C S PHNG PHP LUN V B TIU CH KHOA HC

XY DNG LI TRM KH TNG GIM ST BIN I KH HU

1. C s khoa hc v thc tin.
1.1.

Nguyn tc v cc yu cu k thut cho bi ton quy hoch v xy

dng li trm gim st BKH

Quy hoch li trm l mt trong nhng cng tc quan trng ca ngnh

KTTV nhm gp phn gi vng, cng c v pht trin mng li quan trc, nng
cao hiu qu ca vic u t nhn lc, vt lc cho li trm, khng ngng hon
thin cht lng ca mi cng vic nghin cu v nghip v, thit thc phc v
sn xut v i sng.
Cng tc quy hoch li trm gim st BKH nc ta c tin hnh vi
nhng c im sau y:
-

Li trm nc ta c hnh thnh da trn nhng hiu bit v kinh

nghim ca cc chuyn gia KTTV vo cui th k 19, u th k 20. Cho
n nay, sau mt qu trnh b khuyt, iu chnh, chng ta c mt li
trm kh dy vi mt khi lng s liu phong ph, trong c kh nhiu
dy s liu di, kh d tin hnh nghin cu cc c tnh thng k ca
trng yu t KTTV, phc v trc tip cho vic hon chnh cc quy hoch
li trm gim st BKH trn c s xc nh cc ch tiu k thut.

Qu trnh xy dng v pht trin li trm nc ta gn lin vi qu trnh

xy dng v pht trin nn kinh t quc dn v quc phng. Li trm
KTTV thi Php thuc ch bao gm cc trm kh tng mt t (khng c
quan trc bc x), cc trm kh tng cao khng (khng c raa quan trc
thi tit), cc trm mc nc, Li trm KTTV ngy nay, ngoi cc trm
trn, cn c cc trm bc x, cc trm kh tng nng nghip, cc trm
raa, cc trm dng chy, V vy trong cng tc quy hoch li trm
gim st BKH, ngoi vic xc nh cc ch tiu k thut v mt li
trm v thi gian quan trc, cn c vic phn nh loi trm v hng
trm.

Xy dng li trm gim st BKH gn cht vi nhng yu cu v trang b,

thit b, v c s vt cht. Hot ng ca li trm gim st BKH lin
quan mt thit vi trnh kinh t - k thut ca x hi, trc ht l giao
thng vn ti, thng tin lin lc, V vy, cng tc quy hoch khng hon
ton ph thuc vo nhu cu thu thp thng tin KTTV, nht l min ni,
cc khu c iu kin a l phc tp.

Li trm KTTV ang hot ng c t chc, c hiu qu nh ngy nay l

thnh qu to ln ca ngnh KTTV. Tuy vy, khi trnh khoa hc k thut
c nng cao, khi hiu bit ca chng ta ngy cng tip cn vi chn l
khch quan cn phi c nhng pht hin nhm thay i mt s chi tit
trong c cu li trm. Song, trn thc t, ch mt vi thay i no
c coi l cn thit sau khi tnh ton, cn nhc k lng li ch v thit
hi ca cc thay i d kin. Chng ti cho rng qu trnh thc hin nhng
thay i c phi thc s l qu trnh hp l ha li trm gim st BKH.

Nh vy, ni dung c bn ca cng tc quy hoch li trm gim st

BKH nc ta ngy nay l hp l ha li trm hin c. Cng vic hp l ha
cn thit c tin hnh theo nhng nguyn tc sau y:
-

Bo m tnh khoa hc ca li trm.

Phc v c lc cc ngnh kinh t quc dn v quc phng.

K tha, bo v c cu ch yu v tnh hp l ca li trm hin c.

Tn trng hon cnh thc t, trc ht l iu kin kinh t k thut lin

quan n vic duy tr hot ng ca mi mt trm, nht l trm min ni
v trm hi o.

to iu kin thun li cho vic hp l ha li trm gim st BKH

theo nhng nguyn tc trn, phi c nhng khu chun b cn thit, bao gm
mt s nghin cu khoa hc nhm xc nh ch tiu k thut ca li trm gim
st BKH v nhng phn tch nh tnh v s sp xp hoc t chc li trm .
Theo chng ti, nhng khu chun b bc thit nht bao gm:
-

Hon thin vic phn nh loi trm hin c.

Phn nh mt s hng trm trong mi mt loi trm.

Xc nh ch tiu mt cho mt s loi trm trn mt s khu vc.

Xc nh mt s ch tiu k thut khc, ngoi mt , cho mt s loi

trm.

Kt qu ca cc khu cng tc chun b ni trn c coi l c s ca vic

hp l ha li trm gim st BKH bao gm cc ni dung chnh sau y:
-

i chiu cc ch tiu k thut vi hin trng ca tng loi trm gim st

BKH.

Pht hin nhng tn ti trong mi mt loi trm hin ti.

Kin ngh iu chnh mt trm thng qua vic gii th mt s trm

khng tiu chun tn ti v thnh lp mt s trm cn thit.

xy dng c h thng mng li trm hp l cn tnh ton, phn tch

cc mi quan h thng k gia cc trm hin ti, lm c s cho vic thm, bt
trm. Vic loi b hay thm trm cn c cc tiu ch chun, tiu ch ny c xy
dng t cc trm nn. Trm nn l trm c chn ra t h thng mng li
trm hin c, nhng phi m bo cc yu cu chnh sau:
-

Trm c thi gian quan trc di v lin tc (T 30 nm tr nn);

Khng hoc t chu s tc ng t cc hot ng kinh t, x hi ca con

ngi;

Trong sut thi gian hot ng khng c s thay i thit b quan trc
khc loi vi thit b c hoc h hng.

T vic phn tch cc tiu ch c cn c v c s loi b hoc thm

trm, vn ny sinh l v tr s t trm mi. V tr ny c xc nh thng
qua nhng tiu ch chnh sau:

V tr c chn phi th hin r s phn ha ca kh hu, thy vn. Yu

t ch o thy c s phn ha ny ch yu da vo iu kin a
hnh, hng gi ch o, ch ma v ch nhit.

p ng c cc yu cu pht trin kinh t - x hi. Da vo bn hin

trng v bn quy hoch tng th pht tin kinh t - x hi theo cc thi
k.

Quy phm xy dng trm chung.

1.2.

Hm cu trc trong bi ton quy hoch v xy dng li trm gim

st BKH

1.2.1. Hm ngu nhin

Lin quan trc tip vi vic s dng hm cu trc l vic tha nhn khi
nim v hm ngu nhin v mt s c trng ca hm ny. K hiu hm ngu
nhin l X v i s ca chng l t, s
Gi s, gi tr ca i s t bao gm:t1, t2, , tn
Khi , gi tr ca hm ngu nhin tng ng l:X(t1), X(t2), , X(tn)
1.2.2. Qu trnh ngu nhin
Vi i s l thi gian, ly cc gi tr lin tc, hm ngu nhin c gi l
qu trnh ngu nhin. Vi i s l ta khng gian v thi gian, hm ngu
nhin c gi l trng ngu nhin.
1.2.3. Trng ngu nhin
Trng ngu nhin c vit di dng U(x, y, z, t), trong x, y, z l ta
khng gian v t l thi gian. C th quan nim x, y, z, t l ta ca vc t 4
chiu (x, y, z, t). Khi , trng ngu nhin c vit l U( ).
Cc c trng ch yu ca trng ngu nhin l:
-

K vng ton hc mu( ):

Phng sai
ngu nhin trung tm ha.

Hm tng quan Ru(

Hm tng quan tiu chun ru(

, trong ( ) = U( ) mu( )gi l trng

) = M { (

) . (

)}

Khi trng ng nht v ng hng, k vng ton hc v phng sai l

hng s cn hm tng quan l hm ca khong cch gia hai i s (1)
mu( ) = C1
Uu( ) = C2
(1)
Trong

1.2.4. Hm cu trc
Mt trong nhng c trng quan trng ca trng ngu nhin ng nht v
ng hng l hm cu trc
. l k vng ton hc ca bnh phng hiu
sai gia hai gi tr ca trng ngu nhin ti hai gi tr tng ng ca i s:

Hm cu trc trit tiu khi khong cch gia hai i s bng khng:

Quan h gia hm cu trc v hm tng quan c biu th nh sau:

Khi trng ngu nhin ng nht v ng hng th hm cu trc tha

mn:

Trng ngu nhin ca i lng gn mt t l hm ngu nhin vi 3 i

s:x l v , y l kinh v t l thi gian.

i vi trng mt t

Ngi ta phn bit hai loi hm cu trc.

-

Hm cu trc thi gian

Hm cu trc khng gian

Khi trng mt t l ng nht v ng hng, th cu trc khng gian

tha mn:

1.2.5. Hm cu trc trong quy hoch li trm

Mt trong nhng ng dng quan trng ca hm cu trc l quy hoch li
trm theo phng php D S.
Phng php D S xut pht t ng li chung ca vic quy hoch li
trm l: phi xc nh mt trm kh tng ti thiu trn c s bo m thu
thp y thng tin KTTV trn lnh th.
Vic thu thp thng tin phi mang li s hiu bit chnh xc v trng kh
tng, thy vn. chnh xc c nh gi theo nhng tiu chun khc
nhau, ty thuc quan im ca ngi nghin cu quy hoch li trm.Theo phng
php D S, tiu chun ca chnh xc ni trn l: sai s thng k ca vic ni
suy tuyn tnh cho im gia hai trm k cn khng vt qua mt tr s c
ngha cho trc.

Nh vy khi xc nh sai s cho php (kh hiu l ) c th tnh c

mt trm. Hn na, mt trm thc cht l khong cch gia cc trm k
cn. Cho nn vic xc nh mt trm c thay th bng vic c lng
khong cch cho php (k hiu l dp) gia hai trm k cn.
Trn c s , bi ton quy hoch c vch ra nh sau: Cho trc mt
gi tr sai s cho php, hy xc nh khong cch ln nht cho php gia hai
trm k cn sao cho sai s tiu chun ca vic ni suy tuyn tnh cho im gia
hai trm khng vt qua sai s cho php.
Bi ton trn c gii nh sau:
Gi s hai trm mt t k cn l I v J ln lt c ta l
Khi , khong cch l gia chng l:

Chn ta mt chiu () c phng trng vi phng ca on thng ni

hai trm I v J.
Ly ta ca I l . Khi , ta ca J l
. Mt im X bt k trn
on thng , vi ta + c gi tr ni suy tuyn tnh theo hai trm I v J
v chun sai ca yu t ( = - ) l:
(

Gi s sai s quan trc ca i lng kh tng ti trm I v J ln lt l

v
. Khi , sai s ca php ni suy tuyn tnh cho im X bt k gia
hai trm k cn l :

{(

Gi s sai s quan trc ca cc yu t c cc tnh cht sau y:

-

Tnh cht 1: Trung bnh s hc ca sai s quan trc bng 0

Tnh cht 2: Sai s quan trc khng tng quan vi tr s yu t

Tnh cht 3: Sai s quan trc gia cc trm khng tng quan nhau

y,

trm

l sai s quan trc tiu chun.

Vi gi nh trn, hm cu trc khng gian thu c trong thc t gia hai

v
l:
{[

]}

Khi sai s quan trc tiu chun trn cc trm u nh nhau:

( )

( )
Khi

im gia hai trm k cn

vi khong cch

Sai s ca php ni suy tuyn tnh cho im gia hai trm l:

l cng thc xut pht ca cc tnh ton c th nhm xc nh mt

li trm.
1.3.

Tnh ton hm cu trc phc v quy hoch v xy dng li trm

gim st BKH

1.3.1. Mc ch ch yu ca vic tnh ton tr s hm cu trc

Mc ch ch yu ca vic tnh ton tr s hm cu trc y l s dng s
liu c ca li trm KTTV hin nay vo vic xc nh mt trm theo phng
php D-S.
1.3.2. Ni dung tnh ton.
Nhm p ng yu cu ca vic nghin cu hm cu trc phc v quy
hoch li trm, nghin cu tin hnh 3 bc tnh ton sau y:
a) Bc 1: Tnh ton tr s hm cu trc v cc c trng lin quan:
-

Trung bnh s hc ca c trng yu t f ti trm I

Trong

l tr s ca f ti trm I v nm t

Chun sai ca f ti trm I vo nm t

lch tiu chun ca f ti trm I

Tr s hm cu trc gia trm I v trm J

[

Tr s hm cu trc tiu chun gia trm I v trm J

(

Tr s hm tng quan tiu chun gia trm I v trm J

b) Bc 2: Lp hm hi quy tuyn tnh gia bf v l

trong :

y:

l tr s hm cu trc ca cp trm th j (j = 1, N);

l khong

cch gia cp trm th j.

c) Bc 3: Kim nghim mc r rt ca h s tng quan tuyn tnh v

hiu qu ca phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh gia bf v l
Kim nghim mc r rt ca h s tng quan tuyn tnh r gia bf v l

H s tng quan r c tha nhn l r rt khi r khng b hn tr s

tiu chun vi mc tin cy .
Kim nghim hiu qu ca phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh gia bf v l
Lp t s F:

Trong : U l tng bnh phng hi qui:

Q l tng bnh phng thng d:

F c phn phi F vi t do l (1; n-2). V vy, hiu qu ca phng

trnh hi quy c chp nhn khi F khng b hn tr s
(1; n-2), tiu chun
vi mc tin cy .

Tnh ton lch chun ca cc h s hi quy

-

lch chun ca h s

Trong :
-

lch chun ca

Bin sut ca h s hi quy

Bin sut ca h s hi quy

Tnh sai s quan trc tiu chun

2. Tnh ton quy hoch v xy dng li trm kh tng gim st BKH

2.1.

La chn trm nn v yu t kh tng c trng

Trm nn c hiu l trm c la chn xy dng cc tiu ch c bn

dng so snh, nh gi cc trm khc vi trm nn .Tc l cc gi tr, cc
c trng ca trm nn l chun, t hoc gn nh khng thay i trong cc iu
kin khc nhau, v phn nh ng tnh ngu nhin ca i lng nghin cu.
i vi bi ton gim st BBKH th vic la chn trm nn rt quan
trng, n quyt nh ti kt qu ng sai ca bi ton. Vic la chn cc trm
nn khc nhau th s hnh thnh nn mng li gim st BKH khc nhau. Do
vy cn phi nghin cu xy dng c cc tiu ch la chn c trm nn,
p ng y nht cc yu cu ca vic xy dng mng li gim st BKH.
Qua nghin cu, phn tch nhm nghin cu thc hin ti a ra 3
tiu ch c bn la chn trm nn nh sau:
-

Trm c thi gian quan trc di v lin tc (T 30 nm tr nn);

Khng hoc t chu s tc ng t cc hot ng kinh t, x hi ca con

ngi, khng b xm phm hnh lang;

Trong sut thi gian hot ng khng c s thay i thit b quan trc
khc loi vi thit b c hoc h hng.

Trn c s cc tiu ch trn, cn c theo bo co y v hin trng

mng li KTTV ca 9 i khu vc: Vit Bc, Ty Bc, ng Bc, ng Bng Bc
B, Bc Trung B, Trung Trung B, Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B,
ti xc nh c cc trm nn cho 7 vng kh hu nh sau:

Bng 1: Danh sch trm nn 7 vng kh hu trn lnh th Vit Nam

TT

Vng kh hu

Ty Bc (B1)

Trm

ng Bc (B2)

ng bng Bc
B (B3)

Bc Trung B
(B4)

308982.642

2443859.99

in Bin

292119.684

2352324.58

Sn La

387264.359

2354331.1

Mc Chu

463508.692

2298583.28

Sa Pa

381984.437

2472073.12

489487.06

2398899.03

H Giang

497126.002

2526273.19

Tuyn Quang

521110.194

2412704.51

Thi Nguyn

588839.622

2382037.6

Lng Sn

681334.453

2417251.9

Ha Bnh

537616.75

2294838.62

Ph Lin

666661.55

2292716.95

C T

786959.603

2314477.74

Thi Bnh

640593.764

2254193.5

Ninh Bnh

605140.048

2231342.74

Hi Xun

514315.264

2245706.58

Thanh Ha

582128.568

2185827.58

Tng Dng

443338.401

2115826.34

Vinh

570698.459

2050219.81

Hng Kh

576499.344

1997251.62

641299.37

1976330.54

ng Hi

669260.739

1916564.27

Hu

772928.648

1802528.82

Nng

844681.519

1759452.24

Qung Ngi

911265.706

1659921.44

Quy Nhn

954553.049

1514015.22

Nha Trang

955974.039

1351119.35

Phan Thit

838664.914

1208929.7

Kon Tum

828419.288

1567414.35

Lt

876061.434

1315296.04

Bun Ma Thut

831511.306

1390935.33

c Nng

793267.452

1323295.02

Cn Th

584862.989

1110694.89

Rch Gi

511185.414

1110426.97

517448.71

1022706.72

386899.719

1124986.69

K Anh

Nam Trung B
(N1)

Ty Nguyn
(N2)

ng bng Nam
B (N3)

V (m)

Lai Chu

Yn Bi
2

Kinh (m)

C Mau
Ph Quc

Qua kt qu phn tch v qui lut din bin ca mt s yu t kh tng,

thy vn, hi vn trong bi cnh BKH trong sn phm: Bo co tng kt v
qui lut din bin ca mt s yu t kh tng, thy vn, hi vn trong bi cnh
BKH, ti la chn 2 yu t c trng l: nhit v lng ma xy
dng hm cu trc, nh gi v xy dng mng li trm gim st BKH. Thi
k ti la chn tnh ton l ng nht vi tt c cc trm, tnh t nm 1971
n 2010.
2.2.

Xy dng chng trnh tnh ton hm cu trc

Da trn c s khoa hc v thc tin trong vic quy hoch li trm v

xy dng mng li gim st BKH, ti tin hnh tnh ton hm cu trc cho
cc yu t c trng nh sau:
-

Tnh ton cc c trng thng k cho cc yu t c trng;

Tnh ton tr s hm cu trc cho chui s liu;

Tnh ton khong cch gia cc trm;

Xy dng tng quan khong cch gia cc trm vi tr s hm cu trc.

Vi b s liu ca nhit , lng ma, ta UTM, ti s dng ngn

ng lp trnh FORTRAN xy dng chng trnh tnh ton hm cu trc, code
chng trnh tnh ton hm cu trc nh sau:
Character
input(7)*50,Tram(7,80)*15,M(12)*3,Bien*
3
Character inputGS(7)*50,
TramGS(7,80)*15, CSM(12)*4,output*50
IntegerFlat,tst(7),Y(55),Ln,ytam,D(31),h,ta
m, TGS(7),cs, str,f,k,nF, TDo(7,12)
Real SLN(7,80,55,31,12), KD(7,80),
VD(7,80), l(7,80,80),FGS(7,12), TB(7,12)
Real deltaf(7,80,55,12),s(7,80,12),
bf(7,80,80,12), btam
Real sfGS(7,80,12), TBfGS(7,80,12),
deltaGS(7,80,55,12)
Real a(7,12), b(7,12), lTB(7), bfTB(7,12),
r(7,12), Fsh(50)
Real
L(7,80,55,12),TBT(7,80,12),TONGT(7,80,1
2),Fo(7,12), DTD(50)
! Nhap bien can tinh toan
Print*, 'Nhap dai luong can tinh:'
Print*, 'R: Luong mua ngay'
Print*, 'T2m: Nhiet do trung binh ngay'
1 Read*, Bien
Ln = Len(Trim(Bien))
! Tao file dau vao va dau ra
If ((Bien.eq.'R').OR.(Bien.eq.'T2m')) then
DATAinput(1:7)/'_B1.DAT','_B2.DAT','_B3.
DAT','_B4.DAT','_N1.DAT','_N2.DAT','_N3.D
AT'/
DATA
inputGS(1:7)/'Vung1.DAT','Vung2.DAT','Vu
ng3.DAT','Vung4.DAT','Vung5.DAT','Vung6.
DAT','Vung7.DAT'/

DATA
CSM/'I','II','III','VI','V','VI','VII','VIII','IX','X'
,'XI','XII'/
Do i=1,7
input(i) =
Bien(1:Ln)//'\'//Bien(1:Ln)//input(i)output
='Hamcautruc_'//Bien(1:Ln)//'.DAT'
Enddo
Else
Print*
Print*,'Dai luong vua nhap khong dung'
Print*,'Vui long nhap lai dai luong can tinh'
Print*,'-------------------------------'
Goto 1
Endif
! Mo file va doc so lieu
Do f=1,7
tst(f)=0.
Open(1, file = input(f), status = 'Unknown')
str=1
2
Read(1,*, End=100) Flat, Tram(f,str)
If(Flat.eq.7777)then
Read(1,*) ytam,(M(j),j=1,12)
! Xu ly nan dau tien la 1957
If(ytam.eq.1956) then
Y(1)=ytam
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,1,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
n=2
tam=n
! Xu ly nam bi khuyet
3
Read(1,*) Y(n),(M(j),j=1,12)
If (Y(n).lt.2007) then

cs=Y(n)-Y(n-1)
If(cs.eq.1)then
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,n,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
n=n+1
tam=n
Goto 3
Else
n=n+cs-1
Do h=tam,n-1
Do i=1,31
Do j=1,12
SLN(f,str,h,i,j)=-99
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,n,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
n=n+1
tam=n
Goto 3
Endif
Else
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,n,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
str=str+1
Goto 2
Endif
Else
! Xu ly nam dau tien khong phai la 1958
cs=50-(2007-ytam)
Do h=1,cs-1
Do i=1,31
Do j=1,12
SLN(f,str,h,i,j)=-99
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
Y(cs)=ytam
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,cs,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
n=cs+1
tam=n
! Xu ly nam bi khuyet
4
Read(1,*) Y(n),(M(j),j=1,12)
If (Y(n).lt.2007) then
cs=Y(n)-Y(n-1)
If(cs.eq.1)then
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,n,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
n=n+1
tam=n
Goto 4
Else
n=n+cs-1
Do h=tam,n-1
Do i=1,31

Do j=1,12
SLN(f,str,h,i,j)=-99
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,n,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
n=n+1
tam=n
Goto 4
Endif
Else
Do i=1,31
Read(1,*) D(i), (SLN(f,str,n,i,j),j=1,12)
Enddo
str=str+1
Goto 2
Endif
Endif
Endif
100 Close(1)
tst(f) = str-1
Enddo
! Tinh trung binh thang cho mot nam
Do f=1,7
Do str = 1, tst(f)
Do n=1,50
Do j=1,12
h=1
Do i=1,31
If(SLN(f,str,n,i,j).ne.-99) then
SL(f,str,n,j)=SL(f,str,n,j)+SLN(f,str,n
,i,j)
h=h+1
Endif
Enddo
h=h-1
If(h.ne.0)then
SL(f,str,n,j)=SL(f,str,n,j)/Real(h)
Else
SL(f,str,n,j)=-99
Endif
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
! Trung binh thang nhieu nam
Do f=1,7
Do str = 1, tst(f)
i=1
Do j = 1,12
Do n=1,50
If (SL(f,str,n,j).ne.-99) then
TONGT(f,str,j) =
TONGT(f,str,j)+SL(f,str,n,j)
i=i+1
Endif
Enddo
TBT(f,str,j) = TONGT(f,str,j)/Real(i-1)
Enddo
Enddo

Enddo
! Tinh chuan sai cua tram
deltaf = 0.
Do f=1,7
Do str = 1, tst(f)
Do j = 1, 12
Do n=1,50
If(SL(f,str,n,j).ne.-99) then
deltaf(f,str,n,j) = SL(f,str,n,j) - TBT(f,str,j)
Else
deltaf(f,str,n,j)=0.
Endif
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
! Tinh do lech tieu chuan
s = 0.
Do f=1,7
Do str = 1, tst(f)
dem = 1
Do j=1,12
Do n=1,50
If(deltaf(f,str,n,j).ne.0)then
s(f,str,j) = s(f,str,j) + (deltaf(f,str,n,j) TBT(f,str,j))*(deltaf(f,str,n,j) - TBT(f,str,j))
dem = dem + 1
Endif
Enddo
dem = dem-1
If(dem.ne.0) s(f,str,j) =
sqrt(s(f,str,j)/real(dem))
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
! Nhap tram giam sat BDKH
Do f=1,7
Open (3, file = inputGS(f), status =
'unknown')
Read (3,*)
dem=1
6
Read (3,*, End = 7) TramGS (f,dem),
KD(f,dem), VD(f,dem)
dem=dem+1
Goto 6
7
Close(3)
TGS(f)=dem-1
Enddo
! Tinh khoang cach giua cac cap tram
Do f=1,7
Do i=1, TGS(f)-1
Do j = i+1, TGS(f)
l(f,i,j) = sqrt((KD(f,i)-KD(f,j))*(KD(f,i)KD(f,j)) + (VD(f,i)-VD(f,j))*(VD(f,i)VD(f,j)))
l(f,i,j) = l(f,i,j)/1000
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
! Xac dinh so lieu cho tram giam sat BDKH
Do f=1,7
Do j= 1, TGS(f)

Do i=1, tst(f)
If (Tram(f,i).eq.TramGS(f,j))then
Do k=1,12
sfGS(f,j,k) = s(f,i,k)
TBfGS(f,j,k)= TBT(f,i,k)
Do n=1, 50
deltaGS(f,j,n,k) = deltaf(f,i,n,k)
Enddo
Enddo
Endif
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
Do f=1,7
Do j=1,12
dem = 1
Do str = 1, tst(f)
Do n=1,50
TB(f,j) = TB(f,j) + deltaf(f,str,n,j)
dem = dem+1
Enddo
Enddo
TB(f,j) = TB(f,j)/Real(dem-1)
TDo(f,j) = dem-2
Enddo
Enddo
! Tri so ham cau truc giua 2 tram
Do f=1,7
Do k=1,12
Do i=1, TGS(f)-1
Do j = i+1, TGS(f)
dem = 1
Do
n=1,50If((deltaGS(f,i,n,k).ne.0).AND.(delta
GS(f,j,n,k).ne.0)) then
Btam = (deltaGS(f,i,n,k)-TBfGS(f,i,k))(deltaGS(f,j,n,k)-TBfGS(f,j,k))
bf(f,i,j,k) = bf(f,i,j,k) + btam*btam
dem = dem+1
Endif
Enddo
dem = dem-1
! TDo(f,k) = dem-2
If(dem.gt.0) bf(f,i,j,k) =
bf(f,i,j,k)/Real(dem)
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
Enddo
! Xac dinh he so tuong quan
Do f=1,7
Do k=1,12
dem = 0.
Do i=1, TGS(f)-1
Do j=i+1, TGS(f)
bfTB(f,k) = bfTB(f,k) + bf(f,i,j,k)
lTB(f) = lTB(f) + l(f,i,j)
dem = dem+1
Enddo
Enddo
If(dem.gt.0) bfTB(f,k) =
bfTB(f,k)/Real(dem)

If(dem.gt.0) lTB(f) = lTB(f)/Real(dem)

Tam1=0.
Tam2=0.
Tam3=0.
Tam4=0.
Do i=1,TGS(f)-1
Do j=i+1,TGS(f)
Tam1 = Tam1 + (bf(f,i,j,k)bfTB(f,k))*(l(f,i,j)-lTB(f))
Tam2 = Tam2 + (l(f,i,j)-lTB(f))*(l(f,i,j)lTB(f))
Tam3 = Tam3 + (bf(f,i,j,k)bfTB(f,k))*(bf(f,i,j,k)-bfTB(f,k))
Tam4 = Tam4 + (bf(f,i,j,k)TB(f,k))*(bf(f,i,j,k)-TB(f,k))
Enddo
Enddo
b(f,k) = Tam1/Tam2
a(f,k) = bfTB(f,k) - b(f,k)*lTB(f)
r(f,k) = Tam1/(sqrt(Tam2*Tam3))
FGS(f,k) = (TDo(f,k)*Tam3)/Tam4
Enddo
Enddo
! Danh gia hieu qua cua phuong trinh hoi
qui
Open(1, file = 'Bang tra F5%.Fsh', status =
'unknown')
Read(1,*)
Read(1,*)
dem = 1
49
Read(1,*, End = 50) DTD(dem),
Fsh(dem)
dem = dem + 1
Goto 49
50
Close(1)
nF=dem-1
Do f=1,7
Do k =1,12
DT = TDo(f,k)
Call nsuy(DTD,Fsh,nF,DT,Fsho)
Fo(f,k) = Fsho
Enddo
Enddo
! In ket qua tren man hinh
Print*
Print*,'Phuong trinh tuong quan tuyen tinh
ham cau truc voi khoang cach'
Print*
Do f=1,7
Print 102, f
102 Format(2x, 'Vung', 1x, I1)
Print*
Print 104

2.3.

104 Format(2x,'Thang',2x,'*',3x, 'He so

a',2x,'*', 3x,'He so b',4x,'*', 2x, 'He so
R',2x,'*',2x,'Phan phoi F',2x,'*',2x,'So voi
F(5%)')
Print*, '---------------------------------'
Do k=1,12
If (ABS(FGS(f,k)).ge.Fo(f,k)) then
Print 105, CSM(k), a(f,k), b(f,k), r(f,k),
FGS(f,k)
105 Format (2x, A4, 3x, '*', 1x, F9.2,
2x,'*',2x,F9.4,3x,'*',2x, F6.3,
3x,'*',3x,F7.2,5x,'*',3x,'Dat')
Print*, '---------------------------------------'
Else
Print 106, CSM(k), a(f,k), b(f,k), r(f,k),
FGS(f,k)
106 Format (2x, A4, 3x, '*', 1x, F9.2,
2x,'*',2x,F9.4,3x,'*',2x, F6.3,
3x,'*',3x,F7.2,5x,'*',3x,'Khong dat')
Print*, '---------------------------------------'
Endif
Enddo
Enddo
! Ghi ket qua
Open(2, file = output, status = 'unknown')
Write(2,*)
Write(2,*) 'Phuong trinh tuong quan tuyen
tinh ham cau truc'
Write(2,*)
Do f=1,7
Write(2,102) f
Write(2,*)
Write(2,104)
Write(2,*) '--------------------'
Do k=1,12
If (ABS(FGS(f,k)).ge.Fo(f,k)) then
Write(2,105) CSM(k), a(f,k), b(f,k), r(f,k),
FGS(f,k)
Write(2,*) '-----------------------------------'
Else
Write(2,106) CSM(k), a(f,k), b(f,k), r(f,k),
FGS(f,k)
Write(2,*) '-----------------------------------'
Endif
Enddo
Write(2,*)
Enddo
Close(2)
End
Include 'nsuymotchieu.for'

Tiu ch v s phn b mt li trm kh tng gim st BKH

xy dng c li trm kh tng gim st BKH, cn a ra cc tiu

ch lm c s thit lp h thng li trm. Cc tiu ch ny bao gm:
-

Tiu ch m bo tnh cht ch v mc phn b trm, s phn ha v cc

iu kin kh hu. Tiu ch ny c nh gi thng qua h s tng quan R

ca phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc vi khong cch v c so snh vi

h s tng quan
( l mc ngha, thng c chn l
)
-

Tiu ch m bo tin cy, tnh ng nht v ng hng ca trng s

liu phn tch. Tiu ch ny c nh gi thng qua h s hiu qu F ca
phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc vi khong cch v c so snh vi h
s tng quan
( l ch tiu Fisher vi mc ngha
)

Trn c s cc tiu ch trn, s dng phng php th sai, kt hp vi

chng trnh tnh ton hm cu trc, ti xy dng cc phng n la chn
trm trn c s cc trm nn trong Bng 1. Kt qu nh gi cc phng n la
chn trm nh sau:
Bng 2: Phng n t hp trm cho yu t lng ma
Vng
kh
hu

B1

B2

B3

B4

N1

N2

N3

T hp
la
chn
trm

Lng ma
H s R

F so vi F (

IV

VII

IV

VII

.837

-.142

.484

.681

.784

-.362

.305

.524

.249

-.094

.031

.101

.730

-.162

.048

.255

.743

.784

.463

.716

.918

.325

.543

.348

.661

.092

.819

.336

.487

.128

.755

.459

-.708

.607

.593

.588

.620

.461

.422

.781

.761

.426

.316

.774

.638

.512

.594

.732

.979

.758

.863

.836

.479

.100

.767

.444

-.926

.711

.596

.508

.405

-.042

.499

.878

.886

.579

.288

.836

.894

.418

.373

.563

.573

-.319

.453

.852

.042

.621

-.112

.728

.783

.702

.276

.849

.613

.561

.380

.018

Bng 3: Phng n t hp trm cho yu t nhit

Vng
kh
hu

B1

B2

B3

Nhit

T hp
la
chn
trm

IV

VII

IV

VII

.636

.794

.826

.835

.676

.530

.526

.518

.820

.308

.381

.334

.854

.462

.524

.471

.413

.498

.589

.497

.987

-.468

.374

.321

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

.647

.852

-.280

.587

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

.710

.817

-.522

.871

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

.996

.606

-.403

.443

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

.069

.104

.108

.019

.741

.447

.329

.564

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

.682

-.998

-.602

-.588

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

.983

.317

-.658

-.441

Khng
t

Khng
t

.863

.827

-.945

.871

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

-.083

.131

.163

-.169

-.459

-.109

-.327

-.234

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

-.285

-.007

-.315

-.055

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

-.789

.311

-.290

.252

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

-.296

-.154

-.186

-.207

.180

-.111

-.107

-.134

-.141

-.568

-.418

-.725

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

-.981

-.444

-.363

-.608

Khng
t

Khng
t

Khng
t

H s R

B4

N1

N2

F so vi F (

N3

T kt qu bng 2 v bng 3, phn tch i chiu vi Bo co tng kt

v qui lut din bin ca mt s yu t kh tng, thy vn, hi vn trong bi
cnh BKH, ti la chn c h thng trm kh tng phc v cho cng
tc gim st BKH (nh trong bng 4) v phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc ca
2 yu t nhit v lng ma trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X (nh trong bng 5,
bng 6).

Bng 4: Trm gim st BKH cho cc vng kh hu Vit Nam

TT
1

Vng kh hu

Trm

Ty Bc (B1)

ng Bc (B2)

ng bng Bc
B (B3)
Bc Trung B
(B4)

308982.642

2443859.99

in Bin

292119.684

2352324.58

Mc Chu

463508.692

2298583.28

489487.06

2398899.03

H Giang

497126.002

2526273.19

Tuyn Quang

521110.194

2412704.51

Ha Bnh

537616.75

2294838.62

Ph Lin

666661.55

2292716.95

Thi Bnh

640593.764

2254193.5

Tng Dng

443338.401

2115826.34

641299.37

1976330.54

Hu

772928.648

1802528.82

Nng

844681.519

1759452.24

Quy Nhn

954553.049

1514015.22

Nha Trang

955974.039

1351119.35

Kon Tum

828419.288

1567414.35

Lt

876061.434

1315296.04

Bun Ma Thut

831511.306

1390935.33

Rch Gi

K Anh

Nam Trung B
(N1)
Ty Nguyn
(N2)
ng bng Nam
B (N3)

V (m)

Lai Chu

Yn Bi
2

Kinh (m)

511185.414

1110426.97

C Mau

517448.71

1022706.72

Cn Th

584862.989

1110694.89

Bng 5: Phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X

ca yu t nhit cho cc vng kh hu Vit Nam
Vng

Thng
I

B1

B3

B4

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

0.676

IV

0.530

VII

0.526

0.518

I
B2

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

0.987

IV

-0.468

Khng t

VII

0.374

Khng t

0.321

Khng t

0.996

IV

0.606

Khng t

VII

-0.403

Khng t

0.443

Khng t

-0.083

IV

0.131

VII

0.163

-0.169

Vng

Thng
I

N1

N2

N3

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

-0.789

Khng t

IV

0.311

Khng t

VII

-0.290

Khng t

0.252

Khng t

-0.955

IV

-0.290

VII

-0.247

-0.275

-0.981

IV

-0.444

Khng t

VII

-0.363

Khng t

-0.608

Khng t

Bng 6: Phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X

ca yu t ma cho cc vng kh hu Vit Nam
Vng

Thng
I

B1

B3

B4

N2

F so vi F
(
)

0.784

-0.362

VII

0.305

0.524

0.995

IV

0.519

VII

0.658

0.663

-0.708

IV

0.607

VII

0.593

0.588

-0.926

IV

0.711

VII

0.596

N1

H s R

IV
X

B2

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

0.508

0.894

IV

0.418

VII

0.373

0.852

IV

0.042

VII

0.621

-0.112

0.563

Vng

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

Thng
I

N3

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

0.849

IV

0.613

VII

0.561

0.380

Vi cc kt qu nhn c cho 7 vng kh hu, nhm nghin cu tnh

ton, la chn cho 2 min kh hu (Min Bc v Min Nam). Kt qu nh sau:
Bng 7: Phng n t hp trm cho yu t lng ma
Min
kh
hu

T hp
la
chn
trm

Ma
I

IV

VII

IV

VII

12

.300

.069

.116

.498

11

F so vi F (

H s R

.311

.160

.166

.495

10

.304

.115

.137

.505

.393

.202

.203

.420

.421

.056

.244

.480

.432

.127

.245

.542

.561

-.184

.502

.636

M
M1

M2

.547

.124

.271

.340

-.915

-.707

-.791

-.990

.501

.510

.536

.418

0.095

0.093

0.191

0.129

0.036

0.125

0.214

0.150

0.327

0.308

0.180

0.169

0.142

0.236

0.281

0.272

0.333

0.127

0.456

0.313

0.429

0.544

0.459

0.464

0.373

0.447

0.890

0.588

Bng 8: Phng n t hp trm cho yu t lng nhit

Min
kh
hu

M1

M2

T hp
la
chn
trm
12
11
10
9
8
M
7
6
5

Nhit
F so vi F (

H s R

IV

VII

IV

VII

.176
.212
.198
-.070
.425
.519
.540
.528

.277
.292
.282
-.167
.384
.446
.496
.275

.295
.289
.288
-.041
.437
.480
.531
.535

.036
.043
.026
-.168
.478
.554
.607
.394

t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t

t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t

-.402

-.388

-.893

-.856

t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
Khng
t

.421

-.287

.277

.366

Khng
t

t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
Khng
t
Khng
t

0.107

0.032

0.368

0.156

Min
kh
hu

T hp
la
chn
trm

Nhit
I

IV

VII

IV

VII

0.152

0.145

0.199

0.163

0.196

0.211

0.438

0.312

0.298

0.220

0.326

0.354

0.354

0.528

0.383

0.279

0.593

0.859

0.439

0.634

0.971

0.821

0.962

0.997

F so vi F (

H s R

T kt qu trong bng 7 v bng 8, ti la chn c h thng trm

kh tng phc v cho cng tc gim st BKH trn lnh th Vit Nam (nh
trong bng 9) v phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc ca 2 yu t nhit v
lng ma trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X (nh trong bng 10, bng 11).
Bng 9: Trm gim st BKH cho cc vng kh hu Vit Nam
TT

Vng kh hu

M1

M2

Trm
Yn Bi
Ph Lin
Tng Dng
Hu
Nha Trang
Kon Tum
Cn Th

Kinh (m)
489487.06
666661.55
443338.401
772928.648
955974.039
828419.288
584862.989

V (m)
2398899.03
2292716.95
2115826.34
1802528.82
1351119.35
1567414.35
1110694.89

Bng 10: Phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X
ca yu t ma cho cc min kh hu Vit Nam
Min

Thng
I

M1

M2

IV

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

-0.915

-0.707

VII

-0.791

-0.990

0.373

IV

0.447

VII

0.890

0.588

Bng 11: Phng trnh hi qui hm cu trc trong cc thng I, IV, VII, X
ca yu t nhit cho cc min kh hu Vit Nam
Min

Thng
I

M1

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

-0.402

IV

-0.388

VII

-0.893

Khng t

-0.856

Khng t

Min

Thng
I

M2

2.4.

Phng trnh hi quy

hm cu trc

H s R

F so vi F
(
)

0.971

IV

0.821

VII

0.962

0.997

Xy dng li trm kh tng gim st BKH

T kt qu xc nh trm kh tng phc v gim st BKH, ti xut

li trm kh tng gim st BKH nh hnh sau:

Hnh 1: Li trm kh tng gim st BKH trn lnh th Vit Nam

3. Kt lun
Qua nghin cu ny, ti a ra mt s nhn xt nh sau:
-

a ra c s khoa hc v thc tin r rng, ng n cho vic xy dng

li trm kh tng gim st BKH;

Bc u xy dng c b tiu ch la chn trm kh tng gim st

BKH;

Xc nh c cc trm kh tng gim st BKH cho 7 vng kh hu

thuc lnh th nc ta trn c s cc trm kh tng hin c;

xut c li trm kh tng gim st BKH i vi min kh hu trn

lnh th nc ta.