BP Energy Outlook 2030

China Insights

China will remain the worlds largest energy consumer and become the worlds largest energy importer. Here are a few reasons why:
Chinese energy production rises by 46%. Chinas share of global energy production increases marginally from 20% to 21% in 2030. Fossil fuel production increases by 24% with gas (+182%) and coal (+20) offsetting oil (-9%). Demand for all fossil fuels expand led by gas (+283%), oil (+73%), and coal (+34%) as nuclear and renewables surge over 1000%. Coal will account for a third of net energy demand growth with oil and gas each contributing 18%. Coal will remain the leading fuel in power generation, but its share will decline from 81% today to 60% in 2030 as nuclear rises to 12%. Industry remains the largest final energy consumer of all sectors, but sees the slowest growth of 60%, causing its share in final energy demand to drop. China accounts for 31% of global CO2 emissions by 2030, with per capita emissions on track to catch up with the OECD average. China overtakes the US to become the worlds largest oil consumer by 2025 and Russia by 2027 to become the second largest gas consumer. Chinese energy consumption grows by 72%. China contributes 43% of the net increase in global consumption as its share rises from 21% today to 27% in 2030. Energy consumed in power generation rises by 93%; energy demand in transport rises by 118%. Coal remains the leading fuel in Chinese energy demand but falls from 71% today to 55% in 2030 as gas doubles its share and oil is unchanged. Oil remains dominant in the transport sector as its share slips from 92% in 2011 to 90% in 2030 as the share of gas increases to 6%. Renewables demand will grow by 1100% but achieve only a 5% market share by 2030. Fossil fuels account for 82% of Chinese energy consumption in 2030, down from 93% in 2011. Tight oil output rises to 0.5 Mb/d by 2030 (13% of total) while shale gas hits 6 Bcf/d (22% of total). Import dependence will rise to 20% of consumption from todays level of 6% as China overtakes the US to become the worlds biggest energy importer by 2015.

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