296.04
1390935.33
1110426.97
1022706.72
1110694.89

Bng 3: Trm gim st BKH cho 2 min kh hu Vit Nam

TT

Vng kh hu

M1

M2

Trm
Yn Bi
Ph Lin
Tng Dng
Hu
Nha Trang
Kon Tum
Cn Th

Kinh (m)
489487.06
666661.55
443338.401
772928.648
955974.039
828419.288
584862.989

V (m)
2398899.03
2292716.95
2115826.34
1802528.82
1351119.35
1567414.35
1110694.89

Bng 4: Phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X

ca yu t ma cho 2 min kh hu Vit Nam
Min

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

Thng
I

M1

M2

IV

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

-0.915

-0.707

VII

-0.791

-0.990

0.373

IV

0.447

VII

0.890

0.588

Bng 5: Phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X

ca yu t nhit cho 2 min kh hu Vit Nam
Min

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

Thng
I

M1

M2

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

-0.402

IV

-0.388

VII

-0.893

Khng t

-0.856

Khng t

0.971

IV

0.821

VII

0.962

0.997

T kt qu xc nh trm kh tng phc v gim st BKH, ti xut li

trm kh tng gim st BKH nh hnh sau:

Hnh 1: Li trm kh tng gim st BKH trn lnh th Vit Nam

5. Kt lun
Qua nghin cu ny, bi bo a ra mt s nhn xt nh sau:
-

a ra c s khoa hc v thc tin r rng, ng n cho vic xy dng li trm

kh tng gim st BKH; Bc u xy dng c b tiu ch la chn trm
kh tng gim st BKH;

Xc nh c cc trm kh tng gim st BKH cho 7 vng kh hu thuc lnh

th nc ta trn c s cc trm kh tng hin c;

xut c li trm kh tng gim st BKH i vi min kh hu trn lnh

th nc ta.
TI LIU THAM KHO

[1]. Nguyn Trng Hiu v nnk, 1987, Qui hoch li trm Kh tng Thy vn, ti
NCKH thuc Vin Kh tng Thy vn.