Using Daily Records to Evaluate Stream Trends in Wisconsin

Ron C. Chester and Dale K. Splinter

Introduction
In 2012 a study was completed examining annual streamflow records in the state of Wisconsin. Statistical analysis of historical discharge records over 50 years illustrated spatial variability in streamflow trends; these findings largely mimicked suggested trends in precipitation in a study that was published by the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) . The current study proposed an augmentation to the prior and argues that streamflow trends can be more accurately examined using daily discharge records rather than annual discharge records. For this reason a study was devised to analyze daily averages (at least 9,131 records) instead of annual (at least 50 years of records) per location. In addition, the study examined trends Fig 1. WICCI Precipitation Map over numerous short and long term time intervals (2011-1987, 2011-1962, 2011-1937, 1986-1962 and 1961-1937). The significance of this study not only argues for an increased understanding of Wisconsins waterways, but for the statistical methods applied to trend analysis.

Department of Geography and Geology University of WisconsinWhitewater

Methods
Discharge data is provided by the USGS Real Time discharge database on the web (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/wi/nwis/rt) River gauges were studied that had at least 9,131, 18,262, and 27,393 days of consecutive data, up to the most recent year (2011) High and low flow rates (90th and 10th) were calculated per year with the aforementioned daily data Data for each location was stored and analysed using Microsoft Excel (Xlstat) Statistical significance of discharge history was completed using the Mann-Kendall formula with an alpha value of 0.05 Graphical representation of the data was completed using ArcMap

Conclusion
The use of daily discharge rates provide a more accurate, conservative estimation of discharge trends. The partitioning of time scale statistics is intimately tied to the bias of the statistician; however, the use of as many data points as possible is not a utopian solution as short term trends can be lost. Trends in the last 25 years are not being witnessed uniformly in the extreme percentiles.

Acknowledgements
Completion of this project was made possible by funding from the Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship, sponsored by UW-Whitewater Undergraduate Research Program.

Results
9,131 Days
(25 Years)

9,131 Days
(25 Years) (1987-2011)

18,262 Days
(50 Years) (1962-2011)

27,393 Days
(75 Years) (1937-2011)

18,262 Days
(50 Years)

27,393 Days
(75 Years)

Mann-Kendall

90th Percentile

(1987-2011)

(1962-1986)

(1937-1961)

10th Percentile

9,131 Days
(25 Years)

9,131 Days
(25 Years)

9,131 Days
(25 Years)

Fig 2. The figure above illustrates the findings of the Mann-Kendall trend test. Direction arrows indicate increasing and decreasing trends while a dot represents locations that showed no statistically significant change. Juxtaposition of both long (top row) and short (bottom row) term trends show the delicacy of time series testing; notice the stark contrast in the middle two maps.

Fig 3. The figure above illustrates discharge trends in the 90th and 10th percentiles. In the last 25 years, discharge trends in the northern part of the state are not being seen uniformly in the extreme flows; contrast this to the southern region where similar trends are being seen throughout all flows. This suggests heterogeneity in the driving forces governing discharge trends across the state.